Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 17. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:26 (GMT)

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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3110. TomTaylor
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:47 (GMT)
x
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
3109. TomTaylor
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:44 (GMT)
NEW BLOG ENTRY

ay
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
3108. JBirdFireMedic
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:39 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 10.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 247
3107. Floodman
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:17 (GMT)
Quoting AussieStorm:

Seriously!!!! what makes you ask that question????


Either a lack of medication or a close proximity to stormtop...
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
3106. Floodman
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:14 (GMT)
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey mate, How you going. How's the old back going?


Going good...90 to nothing!

The back is great; I had a spectacular surgeon and I hammered my way through recovery and PT. I'm at 98% of where I was prior to the back being really bad, which is amazing, considering the shape the rest of me is in...if I died tomorrow my back would keep on going another 20 years

LOL

And you? How are you doing?
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
3105. Floodman
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:09 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:


The Floodman is a wise owl,,Ferris say's.


All of that and I have some really spectacular friends too...thanks, brother!
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
3104. Floodman
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:08 (GMT)
Quoting Slamguitar:
Man, I go out for a few groceries to pass some time till recon gets there, and the HH barely moved. It's gonna be another half hour until the HH gets to 93L's environment. Guess that means I got time to cook some of those groceries. Honey ham anyone?


And some eggs maybe? Hey, you know waht? Slide over and let Flood make you some of my world famous french toast...where's the nutmeg?
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
3102. Slamguitar
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:57 (GMT)
Man, I go out for a few groceries to pass some time till recon gets there, and the HH barely moved. It's gonna be another half hour until the HH gets to 93L's environment. Guess that means I got time to cook some of those groceries. Honey ham anyone?
Member Since: 2.07.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1176
3099. Barbados
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:35 (GMT)
Looks like 97L is already 14N. By the time is gets to the islands looks like 18N-20N maybe even higher depending on strength at that time.

Member Since: 9.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
3098. wxmobilejim
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:28 (GMT)
Quoting tropicfreak:
Wait has 97L already been designated??
yes
Member Since: 11.05.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
3097. hulazigzag
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:27 (GMT)
very boring season so far. some barely storms need more action
Member Since: 24.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 240
3095. odinslightning
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:09 (GMT)
one advantage to being in the south is Golden Flake chips. Frito Lay cant match up. lol.
Member Since: 3.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 475
3094. stormwatcherCI
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:09 (GMT)
Quoting tropicfreak:



No he was talking about 93L, and he quoted someone's post about 93L's lifespan so far.
Ok. Sorry, my mistake. I am at work so mostly lurking on a verrry slow computer.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
3093. tropicfreak
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:07 (GMT)
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Who cares, she's over the mountains to the Pacific. It's like watching the ball game you've recorded, after you already know who has won.



Apologize, did not read it carefully enough.
Member Since: 2.09.2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
3092. OracleDeAtlantis
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:06 (GMT)
Quoting tropicfreak:


Have to strongly disagree, convection has consolidated, pressures are dropping, I see no reason why this wouldn't be declared TD 8 or Harvey later on today, only thing that stands in the way is recon and NHC.
Who cares, she's over the mountains to the Pacific. It's like watching the ball game you've recorded, after you already know who has won.
Member Since: 27.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 489
3091. tropicfreak
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:06 (GMT)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
He was speaking about the one in the Pacific I believe.



No he was talking about 93L, and he quoted someone's post about 93L's lifespan so far.
Member Since: 2.09.2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
3090. Floodman
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:06 (GMT)
Quoting tropicfreak:


I do the same thing, and apparently some people have a problem with it.


