Smoke, heat, and air pollution across much of the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:41 (GMT)

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Smoke from Arizona's second largest fire on record, the massive Wallow fire near the New Mexico border, has now blown downwind over 1,500 miles to the Northeast U.S. The fire, which is 0% contained, is expected to rage full-force for at least another day due to unfavorable weather. Hot, dry, and windy weather is predicted again today over Eastern Arizona, where NOAA has issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions. A large trough of low pressure is anchored over the Southwest, and a disturbance rippling along this trough will bring strong southwesterly surface winds of 20 - 25 mph, with gusts near 35 mph today to eastern Arizona. Extremely low humidities of 5 - 15% and hot summer temperatures are also expected, creating a dangerous fire weather situation. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 20 mph for 9 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 7%. The fire grew from 300 square miles on Sunday to 365 square miles on Monday and 487 square miles Tuesday--about 40% of the size of Rhode Island. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 166-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record. Winds are expected to diminish for Thursday and Friday, which should allow firefighters to make headway controlling the blazes. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.5 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Active wildfires and smoke as visualized at 9am EDT June 8, 2011 using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke from the Wallow fire and Horseshoe Two fire in Arizona extended more than 1,500 miles, and was pushing into the Northeast U.S.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite on June 7, 2011. Heavy smoke from the fire covers large portions of New Mexico, Texas, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Nebraska in this image. Image credit: NASA.

Unusual June heat wave
An intense blast of heat set new daily high temperature marks in 14 states from Texas to Minnesota Tuesday, including a remarkable 103°F in Minneapolis. It was the hottest day in the city in nearly 23 years, since 105°F was recorded on July 31, 1988, and the second earliest date the city had ever hit 100°. Minneapolis' earliest 100° day came on May 31, 1934, when the mercury also hit 103°. Yesterday was the 5th consecutive day that the Austin, Texas Bergstrom Airport tied or set a new daily temperature record. On Monday, June 6, the airport hit 103°F, the earliest in the year that location had ever hit 103°. Record keeping began there in 1942, and the last time Austin was so warm so early in the year was on June 14, 1998, when the mercury hit 109°.


Figure 3. Air pollution forecast for Wednesday, June 8, 2011, calls for a large-spread region of pollution that is Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG), over the eastern third of the nation. Image credit: EPA Airnow.

Significant air pollution episode today
The heat will continue today for much of the eastern half of the country, and heat advisories are posted in fourteen states. The high heat, combined with abundant sunshine and very stagnant air, is expected to bring the most severe large-scale air pollution event of the year to the nation. Adding to the hazard is the presence of fine smoke particles from the fires in Arizona, which have blown downwind to cover most of the eastern 2/3 of the country. Air quality on Wednesday is expected to be Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Code Orange, or over 100 on the Air Quality Index), in more than 80 cities, including Baton Rouge, La., Indianapolis, Detroit, Nashville, Tenn., Columbus, Ohio, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Newark, N.J., Richmond, Va., and Atlanta. If you live in these areas, cut back on strenuous outdoor exercise today if you have asthma or other respiratory problems.

Caribbean disturbance 94L no threat to develop
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Northwestern to North Central Caribbean Sea near Jamaica is very disorganized this morning, but is still capable of bringing heavy rains as it pushes slowly northwards at less than 5 mph. I heard from wunderground user Anthony Zed in the Kingston, Jamaica suburb of Norbrook, and he reported that his rain gauge received 11.27" of rain from 94L from June 1 - 7, which is more rain than had fallen all year. The big rain day was yesterday, with 3.47". Satellite loops show a few disorganized clumps of thunderstorms in the region, and NHC has downgraded 94L's chances of development by Friday to 0%. Wind shear is very high, 30 - 50 knots, making development very unlikely.

First tropical cyclone of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms
Tropical Storm Adrian, the first named storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, formed last night off the coast of Mexico. Adrian is in an ideal environment for intensification, with light wind shear and ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°), and will likely become a hurricane on Thursday. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country, at least for the next three days. June hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are much more common than in the Atlantic.

NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 75% of the median. The 1981-2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 - 16 named storms, 8 - 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Amazing solar flare erupts
In recent months, the sun has awakened from its longest and quietest period since the satellite era bgan in the late 1970s. An increasing number of sunspots, solar flares, and Coronal Mass Ejections have occurred, as solar activity builds towards a peak expected in 2013. Yesterday, the sun unleased the most spectacular solar flare ever captured on video, highlighted in the Youtube link below.


Video 1. A spectacular solar flare erupted at 06:41 UTC on June 6, 2011, when magnetic fields above sunspot complex 1226-1227 became unstable. The blast produced a massive Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that was not aimed directly at Earth, but fringes of the blast may cause aurora activity on June 8 and 9. This is probably the most dramatic and beautiful solar flare captured by the cameras on NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO.) Additional movies and information are available at spaceweather.com, and additional information on the latest solar activity is available from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center.

Jeff Masters

Wallow Fire (azmtnmama)
the dots are ash
Wallow Fire
New Mexico Smoke Emergency (darnold)
A sickening orange glow looks like sunset but it is heavy smoke from forest fires in Arizona. Air quality alert in effect, warnings to stay indoors. Zuni mountains, just a few miles off in this view, cannot even be seen. Grants, NM, 2.5 hours pre-sunset
New Mexico Smoke Emergency
()

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1237. Levi32
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:45 (GMT)
New blog.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26465
1236. SLU
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:44 (GMT)
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 091432
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

...ADRIAN BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS WELL OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 104.1W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.1 WEST. ADRIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...KEEPING THE HURRICANE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADRIAN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR TODAY OR FRIDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ADRIAN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



Member Since: 13.07.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
1235. PcolaDan
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:44 (GMT)
Quoting Chicklit:


i thought she moved. somebody moved anyway. haha
if you really want to know, i'm getting nervous.
in 12 days leave for Seoul, then go to Stuttgart. will take a month.
i rarely travel so am starting to wind up about it.
will be in a real tizzy by the time i get out of here.
i have a nice couple staying at my house with the dog and cats and plants and fish
so won't worry too much about them anyway.


Seoul and then Stuttgart. Now THAT'S a trip. Sounds associated with the military. And sounds like FUN.
Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1234. Gearsts
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:37 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:
Adrian now a major:

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 091433
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
RATHER LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE HURRICANE
DISPLAYS A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH NO SIGNS OF
SHEAR. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED THIS MORNING...AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100
KNOTS. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.


THE HURRICANE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...OR
AT LEAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY BEFORE THE CIRCULATION
BEGINS TO BE AFFECTED BY STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR
SO. BY THEN...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND
NORTHERN MEXICO HAS EXPANDED AND CONSEQUENTLY...ADRIAN HAS ACQUIRED
A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285 DEGREES AT
8 KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING
AND BUILD FARTHER WESTWARD BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OF
THE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. BY THEN...ADRIAN SHOULD BE
WEAKER AND WILL PROBABLY BECOME STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE AND IN FACT...NONE
OF THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...TURN THE HURRICANE
NORTHWARD AS INDICATED YESTERDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 14.2N 104.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 14.5N 105.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 15.8N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WOW cant belive it, i guess they were reading this blog and saw all the talk about the dry air.
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1036
1233. Neapolitan
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:35 (GMT)
Adrian now a major:

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 091433
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
RATHER LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE HURRICANE
DISPLAYS A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH NO SIGNS OF
SHEAR. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED THIS MORNING...AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100
KNOTS. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.


