June 2011: another month of exceptional extremes for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:24 (GMT)

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June 2011 was another month of remarkable extremes over the U.S. Overall, it was the 26th warmest and 19th driest June for the lower 48 states, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Extreme heat gripped much of the South, with Texas experiencing its hottest June on record, and 13 other states recording top-ten hottest Junes. Accompanying the heat was intense drought--New Mexico had its driest June on record, and four other states had top-ten driest Junes. While the southern Plains' 1950s drought of record is unsurpassed in terms of duration, the current drought in parts of Texas is more intense than the 1950s drought when measured by the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. The heat and drought contributed to the worst fire year in U.S. history, with 4.8 million acres burned by the end of the month, more than double the average from the previous ten years.

While the South baked and burned, California experienced its wettest June on record, and heavier than normal precipitation and prolonged snowmelt during the spring caused June flooding in Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, and Washington. For the 3-month period April-May-June, the NOAA Climate Extremes Index indicated that it was the most extreme such period on record in the U.S. for precipitation, as measured by the percent area of the U.S. experiencing top 10% wettest or driest conditions. Heavy 1-day precipitation events were also at an all-time high during April-May-June 2011. Data for the Climate Extremes Index goes back to 1910.


Figure 1. Exceptional heat gripped most of the South during June 2011, with Texas experiencing its hottest June in 117 years of record keeping, and 13 other states recording a top-ten hottest June. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Exceptionally dry conditions accompanied the intense heat in the South during June 2011, with New Mexico experiencing its driest June in 117 years of record keeping, and four other states recording a top-ten driest June. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Tornado activity died down in June
According to data from the Storm Prediction Center, there were 177 preliminary tornado reports during June, which is below the national average for the month. On June 1st, a strong tornado tracked 39 miles across Massachusetts, marking the second longest tornado track on record for the state.

The Atlantic is quiet
A tropical wave near 10°N, 55°W, about 500 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west at 15 - 20 mph, and will bring heavy rain to the southern Lesser Antilles and the northeast coast of South America on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind shear over the wave is low, 5 - 10 knots, but the wave is too close to the Equator to leverage Earth's spin in time for development. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

The NOGAPS models is predicting that a strong tropical disturbance could develop in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Sunday, similar to how Tropical Storm Arlene developed at the end of June. The latest runs of the other reliable models do not predict any tropical cyclone development of note over the next seven days, though the GFS model was showing development of a system off the coast of Africa this week, in its run from Sunday night.

Jeff Masters

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1314. hydrus
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:15 (GMT)
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19606
1313. belizeit
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:09 (GMT)
Quoting neutralenso:

hey can i have a link to the NAM model please. Thanks
Link
Member Since: 10.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 915
1311. Neapolitan
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:04 (GMT)
NEW BLOG ENTRY
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
1310. MrstormX
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 14:00 (GMT)
97L is definitely a TD, radar and visible satellite images show that it is way better looking then say TD's #2 & #5 were last year, heck even Bonnie.

Member Since: 27.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
1308. Orcasystems
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:57 (GMT)
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1307. belizeit
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:57 (GMT)
NAM takes it to the NW passing close to the Honduran shore at 84 hrs.
Member Since: 10.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 915
1304. belizeit
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:53 (GMT)
GFS at 78 hrs has a TD making land fall in Nicaragua
Member Since: 10.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 915
1303. aspectre
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:50 (GMT)
1183 rod2635 "We may with to consider a genetically engineered salt water algae with high CO2 uptake, one that would only survive within a range of 200-400 ppm CO2 and within defined temperature and nutrient brackets. Deployed and allowed to thrive, these blooms might prove a short term nuisance til they self destructed as CO2 or temperature dropped below their requirements. However, I'd rather bet on this than the kindness of industrialized nations in reducing CO2."

Three problems:
1) The limiting factor on oceanic phytoplankton, algae, and cyanobacteria growth is the lack of a sufficient amount of dissolved nutrients, not carbon dioxide.
2) When blooms die, they release massive amounts of CO2.

3) Unicellular organisms are like comic book heroes/villains: What doesn't kill them, mutates them.
Stressors in the environment strong enough to cause damage causes normally asexual species to have sex, ie exchange genetic material during reproduction. Such mixing tends to lead to strain variations that can survive the stressor.
Stressors strong enough to kill causes them to lyse (ie break up to spread gene fragments) rather than undergo apoptosis (rot). Those gene fragments are in turn ingested by the (barely surviving) remainder as building blocks to create new genes. Slow enough population extinction rate often leads to mutant strains which can survive (and often thrive) in the conditions produced by the environmental stressor.

