U.S. had most extreme spring on record for precipitation

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:20 (GMT)

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Nature's fury reached new extremes in the U.S. during the spring of 2011, as a punishing series of billion-dollar disasters brought the greatest flood in recorded history to the Lower Mississippi River, an astonishingly deadly tornado season, the worst drought in Texas history, and the worst fire season in recorded history. There's never been a spring this extreme for combined wet and dry extremes in the U.S. since record keeping began over a century ago, statistics released last week by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) reveal. Their Climate Extremes Index (CEI) looks at the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top 10% or bottom 10% monthly maximum and minimum temperatures, monthly drought, and daily precipitation. During the spring period of March, April, and May 2011, 46% of the nation had abnormally (top 10%) wet or dry conditions--the greatest such area during the 102-year period of record. On average, just 21% of the country has exceptionally wet conditions or exceptionally dry conditions during spring. In addition, heavy 1-day precipitation events--the kind that cause the worst flooding--were also at an all-time high in the spring of 2011. However, temperatures during spring 2011 were not as extreme as in several previous springs over the past 102 years, so spring 2011 ranked as the 5th most extreme spring in the past 102 years when factoring in both temperature and precipitation.


Figure 1. Nine states in the U.S. saw their heaviest precipitation in the 117-year record during spring 2011, with record-breaking precipitation concentrated in the Pacific Northwest and along the Ohio River. Seven other states had top-ten wettest springs. Texas had its driest spring on record, and New Mexico and Louisiana had top-ten driest springs. When compared with Figure 2, we see that this is a classic winter La Niña pattern, but at extreme amplitude. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. La Niña events since 1950 have brought wetter than average conditions to the Pacific Northwest and Ohio River Valley in winter, and drier than average conditions to the South in both winter and spring. Spring 2011 (Figure 1) had a pattern very similar to the classic winter La Niña pattern (left image in Figure 2.) Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.


Figure 3. The percent area of the Contiguous U.S. experiencing much above average heavy 1-day precipitation events in spring 2011 hit a record high, nearly 16%. The 102-year average is 9%. The previous record of 15.5% was set in 1964. Heavy springtime 1-day precipitation events in the U.S. have been increasing since 1960, in line with measured increases in water vapor over the U.S. due to a warming climate. See also Figure 4 below. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 4. Percent increase in the amount falling in heavy precipitation events (defined as the heaviest 1% of all daily events) from 1958 to 2007, for each region of the U.S. There are clear trends toward more very heavy precipitation events for the nation as a whole, and particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. Climate models predict that precipitation will increasingly fall in very heavy events, similar to the trend that has been observed over the past 50 years in the U.S. Image credit: United States Global Change Research Program. Figure updated from Groisman, P.Ya., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004: Contemporary changes of the hydro-logical cycle over the contiguous United States, trends derived from in situ observations. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 5(1), 64-85.

What caused this spring's extremes?
During a La Niña episode in the Eastern Pacific, when the equatorial waters cool to several degrees below average, abnormally dry winter weather usually occurs in the southern U.S., and abnormally wet weather in the Midwest. This occurs because La Niña alters the path of the jet stream, making the predominant storm track in winter traverse the Midwest and avoid the South. Cold, Canadian air stays north of the jet stream, and warm subtropical air lies to the south of the jet, bringing drought to the southern tier of states. La Niña's influence on the jet stream and U.S. weather typically fades in springtime, with precipitation patterns returning closer to normal. However, in 2011, the La Niña influence on U.S. weather stayed strong throughout spring. The jet stream remained farther south than usual over the Pacific Northwest and Midwest, and blew more strongly, with wind speeds more typical of winter than spring. The positioning of the jet stream brought a much colder than average spring to the Pacific Northwest, with Washington and Oregon recording top-five coldest springs. Spring was not as cold in the Midwest, because a series of strong storms moved along the jet stream and pulled up warm, moist Gulf of Mexico air, which mixed with the cold air spilling south from Canada. The air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico was much warmer than usual, because weaker winds than average blew over the Gulf of Mexico during February and March. This reduced the amount of mixing of cold ocean waters from the depths, and allowed the surface waters to heat up. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico warmed to 1°C (1.8°F) above average during April--the third warmest temperatures in over a century of record keeping (SST anomalies were a bit cooler in May, about 0.4°C above average, due to stronger winds over the Gulf.) These unusually warm surface waters allowed much more moisture than usual to evaporate into the air, resulting in unprecedented rains over the Midwest when the warm, moist air swirled into the unusually cold air spilling southwards from Canada. With the jet stream at exceptional winter-like strengths, the stage was also set for massive tornado outbreaks.


