Tropical Storm Emily continues to threaten Haiti; More extreme heat in Central U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:47 (GMT)

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Tropical Storm Emily remains unorganized this morning, and continues to linger just south of Haiti, near 17.3°N, 72.3°W. Emily is 90 miles south of Port au Prince, Haiti. Storm motion over the past 24 hours has been slow, varying between completely stopped and west to west-northwest at 5 mph. This motion (or lack thereof) is still something that the models aren't analyzing well. Satellite imagery shows that thunderstorm activity on the north side of Emily seems to be disrupted, possibly by the terrain of Hispaniola, but also potentially by the continued moderate shear to the north of the storm. Wind shear has weakened to the northwest of the storm in the past 24 hours, but it will probably not be enough to allow Emily to undergo any significant intensification. The layer of dry air that we've been talking about for the past few days has also all but dissipated to the west and north of the storm. As the National Hurricane Center has been forecasting, environmental conditions are becoming slightly more favorable for the storm. Satellite estimates of wind motion suggest that low level circulation in the storm has become very broad and extends north over Hispaniola, which indicates that there's potential for the storm to undergo a quick jump to the north, but overall the storm remains weak and this seems unlikely. Emily continues to be tilted to the east with height, but doesn't appear as sheared as yesterday morning.

Conditions in Hispaniola have surely deteriorated over the past 24 hours, however, thunderstorm activity appears to have weakened over the island this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows that cloud tops have warmed in the past 6 hours on the north side of the storm, which means that strong thunderstorms are no longer building high into the atmosphere. High resolution model forecasts (see Figure 1) have continued to predict that the heaviest rain will fall to the east of the storm. The longer Emily tracks west without taking a significant turn to the northwest, the more likely it is that Haiti will see the most extreme rainfall in the storm. Overall, 6 to 12 inches of rain is expected to fall, with local amounts up to 20 inches possible in higher terrain. Flash floods and mudslides are a serious threat.


Figure 1. Forecast radar and sea level pressure from the 06Z (2am EDT) run of the HWRF high resolution model. While I think that the model was initialized poorly and doesn't accurately represent where the storm will travel over the next 24 hours, I do think that the precipitation field is accurate. The strongest rain and winds have been on the east and north sides of the storm over the past couple of days. If Emily continues to move west before taking a significant turn to the northwest, Haiti could receive the strongest impact from the storm.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
Models continue to waver back and forth on Emily's forecast track. Yesterday evening, the HWRF model forecast Emily to cross over Hispaniola and undergoing a close encounter with the Florida coastline. Last night, the National Hurricane Center wrote that "if Emily does not begin its northwestward turn soon…a watch could be required for parts of southern Florida today." Since the storm appears to be moving slightly more to the north than west this morning, this doesn't look like it will be necessary, although the forecast remains very uncertain. In today's 06Z runs, both the HWRF and the GFDL are probably forecasting Emily to move too far north in the next 12 hours. Given the present direction and speed of the storm, it's hard to see these two models' forecasts coming to fruition. The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center is a turn to the northwest over the next 6 to 12 hours, with landfall in Haiti happening this afternoon. Beyond that, they forecast Emily to stay on a northwest course through the Bahamas, where Emily could restrengthen a bit before making a turn to the northeast on Sunday, although they qualify this forecast with the fact that it's very uncertain, and that the global models dissipate Emily after crossing Hispaniola. The official forecast track does not have Emily making any landfall in Florida, but the Miami to West Palm Beach area is still within the cone of uncertainty.

Interestingly, the models that have done the best job at predicting the track of Emily thus far are the less relied-on statistical track models—those that don't take into account any current atmospheric dynamics. If Emily remains on a west to west-northwest track today, we cannot rule out that it cross over a larger area of Cuba, approaching the southeast portion of Florida. However, given the amount of land interaction in this potential track, the probability of Emily remaining a tropical cyclone in this scenario is low.


Figure 2. Satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Emily at 10:15am EDT. The strongest thunderstorm activity is now in the southern portion of the storm. Thunderstorms over Hispaniola appeared to weaken this morning.

Typhoon Muifa

Typhoon Muifa continues to be a category 2 typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Satellite imagery shows a well developed storm that is moving west-northwest. Over the next day, Muifa is expect to turn to the northwest as it approaches China. Today's track forecast is more north and east of yesterday's, with a brief landfall just north of Shanghai, potentially as a category 3.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite imagery of Typhoon Muifa from earlier today, plotted using NASA's new Rapid Response Web Mapping Service.

