The winter of 2010 - 2011 officially over, but winter-like weather continues

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 15:01 (GMT)

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It's March 1, and meteorological winter--the 3-month December, January, February period--is officially over. However, below-average temperatures and winter-like conditions will continue to affect most of the U.S. through the middle of March, and the groundhog definitely messed up his end-of-winter forecast when he failed to see his shadow on February 2 and predicted an early end to winter. While the latest computer forecast models are not showing any new Nor'easters will affect coastal New England in the coming ten days, Chicago and Detroit may see a major winter storm on Saturday, and additional significant snows are likely next week over the Upper Midwest. The potential for additional heavy snows over the Upper Midwest next week is a major concern for North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, where winter snows 200% - 400% of average have piled up a snowpack that is among the wettest on record. December-January precipitation ranked in the top ten over the past 116 years. If you take all the snow that is piled up an melt it all at once, it would amount to more than six inches of rain over large swaths of the region. The NWS is predicting a 10 - 30% chance that Fargo, Grand Forks, St. Paul, and portions of South Dakota will see their highest floods in history this spring when that massive snowpack melts.


Figure 1. The amount of water locked in the current snowpack if one were to melt all the snow on the ground. Snow depths in excess of 18 inches with a very high water content lie across much of the Upper Midwest. Image credit: NOAA/NOHRSC.

Severe weather, floods hit Midwest, Southeast
Severe weather swept through the Midwest and Southeast yesterday, with six reports of tornadoes in Tennessee, South Carolina, and North Carolina. One tornado-related death was reported in Franklin County, Tennessee. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 154 reports of high winds, and 24 reports of large hail. Heavy rains of 2 - 3 inches fell over a large swath of Indiana and Ohio, leading to moderate to major river flooding.


Figure 2. Severe weather reports logged by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center on February 28, 2011.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Special Effects (chopper5654)
More reported funnel clouds in the St. Louis, MO, area last night. These came in with a squall line bowing out just before midnight. The storms were moving about 70mph and carried straight-line winds to match....along with some rain-wrapped funnels. No reported touchdowns and isolated damage despite 40,000 people area-wide losing power for a few hours. And, it's not even spring! Ronnie's Cine is a long-standing movie plex in the South St. Louis County area at the intersections of Lindbergh Blvd. and Baptist Church Rd. Photo taken 2/28/11 and 900am.
Special Effects
Flooding 2-28-11 (RLR)
Auglaize River Flooding Wapakoneta Ohio
Flooding 2-28-11

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340. aspectre
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 14:17 (GMT)
Storm Chasers
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
339. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 14:04 (GMT)
Quoting hcubed:


So is dihydrogen monoxide.

And people die from too much of that, too...

don't fear the reaper man
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52265
338. lahcuts
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 13:56 (GMT)
An interesting experiment might be to develop a real, not modeled, simulation of the earth's atmosphere and the radiation the earth is exposed to without all the confusion of clouds, water vapor, aerosols, and what have you and simply measure the temperature as a function of the carbon dioxide level. If you can get this part correct you can then expand the experiment to evaluate some of the variables noted above. It may be difficult to simulate the radiative properties of the earth's surface and handle the convective problems but there must be some smart folks out there who could get all of the details straight. After all, the scientific method requires that experiments be designed and performed to test the hypothesis. Maybe this has been accomplished. Any comments?
Member Since: 9.11.2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
337. hcubed
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 13:48 (GMT)
Quoting weatherboy1992:
Mixon is correct. Carbon monoxide is odorless and tasteless.


So is dihydrogen monoxide.

And people die from too much of that, too...
Member Since: 18.05.2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
336. biff4ugo
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 13:17 (GMT)
Good Morning/evening

Wow those double tropical systems hitting Australia look stunning! Hope my Darwin friends are safe.

People keep confusing the Golden Silk Spiders with the Argiope spiders that are black white and yellow.
The golden silk spiders I see have very fuzzy legs and a big yellow "banana-ish" body. The Argiope spiders have a black white and yellow striped body and the distinctive white zig-zags in their web.

