Tornadoes, severe thunderstorms kill nine in OK, AR; more severe weather today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 15. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 13:07 (GMT)

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Tornadoes and deadly severe thunderstorms tore through Oklahoma and Arkansas last night, killing at least nine people. The action began Thursday afternoon, when a powerful spring low pressure system intensified over western Kansas. The intensifying storm pulled in frigid Canadian air behind it and warm, moist Gulf of Mexico air in front of it, and where two air masses collided over eastern Oklahoma, a powerful cold front spawned a dangerous squall line of severe thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon. Doppler radar indicated the spinning signatures of mesocyclones inside numerous thunderstorms, and the National Weather Service began issuing multiple tornado warnings. At 6:22pm CDT, storm spotters reported a wide "stovepipe" shaped tornado had touched down in south-central Oklahoma four miles south of Milburn in Johnson County. Huge hailstones up to 4 1/2 inches in diameter--the size of softballs--began pelting the ground. The tornado roared to the northeast, ripping through the small town of Tushka, population 350, at 7:23pm. The powerful twister ripped off the roof of the local high school and destroyed dozens of buildings in Tushka, killing two people and injuring 25. The tornado moved over farmland and dissipated a short time later, but the squall line that spawned the tornado moved into Arkansas overnight, spawning severe thunderstorm winds that killed seven more people. The nine deaths made yesterday the deadliest severe weather outbreak of 2011.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of the Tushka, Oklahoma tornado at 7:16pm CDT in Atoka County, seven minutes before the twister hit the town. Note the classic hook-shaped echo of the parent mesocyclone in the rotating severe thunderstorms that spawned the tornado.


Figure 2. Doppler radar velocity image of the Tushka, Oklahoma tornado at 7:16pm CDT in Atoka County, seven minutes before the twister hit the town.

The Tushka tornado brings this year's tornado death tally to five people, which is low for mid-April. In total, yesterday's severe weather outbreak had 10 tornado reports, 122 instances of large hail greater than 2" in diameter, and 91 reports of damaging winds. The action shifts eastwards to Mississippi and Alabama today, which NOAA's Storm Prediction Center have placed under its "moderate risk" region for severe weather. This is the same risk Oklahoma had during yesterday's tornado outbreak. You can follow today's outbreak using our severe weather page and interactive tornado map. This map now shows links to Youtube storm chaser videos of tornadoes, plus any wunderphotos taken of the storm. Tornado warnings have already been posted in Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi today. A report visible on our tornado page indicates that a tornado touched down just west of Jackson, Mississippi near noon EDT today, crossing Interstate 20 and ripping the roof off of a bank in Clinton, MS.


Figure 3. Satellite image from 23:03 UTC (5:03pm CDT) April 14, 2011, showing the strong low pressure system over the Plains that brought yesterday's severe weather outbreak. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 4. Storm chaser video of the Tushka tornado.

Jeff Masters

Rope Tornado 1 (rrose1)
Rope Tornado 1
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557. beell
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 16:01 (GMT)
Quoting seflagamma:
new blog has been up for awhile...


Thanks gamma-i'm such a ditz!
Member Since: 11.09.2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15356
556. seflagamma
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 16:00 (GMT)
new blog has been up for awhile...
Member Since: 29.08.2005 Posts: 294 Comments: 40840
555. beell
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 15:57 (GMT)
Won't be long before things get crankin'. This is still a very strong system.

click for discussion



There's your bulls-eye between the warf front and cold front boundaries.
Sfc chart valid 1PM EDT.

Member Since: 11.09.2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15356
554. IKE
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 15:54 (GMT)

Quoting aquak9:
Ike- if you're in the mood to wash cars, my poor 'Ru needs a bath. Bought it Aug 16, hasn't been bathed since.
8 months? :(
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
553. aquak9
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 15:49 (GMT)
Quoting Dodabear:


Probably explains why you aren't getting any rain.


bwahahaaaa!!
Member Since: 13.08.2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25514
552. Dodabear
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 15:48 (GMT)
Quoting aquak9:
Ike- if you're in the mood to wash cars, my poor 'Ru needs a bath. Bought it Aug 16, hasn't been bathed since.