Central U.S. heatwave

The heat continues for the central U.S., where I've heard reports that local media in the region were canceling all of their outdoor shots because of the dangerous conditions. Here are some of yesterday's extreme temperatures, which were compiled by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt:

Little Rock, Arkansas set an all-time record with 114°F (the old record was 112°F set in 1986). Fort Smith, Arkansas set an all time record of 115°F (the old record was 113°F set both Tuesday and previously in 1936).

State maximum air temperatures from Wednesday:

• Arkansas: 116° at Silver Hill (4° short of state all-time record)
• Oklahoma: 115° at Atoka
• Louisiana: 111° at Caney
• Texas: 111° at Fort Worth and Wichita Falls (that also had a record high minimum of 88° this morning)
• Missouri: 109° at Branson and Ava

The heat index is also at play in this heat wave; some incredible values recorded yesterday include 126° in Poplar Bluff, Missouri, 125° in Walnut Ridge, Arkansas, and 122° in Arkadelphia, Arkansas. The GFS continues to forecast heat index values around 120° in the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend.

Angela

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2326. AWXWatcher
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 18:17 (GMT)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF EMILY. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED AT THIS
TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD AT 15 MPH.
Member Since: 11.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
2325. AWXWatcher
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 18:10 (GMT)
Quoting whepton3:


It's really picked up in the last couple of hours... curious what NHC will say at 2.



zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz .... what? Emily? :-)
Member Since: 11.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
2324. LazarusRH
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 17:27 (GMT)
First post and will probably get banned.
When I was in college many years ago, We were told to mix what sounded like "Krasium choloride" with some other reagent. My partner asked if it was Calcium choloride or potassium choloride. The grad student got irate and repeated "Krasium choloride".
My partner "Oh, Krasium choloride" The grad student said "Yes, Krasium choloride".
I don't remember what he mixed, but after the explosion and we explained what happened to the head of the Chemistry Department, we were able to finish the lab that semester.

Quoting aussiecold:

quoting
I did something very similar. I went to a smaller, local 4-year engineering university to get all of the calculus and general physics (and the fluff) out of the way. Then A&M for 2.5 years.

Paid about half of A&M's tuition and never had to sit in a 500 student auditorium to take any highly relevant subjects from a foreign grad student that had only started yearning engrish sis mons ago.

Very smart move ,just only you will be taken under Act of 1964 for discimination ,,stupid comment in blog full of foreing people ....is this the kind of students that America are promoting now?? Geez!!
Member Since: 31.07.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
2323. Waltanater
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 17:24 (GMT)
Quoting angiest:


TCHP is a factor of SST and how deep the temps go (or at least as I understand it). Deeper is betterm particularly for intense hurricanes, as they will remove a fair amount of heat from the surface. That is, after-all, why they exist.
GOM SST are very hot!
Member Since: 16.05.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1418
2322. rv1pop
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 17:24 (GMT)
Quoting Jedkins01:


I agree actually, they play it conservative knowing that most people don't know how the rain chance system works. I hear pro meteorologists take a lot of flak because the local weather didn't do as they said when its impossible to know exactly what will happen with the weather locally.

In fact being that I'm such a weather geek, all my friends/acquaintances call me the weather man. Well if I tell them, say a day has a high chance of showers and storms some being strong, but their local area didn't get much, they get mad at me even though many areas did get rain around the area. Or if it rains on a day they had plans that started sunny, somehow its "my fault" that it rained, now the people say this stuff aren't my friends, usually neighbors or acquaintances. My friends wouldn't do that to me. But my point is, sometimes the general public frustrates me as to how simple they think.


That is so true. Our neighbors are about 1 mile away, and a couple of weeks ago we were talking on the phone and she commented about the noise in the background. When I told her it was hail and rain on the roof, she called me a liar. It was clear and 20 degrees hotter at their place.

In January, we had one of those mini vortexes that pulled my 10 foot satellite pole and dish out of the ground and they did not even have wind, although our neighbor west of us had wind over 60 mph for 4 hours. (we were not home that week, so I do not know how long it lasted here.) My anemometer failed after reaching 138 MPH, so I do not know how strong or how long it lasted - broke the bearing block on the wind cups.
Member Since: 18.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 191
2321. Waltanater
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 17:21 (GMT)
Quoting Jedkins01:


Well most people are confused how my degree works, I'm doing this partnership with SPC back here at home, it allows me to save money and do all the classes I can possibly do locally, then go to FSU for the rest of the degree. I have spent a lot of time there at school though. I know its weird but it saves a ton of money and I still will be counted as a meteorology degree at FSU so why not?

