July 2011: Most extreme July on record for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:43 (GMT)

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According to the National Climatic Data Center's Climate Extremes Index, July 2011 was the most extreme July on record (since 1910) with a value of 37%. The Climate Extremes Index is created by merging the various climate indicators (drought, flood, extreme heat, extreme cold, etc.) into an index that can be tracked over time. This month's record CEI was due to extreme warm minimum temperatures across the country, wet northern Plains and Great Lakes, extreme warm maximum temperatures, and the severe drought across the South and Gulf Coast.

It was the fourth warmest July on record for the nation, and the fourth warmest month overall with an average temperature of 77°F. Extreme heat continued to bake the South, and Oklahoma and Texas both had their warmest months on record. Oklahoma's statewide average temperature was a remarkable 88.9°F in July, which is the warmest monthly statewide average for any state in any month. Dallas, Texas hit or exceeded 100°F on 30 out of the 31 days in July. For the entire South climate region, which comprises Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi, July 2011 was the warmest month on record for any of the climate regions.

As we noted in a previous blog, an unprecedented area of exceptional drought covered the United States in July, the largest area in the history of the U.S. Drought Monitor. 75% of Texas was in an exceptional drought, and the entire state of Oklahoma was in moderate to exceptional drought in July. The NCDC estimates that it would take 20 inches of rain to end the drought in one month in the worst hit areas of Oklahoma and Texas.


Figure 1. Texas and Oklahoma had its hottest and the state of Washington had its 11th coolest July on record last month, according to the NCDC.


Figure 2. Texas had its second driest July on record, and Oklahoma had its 9th driest according to the NCDC. California continues to be wetter than average, and last month was its 8th wettest July on record.

Angela

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1308. HurricaneDean07
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 18:13 (GMT)
10% for pre93L,
20% for 92L
10% for Ex-Emily
Member Since: 3.10.2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1307. SAINTHURRIFAN
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 17:59 (GMT)
Ok Teddy dont blast my english skills or long windedness lol.Remember Im having to type this on my own lol.Lets see, today we have the icecream man and the minne mite battling it out over AGW, durn i thought it was AIG I know that one.Then we have texas hurricane brownsville guy 2011 jason handle himself he used;fussing about the blogs of the other jason.Between these two episodes there are 400 posts.To top it off cloud top comes on with his prediction from his fisher price weather station he got at toysarous.Lets see in between I find levi with some good posts,Reed my friend although he still pushing for a windy Christmas in florida, A good guy like press who thanks this is a hoot, and few others that actually want to talk tropics on a tropical blog.Imagine that!Teddy I know the post is long,the grammar is horrible but my ships are still floating lol.Everyone have a good day.
Member Since: 20.08.2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 706
1306. FloridaPA
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 17:57 (GMT)
Quoting rv1pop:
Thank you. My point exactly! Those Bashing creationists, and those supporting Al Gore are violating each of those RULES. And I get the removal for trying to point that out. I did not come to this forum to to get ripped about my beliefs. I came here because I have family in GOM and want weather information. Thank you.


Wow! We still have creationists and flat earthers! amazing!
Member Since: 2.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
1305. zoomiami
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 17:54 (GMT)
Southdade Fish: thanks for that link -- looks like it has a lot of great information.
Member Since: 13.08.2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4136
1304. rv1pop
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 17:49 (GMT)
Quoting Bielle:
Quoting rv1pop:

I would love to comment on your emotional, and IMO irrational judgements, but to do so would probably get me banned. You are blasting MY "theology".
Back to lurking.


No religion, no politics, please.
Thank you. My point exactly! Those Bashing creationists, and those supporting Al Gore are violating each of those RULES. And I get the removal for trying to point that out. I did not come to this forum to to get ripped about my beliefs. I came here because I have family in GOM and want weather information. Thank you.
Member Since: 18.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 191
1303. stormpetrol
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 17:10 (GMT)
92l odds will probably be upped to 30-40% at 1 pm cst.
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
1301. Neapolitan
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 17:01 (GMT)
NEW BLOG ENTRY

(FYI, Dr. Masters is back. "I'll be with you every day for the next few months," he says.)
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
1300. PrivateIdaho
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 17:00 (GMT)
Quoting mrsalagranny:
What is that sitting on the tip of Florida?


Key West!...;^)
Member Since: 29.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
1298. PrivateIdaho
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:59 (GMT)
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
FWIW I happen to be a fan of Levi. Used his name as hoped it would be less offensive than mentioning some others. I hope I am getting - because my posts are not weather related.


I'm + ing you brother but I feel like Davey Crockett at the Alamo.
Member Since: 29.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
1296. kshipre1
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:57 (GMT)
which part of the GOM should be on alert? west, central or EGOM?
Member Since: 12.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
1295. mrsalagranny
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:57 (GMT)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Strong hurricane and a tropical storm.

180:
What is that sitting on the tip of Florida?
Member Since: 6.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 851
1294. SouthDadeFish
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:56 (GMT)
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
12Z GFS shows a pretty scary ridging pattern for the U.S. in the very long range.