THE HURRICANE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...OR
AT LEAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY BEFORE THE CIRCULATION
BEGINS TO BE AFFECTED BY STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR
SO. BY THEN...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND
NORTHERN MEXICO HAS EXPANDED AND CONSEQUENTLY...ADRIAN HAS ACQUIRED
A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285 DEGREES AT
8 KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING
AND BUILD FARTHER WESTWARD BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OF
THE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. BY THEN...ADRIAN SHOULD BE
WEAKER AND WILL PROBABLY BECOME STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE AND IN FACT...NONE
OF THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...TURN THE HURRICANE
NORTHWARD AS INDICATED YESTERDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 14.2N 104.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 14.5N 105.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 15.8N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
1232. Gearsts
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:34 (GMT)
Quoting Vincent4989:
Yet there are 60% chances of regaining convection.
With so much dry air? Dude the system is sick, not fealing well. Eating dry air is not good for Adrian.
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1036
1231. Chicklit
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:32 (GMT)
Quoting Grothar:


Wouldn't sefla give you a hint. Like in South East Florida. LOL How is my Chicklit today. Now you know how I feel when they all pick on me.


i thought she moved. somebody moved anyway. haha
if you really want to know, i'm getting nervous.
in 12 days leave for Seoul, then go to Stuttgart. will take a month.
i rarely travel so am starting to wind up about it.
will be in a real tizzy by the time i get out of here.
i have a nice couple staying at my house with the dog and cats and plants and fish
so won't worry too much about them anyway.

regarding getting picked on, some like it better than being ignored lol.
(i prefer being ignored, by the way!)
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
1230. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:32 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:
New image shows the NW eyewall completely gone.

yeah it has achieved its peak and will slowly drop off now
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52406
1229. Neapolitan
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:30 (GMT)
Not sure whether anyone's noted it here, but NHC has a set of floaters up on the Wallow Fire. (Here's a link to the visible loop.)
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
1228. twhcracker
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:30 (GMT)
i am always interested when people who know about it post about the bermuda high so if anyone knows anything about it please post when there is any news on it setting up. I know if it is too far west it causes a high to sit over the fla panhandle all summer and its excruciating heat and drought. that happened in 2005 and again last year and i just wish we had some rain, no bad storms!
Member Since: 30.07.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
1227. ElConando
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:29 (GMT)
It rained here about 45 mins ago, yet it was such a light rain the ground barely got wet. Better luck next time I guess...
Member Since: 6.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
1226. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:28 (GMT)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04
21:00 PM JST June 9 2011
==============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 15.9N 118.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.5N 117.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
1225. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:27 (GMT)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DODONG
5:00 PM PhST June 9 2011
=====================================

Tropical Depresssion DODONG has accelerated and continues to move in a North Northwest direction.

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Dodong located at 16.0°N 118.7°E or 150 km west of Dagupan City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest at 9 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warning #1
------------

Luzon Region
------------
1.Bataan
2.Pampanga
3.Tarlac
4.Zambales
5.Pangasinan

Additional Information
=====================
Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere are now lowered.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

TD DODONG is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and will bring rains over the western sections of Central and Southern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
1224. Vincent4989
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:26 (GMT)
Quoting Walshy:


Troll Alert

I'm not a troll, because disagreements without disputes are allowed. I'm just having a disagreement here.
Member Since: 13.11.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1223. Levi32
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:24 (GMT)
New image shows the NW eyewall completely gone.

Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26465
1222. Vincent4989
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:23 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:


TPW imagery and IR satellite imagery completely disagree:



Yet there are 60% chances of regaining convection.
Member Since: 13.11.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1221. Walshy
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:22 (GMT)
Quoting Vincent4989:

Yeah, but dry air has little or no effect on Adrian.


Troll Alert
Member Since: 17.05.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
1220. Levi32
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:21 (GMT)
ICESS MJO projections show upward motion returning to the tropical Atlantic after June 20th.

Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26465
1219. BahaHurican
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:20 (GMT)
Morning all. It's overcast cool and windy here this a.m.... I do hope we get at least a few showers in the NW Bahamas. I'll bet points south are reporting rain today. Pity the core of the system didn't track further north as opposed to NE, but even if it only brings a little rain today I'll be satisfied... I also hope it lasts until tomorrow.

:)
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20743
1218. Levi32
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:19 (GMT)
Quoting Vincent4989:

Yeah, but dry air has little or no effect on Adrian.


