Yet another record snowstorm wallops New England

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 27. tammikuuta 2011 klo 15:08 (GMT)

Share this Blog
7
+

The epic winter of 2010 - 2011 delivered yet another major pounding to New England yesterday and today, and residents are digging out today from the winter's third record snowstorm. The heaviest snows from this newest onslaught hit coastal New Jersey and New York City, where snowfall rates up to 4 inches per hour were accompanied by hundreds of lightning strikes. The 19.0" inches that fell in New York City's Central Park made it the 8th largest snowstorm for the city in recorded history. When combined with the heavy snows of 1 - 2 feet that fell during the Nor'easter just two weeks ago, January 2011 now ranks as the snowiest January on record in New York City, Newark, Bridgeport, and Hartford.


Figure 1. Scene from Times Square, New York during the peak of the January 26 - 27, 2011 Nor'easter. Near midnight, snowfall rates reached 4 inches per hour in thunderstorms. Image credit: Earthcam.com web cam, and captured by Christopher C. Burt.

Remarkably, five of New York City's top-ten snowfalls of the past 142 years have occurred in the past decade (highlighted in the list below.) According to the National Weather Service, the top ten snowstorms on record for New York City's Central Park since 1869 should now read:

1) 26.9" Feb 11-12, 2006
2) 26.4" Dec 26-27, 1947
3) 21.0" Mar 12-14, 1888
4) 20.8" Feb 25-26, 2010
5) 20.2" Jan 7-8, 1996
6) 20.0" Dec 26-27, 2010
7) 19.8" Feb 16-17, 2003
8) 19.0" Jan 26-27, 2011
9) 18.1" Mar 7-8, 1941
10) 17.7" Feb 5-7, 1978

Philadelphia, PA picked up 15.1", from today's storm, making it the tenth largest snowstorm in city history. Philadelphia has now had four of its top ten snowfalls in just over a year--a remarkable string of storms, considering record keeping began 127 years ago, in 1884. So far this winter, Philadelphia has picked up 37.8" of snow. An average winter should have had just 7.5" by now.

The top ten snowstorms on record for Philadelphia:

1. 30.7", Jan 7-8, 1996
2. 28.5", Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
3. 23.2", Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
4. 21.3", Feb 11-12, 1983
5. 21.0", Dec 25-26, 1909
6. 19.4", Apr 3-4, 1915
7. 18.9", Feb 12-14, 1899
8. 16.7", Jan 22-24, 1935
9. 15.8", Feb 10-11, 2010
10. 15.1", Jan 26-27, 2011
10. 15.1", Feb 28-Mar 1, 1941


Figure 2. Change in snow depth for the 24 hours ending at 1am today shows that an area of 12 - 20" of snow fell from just southwest of Philadelphia, PA to near Bridgeport, CT. The heaviest snows had not quite ended by this time in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. Up to two inches of snow melted in upstate New York (orange colors) during this period. Image credit: NOAA.

Just an ordinary-strength Nor'easter
The Nor'easter was of very ordinary strength, with a central pressure of just 987 mb this morning as it passed Cape Cod. Typically, a Nor'easter needs to have a central pressure in the 960 - 980 mb range to dump the kind of heavy snows that this storm generated. The storm did not have a widespread area of strong winds, though Provincetown on Massachusetts' Cape Cod recorded sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 60 mph, at 2am EST this morning. Only minor coastal flooding was reported in New England from the storm. However, like the January 12 - 13 Nor'easter of just two weeks ago, this week's rather ordinary-strength Nor'easter managed to assemble the perfect mix of conditions needed to transport moisture to a region of the storm highly favorable for heavy snow formation. Many heavy snow bands with snowfall rates up to 4 inches per hour formed over New England, with some of these bands intense enough to generate lightning and thunder.