Not a pretty picture:



Now that is the Ridge of Death.
Member Since: 12.08.2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
1293. kshipre1
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:55 (GMT)
yep. warm sst's, more moist environment and add possible low shear, the CONUS could be looking at some trouble, especially the SE CONUS
Member Since: 12.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
1291. Minnemike
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:54 (GMT)
Quoting mcluvincane:


He's by far the best though. Goes into great depth more than most.
that depth of analysis is greatly appreciated.
Member Since: 31.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
1290. HCW
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:52 (GMT)
Watch the GOM next week for some home brewed action as a front stalls in the GOM.


NWS LIX

MODELS
STILL SUGGEST A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH
THE GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS INSISTS THAT THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG WHICH WILL SEND THE BOUNDARY WILL INTO THE GULF
WHILE ECMWF JUST STALLS IT AT THE COAST. INCLUDING OTHER MODELS SUCH
AS DGEX...SREF...AND CMC...LOOKS LIKE IT COULD GO EITHER WAY. FCST
WAS BASED ON THE BOUNDARY STALLING NEARSHORE.
Member Since: 10.08.2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1346
1289. weatherguy03
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:49 (GMT)
We could be tracking three possible systems in the tropics by this weekend!

Member Since: 5.07.2005 Posts: 589 Comments: 29691
1288. SouthDadeFish
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:49 (GMT)
12Z GFS shows a pretty scary ridging pattern for the U.S. in the very long range.
Member Since: 12.08.2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
1287. Waltanater
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:48 (GMT)
Did anyone know that Aug 10th is the date in which, on average, the 1st Hurricane normally forms?! Interesting huh?
Member Since: 16.05.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1434
1285. MahFL
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:47 (GMT)
Quoting overwash12:
I don't ever want to hear about a PRO-AGW activist ever dying from Hypothermia in the winter,now that would be IRONIC!!!!


It would be even more ironic if they died in a cold summmer.
Member Since: 9.06.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2913
1284. presslord
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:47 (GMT)
Quoting ncstorm:


"not an expert" but Weatherguy03 talked about it in his video..says if anything develops, it will do a bret and head out to sea..


mucho thankso
Member Since: 13.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
1283. ncstorm
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:46 (GMT)
Quoting presslord:
I saw something earlier which indicated the potential for something off the SC/NC coast....Any of you experts have any insight on that?


"I'm not an expert" but Weatherguy03 talked about it in his video..says if anything develops, it will do a bret and head out to sea..
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13481
1282. bappit
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:45 (GMT)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


It does dynamically forecast the steering pattern, why else would you see the BAMs react to a trof.

Once again, good info. I mean, better info.
Member Since: 18.05.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5563
1280. presslord
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:45 (GMT)
I saw something earlier which indicated the potential for something off the SC/NC coast....Any of you experts have any insight on that?
Member Since: 13.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
1279. ShenValleyFlyFish
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:44 (GMT)
FWIW I happen to be a fan of Levi. Used his name as hoped it would be less offensive than mentioning some others. I hope I am getting - because my posts are not weather related.
Member Since: 9.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
1278. MahFL
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:43 (GMT)
Quoting laguna2:
Here's a link to an article from the Texas State Climatologist ("Texas Drought Officially The Worst Ever")


It actually states worst ever 1 year drought, there have been longer multi year droughts.
Member Since: 9.06.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2913
1277. mcluvincane
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:43 (GMT)
Quoting Minnemike:
interesting... then i bet it was the Levi worshipers ;)
i mean, he's a great contributor, but not the only one.


He's by far the best though. Goes into great depth more than most.
Member Since: 2.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1338
1276. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:43 (GMT)
NOTICE
All the weather images and data on the pages contained herein are provided by external sources. Provided "as is" without warranty of any kind. Any material that is copyrighted is property of the respective owner(s) and is to be used at your own risk. I do not take responsibility for any of the data shown on any maps. That is the sole responsibility of the provider the information comes from. The availability of the data on this site solely depends on the source. Don't use the weather information found here as your basis for life or death information.
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
1275. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:41 (GMT)
Quoting Waltanater:
I think reedzone is just as good, if not better but that is my opinion. You shouldn't rely on just one guy either.
you should not rely on anyone While the data presented on this blog should be correct, the data feed is not consistent enough to provide all of the data all of the time. More importantly, Your local National Weather Service office and/or NOAA weather radio is where you should get your important severe weather information. Use this blog for your enjoyment, but do not use it when making serious decisions. The information on this blog is gathered from other sources for information purposes only and is not intended for operational use
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
1274. cwf1069
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:39 (GMT)
Good T-storms coming for Miami now after the first hit early in the morning.
Member Since: 15.04.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 117
1273. Minnemike
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:39 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:

Oh, it's not admin; when enough trolls decide to target a post, they can make that post disappear--one of the aspects of this site that is quite frustrating. Good material from solid posters can be censored by a handful of trolls, while their endless troll-related ramblings sit here forever for all the world to see. It's very disheartening at times. (Try saying something scientific in Dr. Rood's climate change blog, and the same thing will happen when the "skeptics" are out in force.)
interesting... then i bet it was the Levi worshipers ;)
i mean, he's a great contributor, but not the only one.
Member Since: 31.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
1272. bappit
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:38 (GMT)
Quoting hcubed:


Went right past the data to trash the messenger, eh?