In other words, uncontrolled release of genetically altered microorganisms into the environment leads to a good chance of unleashing a plague as a unwanted side-effect.
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1302. MrstormX
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:48 (GMT)
Member Since: 27.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
1301. Minnemike
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:47 (GMT)
Quoting hydrus:
Link
thanks Hydrus (and P.Pulse)! it's funny, when i went to your link Hydrus, the loop running chronologically starts on frame 11 of 24 :P
kinda odd, had me confused at first, but certainly no less helpful once realized :D
(edit: thanks to P451 as well!)
Member Since: 31.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
1300. belizeit
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:47 (GMT)
Quoting hydrus:
Soaked again.??
For the last couple of days it has been raining a inch or more per day yesterday saw 1.7 inches .
Member Since: 10.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 915
1299. hydrus
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:43 (GMT)
Quoting belizeit:
Sorry your wrong we are soaked already . According to GFS and Nam we should see another yellow circul near Venezuela later today .
Soaked again.??
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19606
1298. belizeit
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:42 (GMT)
Quoting hydrus:
Central America is about to get soaked...
Sorry your wrong we are soaked already . According to GFS and Nam we should see another yellow circul near Venezuela later today .
Member Since: 10.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 915
1297. hydrus
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:42 (GMT)
Quoting neutralenso:
You guys understand that for now that Texas ridge will be blocking any tropical systems into the US but the models forecast it to weaken at the end of this week. if we get something like invest 97L that might help the drought there
Northern and western sections of Texas will probably miss out though...jmo
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19606
1294. MrstormX
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:36 (GMT)
Pressure continues to fall near 97L

Member Since: 27.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
1293. hydrus
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:34 (GMT)
Central America is about to get soaked...
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19606
1292. RitaEvac
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:34 (GMT)
Goodbye 97L, on to shore you go
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
1291. CybrTeddy
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:33 (GMT)
Unless the COC reforms or 97L slows down, it won't make it to the 2 pm TWO to be red.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23016
1290. ProgressivePulse
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:31 (GMT)
Quoting Minnemike:
can anyone please share a link to a nice CONUS Water Vapor loop, preferably a 24hrs loop... the NOAA page i visit daily has had their imagery down since Saturday :(
haven't had a lot of time to dig around at work; only been able to find 6hr loops at best, and not the nice contrasting 'black/blue' color scheme either.



Link
Member Since: 19.08.2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
1289. MrstormX
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:31 (GMT)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wonder if this will bump up activity at all ;)

Has a very short time to develop.


Radar shows <4 hours before landfall, it is tightening up though. It's upgrade will depend on the forecaster.
Member Since: 27.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
1288. RitaEvac
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:28 (GMT)
Quoting Skyepony:
That little BOC blob was fading when I went to sleep lastnight. CMC was on this..


Saw it yesterday over the southern Yucatan moving to it's location in the BOC, was racing then and racing now.
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
1287. CybrTeddy
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:28 (GMT)
Wonder if this will bump up activity at all ;)

Has a very short time to develop.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23016
1286. Skyepony (Mod)
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:28 (GMT)
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

UPDATED...THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM
MEXICO SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
WHILE THERE IS LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
1285. hydrus
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:27 (GMT)
Quoting Minnemike:
can anyone please share a link to a nice CONUS Water Vapor loop, preferably a 24hrs loop... the NOAA page i visit daily has had their imagery down since Saturday :(
haven't had a lot of time to dig around at work; only been able to find 6hr loops at best, and not the nice contrasting 'black/blue' color scheme either.
Link
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19606
1284. Skyepony (Mod)
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:27 (GMT)
That little BOC blob was fading when I went to sleep lastnight. CMC was on this..
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
1283. MrstormX
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:25 (GMT)
97L is the most impressive invest this year, even pre-Arlene didn't look as impressive.
Member Since: 27.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
1282. ackee
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:24 (GMT)
I think 97L should be upgraded to a TD#2
Member Since: 15.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1341
1281. MrstormX
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:23 (GMT)
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
What the heck? I went to sleep at 11 last night with "There are no tropical cyclones at this time" and woke up with a 50%?