Some selected city snowfall amounts for the January 26 - 27, 2011 storm:

NYC Central Park, NY 19.0"
Newark, NJ 18.9"
Philadelphia, PA 15.1"
Wilmington, DE 10.4"
Providence, RI 10.5"
Boston, MA 9.9"

An unusual Nor'easter for a La Niña year
This winter, we are experiencing La Niña conditions in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific, meaning that cold waters have upwelled from the depths off the coast of South America, cooling a huge region of Pacific waters to below-average levels. In most winters, the presence of La Niña acts to deflect the jet stream in such a way the the predominant storm track takes winter storms into the Pacific Northwest, then down through the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley, particularly so in mid- late-winter. According to Dr. David A. Robinson, the New Jersey State Climatologist and Chairman of the Department of Geography at Rutgers University, this sort of flow pattern keeps New England safe from Nor'easters, as storms tend to move from the Ohio Valley northeastwards into Canada, keeping New England in a warm southwesterly flow of air. However, both the December 26 and today's storm defied climatology, and gave the mid-Atlantic and New England one of their worst poundings on record for a La Niña Nor'easter. These two storms were the first Nor'easters in at least ten La Niña winters, dating back to 1970, to bring 10" of more of snow to New Jersey, according to Dr. Robinson. Philadelphia got 12.4" from the December 26 Nor'easter and 15.1" from today's storm. The National Weather Service stated in December that prior to this winter, only one La Niña winter in the past century has had a storm that dumped more than 10" of snow on the city--a December 1909 Nor'easter.


Figure 3. The annual average number of snowstorms with a 6 inch (15.2 cm) or greater accumulation, from the years 1901 - 2001. A value of 0.1 means an average of one 6+ inch snowstorm every ten years. Image credit: Changnon, S.A., D. Changnon, and T.R. Karl, 2006, Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Snowstorms in the Contiguous United States, J. Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 45, 8, pp. 1141-1155, DOI: 10.1175/JAM2395.1.

Why such an unusual number of top-ten snowstorms for the Northeast in recent years?
The Northeast has seen an inordinate number of top-ten snowstorms in the past ten years, raising the question of whether this is due to random chance or a change in the climate. This year's record snow storms were all the more unusual, as they came during La Niña conditions in the Eastern Pacific. Is it random chance, or did climate change play role? Well, it could be either, and we simply don't know the answer. A study by Houston and Changnon (2009) on the top ten heaviest snows on record for each of 121 major U.S. cities showed no upward or downward trend in these very heaviest snowstorms during the period 1948 - 2001. It would be interesting to see if they repeated their study using data from the past decade if the answer would change. As I stated in my blog post, The United States of Snow in February, bigger snowstorms are not an indication that global warming is not occurring. The old adage, "it's too cold to snow", has some truth to it, and there is research supporting the idea that the average climate in the U.S. is colder than optimal to support the heaviest snowstorms. For example, Changnon et al. (2006) found that for the contiguous U.S. between 1900 - 2001, 61% - 80% of all heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches occurred during winters with above normal temperatures. The authors also found that 61% - 85% of all heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches occurred during winters that were wetter than average. The authors conclude, "a future with wetter and warmer winters, which is one outcome expected (National Assessment Synthesis Team 2001), will bring more heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches than in 1901 - 2000." The authors found that over the U.S. as a whole, there had been a slight but significant increase in heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches than in 1901 - 2000. If the climate continues to warm, we should expect an increase in heavy snow events for a few decades, until the climate grows so warm that we pass the point where winter temperatures are at the optimum for heavy snow events.

I've done some other posts of interest I've done on snow and climate change over the past year:

Hot Arctic-Cold Continents Pattern is back (December 2010)
The future of intense winter storms (March 2010)
Heavy snowfall in a warming world (February 2010)

Jeff Masters

My vehicle (Hamptonite)
I don't think I am going anywhere this morning.
My vehicle
Snow on the Lens (JCFindley)
Hey, had to get out of the warm truck at some point.....
Snow on the Lens
More Snow 2 (jerseyshoretoo)
More Snow 2

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 449 - 399

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9Blog Index

449. Xyrus2000
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 16:48 (GMT)
Quoting Skyepony:
Awesome SDO video of major eruptions on the sun today.

I don't know what is harder to believe.. that it has been 25 years or a wound could be so fresh after all that time. My thoughts are with all the old guys that put their life into launching these & what they will suffer through today.. The exploding shuttle pic is one I could do without seeing.


