Globe has 7th warmest June on record; Typhoon Ma-on a threat to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 15. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 17:13 (GMT)

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June 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated June the 8th warmest on record. June 2011 global land temperatures were the 4th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were well above average, the 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes, from the coast of Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N, were 0.9°C above average, the 5th warmest such temperatures in the past 160 years. The record was set in 2010, with a temperature of 1.3°C above average.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average in June 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Record cold temperatures in the stratosphere
Global temperatures in the lower stratosphere, where the bulk of Earth's protective ozone layer lies, were at their coldest levels on record during June, according to both the University of Alabama and RSS, Inc. This is the second consecutive month of record cold in the stratosphere. Global warming theory predicts that in order to counter-balance the large amount of warming that occurs in the lower atmosphere near the surface when heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide are released into the air, the stratosphere must cool. Thus, a record cold stratosphere is consistent with global warming. However, the majority of the stratospheric cooling that has occurred since the 1990s is probably due to destruction of ozone by chlorine-containing gases like CFCs. Ozone strongly absorbs solar energy, warming the air around it, so if there is less ozone around, there will be less absorption of solar energy and a thus a cooler stratosphere.

Earlier this year, the World Meteorological Organization announced that depletion of the ozone layer—the shield that protects life on Earth from harmful levels of ultraviolet rays—reached an unprecedented level over the Arctic this spring because of the continuing presence of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere, and a very cold winter in the stratosphere. The Arctic ozone declined 40% between December and March.

U.S. heat wave to last at least another week
An unusually intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat wave over the majority of the U.S. continues to set numerous daily record highs. The latest long-range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the ridge of high pressure entrenched over the country responsible for the heat wave will move little over the coming week, and the heat wave should continue for all but the Pacific Northwest through July 23. The GFS model does show that the ridge will break down some during the period 10 - 16 days from now, but such long range forecasts have low skill, and the heat wave could easily remain entrenched over the country through the rest of July. I'll present a more detailed look at the heat wave next week.


Figure 2. Typhoon Ma-on at 04:15 UTC July 15, 2011, over the West Pacific Ocean. The small swirl at lower left is Tropical Depression Tokage. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Powerful Category 4 Typhoon Ma-on is headed westward over the West Pacific Ocean, but is expected to encounter a trough of low pressure this weekend that will recurve the storm to the north and northeast, bringing it very close to the coast of Japan early next week. With water temperatures along the path of the typhoon ranging from 28 - 30°C, and wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Ma-on has the potential to hit Japan as a major Category 3 storm.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development through July 21.

I'll have a new post by Monday at the latest.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

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1913. BahaHurican
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:59 (GMT)
Other feature that caught my eye this a.m. is the latest wave exiting Africa... looks like it's holding up, with some sort of associated low attached... Wouldn't that move into the WAtl some time in the next 5 days?

I'm also very interested - and concerned - to observe that Twaves moving across the basin seem to be up between 10N and 20N already, and the 1016 isobar is running along 15N as it approached the CAR.... that is a fairly fast lift in the last 10 days or so... and where do you get a 1036 high from???

Looks like some pple's implication that this may be a season of increased landfalls may be more than doomsaying.....
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20743
1912. BahaHurican
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:51 (GMT)
Morning everybody. Hope you are enjoying your Sunday.

We got some decent rain from our current AOI yesterday. Much of the central part of New Providence was flooded due to locally heavy showers. I had a few laughs because it was obvious many drivers had forgotten how to respond to the localized flooding... And now the humidity feels more like its normal stifling self.... lol

Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20743
1911. Dakster
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:25 (GMT)
Quoting Hurricanes101:


pressures do not look like they are falling though


Getting itself together has to take place before pressures will fall... I guess that is why they HH is sent out. To take a better visual look and to take a lot of detailed measurements.

Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9768
1910. wunderkidcayman
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:16 (GMT)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Offshore Waters Forecast

Excerpt:

SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 28N79W. THE LOW WILL MOVE S
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION MON
THROUGH TUE POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
WED. THE LOW COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.


there is couple of thing I have to argue about

ok

SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011
.SYNOPSIS...A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 28N79W. THE LOW WILL MOVE S THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION MON THROUGH TUE POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA WED. THE LOW COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE

look at words in bold more so in italic ok
#1 its now 10:14 am my time 98L is already past the Northern Fl mark and is currently passing the Central Fl mark they say that S movement will continue tonight well if this happens at the speed I see it at it may even pass the Fl Keys Mark and just maybe the the Northern Cuba mark before MON/TUE when it does its westerly track
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9598
1909. Hurricanes101
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:14 (GMT)
Quoting Dakster:
Last visible on the floater for 98L looks like the clouds are wrapping around - I'd say the look of a TD forming.



pressures do not look like they are falling though
Member Since: 10.03.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
1908. Dakster
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:11 (GMT)
Last visible on the floater for 98L looks like the clouds are wrapping around - I'd say the look of a TD forming.

Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9768
1907. 10Speed
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:11 (GMT)
You can safely call 98L a TD folks and it's probably going to either become a benefit or a big problem, depending how you look at it.
Member Since: 14.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 116
1906. PcolaDan
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:10 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1905. scott39
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:10 (GMT)
Quoting Dakster:
scott39 - I would say it is too early to tell what pattern will setup - I am assuming you are talking about where the A-B High will be for the peak time of the season.
And the early sign of a deep cold front in July. If I understand correctly about what is going to kick 98L N and then NE.
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1904. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:09 (GMT)
Quoting Dakster:
KOTG - Is that you adding POSS T.C.F.A.?
YES but so has offshore forecast and now nhc graphic so yep looks like a go for a poss T.C.F.A.
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52406
1903. MrstormX
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:08 (GMT)
Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
17/1145 UTC 28.1N 79.3W T1.0/1.0 98L
17/0545 UTC 28.8N 78.6W TOO WEAK 98L
14/0545 UTC 20.5N 97.5W OVERLAND 97L
Member Since: 27.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
1902. ProgressivePulse
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:06 (GMT)
Member Since: 19.08.2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
1901. scott39
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:06 (GMT)
Quoting Dakster:
scott39 - I would say it is too early to tell what pattern will setup - I am assuming you are talking about where the A-B High will be for the peak time of the season.
Yes I am
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1900. ProgressivePulse
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:05 (GMT)
Going to get up close and personal with the FL east coast IMO.

Member Since: 19.08.2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
1899. Dakster
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:04 (GMT)
scott39 - I would say it is too early to tell what pattern will setup - I am assuming you are talking about where the A-B High will be for the peak time of the season.
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9768
1898. nrtiwlnvragn
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:04 (GMT)
Offshore Waters Forecast

Excerpt:

SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 28N79W. THE LOW WILL MOVE S
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION MON
THROUGH TUE POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
WED. THE LOW COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10473
1897. NICycloneChaser
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:03 (GMT)
Quoting IceCoast:
I'll go ahead and say it. 98L looks very close to TD status. NHC will likely wait for Recon later to upgrade. What's everyone else think?


I think it's a bit away from being a TD yet, though the fact that recon is still going this afternoon, unless we get a late cancellation, suggests that the NHC think it might not be too long until we get a cyclone from it.
Member Since: 10.08.2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1970
1896. scott39
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:03 (GMT)
If a cold front comes down this far in July and kicks 98L out to sea, does this show what the pattern is going to be like in Aug and Sept??
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1895. Dakster
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:03 (GMT)
KOTG - Is that you adding POSS T.C.F.A.?
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9768
1894. hurricanehunter27
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:03 (GMT)
Welp my family have made a last second dission to go off to the panhandle for a vaction for a week! Lets see if L98 will effect us...
Member Since: 22.07.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
1893. AtHomeInTX
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:02 (GMT)
Quoting scott39:
When is the cold front forecasted to come in for the swoop?


Maybe after this? Link

THE RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES OFF THE
MID-ATLC COAST THAT BEGINS TO BUILD SW ACROSS N FLORIDA AND INTO
THE NE GULF THROUGH...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
AS A TROUGH E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DRIFTS WESTWARD.
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
1892. Abacosurf
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:02 (GMT)
Quoting AussieStorm:

That is looking nice, and obs or cams in Bahamas?


http://www.rockybay.com/

elbow cay. SSW wind
Member Since: 28.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 250
1891. ProgressivePulse
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:01 (GMT)
Quoting AllStar17:


If I am not mistaken, those obs. seem to support some kind of circulation.


Yes indeed, a few more west wind reports than last night
Member Since: 19.08.2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
1890. wunderkidcayman
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:01 (GMT)
12Z maps are out oh and the low is completely disconected from the front so yes we may have a TD now really that is all it needed that disconection with the front









Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9598
1889. AllStar17
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 15:00 (GMT)
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
30kts reported up in the NE quad.



If I am not mistaken, those obs. seem to support some kind of circulation.
Member Since: 29.06.2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
1888. ProgressivePulse
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:59 (GMT)
30kts reported up in the NE quad.