Figure 5. A La Niña-like positioning of the jet stream, more typical of winter than spring, brought much colder air than normal to the Pacific Northwest and Upper Midwest during the spring of 2011. Washington and Oregon had top-five coldest springs, and near-record snowfalls and snow packs were recorded in portions of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. South of the mean position of the jet stream, top-ten warmest springs were recorded in Texas, New Mexico, and Louisiana. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Was climate change involved?
Whenever an unprecedented series of extreme weather events hit, it is natural to ask how climate change may be affecting the odds of these events, since our climate is undergoing unprecedented changes. This spring's unusual precipitation pattern--wet in the Northern U.S., and dry in the South--does fit what we'd expect from a natural but unusually long-lived winter La Niña pattern (Figure 2). However, it also fits the type of precipitation pattern climate models expect to occur over the U.S. by the end of the century due to human-caused warming of the climate (though shifted a few hundred miles to the south, Figure 6.) This drying of the Southern U.S. and increased precipitation in the Northern U.S. is expected to occur because of a fundamental shift in the large scale circulation of the atmosphere. The jet stream will retreat poleward, and rain-bearing storms that travel along the jet will have more moisture to precipitate out, since more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere. The desert regions will expand towards the poles, and the Southern U.S. will experience a climate more like the desert regions of Mexico have now, with sinking air that discourages precipitation. A hotter climate will dry out the soil more, making record intensity droughts like this year's in Texas more probable. So, is it possible that the record extremes of drought and wetness this spring in the U.S. were due to a combination of La Niña and climate change. It is difficult to disentangle the two effects without doing detailed modelling studies, which typically take years complete and publish. One weakness in the climate change influence argument is that climate models predict the jet stream should retreat northwards and weaken due to climate change. Indeed, globally the jet stream retreated 270 miles poleward and weakened during the period 1970 - 2001, in line with climate model expectations. Thus, a stronger and more southerly jet stream over the U.S. during the spring is something we should expect to see less and less of during coming decades.


Figure 6. The future: simulated change in precipitation during winter and spring for the years 2089 - 2099 as predicted by fifteen climate models, assuming we continue high emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide. Confidence is highest in the hatched areas. Compare with Figure 7, the observed change in precipitation over the past 50 years. Image credit: United States Global Change Research Program.


Figure 7. U.S. annual average precipitation has increased by about 5% over the past 50 years, but there has been pronounced drying over the Southeast and Southwest U.S. Even in these dryer regions, though, heavy precipitation events have increased (see Figure 4.) Thus, rainfall tends to fall in a few very heavy events, and the light and moderate events decrease in number. Image credit: United States Global Change Research Program. Data plotted from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ushc n/.

Keep in mind, though, that climate models are best at describing the future global average conditions, and not at predicting how climate change might affect individual continents--or at predicting how rare extreme events might change. Major continent-scale changes in atmospheric circulation are likely to result over the coming few decades due to climate change, and I expect the jet stream will shift farther to the south in certain preferred regions during some combination of seasons and of the natural atmospheric patterns like La Niña, El Niño, and the Arctic Oscillation. For example, there has been research published linking recent record Arctic sea ice loss to atmospheric circulation changes in the Arctic Oscillation that encourage a southwards dip of the jet stream over Eastern North America and Western Europe during late fall and winter. Until we have many more years of data and more research results, we won't be able to say if climate change is likely to bring more springs with a circulation pattern like this year's.

One thing we can say is that since global ocean temperatures have warmed about 0.6°C (1°F) over the past 40 years, there is more moisture in the air to generate record flooding rains. The near-record warm Gulf of Mexico SSTs this April that led to record Ohio Valley rainfalls and the 100-year $5 billion+ flood on the Mississippi River would have been much harder to realize without global warming.

I'll have a new post by Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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1616. HurricaneHunterJoe
1. elokuuta 2012 klo 12:17 (GMT)
Good Morning From America.s Left Coast at 5:17 PDT
Member Since: 18.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
1615. HurricaneHunterJoe
22. kesäkuuta 2012 klo 20:25 (GMT)
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Thinking of moving to Eastern Virginia in a few years. If one believes the models it may be the best decision we've ever made.


