Irene roars into life; may become the season's first hurricane
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life this evening, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm was finishing up its mission when it suddenly came across a region with intense thunderstorms and surface winds of 50 mph. The aircraft found that a center of circulation had barely closed off on the southwest edge of this region, though the plane found almost no winds from the west around the circulation center. The 6:10pm EDT center fix found a central pressure of 1007mb, which is quite high for the observed 50 mph winds. Dry air to the north and west is slowing development, as well as moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Infrared satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm is poorly organized, with no evidence of spiral bands. The center of Irene is expected to cross over the Caribbean island of Dominica early Sunday morning, but the heaviest thunderstorms lie to the north of the center, and will affect Guadeloupe, Antigua, and St. Kitts and Nevis.
Figure 1. Evening satellite image of Irene.
The computer models have shifted southwards since yesterday, and now take Irene south of Puerto Rico on Monday, and along the south shore of the Dominican Republic on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Irene should pass near or over southern Haiti, Eastern Cuba, and Jamaica. On Wednesday and Thursday, the models agree that a trough of low pressure will dip down over the Eastern U.S., which is likely to turn Irene to the north. The exact timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. We can expect that Irene will impact Central Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Florida Keys on Thursday, but it is uncertain whether Irene's turn to the north will take the storm into the Gulf of Mexico or not. Irene most reminds me of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Irene will be battling dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots through Sunday, and it will take the storm 1 - 3 days to build up an eyewall and intensify into a hurricane. Irene is more of a threat than Tropical Storm Emily of early August was, since Irene has closed off a center farther east than Emily did and has more time to organize before encountering Hispaniola. I don't think passage over Hispaniola will destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm, and is likely to be a hurricane by then. However, if Irene follows the NHC forecast, it will have an extended encounter with Hispaniola and Cuba on Tuesday through Wednesday that will probably weaken the storm below hurricane force. Keep in mind that the average error for an official 5-day forecast from NHC for a developed storm is 200 - 250 miles. Irene could easily miss Florida and move up the East Coast and hit North or South Carolina, or pass through the Florida Keys and into Gulf of Mexico, ending up who knows where. Given the uncertainties, this weekend would be a good time to go over your hurricane preparedness if you live anywhere in the Caribbean, Bahamas, or U.S. coast, since Irene could well be paying you a visit as a tropical storm or hurricane sometime in the next week.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on northern Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as the storm tracks westwards at 12 mph. Dissipation is expected Sunday as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
An exceptionally active early part of hurricane season
It's been a strangely hyperactive season for weak storms in the Atlantic so far this year. Tropical Storm Irene is the 9th named storm this year, and its formation date of August 20 ties 2011 with 1936 as the 2nd earliest date for formation of the season's 9th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier date. The first eight storms this year have stayed below hurricane strength, making 2011 the first hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851 to have more than six consecutive tropical storms that did not reach hurricane strength. As I discussed in Friday's post, a major reason for this is the lack of vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic so far this year. We've had a large amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, and the usual amount of dry, dusty air from the Sahara, both helping to keep the atmosphere stable and stop this year's storms from intensifying into hurricanes. Hurricane activity typically ramps up big-time by August 20, with more than 80% of all the hurricanes and 65% of all the tropical storms occurring after that date. At our current pace, 2011 will become the second busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 24 - 27 named storms. There are only 21 names in the list of names for a hurricane season, so we may have to break out the Greek alphabet again in late October this year, as occurred in 2005. Ironically, this was the last time the current set of names was used in the Atlantic, so 16 of this year's 21 names are repeats of 2005. I'm not too happy about seeing another hurricane season challenge the Hurricane Season of 2005 in any way, and let's hope we don't retire another five names this year, like occurred in 2005! With vertical instability much lower this year than in 2005, and that year having already seen one storm (Dennis) retired by this point in the season, I doubt that will happen, though.
Figure 2. The annual cycle of average hurricane frequency in the Atlantic. Historically, about 35% of all the tropical storms and 15% of all the hurricanes will have occurred by August 20.