I like the trivorpalvisionwarper icon. I got one of those out of a magazine in the early 80's to put on my record player.
Member Since: 28.12.2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 1496
328. islander101010
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 11:24 (GMT)
here in brevard county they put the county offices way out in the old swamp (now drained). no one is going to ride their bikes out there. the court house and dmv dont even have bike racks. pitiful management guys at the bike shop know me and ive lasted as long as i have by riding not on the roads but on the side walks. dont want to be road kill.
Member Since: 11.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
327. aquak9
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 11:14 (GMT)
sigh...

really sad to see some of the posts here. People SO in love with themselves, so into the "look at me" attitude.

I had hoped he would grow up with a better temperament- instead, his testosterone and self-indulgence, as well as the bragging and boasting, makes me embarrassed to share the same state as he does.

He acts as though he is the only human on the planet. Dude, do you have a rich doting uncle who works for BP?

Your pride and close-mindedness will be your downfall, and when you finally try to pull yourself outta the ridiculous chest-beating hole you've pounded yourself into?

It's gonna be too late.
Member Since: 13.08.2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25507
326. greentortuloni
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 10:21 (GMT)
Actually, maybe a better example is biking. Someone was on here chortling about people in his neck of the woods have names for bikers: road kill, suicide machines, etc..

In that area, would it be hypocritical to try to get everyone to ride bikes without riding one yourself?

I've biked to work whenever possible. But I hate biking in traffic. As much as I think whoever posted that is just trying to fit in with whatever self image he needs, the poster had a point: it is dangerous to bike in America today. I wouldn't bike in a lot of cities. Also I personally find people who block traffic on bikes really annoying. I don't like their type of protest: randomly inflicted on ordinary people in some self righteous holier than thou attitude. Still, I don't feel hypocritical when I drive a car, because I don't have a choice. The choice is not survive in society today or drive a car. If society changed to make it easier to bike, I would almost always bike or bus it.
Member Since: 5.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
325. greentortuloni
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 10:11 (GMT)
Quoting aspectre:
284 Jedkins01 "Don't let them get under your skin, they are hopelessly blind... Carbon is in everything. Natural combustion is good for the environment. When humans are releasing tons of toxic chemicals into the air everyday, out of all things, carbon emissions is the big fuss. What a joke.
Speaking of carbon footprint... I plan on getting one of these bumper stickers --
' My Carbon Footprint Is Bigger than Yours ' -- for my Chevy truck.
"



One of the things about posting from europe is that I post when no one is on the blog. Prevents me from getting into pointless spirals of comments (usually). (It also prevents me from knowing whether I am being ignored for being an idiot or ignored because I'm never around to reply.)

So without trying to get into an argument, there are a lot of versions of hypocrisy but I think an analogy is better: we are a networked society. Pictures a bunch of climbers who have climbed so high that they have to stay roped togather or they will all individually perish, or at least most of them will perish. This is our society. I cannot make rubber or mine steel, I cannot make medicene or create a computer chip. Yes those things are essential for my lifestyle.

The same situation is true for everyone. If we were to all stop the machine that is society right now, we would not be able to produce the food, the water, the shelter, etc. that is required for everyone to survive. The result would be chaos. In short, we are roped togather.

Yet roped togather ars we are, it isn't hypocritical to say: "this is a bad direction, let us all collectively change direction." The response "oh, you're hypocritical because you can't won't unclip yourself from society and drop out (no pun intended)" isn't valid. It simply doesn't apply. The point is to change the direction of society because society is headed off a cliff.

I agree that leadership by example is one of the best ways of changing society. Before anyone asks: pellet stove, bike to work (looking forward to electric biking this summer), have chickens for eggs, grow a lot of my own food, vegitarian-ish (pepperoni pizza and the odd free range turkey on holidays). Also, local produce and local food except some fruits.