I hear Alaska will be tropical soon!!
Member Since: 18.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
1614. biff4ugo
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 17:29 (GMT)
There has got to be an emergency way to stop small to medium sized levee breaches.
It could be dropping sand, large containers, or logs, like they do with fire retardant from big helicopters.
Some sort of catalyst that would turn the water to a stiff gel in a 10 meter radius might do the trick. How about metal slats that could span the breach and then be rolled down like a sushi mat or roll top desk for a brief patch.
That might slow the breach to a trickle while the gap is backfilled and shored up.
This is happening with enough frequency, and disastrous costly consequences that the USACE/FEMA/Homeland folks should reallllly be looking into it.
Member Since: 28.12.2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 1499
1613. largeeyes
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:48 (GMT)
ILwthrfan

That was one of my quotes in the senior yearbook when I graduated.
Member Since: 22.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1449
1612. hurricanejunky
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:35 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:

And, of course, Vitter isn't alone. Oh, well.

Did you see the video I made of your storm yesterday? it's comment #1316; I think you'll like it. ;-)


Pretty cool! Sorry to hear you were blanked, you guys are over 10" in the deficit while we're only around 3-4"
depending on where you survey...
Member Since: 28.08.2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
1611. nrtiwlnvragn
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:33 (GMT)
OLD BLOG
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10468
1610. hurricanejunky
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:29 (GMT)
Quoting Chicklit:


Head in the sand approach doesn't work with nuclear.
This stuff just won't go away.
Prevention, protection is better than letting anything leak out even if it cripples a fricking industry. This lack of attention is really peeing me off. Oh, so when it's already breached is that when people will begin to notice? Good grief. Pay attention. Even if it means no more nuclear. We're like a bunch of sheep being lead to slaughter first economically now environmentally. And for what?


I didn't get time to watch any evening news last night. Has the story hit the mainstream yet?
Member Since: 28.08.2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
1609. Neapolitan
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:28 (GMT)
Quoting hurricanejunky:


The double standard is quite disturbing though since David Vitter is still in office. His "activities" make Weiner look like a choir boy...

Got that 1.5" of rain yesterday, let's see what today brings!

And, of course, Vitter isn't alone. Oh, well.

Did you see the video I made of your storm yesterday? it's comment #1316; I think you'll like it. ;-)
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13295
1607. ILwthrfan
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:26 (GMT)
Quoting Chicklit:


Head in the sand approach doesn't work with nuclear.
This stuff just won't go away.
Prevention, protection is better than letting anything leak out even if it cripples a fricking industry. This lack of attention is really peeing me off. Oh, so when it's already breached is that when people will begin to notice? Good grief. Pay attention. Even if it means no more nuclear. We're like a bunch of sheep being lead to slaughter first economically now environmentally. And for what?


I definitely agree, but unfortunately it's the top 1% income class (BIG CORPS.) that is driving all the decisions in this country/world. They have always lied, cheat, stolen anything they can get their hands on if it means more money in thier pocket, regardless of whom it may affect or kill. We need a new age revolt but most of the worlds population seems to have been dumbed down. Or maybe we were just never that smart to begin with.

Member Since: 2.02.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1403
1606. caneswatch
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:20 (GMT)
Quoting hurricanejunky:


The double standard is quite disturbing though since David Vitter is still in office. His "activities" make Weiner look like a choir boy...

Got that 1.5" of rain yesterday, let's see what today brings!


Yeah, it's sick, isn't it?

Trace rainfall here yesterday. Hopefully some storms along the lines of Monday's and Tuesday's come.
Member Since: 8.10.2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
1605. emcf30
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:20 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
BREAKING NEWS!

Weiner is cooked. He gawn.

Yea the porn star was the icing on the cake
Member Since: 7.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
1604. mtmcelvy
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:19 (GMT)
Quoting PakaSurvivor:
NEWFLASH! Niceville Florida - It's actually raining! It's coming down like Cats and Dog with a gator or two!


Can you direct to Freeport please??!!
Member Since: 4.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
1603. hydrus
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:15 (GMT)
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19600
1602. Levi32
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:14 (GMT)
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, June 16th, with Video
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
1601. Chicklit
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:14 (GMT)
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Think of the reprecutions of the people vs. the government. If something's wrong with that site you best bet no one will find out about it until the cat is out of the bag. Long term goals toward Nuclear Power would come to a halt in this country if we had a TEPCO incident part II. The public wouldn't let it happen. Also to add to that site being located in the most fertile Grain Belt of the world if any contanimination were to occur it will send our current economy through the basement floor further crippling an already wounded country in multiple ways creating billions dollars more in damages. Then there's always that health issue with radiation exposure.