Amazing how fast these things can spin up. If this were to be named, it would be eerily similar to the last Bret we had in 2005. It actually already looks better than Bret of 2005:





Wouldn't that be something if we had two Brets exactly in the same place.
Member Since: 27.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
1280. HurricaneSwirl
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:21 (GMT)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Reminds me a lot of an invest we saw last July that span up out of no where in the BOC, got up to 50% and didn't develop.


This one will likely end the same way too. Although the NHC has been somewhat less conservative this year..
Member Since: 7.07.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1279. CybrTeddy
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:20 (GMT)
Reminds me a lot of an invest we saw last July that span up out of no where in the BOC, got up to 50% and didn't develop.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23016
1278. HurricaneSwirl
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:19 (GMT)
What the heck? I went to sleep at 11 last night with "There are no tropical cyclones at this time" and woke up with a 50%?

Amazing how fast these things can spin up. If this were to be named, it would be eerily similar to the last Bret we had in 2005. It actually already looks better than Bret of 2005:



Member Since: 7.07.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1277. SLU
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:17 (GMT)
The highly controversial TD #2 of 2010.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


Invest 97L of July 2011.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Member Since: 13.07.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
1276. MrstormX
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:17 (GMT)
Member Since: 27.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
1275. Minnemike
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:16 (GMT)
can anyone please share a link to a nice CONUS Water Vapor loop, preferably a 24hrs loop... the NOAA page i visit daily has had their imagery down since Saturday :(
haven't had a lot of time to dig around at work; only been able to find 6hr loops at best, and not the nice contrasting 'black/blue' color scheme either.
Member Since: 31.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
1274. Neapolitan
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:16 (GMT)
97L is pouch 02L. This is from yesterday's synopsis:

SYNOPSIS 2011071200

P02L
15N, 83W
700hPa

ECMWF: Weakens over land, but an OW max persists until a pouch redevelops over the eastern Pacific. While the other models hint at southward motion, ECMWF continues moving west-northwestward.

GFS: Unlike yesterday, it appears to weaken more over land, which makes it more difficult to continue tracking it. Does it just continue moving westward and dissipate, or is it pulled into the developing monsoonal system farther to the southeast over Central America? Tough to say. Regardless, P02L is depicted as weak at 48 hours.

UKMET: Similar to GFS, except that UKMET depicts a large OW max that moves southward over the eastern Pacific after 48 hours. I did not track it because it never regains a distinct pouch center. UKMET also develops a strong system over Central America.

NOGAPS: Similar to UKMET in that it moves PO2L (or its remnant) southward after 48 hours. The difference is that NOGAPS has a stronger pouch with a more continuous track, so I continued to assign positions during what may, in the end, turn out to be a monsoonal development of a different system.

ECMWF -8.0 v700 & RH/TPW 120h
GFS -8.5 v700 & RH 48h
UKMET -8.2 v700 & RH 48h
NOGAPS -8.3 v700 120h
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
1273. MrstormX
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:14 (GMT)
50% now, nhc...good to see they care
Member Since: 27.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
1272. weathermanwannabe
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:14 (GMT)
Quoting MrstormX:
Check the 97L radar mi amici

Link


Great link.............Thank You.
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8310
1271. MrstormX
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:14 (GMT)
000
ABNT20 KNHC 131312
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

UPDATED...THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM
MEXICO SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
WHILE THERE IS LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI

Member Since: 27.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
1270. MrstormX
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:12 (GMT)
Check the 97L radar mi amici

Link
Member Since: 27.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
1269. Stormchaser2007
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:10 (GMT)
Gotta love midget cyclone's.

Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1268. CybrTeddy
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:07 (GMT)
97L has about 4 hours left before landfall.

Development aint likely, especially since the NHC only has this at 10%.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23016
1267. Stormchaser2007
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:06 (GMT)
Quoting MrstormX:


Any chance of a TCFA?


I doubt it...

The NHC will more than likely let this one go.

Very interesting how quickly this spun up though.
Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1266. SLU
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:04 (GMT)
Not far from a TD but landfall might prevent the NHC from upgrading.

Member Since: 13.07.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
1265. MrstormX
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:04 (GMT)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972011.invest



Any chance of a TCFA?
Member Since: 27.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
1264. hydrus
13. heinäkuuta 2011 klo 13:03 (GMT)
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19606

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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