Tornadoes rip Massachusetts, killing 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:30 (GMT)

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The governor declared a state of emergency in Massachusetts last night after two rare and powerful tornadoes ripped through the state's third largest city, Springfield (population 150,000.) Separate tornadoes hit the city near 4:30 pm and 6:20pm EDT, killing four people, injuring 40, and causing extensive damage. The four deaths ties 2011 with 1973 as Massachusetts' deadliest tornado year since 1953, when 90 people died in an F-4 tornado that hit Worcester. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged seven preliminary reports of tornadoes in Massachusetts yesterday. The region was in their "Slight Risk" area for severe weather. The tornadoes were spawned by a large low pressure system centered over Canada that trailed a cold front southwards over New England. Record heat pushed northwards ahead of the cold front, with Newark, Washington D.C., Burlington, and Montpelier all recording record highs for the date. The contrast between the cold, dry air flowing south from Canada and the record warm, moist air ahead of the cold front created an extremely unstable atmosphere, helping fire off unusually intense thunderstorms over New England. And as we've seen so often this year, the jet stream over the thunderstorm region was unusually strong and had plenty of wind shear--a sharp change in wind speed and direction with height. This wind shear created shearing forces on the air over New England that helped get it spinning, creating rotating supercell thunderstorms capable of producing strong tornadoes.


Figure 1. Yesterday's tornadoes caused damage characteristic of at least an EF-2 tornado with 110 - 137 mph winds in Springfield, Massachusetts. Image credit: Springfield Falcons hockey team, via the cbslocal.com Boston website.


Video 1. Incredible tower cam view from wfsb.com of the June 1, 2011 Springfield, Massachusetts tornado crossing the Connecticut River. Another amateur video posted here on Youtube shows the tornado crossing I-91 in Springfield during rush hour (many swear words on this one!)

Springfield damage characteristic of an EF-2 tornado
Damage photos I've seen of the Springfield tornadoes show destruction characteristic of at least an EF-2 tornado with 111 - 135 mph winds. The damage photo above (Figure 1) shows the collapse of the top story walls of a brick building. According to the Storm Prediction Center's Description of Damage for this type of structure, the winds needed to do this type of damage typically range between 103 and 143 mph, or EF-2 speeds. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the damage gets rated EF-3, since there is a report of a 3-story building that collapsed (EF-3 winds are 136 - 165 mph.)


Figure 2. Satellite image taken at 6:01pm EDT June 1, 2011, showing the line of tornadic thunderstorms over Massachusetts, and Invest 93L near Tampa, Florida. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Massachusetts tornado history
One of yesterday's Springfield tornadoes pulled debris from Springfield and deposited it 45 miles to the east-northeast in Millbury, according to an NWS storm report. Powerful, long-track tornadoes like this are rare in New England. Most tornadoes in the region are small, weak, EF-0 and EF-1 twisters that touch down briefly and do minor damage. Only once every eight years, on average, does a strong or violent EF-3 or EF-4 tornado hit Massachusetts. According to the tornadohistoryproject.com, since 1951, there have been only eight strong to violent EF-3 or stronger tornadoes in Massachusetts:

May 29, 1995: An F4 tornado killed 3 and injured 24 in Great Barrington. The tornado tracked for 11 miles, and damage was estimated at more than $5 million.
Jun 22, 1981: An F3 tornado injured 3 people in Worcester County.
Sep 29, 1974: An F3 tornado injured one person as it hit Middlesex and Essex Counties.
Aug 28, 1973: An F4 tornado killed 4 and injured 36 in West Stockbridge as it tracked 9 miles from New York into Berkshire County.
Sep 13, 1971: An F3 tornado killed one person in Worcester County.
Oct 3, 1970: An F3 tornado killed one person in Worcester County. This tornado was on the ground for 35 miles.
Jun 9, 1953: The great 1953 Worcester tornado killed 90 and injured 1228 when it hit Worcester. The tornado had a path 40 miles long and up to 900 yards wide.
Jun 9, 1953: A separate F3 tornado hit Franklin in southern Massachusetts on the same day as the great Worcester tornado, injuring 17 people. The Franklin tornado had a path length of 28 miles.