Mistakenly hoping that some pearl of wisdom wil fall from his lips, apparently
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
3089. kshipre1
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:06 (GMT)
ok, thanks. so, in short, you are indicating a recurve as of now is a very low chance

that is scary. upper level pattern shaping like 2004 path storms... High stationed in the west atlantic with storms steering right into Florida

once can only hope the circulation goes over land and mountains long enough but for some reason I have a little heightened fear about this one

maybe I am crazy because it is still an invest and not a storm

Member Since: 12.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
3088. Neapolitan
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:05 (GMT)
NEW BLOG ENTRY

Sorry; just didn't want any to miss it. ;-)
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13260
3087. HurricaneDean07
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:04 (GMT)
The storms this season that came close to hurricane status:
1. Gert~ nearly closed Eyewall, though couldn't get winds high enough

2. Arlene~ Had winds ramping up, though didnt have enough time over water to develop an eyewall

3. Cindy~ Developed an Eye like feature and it appeared to have an eyewall though not fully closed, and winds only reached 60 Mph

4. Bret~ Developed an "Eye like" feature though there was now indication of an eyewall, and winds only peaked around 65 mph. In addition the Eye feature fell apart quickly after the formation of the Eye

5. Harvey could make a run for Hurricane Status though I put the odds of achieving hurricane status at around 30%

6. 97L Could be a threat to become a hurricane sometime Early next week

Don, Emily, and Franklin all did not even near hurricane status whatsoever...

Don~ 50 Mph, very disorganized
Emily~ 50 Mph, had organization troubles along with Dry air, and rugged terrain of Hispanoila/Cuba
Franklin~ 45 Mph, was a shallow warm core system, and had little time to strengthen before becoming extratropical
Member Since: 3.10.2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
3086. AussieStorm
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:04 (GMT)
Quoting CorneliaMarie:
When is 93L set to hit New Orleans?

TIA

Seriously!!!! what makes you ask that question????
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
3085. stormwatcherCI
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:04 (GMT)
Quoting tropicfreak:


Have to strongly disagree, convection has consolidated, pressures are dropping, I see no reason why this wouldn't be declared TD 8 or Harvey later on today, only thing that stands in the way is recon and NHC.
He was speaking about the one in the Pacific I believe.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
3084. RitaEvac
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:03 (GMT)
lol, looks like Rick Perry's statement about global warming is having affects on the market.

10,972.76
-437.45 (-3.83%
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
3083. AussieStorm
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:02 (GMT)
Time: 14:49:00Z
Coordinates: 16.85N 67.7167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.6 mb (~ 11.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,729 meters (~ 25,358 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 416 meters (~ 1,365 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 42° at 5 knots (From the NE at ~ 5.8 mph)
Air Temp: -18.7°C (~ -1.7°F)
Dew Pt: -22.8°C (~ -9.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 6 knots (~ 6.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
3082. beell
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:02 (GMT)
Quoting kshipre1:
accuweather mentioning that system in central atlantic could possibly recurve in or around Bahamas

that would be great news but again, I am stunned. With a High that big projected by the end of next week, what the heck could barrell through that thing!


I held that hope for a while. But no longer. We have had a weak one the last 2-3 weeks. The A/B ridge is now being modeled almost as strong (height-wise) as the one setting over Texas. And this would apply to almost any degree of storm organization. A deep layer ridge.
Member Since: 11.09.2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15301
3080. tropicfreak
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:01 (GMT)
Wait has 97L already been designated??
Member Since: 2.09.2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
3079. AussieStorm
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:01 (GMT)
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 14:46Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 01

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Thursday, 14:40Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 17.1N 66.9W
Location: 106 miles (171 km) to the SSW (211°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -19°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,590 geopotential meters
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
3078. Patrap
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:01 (GMT)
Hard to miss that Blue, "Rules of the Road" icon right bove the comment box below.

Read it sometimes.

And maybe check out the community standards as well.


Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125530
3077. kshipre1
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:01 (GMT)
am curious to see the model consensus on direction and intensity as we get into next week

incredible global agreement so far on a florida hit... not good

not panicked yet but can not recall a system that has had consistent track record agreement on cyclone formation and potential landfall point

i tell ya... when the GFS and EURO come into agreement, that could mean something

then again, maybe I am wrong
Member Since: 12.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
3076. tropicfreak
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:00 (GMT)
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I see outflow boundaries, which means she's sucking up some dry air.

