Tropical Storm Don forms in the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 27. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 21:29 (GMT)

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Tropical Storm Don, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2011 season, has formed in the Gulf of Mexico just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Hunters began investigating the system earlier this afternoon and quickly found a closed surface circulation. As the mission continued to gather data from what was thought to be a tropical depression at the time, winds of around 39 mph were found, as well as a 1001 mb central pressure, bringing the system up to tropical storm strength.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Storm Don. This loop will stay current.

The official forecast for Don agrees with what most of the models have been suggesting over the past 24 hours. Don will make its way toward the northwest over the next 48 hours before making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Galveston. The statistical models tend to suggest a more southerly track toward Brownsville, and the dynamical models are forecasting anything from Corpus Christi to Galveston. They all tend to agree landfall will occur late on the 29th (Friday night). Whether or not Don will reach hurricane status is still in question. The Hurricane Center's initial forecast is that Don will remain a tropical storm until landfall. Today some models were intensifying Don to a strong tropical storm, but none crossed the hurricane threshold. Now that we have data from aircraft reconnaissance, the models will be able to get a better handle on potential intensity. The runs that occur later tonight and early tomorrow will have much less uncertainty than those from today.


Figure 2. Model forecast tracks for Tropical Storm Don as of Wednesday afternoon.

I believe Jeff will be back tomorrow for an update.

Angela

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1726. HurricaneHunterJoe
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:58 (GMT)
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
These little shakes an wobbles add up over time. While not a big deal over the open ocean, they get increasingly important as you get closer to land.
just ask the people in Punta Gorda Florida
Member Since: 18.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
1725. HurricaneHunterJoe
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:56 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:
The center of Don is only half-way covered by the current convective burst, but it has been enough to lower the pressure by 3mb in 1 hour 40 minutes.


Levi, Why are the circulations not stacking? Is it that the steering currents at differnt levels of the atmosphere are slightly different? Or shear, which was light, and thought to be getting lighter?
Member Since: 18.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
1724. HurricaneHunterJoe
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:50 (GMT)
Quoting hydrus:
Don has a tail...
the don has coattails
Member Since: 18.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
1723. HurricaneHunterJoe
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:48 (GMT)
Quoting MrstormX:


Not really, it is clearly them most organized we have seen this since we lost visible images last night.
agreed, def looks the best since he was named
Member Since: 18.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
1722. HurricaneHunterJoe
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:39 (GMT)
Quoting Jax82:
If Don does make landfall in Corpus Christi he'll be going right smack in the middle of the Exceptional Drought areas of Texas, 75% of Texas is in the Exceptional Drought, 92% in Extreme.

I think Corpus is the best locaation for landfall to help the most with their rainfall issues.
Member Since: 18.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
1721. HurricaneHunterJoe
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:36 (GMT)
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Not only was the Yucatan impeding it, dry air, and shear, but upwelling.

Now he's free ...




Action:
Quote
| Ignore User


Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 532



agreed, he had a bit of a rough go last night into this am, he's doing better now
Member Since: 18.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
1720. HurricaneHunterJoe
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:35 (GMT)
Quoting MrstormX:


I'd agree with that, he obviously had overnight troubles.
I Think dry air and land interaction were tough on him last night. he seems to be doing ok now
Member Since: 18.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
1719. Vincent4989
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:33 (GMT)
NEW BLOOOOOOOOOOGGGG!!!!
Member Since: 13.11.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1718. hydrus
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:33 (GMT)
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19558
1717. MahFL
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:32 (GMT)
Looks like a west track atm, to MX, no rain for TX....
Member Since: 9.06.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2906
1716. SPadreguy
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:28 (GMT)
Looks like it's strengthening as it clears the Yucatan and heads for warmer water. Possibly getting a bit larger too.

Depending on how much the High to the north effects it I'd still guess a landfall somewhere between Port Mansfield and Aransas Pass as a strong TS, possibly a even a small hurricane.