Member Since: 19.08.2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
1887. scott39
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:56 (GMT)
Quoting MrstormX:


Short term I don't think it will move much, it is probably just going to drift around. Once it is completely free of the stationary front I would say a general WNW direction can be expected before it enter the NE GOM.
When is the cold front forecasted to come in for the swoop?
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1886. WeatherfanPR
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:56 (GMT)
I see a big wall north of 98L so a S, W or E directions are more reliable.
Member Since: 23.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1563
1885. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:55 (GMT)
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/98L
MARK
27.55N/77.77W
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52406
1884. IceCoast
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:55 (GMT)
I'll go ahead and say it. 98L looks very close to TD status. NHC will likely wait for Recon later to upgrade. What's everyone else think?
Member Since: 17.10.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
1883. stillwaiting
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:54 (GMT)
I bet the HH find a TD when they go out,the high def vis loop presentation looks to good over the last 6hrs,w/banding begining on 98l's north and ne side
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1882. MrstormX
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:54 (GMT)
Quoting scott39:
How far W do you think it will get?


Short term I don't think it will move much, it is probably just going to drift around. Once it is completely free of the stationary front I would say a general WNW direction can be expected before it enter the NE GOM.
Member Since: 27.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
1881. scott39
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:54 (GMT)
Quoting txjac:



I'm hopng that it will get as west as Texas coast ....
I think thats a long shot...but you never know with these critters!
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1880. Dakster
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:53 (GMT)
I hear you AQUAK9, I always get rain if I paint the house or wash and wax the car.
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9768
1879. txjac
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:51 (GMT)
Quoting scott39:
How far W do you think it will get?



I'm hopng that it will get as west as Texas coast ....
Member Since: 24.04.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2357
1878. AussieStorm
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:51 (GMT)
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:

That is looking nice, and obs or cams in Bahamas?
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
1877. aquak9
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:50 (GMT)
Dak..I'm not a thrill seeker, not really want a "storm"...it's too much work. Just want rains to make N Fla healthy again, to help the river, feed the ponds, etc. It's hard-wired into me, the desire for rain. Can't help it.
Member Since: 13.08.2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25516
1876. scott39
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:50 (GMT)
Quoting MrstormX:


For starters it is now on the tail end of the front, shear is relaxing. Soon it will be able to survive on it's own.
How far W do you think it will get?
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1875. Patrap
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:50 (GMT)
One the NHC page, left side,,under RECON
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
1874. ackee
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:50 (GMT)
Looks like the centre is trying to relocate under the convection small system like these tends to devlop rather quick
Member Since: 15.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1341
1873. MrstormX
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:49 (GMT)
What time is the first recon?
Member Since: 27.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
1872. taco2me61
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:49 (GMT)
Quoting Dakster:
People thinking a 2pm red alert then?

maybe with some better data to feed into the models we will get a better idea of potential strength and more importantly DIRECTION for 98L.


I agree Dakster, we all will know more after 2pm....


Thanks Taco :o)
Member Since: 7.07.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3182
1871. scott39
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:48 (GMT)
The big question for me is ....how far W will 98L go before turning back to the N? I guess central Fl.
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1870. MrstormX
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:48 (GMT)
Quoting scott39:
Better where?


For starters it is now on the tail end of the front, shear is relaxing. Soon it will be able to survive on it's own.
Member Since: 27.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
1868. Dakster
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:47 (GMT)
Water dog - If you want the storm that bad, just paint your house and wash your car... Works every time...
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9768
1867. weathermanwannabe
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:47 (GMT)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


here ya go:





Thanks.......All we can do is wait for now although I would be a little nervous if I was in Florida/Bahamas with an organizing blob right next to the Gulf Stream just off the coast....
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8311
1866. caneswatch
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:47 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:

"Not moving across Florida and into the GOM"........fine with me. Next.


It still does have the chance of becoming a TD, and some models do have it moving across the state and into the Gulf.
Member Since: 8.10.2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
1865. Dakster
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:46 (GMT)
People thinking a 2pm red alert then?

maybe with some better data to feed into the models we will get a better idea of potential strength and more importantly DIRECTION for 98L.
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9768
1864. scott39
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:46 (GMT)
Quoting MrstormX:
Radar might not be as pretty, but overall I think 98L is doing better.
Better where?
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1863. SavannahStorm
17. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:46 (GMT)
12Z NAM still doesn't initialize 98L very well. Hopefully when recon gets some data they can feed it in there.
Member Since: 22.09.2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2229

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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