Probably explains why you aren't getting any rain.
Member Since: 28.07.2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 2279
551. aquak9
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 15:34 (GMT)
Ike- if you're in the mood to wash cars, my poor 'Ru needs a bath. Bought it Aug 16, hasn't been bathed since.
Member Since: 13.08.2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25514
550. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 15:25 (GMT)
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52390
549. AllyBama
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 14:53 (GMT)
Quoting PcolaDan:


That's about .01 more than I got. :(


lol...more than I got too!
Member Since: 3.08.2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20614
548. FirstCoastMan
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 14:53 (GMT)






Member Since: 7.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 250
547. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 14:50 (GMT)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F
0:00 AM FST April 17 2011
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 15F (1000 hPa) located at 23.8S 163.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southeast at 10 knots. Position poor based on infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Organization has slightly improved in the last 12 hours. Convection has not increased or deepened much and confined to the southeast of low level circulation center. System lies in a moderate to highly sheared environment. CIMSS indicates decreasing shear along the forecast path. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. System steered south southeast by northwest deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern less than 0.75 degree, Yielding DT=2.5, MET=PT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Global models agree on south southeast track with little intensification.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
546. atmoaggie
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 14:38 (GMT)
Quoting blsealevel:


Going to be a nice day in South Louisiana
Just for us procrastinators out their,Don't wait to start your preparationsons and reinforcing your supply's for the up and coming storm season check your generators if you have one ect. we know the drill

Thanks
blsealevel
Yep. Great weather for what I am walking out the door to do.
Wash cars, caulk gaps in a detached workshop, and finish building a deck.

And no rain here (Covington). Well, we did have a moderate rain for 20 seconds.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
545. pottery
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 14:27 (GMT)
Hydrus, Aspectre, Nea and others..

Thanks for the comments on the oil Exploration and Earthquake relationships.
Interesting stuff there, and lots more to learn.
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23107
544. IKE
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 14:04 (GMT)

Quoting aquak9:
RTLSNK- that's great news, a bit of comfort knowing that ya'll can sleep safely, yet still be safe and prepared. Glad it all went well- bringing the family together during a time of high stress.

I think you should celebrate your family's safety by going out and buying some big sweet sticky cinnamon buns and coffee, and make it a family event.

a "de-stress" kinda thing, a happy ending together as a family.
Amen to that.

Just washed my car. I'm sure I'll have numerous bird droppings on it by Monday.

Looks like your rain moving in is drying up:(
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
543. Neapolitan
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 14:00 (GMT)
Accumulated radiation tops 17,000 microsieverts in Fukushima's Namie

The accumulated radiation level in Namie, 30 kilometers from the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, in the three weeks through Friday stood at 17,010 microsieverts, according to a tally released by the science ministry Saturday.

The accumulated levels during the period starting March 23 stood at 9,850 microsieverts in Iitate and 495 microsieverts in Minamisoma, both near the plant, it said. The readings compare with the level of 1,000 microsieverts that ordinary people in Japan can expect to be exposed to over one year.

The amount of radioactive cesium stood between 12.7 and 71.0 becquerels per liter of surface seawater near the plant on Monday and Wednesday and 10.1 becquerels at deeper levels on Monday, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology said.

Kyodo News Article...

What does this mean? That residents in Namie--again, 30 kilometers from the nuclear plant--have been exposed to as much as 17,000 μSv, about the same as if they had received 3,400 dental X-rays in the past five weeks. Now while it's true that this amount isn't generally considered enough to cause serious health problems, it's still a lot--and it's more than 200 times what the average person living within 16km of Three Mile Island received during that incident.

Nice.

(I also see that radioactivity in seawater inside the containment fence at Fukushima spiked today, rising from yesterdays 42 becquerels/cm3 to 260 becquerels/cm3--only about 6,500 times the legal limit. Doubly nice.)
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
542. blsealevel
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 13:50 (GMT)


Going to be a nice day in South Louisiana
Just for us procrastinators out their,Don't wait to start your preparationsons and reinforcing your supply's for the up and coming storm season check your generators if you have one ect. we know the drill

Thanks
blsealevel
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
541. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 13:44 (GMT)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERROL (29U)
9:00 PM WST April 16 2011
==========================================

At 8:00 pm WST, Tropical Cyclone Errol, Category Two (986 hPa) was located near 11.0S 124.7E, or 425 km north northwest of Kalumburu has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 4 knot.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
==================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center

Tropical Cyclone Errol continues to move towards the northwest away from the north Kimberley coast. The cyclone is not expected to affect the WA coast in the next 48 hours.

