TD 8 forms; 97L a potential threat to the Caribbean and U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 19. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:30 (GMT)

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Tropical Depression Eight formed last night near the coast of Honduras, and is headed westwards towards a landfall in Belize on Saturday. TD 8 is a small storm, so will impact a relatively small area of northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, all of Belize, and southern portions of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. TD 8 has just enough room between its center and the coast of Honduras to intensify into a moderate strength tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds before landfall. It is very unlikely TD8 has the time or room to intensify into a hurricane; NHC gave the storm just a 7% chance of making it to hurricane strength in their 11am EDT wind probability forecast. Should TD8 make it to tropical storm strength, it would be called Harvey.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 8.

Invest 97L likely to become a tropical storm next week, could threaten the U.S.
A tropical wave near 14°N 48°W, about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving westward near 20 mph. This wave, designated Invest 97L by NHC yesterday, has seen a marked increase in its heavy thunderstorm activity this morning, but dry air to the north and west is slowing development. An impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops, but the storm is at least a day away from forming a well-defined surface circulation. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C, about 2°C above the threshold needed to support a tropical storm, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L.

The computer models have shown an unusual amount of agreement in developing 97L over the past few days, and all the ingredients seem to be in place for a tropical storm to form by Monday or Tuesday as 97L crosses the Northeast Caribbean. The atmosphere is expected to be moister over the Caribbean, wind shear will remain a low 5 - 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures will increase to near 29°C. The main impediment for development will likely be two-fold: too much dry, stable air, and proximity to land.

As seen in Figure 3, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Atlantic this year, due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. This stable air has been largely responsible for the fact that none of our seven tropical storms so far this year has made it to hurricane strength, despite the presence of sea surface temperatures that are the 3rd warmest on record across the tropical Atlantic. Tropical Storm Emily in early August encountered problems with dry air when it crossed the Northeast Caribbean, and 97L may have similar difficulties.


Figure 3. Vertical instability of the atmosphere during 2011 in the Caribbean (left) and tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa (right.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Observed vertical instability (blue line) has been much lower than the climatological average from previous years (black line), due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, inhibiting tropical storm development this year. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.

Encounters with land will be another potential major problem for 97L. Most of the computer models take 97L near or over Puerto Rico Sunday night, then very close to or over mountainous Hispaniola Monday night through Tuesday. It is unlikely that 97L will be stronger than a 55 mph tropical storm when it encounters these islands, and passage over the islands could severely disrupt the storm. However, if 97L takes a path just south or north of Hispaniola, the potential exists for the storm to intensify into a hurricane.

There will be moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the north of the islands early next week, so a path just to the south of the Dominican Republic and Haiti would be more likely to let 97L intensify into a hurricane. A west-northwest motion is likely for 97L through Wednesday, which would bring the storm to the vicinity of Jamaica-Central Cuba-the Central Bahamas on Wednesday. On Wednesday and Thursday, the models agree that a trough of low pressure will dip down over the Eastern U.S., which is likely to turn 97L to the north. The exact timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when 97L will turn to the north. The best model for predicting the timing and strength of such troughs over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model), and this model currently brings 97L into the Florida Keys on Thursday night next week. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models.

Remember that a 7-day forecast by even our best model will be off by an average of over 700 miles, so it is too early to tell what part of the U.S. might be most at risk from a strike by 97L. This weekend would be a good time to go over your hurricane preparedness.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L off the coast of Africa.