Invest 98L near the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave near Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, is spreading heavy rains and strong gusty winds to those islands today. So far this morning, top sustained winds measured in the Cape Verde Islands were 23 mph at Mindelo. 98L has a long stretch of ocean to cross before it could affect any land areas. Approximately 70 - 80% of all tropical cyclones that pass this close to the Cape Verde Islands end up curving out to sea and not affecting any other land areas, according to Dr. Bob Hart's excellent historical probability of landfall charts. The latest set of long-range model runs go along with this idea, and I'd be surprised if 98L threatens any land areas.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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i for one like the fact you are willing to take stand on a pattern and stick with it. as i recall they were
all over you when you were discounting emily.
thanks
Well, most people who have NEVER been to Mississippi say the things that he said. It's cool because it just shows their ignorance and I get a good laugh.
I think every weather enthusiast feels adrenaline and excitement from seeing a storm. Despite the (understandably) ornery attitude some display when you make such a statement, I see no reason to get angry at such a notion myself. Despite all of our desires and wishing, ultimately the choice is not ours. Nature will do what it is going to regardless. It isn't like JFV wishing Irene to Miami is actually going to make it happen. If it does, he shouldn't feel bad for it.
But again, it's rather easy to see why most people ARE offended at such an idea. It's terrifying to them, not to mention downright disrespectful in most cases, given that many here have endured losses at the hands of these disasters. I would advise keeping opinions like that to yourself. It is why I do not respect JFV.
I wonder where the new models take Irene vis-a-vis the islands and it seems Florida is still the target down the road- by Friday?
seriously tho, he's just hear to cause a ruckus, no need to waste your time. Night shift is supposed to be the peaceful chill hour let's keep it that way
Ewwww, who says this out of nowhere? You are very mean yo momma need to raide you better---->SLAP!!
Lol...This is pretty funny, JFV.
Reed you seem hellbent on the storm being right on the east coast of florida not sure if you mean riding up I95 or the turnpike...but you are very specific. All some are saying is it is reasonable and possible that it could miss south florida by a bit as it make its turn north. Very possible. Exactly where Irene ends up turning, intensity and of course the ridge all play a role. Oh and not to mention the significant land interaction potential and the wobbles, reformation of center...etc that ALL could play a role in where she ends up. Are you open to a 100 mile error potential in your 5 day forecast?? If you are it could miss Florida, right?
People confuse education with intelligence, you can have one without the other. You make a perfect example!
Education cannot give a person integrity and morals...
Ehh, I wasn't discounting Emily.. I thought she would at the most ramp up to a strong TS/minimal Hurricane and ALMOST make a brief landfall near Miami or South Florida.. Instead, she ended up being a depression after re-emerging from a very bad environment. It seems that Irene will not have it as bad.. Especially when she looks to be well stacked already. Emily was never well stacked.
Yeah, I just ignored it. Pretty sure it's JFV. It always says the same thing about Mississippi and then brings Taz up out of no where.
A little bit further north than that and Irene is really going to ramp up.
Looks good.. Irene also looks to have strengthened into a 60 mph. storm, but they will probably keep her at 50 mph. at 5 a.m.
WTNT24 KNHC 210856
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0900 UTC SUN AUG 21 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE
HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF CABO ENGANO.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND
CULEBRA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF HAITI.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
THE HAITI BORDER
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* DOMINICA
* BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO NORTH OF CABO ENGANO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND
CULEBRA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
000
WTNT43 KNHC 210848
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WERE OBSERVED IN A 0156 UTC TRMM OVERPASS AND
SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER OF HARVEY HAS BEEN MOVING BRISKLY
WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 280/13. THE COVERAGE OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND...BUT THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS ESTIMATED TO BE JUST TO THE WEST OF A REMAINING
CLUSTER ALONG THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...WITH SOME DECELERATION...UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES BY 36 HOURS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS
SCENARIO..ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST NORTH OF THE MODELS
AND BRIEFLY MOVES HARVEY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL TV15...AND IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IF THE CENTER
WAS TO MOVE OVER WATER AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF...IT WOULD LIKELY NOT
BE OFFSHORE LONG ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...
AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING
UNTIL DISSIPATION.
HEAVY RAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 17.7N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 18.1N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 22/0600Z 18.3N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Yeah, pretty much.
Location: 16.4°N 61.3°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: W at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
based on current feeling can he expect problems with heavy rains and or flooding?
I said TS not a Strong Cat 1 or more...I don't want destruction! I saw what Katrina, Ike all those CrAzY storms did. I do NOT want that for me or anyone else, maybe I should have been more specific.