Errol is expected to cause GALES and heavy rain over the West Timor and Rote areas of Indonesia during tonight and on Sunday.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 10.6S 124.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 10.1S 123.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 10.4S 120.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 11.7S 117.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=========================

The current position is based on recent microwave imagery. The earlier 09 UTC fix was re-analyzed on the basis of a 0933Z Windsat microwave image.

The convective structure has shown signs of weakening in the last 3 hours. The 0728 UTC TMI microwave image showed a small, tightly wrapped convective band to the south, however, subsequent passes of tc_ssmis indicate weaker curvature of the southern band and development of a secondary band to the northwest of the system.

Dvorak analysis of EIR imagery has been difficult, with the LLCC located beneath a CDO. Current DT is 3.5 based on a 1.1 wrap. On a 24hr W- trend, the Pattern adjusted MET would be 2.5, however this is constrained to 3.5 based on a change of 0.5 over 6hrs. CI is maintained at 4.0 on initial weakening.

The system is expected to move towards the west-northwest, over SSTs of 28-29C, as a mid-level ridge develops to the south of the system. Consensus of NWP indicates reasonable confidence in the forecast west to northwest track in the next 72 hours.

Environmental wind shear remains favorable, with the 12 UTC CIMSS analysis of 3.3 m/s. Intensity is maintained at 55 knots for the next 6 hours, then weakening as Errol begins to interact with land. Errol may still be at category 2 intensity as it approaches the eastern Indonesian islands although there is a fair degree of uncertainty in the intensity forecast, particularly if the recent weakening trend continues. Shear is forecast to increase in the next 24 to 48 hours which will further weaken the system.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Cyclone Errol will be issued at 19:00 PM UTC.
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
540. aquak9
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 12:56 (GMT)
RTLSNK- that's great news, a bit of comfort knowing that ya'll can sleep safely, yet still be safe and prepared. Glad it all went well- bringing the family together during a time of high stress.

I think you should celebrate your family's safety by going out and buying some big sweet sticky cinnamon buns and coffee, and make it a family event.

a "de-stress" kinda thing, a happy ending together as a family.
Member Since: 13.08.2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25514
539. aspectre
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 12:56 (GMT)
AussieStorm quoting a weather bulletin "...Tropical Cyclone Errol continues to move towards the northwest away from the north Kimberley coast...."
527 BahaHurican "Isn't this like an absolutely weird direction for a storm to be going? talk about Errant Errol..."

Once ya get useta folks hangin' by their toes to keep from falling off the Earth as they walk about, who's to say what's weird?
Besides, hurricanes do occasionally take a southwestward jag.
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
538. IKE
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 12:50 (GMT)

Quoting PcolaDan:


That's about .01 more than I got. :(
I think it's getting more likely to.....wait for summer and afternoon thundershower time.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
537. PcolaDan
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 12:48 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
.01 inches of rain at my location from the storm system...inland Florida panhandle.


That's about .01 more than I got. :(
Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
536. RTLSNK
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 12:32 (GMT)
Morning everybody, I can assure you that buying a Midland WR100 Weather Radio is a great safety investment.

Ours went off at 0555 hrs this morning with a Tornado Warning. And it went off before the local fire department siren went off.

A super cell thunderstorm came through Macon with a Doppler Indicated Tornado at 0615 hrs.
That radio gave us 20 minutes to prepare, call our kids and warn them, and track the storm on the laptop with Wunderground and the local channel 13 news station that uses a radar system over google maps to show you what streets the storm is moving on.

Storm came in from the SW to NE just to the NW side of Macon about a quarter mile nw of our house. High winds, heavy rain, small hail, lots of lightning, lots of trees and power lines down, emergency crews and police are out checking for damage now.