Florida's surprise tropical disturbance 93L weakens
Invest 93L sped over Florida yesterday afternoon, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches over the center part of the state. Winds gusted as high as 29 mph at Daytona Beach as the storm came ashore. The storm has a rather unusual origin for a tropical disturbance--it began as a cluster of thunderstorms called a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that pushed across southern New England on May 30. On May 31, the MCS emerged over the ocean, and rotated clockwise towards Florida, steered by a large high pressure system centered over Kentucky. The center of the disturbance stayed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, a region of low pressure developed, and intense thunderstorms began to build on Tuesday. By Wednesday morning, 93L had grown organized enough to earn the designation 93L from NHC. However, passage over Florida disrupted 93L, and the storm is moving with such a fast forward speed--about 25 mph--that it has struggled to regroup. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and SSTs in the Gulf are about 27°C (81°F), 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, so it is possible that 93L could make a comeback. NHC is currently giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. I think these odds should be higher, at least 10%, given the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of 93L, as seen on satellite imagery. Steering currents will keep 93L moving quickly to the west-southwest today and Friday, and 93L should make landfall in Mexico just south of Brownsville, Texas, on Saturday afternoon.


Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation from 93L's passage over Florida yesterday.

Central Caribbean disturbance
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The computer models are generally showing only very slow development of the disturbance over the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday. Heavy rains have already hit Jamaica, where a flash flood watch is posted.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Catch my intro to the 2011 hurricane season on Internet radio
I'll be discussing the coming hurricane season on our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Thursday) at 4:30pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche will be hosting the show. We'll talk about the latest model runs, hurricane research, modeling accuracy, and hurricane climatology, and answer any questions listeners email in or call in. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com. We'll also discuss the Massachusetts tornadoes.

Jeff Masters

Tornado Over My House (stoneygirl)
Oh, what a crazy day. I live in Massachusetts and we had 5 tornadoes today and so far 4 people have been killed. I still can't believe it. I have never seen anything like this. Just so hard to believe.
Tornado Over My House
Double Trouble (shenandoah)
Two huge clouds forming just beyond the hill. The Civil War battle of New Market (May 15, 1864) lies just beyond the tree line.
Double Trouble
Devestating Storm (02066steve)
Last night's storm as it moves out to sea. South of Boston we were extremely fortunate with only strong winds & lightening. The same storm produced tornadoes, significant damage and loss of life in central MA.
Devestating Storm
6/1/11 Plainfield MA (jashearer3)
6/1/11 Plainfield MA

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1180. winter123
5. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 07:41 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:

It's over. Lets move along here folks.


As soon as I open my account. I'll get to it soon.

................................................. ............................................

93L.....


lol 93l cannot die...
Member Since: 29.07.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1762
1179. cg2916
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:37 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!!!!!!
Member Since: 21.12.2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
1178. Grothar
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:33 (GMT)
Quoting pottery:

I posted earlier, the fact that there is virtually no SAL Dust or Dry Air across the Eq. Atl.
That wave, and the ones coming behind will have pretty good conditions.


I saw that post the other day. It is true. They have been receiving a lot of light showers that seems to be keeping the dust at a minimum. How is pot today? Looks like someone called me 'elderly' earlier on the blog.
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23687
1177. stormpetrol
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:24 (GMT)
The actual COC fot the Caribbean AOI appears to around 12.5N/81W today looks at rgb loop, ascat also appears to show this also.
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
1176. stormpetrol
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:18 (GMT)
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
1175. NRAamy
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:14 (GMT)
Really it makes sense if you don't think about it.

that takes care of about 99.9% of this blog.....
Member Since: 24.01.2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
1174. blsealevel
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:13 (GMT)
U.S. Hazards Assessment

Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
1173. Patrap
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:13 (GMT)
co2now.org


394.35ppm


Atmospheric CO2 for May 2011

Preliminary data released June 1, 2011 (Mauna Loa Observatory: Scripps CO2)
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
1172. ncstorm
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:11 (GMT)
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Area of low pressure riding the trough, Frontal.


the 6zGFS has that same storm off the coast too..
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13430
1171. blsealevel
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:09 (GMT)
Looks like their saying drought conditions should be improving in needed areas and increasing in others June through August.

Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
1170. CyclonicVoyage
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 15:00 (GMT)
Quoting ncstorm:


Whats that off the VA/NC Coast?