HEAVY RAINS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 61.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF CABO ENGANO.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND
CULEBRA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF HAITI.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD
TO THE HAITI BORDER
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* DOMINICA
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO NORTH OF CABO ENGANO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND
CULEBRA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...REPORTS FROM RADAR...SATELLITE...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND A MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IRENE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON. IRENE COULD APPROACH
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...
240 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND ST. CROIX TONIGHT...AND
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE MONDAY WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
Agreed..
lol okay.
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011
...IRENE LASHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SQUALLS AND
HEAVY RAINS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 61.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF CABO ENGANO.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND
CULEBRA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF HAITI.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD
TO THE HAITI BORDER
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* DOMINICA
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO NORTH OF CABO ENGANO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND
CULEBRA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...REPORTS FROM RADAR...SATELLITE...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND A MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IRENE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON. IRENE COULD APPROACH
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...
240 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND ST. CROIX TONIGHT...AND
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE MONDAY WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
Still no change in strength. Recon will be in the storm in a few hours. I won't be awake for the live info, though. Lol.
That's still the 2AM track...
The life of a troll, especially those who do it on a daily basis, is really quite pitiful.
That's the 2am cone.
I think it'll be a bit east from there, but it's always best to watch and keep an eye on Irene just in case she makes a move more towards the west, but not too far west. TX high/weakness just won't let it go any further.
Lotsa comments in the 600s, 700s, 800 and 900ss. And the exact same thing.
WTNT44 KNHC 210859
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011
SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM GUADELOUPE INDICATE THAT IRENE
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE CENTER REDEVELOPED
ABOUT 60 NMI FARTHER NORTH INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A
NARROW WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS BEEN ENTRAINED INTO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN QUADRANTS...WHICH HAS ERODED SOME OF THE INNER CORE
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB. THE NEXT HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO RECONNOITER IRENE WILL BE 1200 UTC.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/18 DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION. 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA FROM THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND BERMUDA INDICATE A FAIRLY STOUT
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
IRENE. THE RESULTANT MODERATE EASTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP
THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...FLORIDA...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW IRENE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA AND
EMERGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. ALL OF THE
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING TRACK SCENARIO
EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS. THOSE LATTER TWO MODELS KEEP
IRENE ON A WESTERLY TRACK SOUTH OF CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...DESPITE THEIR DEVELOPING A SIMILAR BREAK IN THE RIDGE
AXIS OVER FLORIDA BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AND ARE CONSIDERED OUTLIERS AT
THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...
AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT OF LOW
SHEAR AND A MID-OCEANIC TROUGH TO THE EAST ACTING AS A MASS SINK
FOR THE OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INTERACTION IRENE HAS
WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND WHAT THE INNER CORE
OF THE CYCLONE BECOMES AFTER IT EMERGES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
CUBA IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. ONCE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...HOWEVER...
IRENE WILL HAVE AT LEAST 24 HOURS OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST WATER IN
THE ATLANTIC TO TAP INTO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO LAND EFFECTS AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 16.4N 61.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 17.0N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 17.5N 66.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 18.0N 69.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 18.6N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0600Z 20.3N 75.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/0600Z 22.8N 78.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 26/0600Z 26.1N 80.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT OF LOW
SHEAR AND A MID-OCEANIC TROUGH TO THE EAST ACTING AS A MASS SINK
FOR THE OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INTERACTION IRENE HAS
WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND WHAT THE INNER CORE
OF THE CYCLONE BECOMES AFTER IT EMERGES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
CUBA IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. ONCE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...HOWEVER...
IRENE WILL HAVE AT LEAST 24 HOURS OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST WATER IN
THE ATLANTIC TO TAP INTO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO LAND EFFECTS AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS.
Gah... /me fails
I'll be up at 8 a.m. I did rest while the 00Zs were being ran. So I'm gonna hit the sheets for another few hours after I see the UPDATED track.
Thats the old one.....
120H 26/0600Z 26.1N 80.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
Lol, I'm gonna try to take a nap now. Have an alarm prepped for 7:30a.m to catch Recon.
12H 21/1800Z 17.0N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 17.5N 66.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 18.0N 69.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 18.6N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0600Z 20.3N 75.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/0600Z 22.8N 78.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 26/0600Z 26.1N 80.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
85 mph. INLAND in Florida probably..
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