But leadership by example isn't the only way of changing society. Al Gore probably has done more for the world than all of the current crop of pseudo-conservative GOP/TP politicians there are. Aside from public awareness of global warming, he has also convinced a lot fo the world that Americans are not just spoiled brat all-you-can-eat consumers. That does a lot to help America internationally. it provides counter examples to anti-American rhetoric. In turn that helps people accept American brands like chevy, Microsoft, Google, facebook, Coca cola, boeing, etc. which in turn helps America export it's goods which helps the folow-the-pack-too-cool-to-care-about-global-warmi ng crowd continue to be able to afford pick up trucks and sub zero airconditioning.

Or think about it like this: if Al Gore flys a 747 carrying his personal hummer to a convention and wastes 60000 gallons of fuel, but he convinces 20,000 people to ride bikes to work once a week and each person saves 10 gallons of fuel per week. Well you do the math... actually he saves 10340000 gallons of fuel per year based on his actions.

It is a networked economy. Opinions about societal direction dont have a one to one relationship in most cases with individual actions in terms of hypocrisy. That said, I wish Gore didn't have a huge mansion. I personally dislike that as well. I also wish he bothered to be more image conscious because I think he preaches a bit to the choir. I wish he tried more to be common sense macho cowboyish because I think he would have a greater impact on the people who tend to make fun of conservation.
Member Since: 5.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
324. aspectre
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 09:09 (GMT)
284 Jedkins01 "Don't let them get under your skin, they are hopelessly blind... Carbon is in everything. Natural combustion is good for the environment. When humans are releasing tons of toxic chemicals into the air everyday, out of all things, carbon emissions is the big fuss. What a joke.
Speaking of carbon footprint... I plan on getting one of these bumper stickers --
' My Carbon Footprint Is Bigger than Yours ' -- for my Chevy truck.
"

Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
322. WaterWitch11
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 07:23 (GMT)
but the climate is a volatile topic almost like religion. everyone has their own opinions and will argue until blue in the face. you need to just state what you are finding and let it be. not personally address every person that makes a comment. if i was to put my true beliefs on this blog, they would probably think i was cookoo.
Member Since: 11.08.2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1485
320. WaterWitch11
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 06:36 (GMT)
my favorite way to be!

but the fighting has been bad lately, like it's right before hurricane season.
Member Since: 11.08.2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1485
319. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 06:33 (GMT)
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52265
318. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 06:31 (GMT)
Quoting WaterWitch11:
it's quite different from the ones you had before keeper
ya now a days after reading this blog iam dazed and confused so i figure it would be fitting
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52265
316. EYEStoSEA
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 06:09 (GMT)
Quoting WaterWitch11:
it's quite different from the ones you had before keeper


I know ! WaterWitch use your powers and put a spell on the K......lol....
Member Since: 16.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
315. EYEStoSEA
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 06:04 (GMT)

{*~*} ~~~~~~~
Member Since: 16.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
314. WaterWitch11
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 06:02 (GMT)
it's quite different from the ones you had before keeper
Member Since: 11.08.2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1485
313. WaterWitch11
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 06:00 (GMT)
has anyone seen the earth slide in bolivia?
Link


Member Since: 11.08.2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1485
312. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 05:57 (GMT)
i don't know maybe i will keep it i will see
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52265
311. geepy86
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 05:46 (GMT)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
presenting my new avatar for 2011 hurricane season

That's making me dizzy Keep. LOL
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1691
310. EYEStoSEA
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 05:41 (GMT)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
presenting my new avatar for 2011 hurricane season


This blog is already a little too dizzy at times, and I'm already feeling it \;
Member Since: 16.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1492
309. flsky
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 05:38 (GMT)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
presenting my new avatar for 2011 hurricane season

Relevance??
Member Since: 24.10.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1733
308. flsky
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 05:37 (GMT)
Where is the guy who post the good music??
Member Since: 24.10.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1733
307. TomTaylor
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 05:35 (GMT)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
presenting my new avatar for 2011 hurricane season

idk if I like it lol
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
306. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 05:34 (GMT)
presenting my new avatar for 2011 hurricane season
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52265
305. TomTaylor
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 05:28 (GMT)
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yep I definitely pride myself on ruining the environment.