I was on my way to the elementary school principal's office because in a journal for class I had written about a dream I had of the space shuttle exploding. I caught a glimpse of a TV screen in the gym where everyone had gathered to watch the launch on my way there. :P

And no, I don't attribute it to psychic nonsense or premonition. I don't believe in the metaphysical, nor religion, nor that humans have any special powers. I had been talking with the science teacher the previous day because I was curious about the fuel used in the shuttle. She explained that other than the SRBs, it was liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen. Having recently singed myself in a recent hydrogen producing experiment using a home chemistry set (I tried to make a lot more hydrogen than the experiment said to try), I gained a whole new level of respect for the astronauts for basically strapping themselves to a giant fuel bomb.

Some things just get stuck in kids heads. Even though I noted in the journal that the dream was probably inspired by my chemistry experiment gone wrong and the fact that hydrogen and oxygen can make a very big boom, the teacher thought it was in bad taste (or there was something wrong with me) considering the launch was coming up.

Things weren't quite the same between me and the teacher after that.

At any rate, I remember the event and the rest of the school year afterward because it was one of the most awkward and unpleasant school years I remember.
Member Since: 31.10.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1225
448. hydrus
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 16:25 (GMT)
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Agreed. Stunned silence is what I recall most vividly. I think everyone I was around that morning knew instinctively that there could be no survivors. It took some time for folks' emotions to come out.
I do remember watching the weather forecast before the launch. They did mention that the cold could postpone the flight.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19533
447. Xyrus2000
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 16:13 (GMT)
Quoting alfabob:


Ah but quantum mechanics is 100% correct as it describes the probability of finding an electron in a potential field created by a positive nuclei. This has been verified to the highest of lab results and is the reason why modern electronics exist. Just because you don't understand 4-dimensional vector calculus doesn't mean it is inaccurate. The same goes for any other models which process data correctly, as the point of a model is to match reality usually by differential equations. Not saying that the models for climate change are 100% correct, but they give general results which indicate AGW as it is commonly defined.


It's not 100% correct. It is correct enough for our current purposes and works to explain the observations. But it is no more correct than Newtonian mechanics when compared to special and general relativity.

Eventually a new theory and model will evolve that will resolve the differences between relativity and QM that will show that QM alone was good, but the new model is better. Beyond that we may finally discover the GUT and it will surpass them.

Just because a particular model or equation is giving the correct results does not mean that something better won't be discovered. It means that, at the moment based on our best research that this is the best we have to work with.

The same goes with pretty much any science branch. We develop models and theories and keep building on them to make them more complete.

Your not going to find rigorous proofs in science.
Member Since: 31.10.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1225
446. NttyGrtty
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 16:12 (GMT)
Morn'n all. Sunny and 60 degrees in Navarre. Conflicted...stay at work and look at it or go to the golf course and play in it...hmmmmmmm
Member Since: 11.02.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 786
445. PSLFLCaneVet
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 16:10 (GMT)



That is an awesome clip. Thanks.
Member Since: 23.07.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
444. PSLFLCaneVet
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 16:09 (GMT)
Quoting Skyepony:
Awesome SDO video of major eruptions on the sun today.

I don't know what is harder to believe.. that it has been 25 years or a wound could be so fresh after all that time. My thoughts are with all the old guys that put their life into launching these & what they will suffer through today.. The exploding shuttle pic is one I could do without seeing.



Excellent points. Morning, Skye.
Member Since: 23.07.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
443. Skyepony (Mod)
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 15:32 (GMT)
Awesome SDO video of major eruptions on the sun today.

I don't know what is harder to believe.. that it has been 25 years or a wound could be so fresh after all that time. My thoughts are with all the old guys that put their life into launching these & what they will suffer through today.. The exploding shuttle pic is one I could do without seeing.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36085
442. PSLFLCaneVet
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 15:20 (GMT)
Quoting PakaSurvivor:
I think many us knows where we were that day. I was a young Technical Sergeant flying on a C-5 out of Dover heading into Standiford Field, Ky when the crew announced the loss of the space shuttle. Upon arrival, I was one of many that ran over to Hawthorne Avaition and watched the news cast over and over. Sad day then as it is now.