Head in the sand approach doesn't work with nuclear.
This stuff just won't go away.
Prevention, protection is better than letting anything leak out even if it cripples a fricking industry. This lack of attention is really peeing me off. Oh, so when it's already breached is that when people will begin to notice? Good grief. Pay attention. Even if it means no more nuclear. We're like a bunch of sheep being lead to slaughter first economically now environmentally. And for what?
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
1600. hydrus
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:12 (GMT)
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19600
1598. hurricanejunky
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:08 (GMT)
Quoting caneswatch:


No way he could stay, no matter how hard he tried.


The double standard is quite disturbing though since David Vitter is still in office. His "activities" make Weiner look like a choir boy...

Got that 1.5" of rain yesterday, let's see what today brings!
Member Since: 28.08.2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
1597. hydrus
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:08 (GMT)
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19600
1596. hydrus
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:07 (GMT)
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19600
1595. hydrus
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:05 (GMT)
Quoting kwgirl:
Good morning all. Hydrus, how can you be almost attacked? Threatened, yes, attacked or not attacked, yes, but almost attacked? That's like being a little preganant. LOL
Good morning. I will have to tell you about it some time. Then you will understand. Things might get interesting next week if the forecast low forms in the Western Caribbean instead of the Bay of Campeche.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19600
1594. caneswatch
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:05 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
BREAKING NEWS!

Weiner is cooked. He gawn.


No way he could stay, no matter how hard he tried.
Member Since: 8.10.2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
1593. IKE
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:01 (GMT)
BREAKING NEWS!

Weiner is cooked. He gawn.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1592. Waltanater
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:00 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:
The Wallow Fire in Arizona/New Mexico has grown to 761 square miles (487,016 acres), and is--great news--29% contained. However, a red flag warning has been issued for today and tomorrow, so officials expect the blaze to grow more than it has over the past several days. Temps will range from the high 70s to low 90s, winds will be from the southwest at 15 to 25 with gusts of 35-45, and humidities will range from 5 to 12 percent.

And on it goes...
I hope they put it out already!
Member Since: 16.05.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1434
1591. ILwthrfan
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:00 (GMT)
Quoting Chicklit:
Sioux City Iowa is 95 miles upstream from Ft Calhoun Nebraska nuclear power station which is currently surrounded by flood water from the Missouri River.



Ft. Calhoun is 55 miles north along the same river of Hamburg. In other words, there are flood waters for hundreds of miles along a river with a crippled nuclear power plant and its spent fuel rods yet no one is reporting on this situation except a few fringe sites.

What the heck is going on?


Think of the reprecutions of the people vs. the government. If something's wrong with that site you best bet no one will find out about it until the cat is out of the bag. Long term goals toward Nuclear Power would come to a halt in this country if we had a TEPCO incident part II. The public wouldn't let it happen. Also to add to that site being located in the most fertile Grain Belt of the world if any contanimination were to occur it will send our current economy through the basement floor further crippling an already wounded country in multiple ways creating billions dollars more in damages. Then there's always that health issue with radiation exposure.
Member Since: 2.02.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1403
1590. BobinTampa
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:59 (GMT)
Quoting Chicklit:
What the heck is going on?


maybe nothing.
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 526
1589. Chicklit
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:58 (GMT)
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
IAZ043-055-069-079-090-NEZ015-034-045-052-053-067 -068-091-093-
202015-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1203 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

...PROLONGED FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...
RECORD RELEASES AT GAVINS POINT DAM LOCATED TO THE WEST OF YANKTON SOUTH DAKOTA WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD FLOODING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. IN ADDITION TO THE MAINSTEM MISSOURI RIVER...TRIBUTARIES ALONG THE RIVER WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE SUMMER.
THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON THE MAINSTEM WILL LIMIT THE ABILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO EFFICIENTLY EMPTY INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER.
PERSONS ALONG THESE TRIBUTARIES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THIS FLOODING POTENTIAL.