Learn to live a little, get a life.

I too ruin the environment. Everyone does. I have a life.

The only difference between you and me, is you are happy to do it.
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
303. Jedkins01
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 05:25 (GMT)
Quoting TomTaylor:

You pride yourself in ruining the environment. cool


Carbon is in every living thing. It's also in Cyanide. Moral of the story? Carbon isn't always a good thing. CO2 is no exception, neither is CO, CH4, nor any hydrocarbons.


Yep I definitely pride myself on ruining the environment.

Learn to live a little, get a life.
Member Since: 21.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6867
301. TomTaylor
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 05:18 (GMT)
Quoting Jedkins01:


Don't let them get under your skin, they are hopelessly blind...

Carbon is in everything. Natural combustion is good for the environment. When humans are releasing tons of toxic chemicals into the air everyday, out of all things, carbon emissions is the big fuss. What a joke.


speaking of carbon footprint, I plan on getting one of these bumper stickers
:


For my Chevy truck:



You pride yourself in ruining the environment. cool


Carbon is in every living thing. It's also in Cyanide. Moral of the story? Carbon isn't always a good thing. CO2 is no exception, neither is CO, CH4, nor any CFCs.
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
300. Skyepony (Mod)
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 05:18 (GMT)
Fisky~ I suspect Midwest flooding will spike our cereal/flour/bread prices mid to late spring. I hope they learned some things from 2009.


Miami~ A low or storm over Darwin the last few weeks has affected SOI, keeping it positive even though La Nina is crashing. A good point in why SOI isn't the absolute predictor. Though these storms have had their effect pulling the overly warm pool well south of the equator back toward Australia a touch. Region 1,2 cooled slightly & ESPI dropped to -.91. An expected step down in the overall trend up.

Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36107
298. Jedkins01
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 05:13 (GMT)
ok apparently that image isn't working... hmm

ok, here it is, this is what an actual banana spider looks like, its other name is the Brazilian wandering spider, as I said, they are extremely poisonous. They do occasionally end up in Florida on banana shipments.
Member Since: 21.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6867
296. Jedkins01
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 05:06 (GMT)
Quoting Ossqss:


Did ya know a spider you all showed earlier as the Banana/Garden spider, was actually a Golden Orb weaver?

Those guys made the cross hairs used in the aiming devices (sights) used in the 2nd world war. Google it and see for yourself. I actually raised one which now resides in the Linger Lodge showcase of local bugs and animals. No BS, but a long story on raising it :)



Yep I knew it! Ive always been fascinated by their golden spider silk!!

wow, I did not know they used the silk for cross hairs in WWII though!

Many people mistake that spider for a banana spider, but this is what a banana spider actually looks like:
Member Since: 21.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6867
294. flsky
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 05:02 (GMT)
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


I'd agree with this, which Dr. M referred to

National Hydrologic Assessment

Thanks! Hadn't seen this graphic previously.
Member Since: 24.10.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1733
292. flsky
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 04:58 (GMT)
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Hey sky, where's DBS?

Daytona Beach Shores, FL
Member Since: 24.10.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1733
291. flsky
2. maaliskuuta 2011 klo 04:57 (GMT)
Quoting Jedkins01:


Don't let them get under your skin, they are hopelessly blind...

Carbon is in everything. Natural combustion is good for the environment. When humans are releasing tons of toxic chemicals into the air everyday, out of all things, carbon emissions is the big fuss. What a joke.


speaking of carbon footprint, I plan on getting one of these bumper stickers
:


For my Chevy truck:



Ignorance is sad, and seems currently pervasive.
Member Since: 24.10.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1733

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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