Agreed.
Member Since: 23.07.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
441. PakaSurvivor
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 15:03 (GMT)
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Agreed. Stunned silence is what I recall most vividly. I think everyone I was around that morning knew instinctively that there could be no survivors. It took some time for folks' emotions to come out.
I think many us knows where we were that day. I was a young Technical Sergeant flying on a C-5 out of Dover heading into Standiford Field, Ky when the crew announced the loss of the space shuttle. Upon arrival, I was one of many that ran over to Hawthorne Avaition and watched the news cast over and over. Sad day then as it is now.
Member Since: 20.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
440. PSLFLCaneVet
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 15:00 (GMT)



Well put, Nea.
Member Since: 23.07.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
439. Neapolitan
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 14:55 (GMT)
I was at the Cape that morning (well, standing on the western bank of the Indian River in Titusville, actually). I almost didn't leave Fort Myers to go; I figured it would be too cold, and I didn't want to make the six-hour round trip only to see the launch scrubbed. But I went anyway; I was off of work that day, and my car was running well.

My chief memory is of watching those two booster rockets speeding wildly away on their own, leaving that elongated fireball behind, that fireball with its many sad smoke tendrils arching downward to the sea. Most of the crowd around me watching at first seemed to think it was normal, though some who'd seen multiple launches pretty much knew the machine had blown up. The excited chatter one hears after any takeoff morphed into curious puzzlement, then words of dismay and disbelief, and then there was only the enormous silence of dawning realization punctuated by the small sounds of someone on TV talking about the incident, and the occasional tightly-bundled child asking his mother or father why everyone was crying.

There have been 132 shuttle flights; two have ended in the total loss of craft and crew. That means any astronaut realistically has a 1 in 66 chance of not making it home. Terrible odds. (Even more terrible: 40% of the fleet has been destroyed by accident.) But even with those odds, I'd still go up in a second. No qualms, no questions.
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13275
438. PSLFLCaneVet
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 14:31 (GMT)
Quoting hydrus:
It is still tough for me to watch that. I decided to tune in just before going to work that morning. I remember the shock and not believing what I just witnessed..Very sad day



Agreed. Stunned silence is what I recall most vividly. I think everyone I was around that morning knew instinctively that there could be no survivors. It took some time for folks' emotions to come out.
Member Since: 23.07.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
437. Orcasystems
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 14:15 (GMT)
Quoting Jedkins01:





You mock Levi saying he lies about going to school?

Where the heck are your credentials Mr. Brilliant? Oh crap, that's right geeze you don't have them....


Seriously, you should join the comedy club, I'd pay money to watch you do shows on GW.


They have to attack, mock, criticize, and ridicule. That's all they have left to work with, they lost the ball to be righteous.

As he stated.. he is obviously one of the chosen few (1-2%) who know anything about GW.

Love to see his credentials... they have to be pretty impressive :)
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
436. goosegirl1
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 14:04 (GMT)
I will get back with you on this

thanks... gads, it's snowing again right now!
Member Since: 17.12.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1185
435. MagneticCrotchet
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 14:03 (GMT)
That's tough to watch even 25 years later.

The same set of issues that caused the Space Shuttle explosion are eerily similar to what happened to the economy.

No one ever seems to think that the means justify the ends.

Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
In memory of 25 years ago, today:




Member Since: 18.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
434. Orcasystems
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 14:00 (GMT)
Complete Update





Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
433. hydrus
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 13:59 (GMT)
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
In memory of 25 years ago, today:




It is still tough for me to watch that. I decided to tune in just before going to work that morning. I remember the shock and not believing what I just witnessed..Very sad day
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19533
432. hydrus
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 13:55 (GMT)
Quoting goosegirl1:


We got by with only 12 inches from this storm, but after last year... snow fatigue set in before the storm even started :) So here's the bad news- we live the eastern slope of the Applachians, on some of the higher peaks in the region and are subject to up-slope amplification of any precip that comes from the Atlantic. I think we're in for a long month in February. The good news- we were reaching the mid-seventies by the first week of March last year, so hopefully it'll be short-lived. Looking forward, do you see a series of storms for Feb. such as hit the Mid-Atlantic in Feb 2010?
I will get back with you on this..In the near term, Tuesday thru Friday of next week look interesting. Atmospheric conditions should be in place for severe weather and a large winter storm...This is 132 hours out..
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19533
431. PSLFLCaneVet
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 13:51 (GMT)
In memory of 25 years ago, today:




Member Since: 23.07.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
427. goosegirl1
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 11:56 (GMT)
Quoting hydrus:
I have been doing some research on potent winter systems. If this pattern were to continue, it is possible we could have a very dangerous and deadly winter storm before this winter is over. I am the furthest thing from a doom-caster, but it could be real threat to areas that have already been hit hard this year. Here on the Cumberland Plateau, we are already way ahead of schedule in the snowfall department and dont need anymore.


We got by with only 12 inches from this storm, but after last year... snow fatigue set in before the storm even started :) So here's the bad news- we live the eastern slope of the Applachians, on some of the higher peaks in the region and are subject to up-slope amplification of any precip that comes from the Atlantic. I think we're in for a long month in February. The good news- we were reaching the mid-seventies by the first week of March last year, so hopefully it'll be short-lived. Looking forward, do you see a series of storms for Feb. such as hit the Mid-Atlantic in Feb 2010?
Member Since: 17.12.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1185
426. CybrTeddy
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 11:14 (GMT)



Rest in Peace Dick, Mike, Judy, El, Ron, Greg and Christa. We still morn your passing as a nation together even 25 years later.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
425. aquak9
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 11:05 (GMT)
(warm fuzzy feeling)

thanks Nea...

it's supposta be 71º here tuesday afternoon and I am experiencing hysterical joy..
Member Since: 13.08.2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25506
424. Neapolitan
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 11:02 (GMT)
Quoting aquak9:
Quoting aburttschell:


I presented facts, you presented none. You challenge mine but offer no proof. And I'm emotional because AGW is costing billions, and if we keep taxing, especially at a time when our economic climate is fragile, it could plunge our great country even further into economic plight, while burdening future generations tremendously. I have no problem thinking green, people doing what they can to lessen pollution. I do have a problem with the government interaction when it comes to issues regarding global warming.


yeah cause it's only the people who walk on north american soil (and of course their wallets) that count

"our great country"

the pathetic mind-stance that americans are somehow better, and more deserving, than the humans of rest of the world

Good morning, aqua, and well-said. I love America, and am proud to be an American. But it takes a special kind of fool to turn a blind eye toward America's many problems, or to assume that we have some perfect "exceptional" past that will automatically transmogrify into some perfect "exceptional" future, or to believe that our lives matter more than the lives of the large majority of humans born elsewhere. Such ignorant hubris has led us far down the road toward our own decay and obsolescence.

Okay, time for coffee. ;-)
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13275
423. aquak9
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 10:37 (GMT)
Quoting aburttschell:


I presented facts, you presented none. You challenge mine but offer no proof. And I'm emotional because AGW is costing billions, and if we keep taxing, especially at a time when our economic climate is fragile, it could plunge our great country even further into economic plight, while burdening future generations tremendously. I have no problem thinking green, people doing what they can to lessen pollution. I do have a problem with the government interaction when it comes to issues regarding global warming.


yeah cause it's only the people who walk on north american soil (and of course their wallets) that count

"our great country"

the pathetic mind-stance that americans are somehow better, and more deserving, than the humans of rest of the world
Member Since: 13.08.2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25506
422. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 10:20 (GMT)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
18:00 PM FST January 28 2011
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 09F (1003 hPa) located at 13.0S 179.0E is reported as moving slowly. Position POOR based on infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization has slightly improved in the last 6 hours. Convection has been persistent in the eastern semi-circle of the system in the past 24 hours with low level circulation center difficult to locate. System lies along a surface trough and to the east of 250 HPA ridge axis, in moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and slowly moves it southwestward with some intensification.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is MODERATE.
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43666
421. greentortuloni
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 10:08 (GMT)
Okay, (longish coffee-ish) break is over, I leave the blog for the more intelligent and knowledgeable, a domani.
Member Since: 5.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
420. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 10:08 (GMT)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #36
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BIANCA (12U)
6:00 PM WST January 28 2011
=======================================