A little help from the MJO, won't come in time. This one is bye bye to Hawaii.


Have to strongly disagree, convection has consolidated, pressures are dropping, I see no reason why this wouldn't be declared TD 8 or Harvey later on today, only thing that stands in the way is recon and NHC.
Member Since: 2.09.2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
3075. yesterway
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:59 (GMT)
Accuwx video discussion regarding current African wave to follow Hurricane Donna's path making east coast landfall next week as Hurricane or strong T.S.

Link
Member Since: 26.10.2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 363
3074. AussieStorm
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:59 (GMT)
Quoting Floodman:



Hey mate, How you going. How's the old back going?
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
3073. Patrap
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:59 (GMT)
Quoting Floodman:


Use the ignore function...it works perfectly. I should know. Everytime this guys rears his head, I add his latest handle to the list.


The Floodman is a wise owl,,Ferris say's.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125530
3071. xtremeweathertracker
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:58 (GMT)
Quoting tropicfreak:
Levi, Misswx, miami, any experts on here think once Harvey develops, could it make it to hurricane status?

If 93L continues on its westward to west northwestward track it will start interacting with the northern coast of Honduras in 24 to 36 hours which could limit intensity; however if it turns slightly more northwestward toward Belize it misses the interaction and its time over warm water increases dramatically. It is approximately 600 miles from the center of 93L to the coast of Belize!!!
Member Since: 31.05.2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 566
3070. Dennis8
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:58 (GMT)
Quoting JasonCoolMan2012:
I dont like this at all!


THANKS!
Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
3069. tropicfreak
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:58 (GMT)
Quoting Floodman:


Use the ignore function...it works perfectly. I should know. Everytime this guys rears his head, I add his latest handle to the list.


I do the same thing, and apparently some people have a problem with it.
Member Since: 2.09.2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
3067. tropicfreak
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:57 (GMT)
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Jrweatherman,
Don't jump the gun yet, there is still no major details on possible Harvey, and those are key to knowing if Hurricane status is achievable with Harvey... My guess is a 70 Mph storms unless something were to occur... RI


Which most certainly wouldn't be out of the question, especially in the NW Caribbean.
Member Since: 2.09.2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
3066. 7544
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:57 (GMT)
97l is shaping up good
Member Since: 6.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
3064. Floodman
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:56 (GMT)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


hey Jason please stop it. It may seem funny to you but to other its not don't worry we will have a renumber soon and when it happen you can post it till your computer breaks but until then please please please stop please


Use the ignore function...it works perfectly. I should know. Everytime this guys rears his head, I add his latest handle to the list.
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
3063. OracleDeAtlantis
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:56 (GMT)
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
For a little fun, evolution of 93L over the last three days:

8/16 1815Z:


8/17 1315Z:


8/18 1415Z:


I see consolidation and organization.
I see outflow boundaries, which means she's sucking up some dry air.

A little help from the MJO, won't come in time. This one is bye bye to Hawaii.
Member Since: 27.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 489
3062. PaulinJax
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:56 (GMT)
93L should be coming close to a bouy 17.003 N 81.501 W

It does seem to be tracking a little farther to the north
Member Since: 3.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 52
3061. WxLogic
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:56 (GMT)
12Z NAM:



500MB:

Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
3060. Gumbogator
18. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:56 (GMT)
The annual drought map is a good source but, it doesn't even come close to telling the harsh reality of where the true drought is ?? From the "Golden Triangle"(SE TX) to SW and Central LA to NW LA over the last 20 months there are places like Newton TX, De Ridder LA, Orange TX and Alexandria LA that are -37 to -49 inches of rain down since January 2010 thru Mid August 2011 !! Am praying for any tropical system to break the climate cycle that has been so badd****
Member Since: 21.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 106

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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