Area of low pressure riding the trough, Frontal.
Member Since: 30.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
1169. ncstorm
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:57 (GMT)
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
12Z NAM @ 72hrs

300mb



850mb



Whats that off the VA/NC Coast?
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13430
1168. VAbeachhurricanes
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:53 (GMT)
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Sorry, didn't know the blog has posting restrictions. New here.


Wasn't you, you are fine :)
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
1167. CyclonicVoyage
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:49 (GMT)
You can see rather favorable conditions lie ahead in the NAM, This is the result @ 84hrs.
Member Since: 30.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
1166. CyclonicVoyage
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:47 (GMT)
12Z NAM @ 72hrs

300mb



850mb

Member Since: 30.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
1164. Chicklit
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:44 (GMT)


shear map encouraging for development anyway
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11034
1163. CyclonicVoyage
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:39 (GMT)


Shear slowly going bye bye.


Member Since: 30.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
1162. HuracanTaino
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:38 (GMT)
Quoting Twinkster:
can someone get rid of that long post it is very annoying
Sorry, didn't know the blog has posting restrictions. New here.
Member Since: 31.05.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 769
1161. marknmelb
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:36 (GMT)
Quoting Twinkster:
can someone get rid of that long post it is very annoying

click the "-" sign and hide it
Member Since: 17.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 406
1160. HimacaneBrees
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:36 (GMT)
I blew my forecast because the kinetic potential stratospheric vorticity field stratification transfer correlation was miscalculated or overlooked.


Really it makes sense if you don't think about it.





Member Since: 23.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 921
1159. VAbeachhurricanes
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:36 (GMT)
you had to quote it? really?
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
1158. Twinkster
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:35 (GMT)
can someone get rid of that long post it is very annoying
Member Since: 7.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 937
1156. HuracanTaino
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:34 (GMT)
Quoting cg2916:
93L

93L is pretty much RIP. It's just a naked swirl.



It does still have surprisingly good vorticity.

It has barely any divergence going with it.

Pre-94L

The low and the convection are starting to move together.



Remember that while the convection moves west, the low will stay in place for about 5 days.

I can spot a possible COC trying to form at about 15N, 77W.



It's becoming more vertically stacked. The pictures below are 850mb, 700mb, and 500mb from top to bottom.







The subtropical jet stream is still there creating shear, although it's starting to back off a little. As has been mentioned before, it is developing an anticyclone, which will help.

Interesting to note that only the NOGAPS does anything with this system. However, the GFS and ECMWF do show a system breaking off nd exiting the Caribbean via Puerto Rico.

If I got anything wrong, please correct me.
Agree, I'm not an expert but it seems everything is moving eastward, if anything develops it will continue to affect as it has in the past few days Hispaniola and exiting via Puerto Rico as GFS and ECWF suggests.
Member Since: 31.05.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 769
1155. jeffs713
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:33 (GMT)
1153. DARPAsockpuppet

Holy cow that's a long post... shorten it up (or link it?)
Member Since: 3.08.2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
1154. aspectre
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:30 (GMT)
1139 IKE "Batten down the hatches...93L is moving in...."

As of 12pmGMT today, 93L was 324miles(~521kilometres) from SouthPadreIslandInternationalAirport. If it heads towards Brownsville at its present travel speed of 10.5mph(16.9km/h), 93L will make landfall at ~6:52pmGMT(1:52pmCDT)tomorrow.

Still enough time to be dried out completely by the Texas barbeque...
...or to draw some moisture from the Gulf up into itself.
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1152. FirstCoastMan
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:29 (GMT)
Did 2008 have a named storm in June?
Member Since: 7.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 250
1151. SouthDadeFish
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:25 (GMT)
Unless the Caribbean disturbance becomes better organized by that time, they will not fly.
Member Since: 12.08.2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
1149. wunderkidcayman
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:15 (GMT)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 03 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-003

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N 79W AT 05/1800Z.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR 03/1800Z CANCELED AT 03/1130Z.


YES WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A FLIGHT INTO PRE-94L ABOUT TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9548
1148. Levi32
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:10 (GMT)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 03 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-003

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N 79W AT 05/1800Z.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR 03/1800Z CANCELED AT 03/1130Z.