Love that weather radio. :)
Member Since: 3.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 19571
535. IKE
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 12:31 (GMT)
QPF...Tuesday through Thursday.........


Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
534. IKE
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 12:24 (GMT)

Quoting aquak9:
You've got a small chance of rain today....


probably have a better chance of lizards...
Here it comes!!!!!!!! WOOHOO!!!!!!!


Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
533. aquak9
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 12:19 (GMT)
You've got a small chance of rain today....


probably have a better chance of lizards...
Member Since: 13.08.2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25514
532. aspectre
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 12:18 (GMT)
Lessee... 1st, the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs were airbursts. Very little of the energy actually moved the earth, just some downward pressure easily absorbed by topsoil compression.
They were only 20kiloton bombs... an amount of power routinely reproduced (and exceeded) during strip-mining operations through use of fuel-fertilizer explosives. Again very little effect on faults because the power displaces surface and near surface earth.

The effect of water-injection on faults is a little trickier... There was a strong enough correlation between the two that Basel halted a geothermal power project because of the sudden appearance of a large number of earthquakes. There are several others that have been either scaled back or halted because of similar observations (eg MammothMountain).
The creation of reservoirs is strongly correlated with 90 incidences of new seismic activity, and less convincingly to several stronger earthquakes (though the "coincidence"s in timing suggest a causal connection): eg filling the reservoir behind the ZipingpuDam and the 2008SichuanEarthquake (a couple of local geologists objected to the reservoir during dam construction due to fear that the fault line it straddled would be activated). Possibly due to fault lubrication along with wide-area overpressure continuously pressing down on the surface and the narrower high pressure columns produced as the water forces itself down the faults beneath.
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
531. IKE
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 12:08 (GMT)

Quoting aquak9:
g'morning weekend shift

Ike that's not precip...a lizard got into your rain gauge and thought it was an outhouse.

A very SMALL lizard.
lol.

Looks like it's going to stay dry here for at least the next 7 days.

You've got a small chance of rain today....

Today: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before
2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Breezy, with a south wind
between 13 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
530. aquak9
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 12:04 (GMT)
g'morning weekend shift

Ike that's not precip...a lizard got into your rain gauge and thought it was an outhouse.

A very SMALL lizard.
Member Since: 13.08.2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25514
529. IKE
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 12:01 (GMT)

Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
528. IKE
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 11:57 (GMT)
.01 inches of rain at my location from the storm system...inland Florida panhandle.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
527. BahaHurican
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 10:48 (GMT)
Quoting AussieStorm:


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued at 8:43 am WST on Saturday 16 April 2011

The Cyclone WARNING for coastal and island communities from Kalumburu to Kuri
Bay has been CANCELLED.

At 8:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Errol, Category 2 was estimated to be
255 kilometres north northwest of Troughton Island and
335 kilometres north northwest of Kalumburu and
moving northwest at 9 kilometres per hour away from the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Errol continues to move towards the northwest away from the
north Kimberley coast. GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are no
longer expected in coastal areas between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
ALL CLEAR: People in or near communities between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay,
including coastal and island communities are advised that the cyclone threat
has passed.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Errol at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 11.7 degrees South 125.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 989 hectoPascals

No further advices will be issued for this system unless it moves back towards
the coast. Please refer to the Tropical Cyclone Information Bulletin (IDW24000)
which will be issued by 3:00pm WST Saturday and the Tropical Cyclone Forecast
Track Map (IDW60281) for more details.
Isn't this like an absolutely weird direction for a storm to be going? talk about Errant Errol....
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
526. emcf30
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 10:14 (GMT)


Latest T.R.A.M
Member Since: 7.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
525. emcf30
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 10:06 (GMT)
hh
Member Since: 7.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
524. emcf30
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 09:59 (GMT)
Member Since: 7.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
523. emcf30
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 09:57 (GMT)
By John Shryock

The death toll in Alabama due to Friday and Saturday's severe weather is climbing. WSFA 12 News has confirmed three fatalities in Autauga County after an apparent tornado touched down around 11:00pm. There are numerous injuries in the 2200 block of County Road 59 area.

Chief Joe Sedinger with the Autauga County Sheriff's Department says it looks like the area took a direct hit.