I am in my second year, I will move up there next year is the plan to actually start my MET courses, as I always say, I have not taken them yet, but Ive studied weather since I was very very young so, I know my way around a little. I can't wait to take actual classes on meteorology though. This semester I will be taking Calc 2, Physics 1, Chem with Qualitative analysis, Humanities 2 and maybe a computer course, I 'm not sure on the computer course yet.
I took all those classes except the Humanitarian ones! LOL
Member Since: 16.05.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1418
2320. stillwaiting
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 17:20 (GMT)
Quoting Jedkins01:


Oh I know all about it, I'm going to school for this stuff remember, or did you not know?

My point is the coverage overall has been much higher this wet season than they forecast. If we actually got the amount of rain/storm coverage that they've forecasted overall, there would be talks of the drought getting even worse in Florida.

I know what 20 to 30% forecast looks like. They just have a huge fear of showing high rain chances this rainy season or something strange like that. Their forecasts are closer to what we had last year which was well below normal. Even when almost the entire area gets heavy rains of an inch or more they still don't want to put chances higher than 60%. The highest Ive seen is 70% and this whole area got widespread 3 to 5 inches.

,no offence,but i feel ruskin nws is one of the best in the country,remember macdill is close by,wink,wink,lol
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
2318. Waltanater
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 17:13 (GMT)
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Hello all....Thanks for the link to the launch....always enjoy those...:)


Do I sense another Katrina forming out of remnants of Emily down the road...!? Katrina formed in the same spot around the Bahamas.
Member Since: 16.05.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1418
2317. Bayside
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 17:09 (GMT)
Quoting catastropheadjuster:



I'm just asking this question. Am I not showing up on the board or what? Last 3 or 4 days I have asked questions, said hi and have been totally ignored, Heck should I just leave this site or what? I don't know what I have done to anyone, but am I on everyone's IGNORE LIST? I am not a troll by any means and I try not to bother anyone or ask to many questions. I really thought I had friends on here. I have been here on this site for a little while and got to know some of you all and know I just don't understand. I would understand If I asked a question and we was going thru a Cat 3,4,5 and it didn't get answered but when where just twiddling our fingers and talking about grammar and just sitting an waiting to see if Emily will be come anything it doesn't hurt to answer. Just a little confused. sorry to bother any of you. I am very sorry for being off subject but just had to know that's all.

Will Emily become Emily again?


I don't say much on here. I've asked questions in the past but a certain know-it-all only responded to the females, but he's gone now.

It's unlikely for the remnants to make it into the GOM and if they did they wouldn't develop. The more likely solution is to either reorganize some on the east coast of FL and be pulled out to sea or not reorganize. Yes, there has been a big blocking high protecting most of the GOM at least on the US portion. Once that's gone it might be game on for one of these waves to develop something and head on in there to suck up some of that energey.

Cheers.
Member Since: 4.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
2316. westpalmer
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 17:06 (GMT)

Quoting jonelu:
I missed it! I live in WP too...damn.
Fortunately the clouds were on either side of the contrail.
Member Since: 20.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 42
2315. aussiecold
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 17:04 (GMT)

quoting
I did something very similar. I went to a smaller, local 4-year engineering university to get all of the calculus and general physics (and the fluff) out of the way. Then A&M for 2.5 years.

Paid about half of A&M's tuition and never had to sit in a 500 student auditorium to take any highly relevant subjects from a foreign grad student that had only started yearning engrish sis mons ago.

Very smart move ,just only you will be taken under Act of 1964 for discimination ,,stupid comment in blog full of foreing people ....is this the kind of students that America are promoting now?? Geez!!
Member Since: 3.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 134
2314. Jedkins01
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 17:04 (GMT)
Quoting FlaWxChaser:


I went to SPC also. So basically your waiting to transfer with your AA that is what I did. I guess the way I read your post was that you were in school for this so thats why your point was right. Im not discrediting your point I was just wondering if you went to FSU yet.