In the case of the Heartland Institute I think that's justified.

Edit: hack, coff. Where's my O2 bottle?
Member Since: 18.05.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5563
1271. txjac
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:38 (GMT)
Quoting laguna2:
Here's a link to an article from the Texas State Climatologist ("Texas Drought Officially The Worst Ever") detailing the unprecedented severity of the current year's drought in Texas, http://tamunews.tamu.edu/2011/08/04/texas-drought- officially-the-worst-ever/

As I noted in a comment yesterday, for central, south and parts of east Texas, the current drought is the fifth year out of the last seven in which extreme to exceptional drought has been predominant.

I grew up along the lower Texas coast, and most of my family still lives there. I NEVER thought I would hope for a hurricane or strong TS, but one has to weigh what is worse. At this point, I think a tropical cyclone (hopefully not a major hurricane) is the lesser of the two evils. So forgive me for wish-casting a GOM storm and SOON!



I know what you mean laguna ...we need some help bad in Texas. When I was walking the dog last night I ran across four large water breaks, just pouring out water. The COH water dept has their hands full trying to repair all the broken water mains. At last count there were 537 reported breaks
Member Since: 24.04.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2357
1270. Stormchaser2007
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:37 (GMT)
Should lift NW soon:

Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1269. sarahjola
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:35 (GMT)
its almost the middle of aug. will the tropics start picking up now??? did i really hear that the number of predicted storms has risen? we have not had too much in way of real tropical activity yet. the storms that have been named so far have been nothing but poofs, why is the tropics having such a hard time this season, and last season? will the high ever push the storms into the gulf or will the be an east coaset year, or out to sea year? tia!
Member Since: 10.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291
1268. SouthDadeFish
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:35 (GMT)
Quoting cwf1069:

Is the weakness suppose to be in place for both, Franklin and Gert? or is more plausible that future Gert doesn't make the turn. Thank you in advance
Well I can't answer that with any confidence as this is 168 hours out, which is a very inaccurate time frame. But so far it looks like Gert has the better chance to go farther west.
Member Since: 12.08.2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
1266. SouthDadeFish
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:34 (GMT)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I partially agree with what you are saying. What I get from what Levi posted is the BAMs use the steering from the 0 hour GFS and then follow that static pattern through the run. I contend the steering is dynamically changed throughout the run from the GFS input, but no there is no interaction between the storm and the steering the storm is assumed to stay the same throughout the run.
Yeah I'm not sure they are run on a static pattern either...
Member Since: 12.08.2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
1265. cwf1069
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:33 (GMT)
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Through 144 hours 12Z GFS develops Franklin and Gert with a trough digging down for Franklin:



I have overlaid the first five day plots from RaleighWx for the 12Z GFS here for easy comparison.

I also have this done for most of the global models so feel free to check them whenever you wish here.

Is the weakness suppose to be in place for both, Franklin and Gert? or is more plausible that future Gert doesn't make the turn. Thank you in advance
Member Since: 15.04.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 117
1264. Stormchaser2007
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:33 (GMT)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z GFS continues to show two systems by 126 hours or so, so far looks pretty similar to the 06z.


Strong hurricane and a tropical storm.

180:
Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1263. SouthDadeFish
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:33 (GMT)
12Z GFS has the trough digging for Franklin lifting out pretty quickly....
Member Since: 12.08.2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
1262. Waltanater
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:33 (GMT)
Quoting kshipre1:
Levi,

sorry to bother you again but a quick question. I am thinking about studying meteorology.

What are the basic requirements to study this field and what are the main courses I would have to take?

Meteorology has always fascinated me ever since I was a kid. Weather in general is quite interesting especially hurricanes

thanks Levi!
Attention to detail! That would help tremendously.
Member Since: 16.05.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1434
1261. hydrus
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:32 (GMT)
Quoting Grothar:


They are looking better than me. At least they have circulation. How you doing, hydrus. Posted some good maps this morning. Still unsure of 92L. But I know pre-soon-to-be-possible-maybe 93L will be the one to watch. Check my blog yet?
Been in and out of the office all day dodging da rain.I will visit now...
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19606
1260. MississippiWx
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:32 (GMT)
12z GFS agrees with my thinking that the wave behind 92L is going to have a better chance at becoming a strong tropical cyclone. 92L is going to prime the atmosphere for the wave behind it. The bad part is that it's probably going to come farther west as well.
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10157
1259. Cotillion
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:32 (GMT)
I don't know if it's been posted on here yet, but a couple of papers by the UKMET theorising on why upper ocean layers have not seen much warming in the past few years: Link
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1258. MahFL
10. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:31 (GMT)
Quoting 7544:
wow look at the fla radar rain rain rain


Er 3/4 of the state do not have any rain right now, and its bone dry in NE FL with temps of 98 forcast tomorrow and Friday.
Member Since: 9.06.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2913

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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