Invest 98L near the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west to west-northwestward at 10 - 15 mph. This wave, designated Invest 98L by NHC yesterday, is large and well-organized, with a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. 98L will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rains to the Cape Verde Islands today and Saturday as the storm skirts to the south. So far this morning, top sustained winds measured in the islands were 24 mph at Mindelo. Water temperatures are warm, near 27 - 28°C, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, so 98L should continue to organize today. NHC gave the storm a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression in their 8am advisory. Once 98L passes to the west of the Cape Verde Islands, it has a long stretch of ocean to cross before it could affect any other land areas. Approximately 70 - 80% of all tropical cyclones that pass this close to the Cape Verde Islands end up curving out to sea and not affecting any other land areas, according to Dr. Bob Hart's excellent historical probability of landfall charts. The latest set of long-range model runs go along with this idea, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Jeff Masters

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4592. JBirdFireMedic
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 18:31 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 10.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 247
4591. brianc
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 17:45 (GMT)
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Im sure some will recall after Katrina crossed floridaand was a TS, How long did it take her to get really ramped up again? Of course crossing Florida is not the same as crossing Cuba,depending on speed and pool of hot water north of cuba????????????


Katrina was actually intensifying as it crossed Miami-Dade county...I don't know if it ever lost strength while crossing Florida.
Member Since: 17.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24
4590. HurricaneHunterJoe
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 17:04 (GMT)
Quoting P451:


It is a little difficult to ascertain a heading because of the ever growing size of the mid and upper levels. It's best to look at a long loop of the system to try to figure out if it's changing course.

Here's 30 hours (1 hour per frame) of 97L. Certainly a WNW motion seems evident but it has also expanded in size possibly causing a little trickery of the mind here.



The surface center had just become prominent around midnight last night - finally firing convection right next to it. That is what I might try to watch - the smaller blob within the larger scope - to figure on a direction.



Here, you can see it appears to just be a westerly heading. The center is located just east of the blob.

You can also see an outflow boundary head to the WSW in this loop indicating dry air is still being ingested.
West 275
Member Since: 18.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570
4589. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:51 (GMT)
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52230
4588. Clearwater1
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:42 (GMT)
Now I'm just speculating, and mentally preparing, but if you watch the latest gfs run, (12z) and it verifies, where in the FL would one evacuate too?

Because, GFS has it come up the middle of the state, and even jogs over to catch far eastern pan handler's. A little something for everyone from the Islands to NYC and beyond. Wow!

Let's hope it does not pan out or hold it's intensity. Is that even possible?

But with this stated, it has to end up somewhere, and no one seems to be thinking an eleventh hour swing out to sea. Right?
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1547
4587. weatherh98
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:31 (GMT)
""

Heavy storms in the strongest part, but we need to get a mid level circ to the surface
Member Since: 17.06.2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
4586. HurricaneHunterJoe
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:30 (GMT)
Quoting Clearwater1:


That's what I was thinking. The GFS keeps it pretty strong, even after crossing Hispaniola, and Cuba. I know it takes that into account, but I just don't see it maintaining that strength depicted. Now, if it tracks just a little further west (or east) then heads north, a different ball game.


Im sure some will recall after Katrina crossed floridaand was a TS, How long did it take her to get really ramped up again? Of course crossing Florida is not the same as crossing Cuba,depending on speed and pool of hot water north of cuba????????????
Member Since: 18.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570
4585. emcf30
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:26 (GMT)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I think he means nice in a sarcastic way.

If that's what he meant, My Bad
Member Since: 7.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
4584. Clearwater1
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:26 (GMT)
So far, pretty much the same run as the 06z. Maybe a little less intense? re gfs 12z
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1547
4583. barotropic
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:26 (GMT)
Quoting Nolehead:
12Z GFS coming in Ivan-low with 97L into the Caribbean.

yep and dont like it whenever there that low...either track due west or in the gom..only time will tell.


I have no idea where you came uo with this. The 850mb vortex runn shows the circulation actually rather north in the islands coming in and barely missing puerto rico. Going thru the islands and exiting, hitting S. Florida. Just observing the model...run which is actually slightly north and east of the last run.
Member Since: 22.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
4581. Brennen
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:20 (GMT)
Can someone tell me how to read this or where I can go to figure out how to read this?