THE FOLLOWING TABLE IS THE LONG-RANGE MISSOURI RIVER FORECAST...
ASSUMING NORMAL SUMMER PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED PEAK RELEASES OF 150,000 CFS FROM GAVINS POINT DAM. RECORD AND 2010 FLOOD CRESTS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR REFERENCE. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED FREQUENTLY AS THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE MODIFIED AS A RESULT OF RAINFALL EVENTS AND POTENTIAL ADJUSTMENTS TO RELEASES AT GAVINS POINT. ADDITIONAL RIVER FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE HERE:

HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=OAX


LOCATION FS LONG-RNG FORECAST(FT) RECORD(FT) 2010 CREST(FT)
-------- -- --------------------- ---------- --------------
SIOUX CITY 30 35 TO 37 44.28-1952 25.49

DECATUR 35 40 TO 42 43.50-1943 31.42

BLAIR 26.5 32 TO 34 33.50-1952 26.93

OMAHA 29 34 TO 36 40.20-1952 28.74

NEB. CITY 18 27 TO ABOVE 28* 27.19-1993 25.21

BROWNVILLE 33 43 TO ABOVE 44* 44.30-1993 42.89

RULO 17 25.5 TO ABOVE 27* 26.63-2010 26.63
-------- -- --------------------- ---------- --------------

FS = FLOOD STAGE

* = THE UPPER LIMIT FOR THESE SITES CANNOT BE DETERMINED DUE TO POTENTIAL UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM LEVEE OVERTOPPINGS AND RAPIDLY CHANGING CHANNEL CONDITIONS.

THE LATEST RELEASE SCHEDULE FOR GAVIN`S POINT IS AVAILABLE HERE:

HTTP://WWW.NWD-R.USACE.ARMY.MIL/RCC/REPORTS/TWOUT .HTML

$$
PEARSON

Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
1588. Tropicsweatherpr
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:55 (GMT)
We have invest 92E in EPAC!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep922011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201106161347
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

EP, 92, 2011061612, , BEST, 0, 115N, 920W, 20, 0, DB
Member Since: 29.04.2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13332
1587. hurricanejunky
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:53 (GMT)
News to get the blood boiling:
Public health, tourism and the environment in Florida suffered a major loss this week when the federal government put the protection of state waters back into the hands of the very people who have polluted them — big business and its enablers in Tallahassee. In a letter to the state, the Environmental Protection Agency dropped its effort to adopt clean water standards for Florida following 13 years of foot-dragging by state officials. This is either Washington's way to force the state's hand or a decision by the Obama administration not to alienate Florida in the run-up to the 2012 election. Either way, it's a risky game of chicken with a governor and a state Legislature that have shown no regard for the environment and clean water.

A brief history: The federal government told the states in 1998 to limit nutrient pollution in rivers, lakes and coastal areas by 2004 or it would do the job for them. But 2004 came and went. Florida environmental groups sued in 2008 seeking to compel the EPA to intervene under the Clean Water Act. The agency settled the case in 2009 under an agreement it would draft the standards for Florida. After 11 years of stalling, new rules were on the way and expected this year. Then Monday, after howls of complaints from business groups and state lawmakers, the EPA said it would give Florida another chance. The agency did not agree to preapproving any rules or to surrendering its rulemaking authority entirely. But it agreed to give Florida the time to write new clean water standards of its own.

This concession was as close to an all-out surrender as they come, and it's a shame EPA lost its nerve in the face of a massive disinformation campaign. State leaders and business interests hijacked the debate by ponying up inflated estimates for what it would cost to clean up Florida's waters. The EPA agreed to a host of loopholes — exempting entire industrial operations from the clean water rules, creating a waiver process and dragging out enforcement. Still, the state went to court to protect the biggest polluters. For this, Florida gets rewarded with another chance?
Member Since: 28.08.2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
1586. kwgirl
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:52 (GMT)
Quoting hydrus:
If it starts raining gators I will give up storm chasing. Was almost attacked in 87...
Good morning all. Hydrus, how can you be almost attacked? Threatened, yes, attacked or not attacked, yes, but almost attacked? That's like being a little preganant. LOL
Member Since: 28.03.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
1585. Neapolitan
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:52 (GMT)
New invest in the EP:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep922011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201106161347
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2011, DB, O, 2011061612, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922011
EP, 92, 2011061612, , BEST, 0, 115N, 920W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13295
1584. Vincent4989
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:50 (GMT)
Quoting Chicklit:
Good morning, Hydrus.
It's so hot I'm afraid that if I get knocked off my bike I'll end up lying on the pavement and cooked to death!
It's so hot my chickens are laying hard boiled eggs!
Actually it is raining here right now.

Still no new news out of Fort Calhoun-Omaha-Nebraska about the nuke plant that is now surrounded by Missouri River's still rising waters.

Actually, your chickens are already cooked.
Member Since: 13.11.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1583. Chicklit
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:50 (GMT)
Sioux City Iowa is 95 miles upstream from Ft Calhoun Nebraska nuclear power station which is currently surrounded by flood water from the Missouri River.