Sedinger said there are 3 known fatalities and 7 known injuries, including 1 fireman. There are also numerous houses damaged, as was Boone's Chapel Baptist Church in the Posey's Crossroads Community. "We think we have everyone accounted for, but we are not real sure," Sedinger said.

The National Weather Service is also reporting one death in Marengo County, with at least four injuries. "An apparent tornado struck Bellington Circle approximately 6 miles south of Linden..."

In Washington County there are at least 3 confirmed fatalities.

There are numerous injuries being reported across the state, and at least 94 reports of tornadoes are recorded for the system dating back 24 hours.

Copyright 2011 WSFA 12 News. All rights reserved.
Member Since: 7.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
522. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 08:15 (GMT)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F
18:00 PM FST April 16 2011
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 15F (1000 hPa) located at 23.4S 161.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southeast at 10 knots. Position poor based on visible/infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Organization has slightly improved in past 12 hours. Convection has not increased or deepened much. System lies in a moderately sheared environment and is moving towards decreasing shear environment. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. System steered south southeast by northwest deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.3 wrap LOG10 spiral yielding DT=2.0, MET=PT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Global models agree on south southeast movement with little intensification.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
521. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 07:37 (GMT)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #12
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE 09-20102011
10:00 AM RET April 16 2011
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Depression 9 (995 hPa) located at 37.0S 49.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 NM from the center in the eastern semi-circle, reaching locally 45 kts and high seas in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
80 NM radius from the center extending up to 160 NM from the center in the eastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 40.5S 53.3E - 35 knots (Depression Extratropical)
24 HRS: 43.1S 59.5E - 35 knots (Depression Extratropical)
48 HRS: 42.0S 70.2E - 30 knots (Depression Extratropical)
72 HRS: 41.0S 79.9E - 25 knots (Se Dissipant)

Additional Information
======================

According to the last available satellite imagery, the low level circulation structure remains well organized. ASCAT data at 19.19z suggest a weakening of intensity, and the beginning of extratropical transition.

Convection is always present in the eastern semi-circle, but is expected to rapidly disappear as the vertical wind shear increase in the next hours. It is tracking regularly southeastward on the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge. System is expected to weaken rapidly but the wind field structure should become asymmetrical with winds by the order of gale force winds in the northern semi-circle up to Sunday night, according to the own movement of the system and by gradient effect.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory issued for this system.
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
520. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 07:23 (GMT)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERROL (29U)
3:00 PM WST April 16 2011
==========================================

At 2:00 pm WST, Tropical Cyclone Errol, Category Two (986 hPa) was located near 11.3S 124.7E, or 395 km north northwest of Kalumburu has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 5 knot.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
==================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center

Tropical Cyclone Errol continues to move towards the northwest away from the north Kimberley coast. The cyclone is not expected to affect the WA coast in
the next 48 hours.

Errol is expected to cause GALES and heavy rain over the West Timor and Rote areas of Indonesia from late Saturday.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 10.6S 123.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 10.3S 122.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 10.6S 120.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 11.4S 118.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=========================

The current position is based on visible imagery.

The 2155 UTC tc_ssmis image showed deep convection wrapping completely around the LLCC. An eye emerged on EIR imagery between 2330 UTC and 0130 UTC with DTs
between 4 and 4.5.

Tight convective banding on recent visible images gives a wrap -1.2 yielding a DT of 4.0. MET was 3.5 based on a D- trend and PAT was 3.5. With clear DTs, FT and CI were set to 4.0 with max winds [10 minute] of 55 knots.

The system is expected to move towards the west-northwest, over SSTs of 28-29C, as a mid-level ridge develops to the south of the system. Consensus of NWP indicates good confidence in the forecast west to northwest track in the next 72 hours.

Environmental wind shear is favorable, with the 06Z CIMSS analysis of 2.6 m/s. Intensity is maintained at 55 knots for the next 12 hours. Errol may still be at category 2 intensity as it approaches the eastern Indonesian islands although there is a fair degree of uncertainty in the intensity forecast. This is mainly due to the likelihood of dry air intrusion. The system is also likely to weaken due to the interaction with land. Shear is forecast to increase in the next 24 to 48 hours which will further weaken the system.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Cyclone Errol will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC.
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
519. TampaSpin
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 06:41 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
518. TampaSpin
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 06:35 (GMT)



Very SERIOUS Tornado on this RADAR.....OMG
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
517. IceCoast
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 06:06 (GMT)
Some bad storm reports coming in.