I also was very interested in weather at a young age and there is a lot of material out there to learn from before college. As a senior at FSU in the Meteorology program I can tell you that you learn alot more after taking Gen Met, Climatology, Met instruments, Met computations, into to dynamics, and Weather Analysis and Forecasting. And I am looking forward to what I will finish learning in my last two semesters of atm physics, synoptic, and dynamics.

Good luck with school the Calculus classes are a beast though.


Nice! That is what I'm doing, yeah some have mistaken that I'm on campus there taking classes but yet they are confused because I report like I'm still living down in the Tampa Bay area, which I am, lol.

Yeah Calc 1 was pretty crazy, I hear Calc 2 is the worst so I'll have my hands full.

I can't wait till the actual MET classes, because I know Ive just scratched the surface of meteorology in comparison to what is ahead. Good luck to you too on finishing!

Member Since: 21.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6846
2312. jonelu
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 17:01 (GMT)
Quoting westpalmer:
saw it from west palm.  way faster than shuttle
I missed it! I live in WP too...damn.
Member Since: 31.10.2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 882
2311. whepton3
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 17:00 (GMT)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
gro i have no doubt in my mind that reformation is highly likly at this time more so as we get into late tonight and saturday morning


Got room in that camp for one more?

It sure looks that way doesn't it?
Member Since: 19.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
2310. Grothar
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 17:00 (GMT)
Dr. Masters has a new blog.
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23703
2309. MahFL
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:59 (GMT)
Also shows a full latitude trough over the eastern seaboard.


No !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: 9.06.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2905
2308. hydrus
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:59 (GMT)
Quoting Grothar:
I believe we are seeing the convection trying to wrap around a very weak center in the central Bahamas.


Link
Tropical Depression Emily.?.....nnaaahhhhhh...well maybe..:)
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19504
2307. whepton3
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:59 (GMT)
Quoting Grothar:
I believe we are seeing the convection trying to wrap around a very weak center in the central Bahamas.


Link


It's really picked up in the last couple of hours... curious what NHC will say at 2.
Member Since: 19.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
2306. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:58 (GMT)
Quoting Grothar:
I believe we are seeing the convection trying to wrap around a very weak center in the central Bahamas.


Link
gro i have no doubt in my mind that reformation is highly likly at this time more so as we get into late tonight and saturday morning
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52230
2305. PrivateIdaho
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:58 (GMT)
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


I have been on here since 2007 i think, and I say hello and rarely do I get a response.


Don't quote Catastro...got him on ignore

TIA.....

Just kidding! Try quoting someone who is good at meteorology stuff to direct the question. I don't answer questions much because this is not my area of expertise. Sorry if you guys feel ignored. Another good way to engage people is to go to their personal blog page and ask questions.
Member Since: 29.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
2304. atmoaggie
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:58 (GMT)
new blog
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
2303. angiest
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:58 (GMT)
Quoting DSIjeff:


give everyone on guess what it does with it...


Hmm, a magic trough?
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2302. Patrap
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:57 (GMT)
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Pat had a chance to make it out to see the Bless you Boys practice yet?From what i'm told peyton is getting after them like a drill seargeant lol.Well hopefully transitions into another ring.


Way too hot for my skin out dere ...

Drew is a perfectionist, fo sho.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125530
2301. hurricane23
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:57 (GMT)
The current overall pattern does imply plenty of opportunitys for cv waves to recurve though there (might) be some indications that may change in 2 weeks.
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
2300. ecflweatherfan
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:57 (GMT)
Quoting catastropheadjuster:



I'm just asking this question. Am I not showing up on the board or what? Last 3 or 4 days I have asked questions, said hi and have been totally ignored, Heck should I just leave this site or what? I don't know what I have done to anyone, but am I on everyone's IGNORE LIST? I am not a troll by any means and I try not to bother anyone or ask to many questions. I really thought I had friends on here. I have been here on this site for a little while and got to know some of you all and know I just don't understand. I would understand If I asked a question and we was going thru a Cat 3,4,5 and it didn't get answered but when where just twiddling our fingers and talking about grammar and just sitting an waiting to see if Emily will be come anything it doesn't hurt to answer. Just a little confused. sorry to bother any of you. I am very sorry for being off subject but just had to know that's all.

Will Emily become Emily again?


My best educated (er, self-educated) guess is that it will. It just takes time and the right ingredients to come together. There is a LLC over the Atlantic south of Andros Island, that is number 1 ingredient. Number 2 ingredient is warm water, and plenty of that in this region. Number 3, moist environment... has some drier air lurking to the NW over FL and Central/Western Cuba. Number 4, light winds through the atmosphere, right now there is moderate shear over the area. Number 5, land interaction... seems to be shedding herself from that at this time. Number 6, a vertically stacked system... seems to have good vorticity in the area.