Interesting. I wish they'd go ahead and tag it an invest so I can have my floater satellite -.- That's all I want lol.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26454
1147. GeoffreyWPB
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:09 (GMT)
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 03 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-003

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N 79W AT 05/1800Z.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR 03/1800Z CANCELED AT 03/1130Z.
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10576
1146. aspectre
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 14:02 (GMT)
Latest ATCF on 93L

Travel speed down to 10.5mph(16.9km/h) over the last 12hours, and max.sus.winds down to 15knots(27.8km/h). Still classified as a Low with a pressure of 1012millibars.
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1145. Levi32
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:59 (GMT)
I agree....Weather456 is greatly missed.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26454
1144. wunderkidcayman
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:59 (GMT)
Quoting cg2916:
93L

93L is pretty much RIP. It's just a naked swirl.



It does still have surprisingly good vorticity.

It has barely any divergence going with it.

Pre-94L

The low and the convection are starting to move together.



Remember that while the convection moves west, the low will stay in place for about 5 days.

I can spot a possible COC trying to form at about 15N, 77W.



It's becoming more vertically stacked. The pictures below are 850mb, 700mb, and 500mb from top to bottom.







The subtropical jet stream is still there creating shear, although it's starting to back off a little. As has been mentioned before, it is developing an anticyclone, which will help.

Interesting to note that only the NOGAPS does anything with this system. However, the GFS and ECMWF do show a system breaking off nd exiting the Caribbean via Puerto Rico.

If I got anything wrong, please correct me.

yep it seem correct
also I would like to add that the steering suggest that Pre-94L will shift east to about 77-75W before pulling NW-WNW
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9548
1143. cg2916
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:57 (GMT)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Sure do miss Wx456.... Thank goodness for the other "young whippersnappers" who have taken up the call....


I know!
Member Since: 21.12.2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
1142. BahaHurican
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:55 (GMT)
Anyhoo, gotta go get ready for work, so I'll see u guys later.... enjoy your day!
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
1141. BahaHurican
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:50 (GMT)
Sure do miss Wx456.... Thank goodness for the other "young whippersnappers" who have taken up the call....
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
1140. cg2916
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:48 (GMT)
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think that low dust, high SSTs, etc are going to have to work darned hard to beat the subsidence and shear from the upper jet for the next little while. Anybody think we have a serious chance at seeing formation before the mid-month period?


And, I have to admit 3 days into the season seems like a record for early "bust" forecast comments.... lol or did I miss one yesterday? :o)


Hey Baha! Haven't seen you in a while.

Yes, I think it's a record, although I think last year 456 might have been yelling at a troll for busting it in May.
Member Since: 21.12.2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
1139. IKE
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:48 (GMT)
Batten down the hatches...93L is moving in....


Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1138. jeffs713
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:48 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:
Good Post.

But is there a reason you left both CSU and UColorado off? Both have very good met programs and CSU is very well respected in tropical meteorology. (Right there with FSU in terms of the top tropical met school.)

CU's program isn't on the same level as CSU's, but it is up there. (no idea how they got left off) I totally forgot about FSU's program.
Member Since: 3.08.2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
1137. cg2916
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:47 (GMT)
Quoting hydrus:
Its not interesting. There was a cloud over my back yard and the NOGaPS developed it into a cat-2 hurricane.


LOL
Member Since: 21.12.2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
1136. BahaHurican
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:47 (GMT)
I think that low dust, high SSTs, etc are going to have to work darned hard to beat the subsidence and shear from the upper jet for the next little while. Anybody think we have a serious chance at seeing formation before the mid-month period?


And, I have to admit 3 days into the season seems like a record for early "bust" forecast comments.... lol or did I miss one yesterday? :o)
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
1135. hydrus
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:45 (GMT)
Quoting cg2916:
93L

93L is pretty much RIP. It's just a naked swirl.



It does still have surprisingly good vorticity.

It has barely any divergence going with it.

Pre-94L

The low and the convection are starting to move together.



Remember that while the convection moves west, the low will stay in place for about 5 days.

I can spot a possible COC trying to form at about 15N, 77W.



It's becoming more vertically stacked. The pictures below are 850mb, 700mb, and 500mb from top to bottom.







The subtropical jet stream is still there creating shear, although it's starting to back off a little. As has been mentioned before, it is developing an anticyclone, which will help.

