Tropical Storm Franklin forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 13. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:41 (GMT)

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Tropical Storm Franklin, the sixth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, formed this morning in the open Atlantic north of Bermuda. The usual date of formation for the 6th storm of the year is September 8, so we are well ahead of climatology. However, the usual date for the first hurricane of the season is August 10, and we still have not had a hurricane yet this year. All six of this year's storms have been tropical storms, making 2011 the first season since 2002 when that has occurred. Franklin is headed eastwards out sea, away from any land areas, and does not have long to live.


Figure 1. Noon satellite photo of Invest 94L, showing the well-defined swirl of its low-level circulation.

94L
A low pressure system near 27°N 60°W, about 450 miles southeast of Bermuda, has developed a well-defined surface circulation, as seen on visible satellite images. However, this system, Invest 94L, has almost no heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to its west being injected into its core by moderate wind shear of about 10 knots. The latest SHIPS model forecast is showing shear remaining in the moderate range and the atmosphere moistening in the vicinity of 94L over the next three days, which may allow the system to build enough heavy thunderstorms to become a tropical depression. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show development of 94L, and NHC gave 94L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning in their 8am outlook. I'd put these odds higher, at 50%, given 94L's well-defined surface circulation. Bermuda is the only land area that needs to be concerned with 94L, with the storm making its closest pass on Monday. 94L should then curve north and northeastwards out to sea.

92L
An African wave near 20°N 54°W, about 600 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. This system, Invest 92L, has only modest amount of heavy thunderstorm and is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. An ASCAT pass from 9:49 am EDT this morning showed no surface circulation and only a slight wind shift associated with 92L. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air surrounds 92L, and this dry air is causing problems for the storm. The SHIPS model and University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis are showing moderate wind shear near 10 knots affecting 92L.

Forecast for 92L
Light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots is predicted along 92L's path over the coming five days, which may allow the storm to organize if it can handle the dry air surrounding it. The latest 00Z and 06Z model runs of the four best models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET) show weak development or no development of 92L, and NHC gave 92L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning in their 8am outlook. A west-northwest to northwest motion for 92L is predicted by all of the models, which should bring the storm close to Bermuda on Tuesday. 92L should then curve north and northeastwards out to sea.

93L
The disturbance Invest 93L, located near 12°N 35°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, has fallen apart over the past day. Recent visible satellite loops show almost no heavy thunderstorms and very little spin to the system. Dry air to the west and north, combined with moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, have significantly disrupted 93L. The latest 06Z runs of the GFS and NOGAPS models do not show development of 93L, and neither do the latest 00Z runs of the ECMWF and UKMET models. NHC has reduced their odds of development of 93L to 10%. The system should find itself in an environment with lower wind shear on Sunday, and may be able to begin organizing again then. The storm should move through the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have a new post by 2pm Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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1783. Jedkins01
15. elokuuta 2011 klo 04:14 (GMT)
Quoting NavarreMark:


I will repeat the statement. Football games should NEVER be cancelled or delayed due to weather.

Spent to many years enduring rocky mountain blizzards at mile high amid sold out seats. Nobody ever went home and the games went on.

The timid of heart should stick to the domes.


I'm pretty sure 1 billion volts of electricity might be a reason to cancel a sports event? Or maybe a tornado?

Are you really that foolish? Or are you just another loser trying to start controversy in this blog...

Its just stupid entertainment. Its not worth risking a life, mr. brilliant.
Member Since: 21.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6896
1782. Neapolitan
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:54 (GMT)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Until the proper people investigate the stage itself to ascertain it was put together correctly, the weather is just one more factor.

Yeah, like the iceberg was "just one more factor" for the Titanic. ;-)
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
1781. wn1995
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:50 (GMT)
NHC calling for it to make it to 60 mph again. TS Warning issued for bermuda.
Member Since: 17.07.2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 207
1780. stormwatcherCI
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:38 (GMT)
Quoting cloudburst2011:



well i think thats a DUMB statement...you try to play in vivid dangerous lightning and see how you like it...they should call a game as soon as the lightning is seen in the area...that goes for all sports played outside...
He was joking.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
1779. NOLALawyer
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:37 (GMT)
Quoting FLdewey:
They named a new hurricane scale after IKE. You rock IKE!

FORT MYERS, Fla. – A newly patented hurricane scale better predicts the potential destruction from both wind and storm surge, but the National Hurricane Center won't say whether it will be endorsed or used.