0115 VINEGAR BEND WASHINGTON AL *** 3 FATAL, 3 INJ ***
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMS THREE FATALITIES IN THE VINEGAR BEND/DEER PARK AREA. THE FATALITIES WERE A MOTHER AND HER TWO CHILDREN. THE FATHER (MOB)

0355 6 NW PRATTVILLE AUTAUGA AL ** 3 INJ ***
CR 40 SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. 3 HOMES DESTROYED, 3 CRITICAL INJURIES, 3 PEOPLE MISSING. EMA REPORTS SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IN THE ENTIRE AREA.
Member Since: 17.10.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
516. TampaSpin
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 05:51 (GMT)



Check out the Tornado on the Southern part of the RADAR......HOLLY COW!
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
515. TampaSpin
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 05:43 (GMT)
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1238 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...OPP...ANDALUSIA...

* UNTIL 130 AM CDT

* AT 1235 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ANDALUSIA...OR NEAR CAROLINA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LIBERTYVILLE...HEATH...SANFORD...HORN HILL...BABBIE AND ONYCHA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
514. Orcasystems
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 05:39 (GMT)
Quoting AussieStorm:


There have been some really good storm chaser videos posted on this system... keeping a close watch on how close it gets to Macon GA, its tracking that way.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
513. AussieStorm
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 05:36 (GMT)
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
512. AussieStorm
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 05:17 (GMT)


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued at 8:43 am WST on Saturday 16 April 2011

The Cyclone WARNING for coastal and island communities from Kalumburu to Kuri
Bay has been CANCELLED.

At 8:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Errol, Category 2 was estimated to be
255 kilometres north northwest of Troughton Island and
335 kilometres north northwest of Kalumburu and
moving northwest at 9 kilometres per hour away from the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Errol continues to move towards the northwest away from the
north Kimberley coast. GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are no
longer expected in coastal areas between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
ALL CLEAR: People in or near communities between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay,
including coastal and island communities are advised that the cyclone threat
has passed.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Errol at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 11.7 degrees South 125.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 989 hectoPascals

No further advices will be issued for this system unless it moves back towards
the coast. Please refer to the Tropical Cyclone Information Bulletin (IDW24000)
which will be issued by 3:00pm WST Saturday and the Tropical Cyclone Forecast
Track Map (IDW60281) for more details.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
511. sunlinepr
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 05:08 (GMT)
TC Errol



Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
510. TampaSpin
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 04:57 (GMT)
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1153 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHERN TALLAPOOSA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1245 AM CDT

* AT 1149 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
JACKSONS' GAP...OR 6 MILES EAST OF ALEXANDER CITY. DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE
HAS BEEN REPORTED THIS STORM!! TAKE COVER NOW TO PROTECT YOUR
LIFE!!

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAFAYETTE...STROUD...ROANOKE...NEW SITE...RIDGE GROVE...TRAMMEL
CROSSROADS...SPARKLING SPRINGS...WADLEY...PENTON AND ABANDA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
509. TampaSpin
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 04:50 (GMT)
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CONECUH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
CENTRAL COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
EASTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1245 AM CDT

* AT 1140 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BREWTON...OR NEAR I65 AND AL 41...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CASTLEBERRY AROUND 1150 PM CDT...
JOHNSONVILLE AND BOYKIN AROUND 1205 AM CDT...
BROOKLYN AROUND 1210 AM CDT...
CAROLINA AND RIVER FALLS AROUND 1230 AM CDT...
ANDALUSIA...LIBERTYVILLE AND HEATH AROUND 1235 AM CDT...
SANFORD AROUND 1240 AM CDT...
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
508. VAbeachhurricanes
16. huhtikuuta 2011 klo 04:49 (GMT)
Grow up its an internet site...
Anyway, can't wait for this to come to me tomorrow, looking forward to track some storms.
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5708

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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