Interesting to note that only the NOGAPS does anything with this system. However, the GFS and ECMWF do show a system breaking off nd exiting the Caribbean via Puerto Rico.

If I got anything wrong, please correct me.
Its not interesting. There was a cloud over my back yard and the NOGaPS developed it into a cat-2 hurricane.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19501
1134. atmoaggie
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:43 (GMT)
Quoting jeffs713:

UW's products are actually very good, and bear in mind that all of these shear and SAL measurements are done from SPACE. As in anywhere from 250 to 23000 MILES up. Its like looking at the rind of an apple from 200 yards away, and asking the molecular orientation. Its far from exact. Is it a good guideline? Yes. Is it a decent substitute for physical measurements with a balloon? Absolutely not. Its also some of the best we have. So unless you have a better alternative, please step off that soapbox.

Also, in regards to UW not knowing much about tropical meteorology... puh-leeze. Physical location of a university has very little to do with their expertise. Here are locations of some of the better-known met schools in the states:
Univ. of Wisconsin
Univ. of Michigan (Dr. M's alma mater)
Penn State Univ.
Texas A&M Univ.
Univ. of Miami
Univ. of Oklahoma
North Carolina State Univ.
Cornell Univ.
Univ. of Kansas
Purdue Univ.
UCLA
Iowa State
Valparaiso
Univ. of Arizona

So, as you can see... location in terms of college quality = nothing.
Good Post.

But is there a reason you left both CSU and UColorado off? Both have very good met programs and CSU is very well respected in tropical meteorology. (Right there with FSU in terms of the top tropical met school.)
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1133. cg2916
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:38 (GMT)
93L

93L is pretty much RIP. It's just a naked swirl.



It does still have surprisingly good vorticity.

It has barely any divergence going with it.

Pre-94L

The low and the convection are starting to move together.



Remember that while the convection moves west, the low will stay in place for about 5 days.

I can spot a possible COC trying to form at about 15N, 77W.



It's becoming more vertically stacked. The pictures below are 850mb, 700mb, and 500mb from top to bottom.







The subtropical jet stream is still there creating shear, although it's starting to back off a little. As has been mentioned before, it is developing an anticyclone, which will help.

Interesting to note that only the NOGAPS does anything with this system. However, the GFS and ECMWF do show a system breaking off nd exiting the Caribbean via Puerto Rico.

If I got anything wrong, please correct me.
Member Since: 21.12.2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
1132. Bayside
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:37 (GMT)
Quoting jeffs713:

UW's products are actually very good, and bear in mind that all of these shear and SAL measurements are done from SPACE. As in anywhere from 250 to 23000 MILES up. Its like looking at the rind of an apple from 200 yards away, and asking the molecular orientation. Its far from exact. Is it a good guideline? Yes. Is it a decent substitute for physical measurements with a balloon? Absolutely not. Its also some of the best we have. So unless you have a better alternative, please step off that soapbox.

Also, in regards to UW not knowing much about tropical meteorology... puh-leeze. Physical location of a university has very little to do with their expertise. Here are locations of some of the better-known met schools in the states:
Univ. of Wisconsin
Univ. of Michigan (Dr. M's alma mater)
Penn State Univ.
Texas A&M Univ.
Univ. of Miami
Univ. of Oklahoma
North Carolina State Univ.
Cornell Univ.
Univ. of Kansas
Purdue Univ.
UCLA
Iowa State
Valparaiso
Univ. of Arizona

So, as you can see... location in terms of college quality = nothing.


Madison, WI was a great place to grow up! My father was a Prof. of Meteorology/atmospheric science at UW, but mainly did research at SSEC. I grew up watching (not litterally) their products being designed and tested, for example on the ER-2 (science version of the U-2 spy plane). Though retired from UW and NASA, he still works with both. I share stories about this blog a lot, escpecially the promising students like Levi and even the ones that gloat when they get it right and annoy me. I didn't realize that I would have such an interest in meteorology until it was a bit late to change careers, plus growing up I wanted to be something other than what my father and brother were... silly me.
Member Since: 4.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
1130. Levi32
3. kesäkuuta 2011 klo 13:33 (GMT)
Good morning all.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, June 3rd, with Video
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26454

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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