The scale, called Integrated Kinetic Energy, or IKE, is the legacy of Hurricane Charley, which pummeled southwest Florida seven years ago Saturday; Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in 2005; and Hurricane Ike, which inundated Galveston, Texas, in 2008.

Full Story


If they named it after Ike, it would be the DDHIS (Debbie Downer Hurricane Intensity Scale) or the EBZHIS (Extreme Buzzkill Hurricane Intensity Scale). I kinda prefer EBZHIS, because that is easier to pronounce. LOL.
Member Since: 3.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 520
1778. HuracanTaino
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:36 (GMT)
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


This. I wouldn't immediately run mindlessly into a potentially fatal situation to have a chance at saving someone. I'd likely become part of the problem and have to be saved. First I'd get back to where I'm temporarily safe and can cautiously assess the situation. Then I'd run back to the stage to see if I can help anyone who's trapped.
But if it is your son ,Mom, brother, Dad, or friend, you never know what would be your inmediate reaction,talking from my own personal experience. You just want to save your loveone.
Member Since: 31.05.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 769
1777. WeatherNerdPR
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:33 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 7.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
1776. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:32 (GMT)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Until the proper people investigate the stage itself to ascertain it was put together correctly, the weather is just one more factor.
seems like a combination of updraft lift then gust front topple
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52406
1775. Grothar
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:31 (GMT)
Quoting lurkster:



I thought they deactivated 93L. But i saw somebody said it is back. When do you think this will happen. I'm not good with the models.


I don't know. Until they put 93L back up it will be hard to say. I do agree with the other bloggers that it should become better organized, but it it looking very good now. Had some dry air ahead of it.

Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23755
1774. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:30 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Did your heatwave finally break KOG?
yes the ex starts on friday heat is done watch it rain for the first week of the ex always does then heat will be back as the kids get ready for school last week of aug first week of sept we only got 6 weeks to go fish before the first night frosts show up
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52406
1773. PensacolaDoug
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:30 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:

I know what you're saying. But a simple, "Sorry, folks, due to the threat of severe weather, the concert will be postponed until the threat passes. Please seek shelter" might have saved some lives. It certainly would have prompted the union electricians in the rigging to climb down ASAP.

So far as "personal responsibility", there's much legal precedent. After all, you have the right to not fly, but once you're in the plane, you're safety is the airlines.

Bottom line: if the concert promoter/sponsor willfully overruled the advice and/or demands of the police or anyone else--and we don't know if that's actually what happened--there will be deep legal and financial repercussions. As there should be.




Until the proper people investigate the stage itself to ascertain it was put together correctly, the weather is just one more factor.
Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
1772. seafarer459
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:29 (GMT)
Quoting presslord:
OK...if my 20 year old kid were a jockey, I'd read the Racing Form....but he's not...he's a pilot....and this afternoon @ 1P he's supposed to perform some exercise requiring 10 miles visibility....and I can't for the life of me find that info on WU...and if I call him and ask, he'll just make fun of me....any help one of you experts could give me would be greatly appreciated....he's flying out of Charleston executive Airport on Johns Island, if that helps...


here ya go Press
Link
Member Since: 16.07.2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 515
1770. Patrap
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:28 (GMT)
psssssssssssssssssssssst, Hey,,wake up NEW Blog entry
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
1769. jasblt
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:27 (GMT)
Is this the new hurricane scale they have been talking about using for storms? Or just a tool to add to the SS scale?



Link

Member Since: 23.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 79
1768. sigh
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:26 (GMT)
Quoting P451:



Not quite sure of an ut-oh here. Three minutes to evac all those people out of the way would have been an impossibility.

The ut-oh might be the failure of the NWS to initiate the warning in time.

3 minutes after a severe TStorm warning is issued you have severe damage? That's a failure.


It doesn't say the severe thunderstorm warning was issued three minutes prior, it says the decision to evacuate was made three minutes prior. I don't know when the NWS issued a warning, but it was almost certainly earlier. The article does mention the state police were backstage monitoring the approaching storm on radar -- a NWS radar, I might add -- so they had all the information they needed, warning or not.

At any rate, the idea of anyone being able to sue the NWS is absurd.

.
Member Since: 13.09.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 75
1766. AussieStorm
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:24 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
Hot Tea is kickin in Gro,,thanx

I have a steaming hot cuppa right in front of me. In fact, it's to hot to drink right now.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
1765. SLU
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:24 (GMT)
Quoting P451:


What's the love affair with the EURO? It busts as much as any other model.