Bottom line is: It is possible, and I would go out on a limb and say probable that it will regenerate--- to what capacity and what affects it might have on the US... just not sure yet. Stay tuned.
Member Since: 19.03.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1146
2299. kwgirl
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:57 (GMT)
New Blog
Member Since: 28.03.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
2298. DFWjc
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:57 (GMT)
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Hello all....Thanks for the link to the launch....always enjoy those...:)




That High over NE Texas is brutal....
Member Since: 19.07.2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
2297. Jedkins01
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:57 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:
I did something very similar. I went to a smaller, local 4-year engineering university to get all of the calculus and general physics (and the fluff) out of the way. Then A&M for 2.5 years.

Paid about half of A&M's tuition and never had to sit in a 500 student auditorium to take any highly relevant subjects from a foreign grad student that had only started yearning engrish sis mons ago.


Yep! that's pretty much the same as I'm doing, glad to see someone else other than me knows what I'm talking about! Its a smart choice too! Saves a lot of money, and trouble.

Member Since: 21.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6846
2296. whepton3
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:56 (GMT)
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


I have been on here since 2007 i think, and I say hello and rarely do I get a response.


Hi!

I think sometimes when there's a frenzy over a system... the innocuous posts get passed over sometimes.
Member Since: 19.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
2295. westpalmer
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:56 (GMT)

Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


I have been on here since 2007 i think, and I say hello and rarely do I get a response.
Hi Spice!
Member Since: 20.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 42
2294. Chucktown
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:54 (GMT)
Quoting SLU:
12z GFS very aggressive with the wave that is about to emerge off Africa. It show's a big storm hitting the Lesser Antilles and then carries it towards the Bahamas. The GFS has been very consistent with this scenario and the NOGAPS has started to join the bandwagon.

Link


Also shows a full latitude trough over the eastern seaboard. Another save and a beauty...
Member Since: 27.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1662
2293. Grothar
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:54 (GMT)
I believe we are seeing the convection trying to wrap around a very weak center in the central Bahamas.


Link
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23703
2291. CJ5
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:54 (GMT)
Quoting catastropheadjuster:



.

Will Emily become Emily again?


Well, there is no real answer to your question right now. Could it re-develop? Yes, that is possible. Will it re-develop? Noone really knows the answer, but you can read along and see who thinks it may and who thinks it might.
Member Since: 4.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
2290. FlaWxChaser
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:54 (GMT)
Quoting Jedkins01:


Well most people are confused how my degree works, I'm doing this partnership with SPC back here at home, it allows me to save money and do all the classes I can possibly do locally, then go to FSU for the rest of the degree. I have spent a lot of time their at school though. I know its weird but it saves a ton of money and I still will be counted as a meteorology degree at FSU so why not?

I am in my second year, I will move up there next year is the paln to actually start my MET courses, as I always say, I have not taken them yet, but Ive studied weather since I was very very young so, I know my way around a little. I can't wait to take actual classes on meteorology though. This semester I will be taking Calc 2, Physics 1, Chem with Qualitative analysis, Humanities 2 and maybe a computer course, I 'm not sure on the computer course yet.


I went to SPC also. So basically your waiting to transfer with your AA that is what I did. I guess the way I read your post was that you were in school for this so thats why your point was right. Im not discrediting your point I was just wondering if you went to FSU yet.

I also was very interested in weather at a young age and there is a lot of material out there to learn from before college. As a senior at FSU in the Meteorology program I can tell you that you learn alot more after taking Gen Met, Climatology, Met instruments, Met computations, into to dynamics, and Weather Analysis and Forecasting. And I am looking forward to what I will finish learning in my last two semesters of atm physics, synoptic, and dynamics.

Good luck with school the Calculus classes are a beast though.
Member Since: 18.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
2289. barotropic
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:53 (GMT)
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


I have been on here since 2007 i think, and I say hello and rarely do I get a response.