Quoting Tazmanian:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 201500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 20 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-081

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 21/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 21/1100Z
D. 15.8N 61.8W
E. 21/1130Z TO 21/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 22/0000Z,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLONE
C. 21/2300Z
D. 16.5N 65.00W
E. 21/2330Z TO 21/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM IF STILL A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE G-IV SURVEILANCE MISSION FOR 23/0000Z.
3. REMARK: IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION IS NOT FOUND ON TODAY'S
MISSION NEAR THE ANTILLES, THE 21/1200Z MISSION WILL
SLIP TO A 21/1800Z INVESTIGATIVE MISSION
Member Since: 17.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
4580. dfwstormwatch
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:19 (GMT)
i will continue the models on the new blog
Member Since: 31.07.2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 753
4579. HurricaneHunterJoe
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:19 (GMT)
Quoting muddertracker:
Harvey just couldn't find his way into the gulf to bring Texas some rain....awesome...
Moving foreward we don't want a storm..too destructive...like I said...awesome...
maybe 97L slows down,missed the weakness and heads to texas....who knows?
Member Since: 18.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570
4578. atmoaggie
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:19 (GMT)
Quoting GerlindeEspinosa:
Do steroids attract Fat Ants?
Ant-rage.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
4577. Patrap
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:18 (GMT)
I dont feel prepared..
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125530
4576. atmoaggie
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:18 (GMT)
Quoting KennyNebraska:
NEW BLOG!
new blog
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
4574. robj144
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:18 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:
Cloud tops warmed not-insignificantly, relative to a couple of hours ago:



Does non-insignificantly mean significantly? ;)
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
4573. nocaneindy
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:18 (GMT)
Quoting weatherh98:
""

low shear across the basin


Yeah and it looks like the anti-cyclone that was displaced to the southeast of 97L yesterday has caught up to it as well. That should help it throw off the dry air and any heavier shear areas it may encounter as long as they move in tandem.
Member Since: 21.09.2007 Posts: 34 Comments: 515
4572. CybrTeddy
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:18 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
4571. KennyNebraska
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:17 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 7.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
4570. atmoaggie
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:17 (GMT)
Cloud tops warmed not-insignificantly, relative to a couple of hours ago:

Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
4569. 7544
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:17 (GMT)
gfs fla again watch
Member Since: 6.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
4567. sarahjola
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:16 (GMT)
stormwatcherci- i got an answer from someone. thanks!
Member Since: 10.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291
4566. CanesfanatUT
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:16 (GMT)
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


might attract fat ants.


LOL - that is hilarious
Member Since: 3.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
4565. dfwstormwatch
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:16 (GMT)

108 hours system moves wnw along north cuba coast
Member Since: 31.07.2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 753
4564. WeatherNerdPR
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:15 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:
Well, I wouldn't say that. It is continuously calibrating and uses the on-board radar for corrections.

The boundaries of higher rainfall is simply where the data cannot be trusted and, sometimes, wild fluctuations can happen.

(Not to mention the notion of measuring winds of an outflow boundary near intense convection, not representative of sustained winds in a TC).

Hmm...interesting stuff.
Member Since: 7.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
4563. stormwatcherCI
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:15 (GMT)
Quoting sarahjola:
what is going on at 14n 60 west? could the llc reform there? tia! i will assume that this is impossible since no one wants to touch it. lol
Go to Levi32's blog update. He explains it perfectly.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
4562. weatherh98
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:15 (GMT)
""

low shear across the basin
Member Since: 17.06.2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
4561. Goldenblack
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:14 (GMT)
I could not agree with this statement any more....it is definitely coming! lol

Quoting Hurricanes101:
funny thing about these models and this site


despite all of this consistency from the models the last few days, all it will take is one run of one model to either kill the system off or bring it into Florida as a weak system; then some will come in here and question the models and say this storm is being hyped lol

you know its coming, just preparing all of you for the inevitable
Member Since: 28.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 706
4560. WeatherNerdPR
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:14 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, August 20th, with Video

Hi Levi.
Member Since: 7.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
4559. atmoaggie
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:14 (GMT)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

So, SFMR screwed up? lol
Well, I wouldn't say that. It is continuously calibrating and uses the on-board radar for corrections.

The boundaries of higher rainfall is simply where the data cannot be trusted and, sometimes, wild fluctuations can happen.