Well it seems the NHC is also in bed with the EURO for calling it one of the most reliable computer models in at least the last 4 years.
Member Since: 13.07.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
1764. lurkster
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:24 (GMT)
Quoting Grothar:
Looks like a very confusing Atlantic this morning. I wouldn't eliminate 93L from the picture just yet. I still believe that this is one that should be monitored closely. It appears that the conditions will be much more favorable for development in a few days and 93L should track into the Caribbean. Once it does, if the timing is write, it should start a more Northward turn in the Western Caribbean if it survives. With ridging expected at the time, it could threaten the Western Gulf or move back and affect the Eastern US. The MJO should be changing in the next few days.




I thought they deactivated 93L. But i saw somebody said it is back. When do you think this will happen. I'm not good with the models.
Member Since: 26.06.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
1763. Clearwater1
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:23 (GMT)
Quoting aquak9:
What I am amazed it is peoples reactions, 99% of people ran away, I only saw 1 guy running towards the collapsed stage rigging.

A sad state of folks' mindset these days, Aussie. So many folks want to be "taken care of", so very few want to "take care of".


I don't now what video you watched, but I saw hundreds running to help. . . . and reported as such by local news. Watch the video again before slamming the good people of Indiana
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1547
1762. SLU
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:23 (GMT)
Member Since: 13.07.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
1760. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:22 (GMT)
Quoting nymore:
The radio guy told the crowd they should be prepared to seek shelter if conditions changed. Sometimes weather events happen with very little warning this looks like one of those events. Example sometimes a thunderstorm builds and produces a tornado or devastating straight line winds with no warning of any type being issued. Question should I then be able to sue the NWS because they did not tell me the problem was coming or do I have some personal responsibility.
if the sky turns black then to a light shade of green with what looks like a wall of cloud moving towards me iam getting the hell out of the way iam not going to be standing there drinking a bud saying hey look at me
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52406
1759. Neapolitan
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:22 (GMT)
Quoting P451:



Not quite sure of an ut-oh here. Three minutes to evac all those people out of the way would have been an impossibility.

The ut-oh might be the failure of the NWS to initiate the warning in time.

3 minutes after a severe TStorm warning is issued you have severe damage? That's a failure.



Went to the Jets-Minny Monday night NFL game this year. Severe warnings were flying everywhere. Serious wind damage, frequent cloud to ground lightning, you name it - it happened.

There was no public warning announced. We were only told the teams were leaving the field due to lightning. They left the fans on their own LOL.


I know what you're saying. But a simple, "Sorry, folks, due to the threat of severe weather, the concert will be postponed until the threat passes. Please seek shelter" might have saved some lives. It certainly would have prompted the union electricians in the rigging to climb down ASAP.

So far as "personal responsibility", there's much legal precedent. After all, you have the right to not fly, but once you're in the plane, you're safety is the airlines.

Bottom line: if the concert promoter/sponsor willfully overruled the advice and/or demands of the police or anyone else--and we don't know if that's actually what happened--there will be deep legal and financial repercussions. As there should be.
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
1758. presslord
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:22 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Link


many thanks...it just irritates the crap outta me that he knows somethin' I didn't teach him...
Member Since: 13.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
1757. AussieStorm
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:21 (GMT)
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
So No Common Sense for any people attending? I am not out in bad weather period.

the NWS and law enforcement pulled the plug on the show, yet the promoter, the radio station pulled it back in and then the **** hit the fan when the stage area collapsed. IMO the promoter is to blame. Yes people have the choice of leaving anytime, but I guess when people pay out hard earned cash to attend a fair and to probably watch there favorite singer perform, I would probably stay too. Investigations should be done on why the promoter went against NWS and law enforcement advice and why did the stage collapse.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
1755. Cotillion
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:21 (GMT)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Could see Gert at 2pm.


pressure down a notch.
AL, 07, 2011081412, , BEST, 0, 281N, 629W, 30, 1010, TD


It's looking a touch better than before with the convective blowup towards the centre, though I think an upgrade that early is a touch premature.

It needs to prove it can hold onto it and build.
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1754. bappit
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:21 (GMT)
.
Member Since: 18.05.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5563
1753. Patrap
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:20 (GMT)
Hot Tea is kickin in Gro,,thanx
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
1752. Orcasystems
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:20 (GMT)
Quoting presslord:
OK...if my 20 year old kid were a jockey, I'd read the Racing Form....but he's not...he's a pilot....and this afternoon @ 1P he's supposed to perform some exercise requiring 10 miles visibility....and I can't for the life of me find that info on WU...and if I call him and ask, he'll just make fun of me....any help one of you experts could give me would be greatly appreciated....he's flying out of Charleston executive Airport on Johns Island, if that helps...