TPW imagery and IR satellite imagery completely disagree:



Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26465
1217. Neapolitan
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:18 (GMT)
What a difference a year makes:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
1216. CybrTeddy
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:18 (GMT)
Adrian's northern eyewall is collapsing due to dry air intrusion from what I can see. Rapid waning of convection in the last few frames there. Adrian though sports a very impressive looking eye for a 105 mph Category 2 hurricane.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23018
1215. Vincent4989
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:18 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:


That's because it's hard to interpret cloud heights on visible. If you look closely, the eastern side looks like trash. The eye is kind of nice-looking, but the core is much worse-off than it looks on some images. This storm may very well be a low-end Cat 2, but I doubt it will get any stronger than that.

Yeah, but dry air has little or no effect on Adrian.
Member Since: 13.11.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1214. MoltenIce
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:18 (GMT)
Looks very annular-ry.
Member Since: 11.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 768
1213. ElConando
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:17 (GMT)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Aha!!!



Keep flaunting your rain!
Member Since: 6.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
1211. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:16 (GMT)
T.C.F.W.
01E/H/A/C2
MARK
14.75N/104.16W
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52406
1210. BahaHurican
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:13 (GMT)
Aha!!!

Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20743
1209. Levi32
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:10 (GMT)
Quoting Vincent4989:

That sat image looks like a Cat 5/4 hurricane.


That's because it's hard to interpret cloud heights on visible. If you look closely, the eastern side looks like trash. The eye is kind of nice-looking, but the core is much worse-off than it looks on some images. This storm may very well be a low-end Cat 2, but I doubt it will get any stronger than that.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26465
1208. Vincent4989
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:09 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:
It's a little funny. Adrian looks almost annular here because all of the outer spiral bands (except to the south) keep evaporating in the dry air.


That sat image looks like a Cat 5/4 hurricane.
Member Since: 13.11.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1207. Levi32
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:06 (GMT)
Green IR colors straight to the eyewall on the north side:

Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26465
1206. Levi32
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:05 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:

ATCF has had it at 90 knots/970 mb for a couple of hours now.


So they went with the exact Dvorak estimate as usual. I do wish they would fly planes into these more often.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26465
1205. aquak9
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:04 (GMT)
.
Member Since: 13.08.2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25516
1204. Levi32
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:04 (GMT)
Quoting Grothar:
I see no reason that Adrian will not become a high Cat 2 or low end Cat 3. It will probably only last for a small time. But there potential is still there. The Epac storms don't always reactive the way Atlantic storms do. It appears at the moment that the eyewall is trying to re-establish itself. As you can see on the Link animation, the convection is trying to rebuild towards the NorthEast. It may a little trouble doing it but it is is trying hard.

Link



It's trying, but definitely not rapidly intensifying. We will see how high it goes, but right now the core looks rather shabby. It's a great forecasting exercise on a system that's not threatening land.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26465
1203. Neapolitan
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:04 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:


If they upgrade it to Cat 2 right now it would be debatable without recon based on the satellite presentation. If Adrian clearly strengthens today then I will have been wrong about him staying below Cat 2, but we will see whether he does or not. I do think the NHC forecast of Adrian becoming a major is even more unlikely.

ATCF has had it at 90 knots/970 mb for a couple of hours now.
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
1202. LilyZ
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:03 (GMT)
Great blog!

Member Since: 2.04.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
1201. Levi32
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:02 (GMT)
It's a little funny. Adrian looks almost annular here because all of the outer spiral bands (except to the south) keep evaporating in the dry air.

Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26465
1200. Neapolitan
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:01 (GMT)
Quoting DARPAsockpuppet:
Just heard a radio ad in DFW that if you buy a tankless water heater in June and the temperature does not break 100 for the month of July it's free, businesses usually purchase some insurance when they run promotions like that just in case it does happen, I think they might be alright to just roll the dice on this deal, no chance, might as well have said it's free if the temp drops below freezing in July.

Given that the average July high in Dallas is 96, and the record's 111, I'd say the promo is a very safe one...
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
1199. Grothar
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:00 (GMT)
I see no reason that Adrian will not become a high Cat 2 or low end Cat 3. It will probably only last for a small time. But there potential is still there. The Epac storms don't always reactive the way Atlantic storms do. It appears at the moment that the eyewall is trying to re-establish itself. As you can see on the Link animation, the convection is trying to rebuild towards the NorthEast. It may a little trouble doing it but it is is trying hard.