Link

Ft. Calhoun is 55 miles north (along the same river) of Hamburg. In other words, there are flood waters for hundreds of miles along a river with a crippled nuclear power plant and its spent fuel rods yet no one is reporting on this situation except a few fringe sites.

What the heck is going on?
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
1582. HurricaneSwirl
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:49 (GMT)
Ranking of U.S. states by D3-D4 drought percentage area.

1. Texas- 88.57%
2. Louisiana- 70.17%
3. New Mexico- 67.86%
4. Georgia- 57.33%
5. Florida- 39.83%
6. Oklahoma- 33.53%
7. Alabama- 21.61%
Member Since: 7.07.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1581. CybrTeddy
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:49 (GMT)
Run down of the models.

06z GFS. 156 hrs out has a 1005 mb low in the GOMEX, moves slowly and by 180 hours is a 1003 mb ''Arlene'', ''Arlene'' then continues to drift in the GOMEX until a landfall in SE Texas at 228 hours. Semi-long range out, watch for consistency.



00z UKMET doesn't go out very far but up to 120 hours has nothing.

00z CMC has nothing but does show increased moisture in the BOC.

00z ECMWF has nothing.

00z NOGAPS shows a low in the BOC at 144 hours, not a cyclone however.

Limited model support but we'll have to watch it, it will probably grow too.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
1580. hydrus
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:45 (GMT)
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19600
1579. HurricaneSwirl
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:39 (GMT)
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Why do I have a bad feeling that Arlene is going to form in the next couple weeks, end up in the BOC, then Mexico and not bring relief to FL or TX.


Well, the drought doesn't just stop at the TX border lol. The people in Mexico need the relief just as much as we do, especially the northern half. Link So that's not bad imo.
Member Since: 7.07.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1578. Neapolitan
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:39 (GMT)
The Wallow Fire in Arizona/New Mexico has grown to 761 square miles (487,016 acres), and is--great news--29% contained. However, a red flag warning has been issued for today and tomorrow, so officials expect the blaze to grow more than it has over the past several days. Temps will range from the high 70s to low 90s, winds will be from the southwest at 15 to 25 with gusts of 35-45, and humidities will range from 5 to 12 percent.

And on it goes...
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13295
1577. hydrus
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:32 (GMT)
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Why do I have a bad feeling that Arlene is going to form in the next couple weeks, end up in the BOC, then Mexico and not bring relief to FL or TX.
Actually, there is suppose to be a trough in the Central U.S. around the time the gulf low forms..
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19600
1576. FtMyersgal
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:31 (GMT)
Good morning/evening all. My neck of the woods received .93 inchs of rain yesterday. WOOHOO!! Local mets are predicting 50% of rain late this afternoon/early evening! I LIKE it. I know it's only a drop in the bucket, but we will take what we can get.
Member Since: 16.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216
1574. islander101010
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:26 (GMT)
nature has been in an extreme mood of recent. watch the gfs's texas rain storm in 8-10 days. is it coming from the se? last half of june we should see the tw's become alittle stronger
Member Since: 11.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
1573. hydrus
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:24 (GMT)
The ECMWF is interesting. It shows a Mexico landfall and something in the Caribbean...Link
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19600
1572. Chicklit
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:22 (GMT)
Good morning, Hydrus.
It's so hot I'm afraid that if I get knocked off my bike I'll end up lying on the pavement and cooked to death!
It's so hot my chickens are laying hard boiled eggs!
Actually it is raining here right now.

Still no new news out of Fort Calhoun-Omaha-Nebraska about the nuke plant that is now surrounded by Missouri River's still rising waters.
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
1571. hydrus
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:20 (GMT)
Low in the Western Gulf 6 days out...
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19600
1570. hydrus
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:17 (GMT)
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Guys, anybody got some "it's so hot..." jokes?
Actually it has cooled off considerably here in ECFL as that batch of thunderstorms from off the GA coast dropped down our way. Looks like it is headed out to sea. Was hoping it would be one of those that curve back westward and drench the state. Kind of like 93L but with more rain.
Its so hot, I landed a trout and it was already cooked..:) Good morning.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19600
1568. hydrus
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:16 (GMT)
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19600
1567. Chicklit
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:13 (GMT)
Hi Guys, anybody got some "it's so hot..." jokes?
Actually it has cooled off considerably here in ECFL as that batch of thunderstorms from off the GA coast dropped down our way. Looks like it is headed out to sea. Was hoping it would be one of those that curve back westward and drench the state. Kind of like 93L but with more rain.
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
1566. hydrus
16. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:12 (GMT)
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19600

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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