Link
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1751. Patrap
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:19 (GMT)
That is impressive P451.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
1750. nigel20
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:19 (GMT)
Ex 93L should have more favorable conditions than Don, so i wouldn't count out ex 93L.
Member Since: 6.11.2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7483
1749. Grothar
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:18 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:


So do I ,,

Hmmmmmmm...?


Maybe we will have to reactivate you, too.
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23755
1748. presslord
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:17 (GMT)
OK...if my 20 year old kid were a jockey, I'd read the Racing Form....but he's not...he's a pilot....and this afternoon @ 1P he's supposed to perform some exercise requiring 10 miles visibility....and I can't for the life of me find that info on WU...and if I call him and ask, he'll just make fun of me....any help one of you experts could give me would be greatly appreciated....he's flying out of Charleston executive Airport on Johns Island, if that helps...
Member Since: 13.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
1747. Orcasystems
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:17 (GMT)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
good morn all i see 92 is all but gone with 07L hanging on and former 93l becomes an AOI lets see if it comes on strong

XX/AOI/XL
MARK
13.33N/50.00W


07L/TD/G/CX




Did your heatwave finally break KOG?
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1745. CybrTeddy
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:15 (GMT)
Could see Gert at 2pm.


pressure down a notch.
AL, 07, 2011081412, , BEST, 0, 281N, 629W, 30, 1010, TD
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23018
1744. AussieStorm
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:15 (GMT)
Quoting P451:



Not quite sure of an ut-oh here. Three minutes to evac all those people out of the way would have been an impossibility.

The ut-oh might be the failure of the NWS to initiate the warning in time.

3 minutes after a severe TStorm warning is issued you have severe damage? That's a failure.



Went to the Jets-Minny Monday night NFL game this year. Severe warnings were flying everywhere. Serious wind damage, frequent cloud to ground lightning, you name it - it happened.

There was no public warning announced. We were only told the teams were leaving the field due to lightning. They left the fans on their own LOL.


and if a lightning strike hit in the crowd, it would of been lawsuit heaven for lawyers.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
1743. bohonkweatherman
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:13 (GMT)
Quoting AussieStorm:


I can smell a big lawsuit coming on. To go against NWS and law enforcement is a big no no in any country.
So No Common Sense for any people attending? I am not out in bad weather period.
Member Since: 5.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
1741. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:11 (GMT)
good morn all i see 92 is all but gone with 07L hanging on and former 93l becomes an AOI lets see if it comes on strong

XX/AOI/XL
MARK
13.33N/50.00W


07L/TD/G/CX


Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52406
1740. Patrap
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:11 (GMT)
These cops Mr. Hoover from Vancouver?

Danzinger Bridge case: 5 officers convicted in post-Katrina shootings


If you can show me where anyone was convicted of shooting at cops after K,,Id gladly eat your Puck.


Comparing wholesale calamity to er,,a Hockey Game is very,er,Candadian of yas,sport.

Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
1739. nymore
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:11 (GMT)
The radio guy told the crowd they should be prepared to seek shelter if conditions changed. Sometimes weather events happen with very little warning this looks like one of those events. Example sometimes a thunderstorm builds and produces a tornado or devastating straight line winds with no warning of any type being issued. Question should I then be able to sue the NWS because they did not tell me the problem was coming or do I have some personal responsibility.
Member Since: 6.07.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2210
1737. Patrap
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:06 (GMT)
Quoting Grothar:
93L looks a little better than last night.



So do I ,,

Hmmmmmmm...?
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
1735. Orcasystems
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:06 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
Where was the er,,Vancouver Law Enforcement pulling the Plug after they Lost the Stanley Cup in , er,..Canada Land ?






Probably watching the reruns of people shooting the Rescuers & Police in NOLA.

Stupid question Pat, they were there trying to stop it.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1734. Grothar
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:05 (GMT)
93L looks a little better than last night.

Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23755
1733. Cotillion
14. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:04 (GMT)
That said, on this occasion, the stage fell down three minutes after the initial severe thunderstorm warning.

Orderly evacuations cannot take place in just three minutes.

A lawsuit may come in this tragedy, but a bit of perspective may be required if the paper is correct.
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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