Hello!
Member Since: 22.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
2288. LakelandNana
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:53 (GMT)
Maybe, our next topic should be manners! : )
Member Since: 10.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 12
2287. Patrap
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:52 (GMT)
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125530
2286. whepton3
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:52 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
The Low is analyzed here on the GOM View,,click FRONTS


Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop


What do you think Pat... is it trying to get itself closed back off again?
Member Since: 19.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
2285. gulfscout
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:52 (GMT)
any of the models showing something in the future?
Member Since: 19.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 342
2284. Jedkins01
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:52 (GMT)
Quoting oakland:
Sad to say but I think they make the lower % predictions so people will feel better when they are the lucky ones to get rain and those who go without can say well there was only a 20-30% chance today anyway.


I agree actually, they play it conservative knowing that most people don't know how the rain chance system works. I hear pro meteorologists take a lot of flak because the local weather didn't do as they said when its impossible to know exactly what will happen with the weather locally.

In fact being that I'm such a weather geek, all my friends/acquaintances call me the weather man. Well if I tell them, say a day has a high chance of showers and storms some being strong, but their local area didn't get much, they get mad at me even though many areas did get rain around the area. Or if it rains on a day they had plans that started sunny, somehow its "my fault" that it rained, now the people say this stuff aren't my friends, usually neighbors or acquaintances. My friends wouldn't do that to me. But my point is, sometimes the general public frustrates me as to how simple they think.
Member Since: 21.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6846
2283. hurricane23
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:51 (GMT)
Quoting JFV2011:
Adrian, thoughts for the peak coming up?


Track Track Track....
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
2282. Ninj4
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:51 (GMT)
I just completed the Juno launch video in HD. Give it some time to process first though :-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouNiZCw4bDU


Member Since: 11.02.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
2281. angiest
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:51 (GMT)
Quoting catastropheadjuster:



I'm just asking this question. Am I not showing up on the board or what? Last 3 or 4 days I have asked questions, said hi and have been totally ignored, Heck should I just leave this site or what? I don't know what I have done to anyone, but am I on everyone's IGNORE LIST? I am not a troll by any means and I try not to bother anyone or ask to many questions. I really thought I had friends on here. I have been here on this site for a little while and got to know some of you all and know I just don't understand. I would understand If I asked a question and we was going thru a Cat 3,4,5 and it didn't get answered but when where just twiddling our fingers and talking about grammar and just sitting an waiting to see if Emily will be come anything it doesn't hurt to answer. Just a little confused. sorry to bother any of you. I am very sorry for being off subject but just had to know that's all.

Will Emily become Emily again?


I provided my take in post 2216. (to the ridge)

As to if she redevelops, I have no thoughts yet.
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2280. atmoaggie
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:51 (GMT)
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


Dang, what island is that that's getting pounded repeatedly?
That's the southern end of Japan's island chain.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
2279. SpicyAngel1072
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:51 (GMT)
Quoting catastropheadjuster:



I'm just asking this question. Am I not showing up on the board or what? Last 3 or 4 days I have asked questions, said hi and have been totally ignored, Heck should I just leave this site or what? I don't know what I have done to anyone, but am I on everyone's IGNORE LIST? I am not a troll by any means and I try not to bother anyone or ask to many questions. I really thought I had friends on here. I have been here on this site for a little while and got to know some of you all and know I just don't understand. I would understand If I asked a question and we was going thru a Cat 3,4,5 and it didn't get answered but when where just twiddling our fingers and talking about grammar and just sitting an waiting to see if Emily will be come anything it doesn't hurt to answer. Just a little confused. sorry to bother any of you. I am very sorry for being off subject but just had to know that's all.

Will Emily become Emily again?


I have been on here since 2007 i think, and I say hello and rarely do I get a response.
Member Since: 1.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
2278. SLU
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:51 (GMT)
12z GFS very aggressive with the wave that is about to emerge off Africa. It show's a big storm hitting the Lesser Antilles and then carries it towards the Bahamas. The GFS has been very consistent with this scenario and the NOGAPS has started to join the bandwagon.

Link
Member Since: 13.07.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4731
2277. Patrap
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:50 (GMT)
The Low is analyzed here on the GOM View,,click FRONTS


Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125530
2276. westpalmer
5. elokuuta 2011 klo 16:50 (GMT)

Quoting whepton3:


It does... then you have to use gravity to pick up some steam on orbit, then do a burn to get going faster away from earth.

Moon missions would do that... do a lap or two... then burn to get out of orbit.

Right.  I remember that now.  But as far as shuttle vs. Atlas V, the obvious speed difference was very apparent as an observer of both from my location.
Member Since: 20.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 42

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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