I guess all that with nothing more than fifty years experience of watching Texas hurricanes. In the end Don will do what it does. I haven't done any more down here on the far south Laguna Madre than tie up my boat good.
This one is fairly small so it looks like there won't be much surge, and when you live on the Laguna Madre and your bottom floor is all of 1i or so feet above MSL that's your first concern.
Member Since: 16.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
1714. xcool
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:12 (GMT)
newwwwwwwwww blogggggggg
Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1712. NICycloneChaser
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:11 (GMT)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
IMO 45 mph, 999 mb at 11 am.


That would be my guess too.
Member Since: 10.08.2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1970
1710. Neapolitan
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:09 (GMT)
NEW BLOG POST
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13278
1709. RitaEvac
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:09 (GMT)
50mph could be reasonable with that 999mb pressure reading
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
1708. CybrTeddy
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:08 (GMT)
IMO 45 mph, 999 mb at 11 am.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23013
1707. HimacaneBrees
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:08 (GMT)
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Don running with a starboard bias.





Would that be to the right? Yes it's right or is it left. Depends on if your facing forward or aft. I'm confused now. Just joking it's right. And I do agree with you.
Member Since: 23.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 921
1706. barbamz
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:06 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, July 28th, with Video


Very good. Thanks again for spending your time on this service, Levi!
Member Since: 25.10.2008 Posts: 44 Comments: 5030
1705. ProgressivePulse
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:06 (GMT)
These little shakes an wobbles add up over time. While not a big deal over the open ocean, they get increasingly important as you get closer to land.
Member Since: 19.08.2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
1704. RitaEvac
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:05 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:
The center of Don is only half-way covered by the current convective burst, but it has been enough to lower the pressure by 3mb in 1 hour 40 minutes.


That's pretty impressive
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
1703. Orcasystems
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:04 (GMT)
I can see one or two 1000.2 readings in that loop the loop he did.

Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1701. ProgressivePulse
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:04 (GMT)
Quoting Vincent4989:
POLL TIME!
Do you think Don's rains will be....
A. Beneficial to Texas
B. Harmful to Texas



C. All of the above
Member Since: 19.08.2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
1700. Orcasystems
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:04 (GMT)
Quoting Vincent4989:
POLL TIME!
Do you think Don's rains will be....
A. Beneficial to Texas
B. Harmful to Texas


FOCUS young man.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1699. MagicSpork
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:03 (GMT)
Don got straight up sliced in half by the Yucatan. If the part that went south manages to re-form into another tropical storm, maybe it would be named Tropical Storm Don's Doppleganger
Member Since: 7.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 43
1698. Vincent4989
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:03 (GMT)
POLL TIME!
Do you think Don's rains will be....
A. Beneficial to Texas
B. Harmful to Texas
Member Since: 13.11.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1697. islander101010
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:02 (GMT)
nice swath of rain forecasted for texas great start to end the draught.
Member Since: 11.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
1696. ProgressivePulse
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:00 (GMT)
NHC is now left of the model consensus. Don is running with a right bias and more in line with the models ATM.

Member Since: 19.08.2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
1695. NOLALawyer
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:00 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:

Agreed. A Cat 5 can rip through the Caribbean, tear north along the Bahamas, and smack Bermuda head-on--but to too many here, it wouldn't bear watching as it would be "just a fish storm". :-\


You are 100% correct.
Member Since: 3.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 520
1694. Levi32
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:00 (GMT)
The center of Don is only half-way covered by the current convective burst, but it has been enough to lower the pressure by 3mb in 1 hour 40 minutes.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
1693. hydrus
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:58 (GMT)
The Goes East Sounder and Imager shows moisture levels much better..Its worth a look...Link
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19558
1692. NICycloneChaser
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:57 (GMT)
Pressure readings near the centre of around 999mb.
Member Since: 10.08.2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1970
1690. Levi32
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:57 (GMT)
Pressure falling to 999mb:

000
URNT15 KNHC 281347
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 23 20110728
133800 2406N 09015W 8429 01560 0081 187 065 029014 014 023 000 03
133830 2405N 09014W 8430 01555 0075 190 065 024013 013 024 001 00
133900 2404N 09012W 8432 01555 0073 190 066 019014 014 024 002 00
133930 2403N 09011W 8428 01555 0071 189 066 019014 015 022 000 00
134000 2402N 09009W 8433 01548 0070 190 065 021016 018 019 001 00
134030 2402N 09008W 8430 01550 0071 184 065 019017 018 020 001 03
134100 2401N 09006W 8433 01544 0069 183 065 017015 016 022 000 03
134130 2400N 09004W 8429 01545 0063 190 064 017015 017 023 000 00
134200 2359N 09003W 8430 01543 0062 186 064 011017 018 023 001 03
134230 2359N 09001W 8430 01538 0057 189 064 006018 018 024 000 00
134300 2358N 08959W 8432 01532 0046 195 064 005017 018 027 001 00
134330 2358N 08958W 8424 01537 0040 197 064 335013 014 030 000 03
134400 2357N 08956W 8432 01521 0033 198 065 300015 016 029 002 00
134430 2357N 08954W 8428 01518 0026 200 066 280015 017 029 001 00
134500 2357N 08952W 8433 01515 0027 196 067 246018 019 023 001 03
134530 2358N 08950W 8429 01520 0026 201 069 220018 020 /// /// 03
134600 2359N 08950W 8438 01506 0010 224 071 159018 020 /// /// 03
134630 2401N 08952W 8440 01499 9995 238 076 113026 030 026 000 03
134700 2401N 08954W 8438 01507 9992 253 081 093029 030 027 001 00
134730 2402N 08956W 8432 01520 0002 246 087 079031 032 026 001 03
$$
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
1689. Vincent4989
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:57 (GMT)
Quoting DrMickey:
Is it me, or did post 1615 mess up the blog formatting? Avatars are missing for me and every post looks like it is a quote. (Using IE and not by choice)

1663. DrMickey 1:48 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
Is it me, or did post 1615 mess up the blog formatting? Avatars are missing for me and every post looks like it is a quote. (Using IE and not by choice)
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: May 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
You're very, very ,very inactive!
Member Since: 13.11.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1686. NICycloneChaser
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:55 (GMT)
Quoting quakeman55:

No poll...let's just wait and see. Sounds like a better plan to me.


The poll bit was a joke.. Haha
Member Since: 10.08.2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1970
1685. centex
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:54 (GMT)
click the trop pts than evaluate where convection is in relation to convection.
Member Since: 10.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3217
1684. vortextrance
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:54 (GMT)
Quoting Jax82:
There are plenty of hurricane wishcasters in here this morning, but lets not forget the storm intensity forecast from NWS this morning. It does not appear at the moment that Don will reach Hurricane status.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 23.0N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 23.9N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 25.1N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 26.3N 94.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 27.3N 97.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 29.0N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED



This is true. It would be hard to justify forecasting a hurricane. However, they did say intensity forecasts on storms this size are "nearly impossible" to forecast.
Member Since: 5.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 700
1682. Caner
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:53 (GMT)
Since Dr... Masters takes every opportunity on his blog to promote warming, i think i would be remiss not to link this:

Link

Odd how the real world data vs. assumed stats for model plug-ins just shuts it down, huh?

Talk about your inconvenient truths...
Member Since: 27.06.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
1681. fmbill
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:53 (GMT)
Maybe not a drought-buster, but certainly would be a help.

Member Since: 27.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 409
1679. DrMickey
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:53 (GMT)
Thanks, P451! Looks OK now. I had forgotten about the YouTube/IE thing.

(Didn't mean to make it seem that it was your fault; just noticed the change in format...)
Member Since: 22.05.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
1678. Cotillion
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:52 (GMT)
999mb. A little bit of a drop from yesterday.
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1677. SuperYooper
28. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:52 (GMT)
Quoting NotCircumventing:
Blog is oddly slow ... we've become TC snobs around here, anything less than hurricane doesn't warrant the time I guess.


Kids aren't awake yet out west. It'll get busier then. We also get to look forward to the daily blog attack.

SARCASAM ON
Member Since: 18.08.2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 1601

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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