Link

Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23755
1198. Levi32
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:59 (GMT)
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUN 2011 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 14:04:32 N Lon : 103:51:25 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 949.3mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 28 km

Center Temp : 14.3C Cloud Region Temp : -62.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 65km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.0 degrees

************************************************* ***



They may go with strong cat 2 hurricane


And that, is just ridiculous. Hands down. ADT goes wild if there is any kind of eye feature, and it's very unrealistic.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26465
1197. srada
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:59 (GMT)
Good Morning everyone.."wishing" for rain..

the models are well..NWS in wilmington, nc..

HAVE CONTINUED WITH NAM AND GFS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE
THINKING OF NO POPS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THEY DID NOT
IDENTIFY THE CURRENT PCPN....


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAIN
PLAYER FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUN INTO EARLY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH THIS FRONTAL FEATURE WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT WILL BE THE FATE OF THIS TROPICAL LOW/WAVE
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. NAM CONSISTENTLY REMAINS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER...FASTER AND CLOSER TO CAPE FEAR COAST. WITH THAT BEING
SAID THIS LOW SHOULD PASS WELL TO OUR EAST SOME TIME ON SUN WITH
LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON LOCAL WEATHER AS IT STANDS NOW..
Member Since: 17.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772
1196. Levi32
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:59 (GMT)
Latest Dvorak estimates are at 5.0 for Adrian, which corresponds to 90kts, a Cat 2.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26465
1195. HurricaneSwirl
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:58 (GMT)
Meanwhile in the West Pacific:

Member Since: 7.07.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1194. ProgressivePulse
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:57 (GMT)
I see the exceptional drought category has been lifted Nward to envelope Palm Beach & Martin counties, not surprised. We got a 1/4" in Jupiter yesterday but, with the high winds and dry air in place, it was merely a tease.
Member Since: 19.08.2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
1192. Thundercloud01221991
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:55 (GMT)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUN 2011 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 14:04:32 N Lon : 103:51:25 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 949.3mb/115.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 28 km

Center Temp : +14.3C Cloud Region Temp : -62.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 65km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.0 degrees

************************************************* ***



They may go with strong cat 2 hurricane
Member Since: 1.08.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1190. Grothar
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:52 (GMT)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


The normal NRL monterey site, http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html is coming up blank for me, but the backup site does work for me. You may get a security certificate warning when going to the backup site, but it is ok to proceed.


Thanks, I got it open finally. There must be something wrong with their site again. And thanks to you too, Hurrykane.
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23755
1189. Levi32
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:50 (GMT)
Quoting Vincent4989:

But then your forecast later is false, what will you do? :P


If they upgrade it to Cat 2 right now it would be debatable without recon based on the satellite presentation. If Adrian clearly strengthens today then I will have been wrong about him staying below Cat 2, but we will see whether he does or not. I do think the NHC forecast of Adrian becoming a major is even more unlikely.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26465
1188. Grothar
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:48 (GMT)
Quoting Chicklit:
sefla, so you are still in the sunshine state...why am i thinking you are in California?


Wouldn't sefla give you a hint. Like in South East Florida. LOL How is my Chicklit today. Now you know how I feel when they all pick on me.
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23755
1187. Vincent4989
9. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:47 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:
Sunrise visible images show the eastern side of Adrian outside of the eyewall is void of new convection, and only mid-level clouds are visible. This is likely due to dry air entrainment, which is keeping Adrian weaker. The NHC forecast of Cat 3 is one which I highly doubt will come true, and although they will likely upgrade to low-end Cat 2 with the next advisory due to the eye feature, I still see this as a top-end Cat 1 that will not get any stronger. Satellite and TPW products both indicate that dry air has invaded Adrian's core, and strengthening from here onward will be difficult.


But then your forecast later is false, what will you do? :P
Member Since: 13.11.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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