(Not to mention the notion of measuring winds of an outflow boundary near intense convection, not representative of sustained winds in a TC).
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
4558. sarahjola
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:14 (GMT)
Quoting sarahjola:
what is going on at 14n 60 west? could the llc reform there? tia! i will assume that this is impossible since no one wants to touch it. lol
thanks!
Member Since: 10.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291
4557. dfwstormwatch
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:13 (GMT)

99 hours out system heading north towards the bahamas...
Member Since: 31.07.2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 753
4556. Hurricanes101
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:13 (GMT)
funny thing about these models and this site


despite all of this consistency from the models the last few days, all it will take is one run of one model to either kill the system off or bring it into Florida as a weak system; then some will come in here and question the models and say this storm is being hyped lol

you know its coming, just preparing all of you for the inevitable
Member Since: 10.03.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
4555. wxhatt
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:13 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, August 20th, with Video


Good Morning Levi!

Looking forward to your input.

:)

Member Since: 5.10.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 838
4554. Patrap
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:13 (GMT)
TS Harvey almost looks to be nestling in a Annular Way in Place.


Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125530
4552. daddyjames
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:12 (GMT)
Good morning, and a thankyou Levi32
Member Since: 25.06.2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
4551. Tazmanian
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:12 (GMT)
000
NOUS42 KNHC 201500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 20 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-081

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 21/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 21/1100Z
D. 15.8N 61.8W
E. 21/1130Z TO 21/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 22/0000Z,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLONE
C. 21/2300Z
D. 16.5N 65.00W
E. 21/2330Z TO 21/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM IF STILL A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE G-IV SURVEILANCE MISSION FOR 23/0000Z.
3. REMARK: IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION IS NOT FOUND ON TODAY'S
MISSION NEAR THE ANTILLES, THE 21/1200Z MISSION WILL
SLIP TO A 21/1800Z INVESTIGATIVE MISSION
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114049
4550. TropicalWeatherGrl88
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:12 (GMT)
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


might attract fat ants.


lol
Member Since: 17.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 216
4549. weatherh98
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:12 (GMT)
""
Member Since: 17.06.2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
4548. sarahjola
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:11 (GMT)
what is going on at 14n 60 west? could the llc reform there? tia! i will assume that this is impossible since no one wants to touch it. lol
Member Since: 10.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291
4547. wxhatt
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:11 (GMT)
Quoting sarahjola:
what is going on at 14n 60 west? could the llc reform there? tia!


actually, the GFS model would like to follow the convetion reformation deal, to the north, say closer to 15N.
Member Since: 5.10.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 838
4545. stormwatcherCI
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:11 (GMT)
Quoting emcf30:


If that were to be true, I certainly see nothing nice about that.
I think he means nice in a sarcastic way.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
4544. WeatherNerdPR
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:11 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:
The SFMR algorithm has big corrections for areas of hard rain (it does actually measure the roughness of the sea surface, certainly influenced by a significant rainfall).
If the plane moves from an area of little to no rain to an intense rainfall, it *could* yield that result, and highly erroneously.

So, SFMR screwed up? lol
Member Since: 7.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
4543. angiest
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:11 (GMT)
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Too late. Time to cash in.


Ever heard of Humberto?

A small cyclone, the storm continued to organize quickly as it turned north-northeastward, while radar imagery suggested the formation of an eye by early on September 13.[9] Based on reports from Hurricane Hunters, Humberto was upgraded to a hurricane at 0515 UTC on September 13, while located about 15 miles (20 km) off the coast of Texas.[10] The hurricane made landfall a few miles to the east of High Island at around 0700 UTC. A well-defined eye was maintained with strong convection around it, and Hurricane Hunters reported sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h) about two hours after landfall.[11] However, post-storm analysis later determined that the winds were a bit stronger—about 90 mph (150 km/h).[2]

Small storms can spin up fast near the coast. Not saying that will happen to Harvey, but hardly unprecedented.
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
4542. southernbell72
20. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:11 (GMT)
nice link pat
Member Since: 19.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 72

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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