At 5:00 pm WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category Four (945 hPa) located at 24.5S 108.3E, or 545 km west of Carnarvon and 1110 km northwest of Perth has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 15 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to move in a southwest direction away from the northwest of the state.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca is expected to gradually weaken as it takes a more southerly track overnight. On Saturday Bianca will move in a southeasterly direction towards the southwest corner of the state while weakening steadily. However there is a significant risk that Bianca will maintain tropical cyclone intensity as it approaches the coast early on Sunday. If this happens, coastal areas between Jurien Bay and Albany could experience DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour. Wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may be experienced through inland parts southwest of a line Jurien Bay to Albany.

On Sunday tides between Jurien Bay and Cape Naturaliste are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with VERY ROUGH SEAS, DANGEROUS SURF and FLOODING of LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. SIGNIFICANT COASTAL EROSION is possible. HEAVY RAINFALL is also possible on the southern side of the system. LOCALISED FLOODING is possible but extensive flooding is not expected.

VERY HIGH to SEVERE FIRE DANGERS are likely near the west coast on Sunday. EXTREME to CATASTROPHIC FIRE DANGERS are likely across inland areas south of a line from Geraldton to Leonora to Israelite Bay on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watch
================================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Jurien Bay to Albany, including Perth, Mandurah, Bunbury and Busselton
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43666
419. greentortuloni
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 10:07 (GMT)
Quoting alfabob:


Ah but quantum mechanics is 100% correct as it describes the probability of finding an electron in a potential field created by a positive nuclei. This has been verified to the highest of lab results and is the reason why modern electronics exist. Just because you don't understand 4-dimensional vector calculus doesn't mean it is inaccurate. The same goes for any other models which process data correctly, as the point of a model is to match reality usually by differential equations. Not saying that the models for climate change are 100% correct, but they give general results which indicate AGW as it is commonly defined.
I agree: science doesn't explain everything. I see Monica Belluci and I think I should have taken a left at Albuquerque: nothing explain that yet. Whomever, making decisions about the future is just using probability as a proxy for knowledge since even explained it's a chaotic system. Probability and cost matrixes suggest that pretending AGW doesn't exist is the worst case scenario.
Member Since: 5.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
418. greentortuloni
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 10:03 (GMT)
Quoting Surfcropper:


yeah its called advancing

hate to break it you green guys but wind power was invented well before the world was officially round...

it was weak then and its weak now. history isn't very kind to the weak, unfortunately. I don't care what the crystal balls foresee...energy at its most efficient will be the best chances of survival. what good is a clean landscape when we're all rotting underneath it for being too generous and stupid?



Yes, because all those people putting up windmills are making the sails out of hemp and papyrus. Chuck Babbage's first computer couldn't even play Freecell. Historical evidence suggests that windwills will rock out till your legs can't dance no more, gas and coal will playing barmitzvahs while solar's still selling out Wembley.
Member Since: 5.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
417. greentortuloni
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 09:51 (GMT)
Quoting aburttschell:


I presented facts, you presented none. You challenge mine but offer no proof. And I'm emotional because AGW is costing billions, and if we keep taxing, especially at a time when our economic climate is fragile, it could plunge our great country even further into economic plight, while burdening future generations tremendously. I have no problem thinking green, people doing what they can to lessen pollution. I do have a problem with the government interaction when it comes to issues regarding global warming.


No, you really didn't present facts. You presented well formed sentences, e.g., "55% of hamsters ride unicycles while eating cheery ice cream." That's not a fact. Neither were your conclusions about global warming.

If you are against a particular solution, fine, state your reasons and many more intelligent people than me on here can debate with you. However, in my humble opinion, the costs of pollution almost always out weight the benefits of the technology involved. I can't present that as a fact because I can't survey all the cases but an example: grass fertilizer for the front yard. Benefits from a green yard? A lot (no pun intended), I grew up on grass. Negatives: pollution to streams, respiratory and other diseases (e.g. ALS maybe?).

Similarly introducing electric vehicles will cause some problems that we don't foresee. It will also eliminate a lot of problems. I agree that there are no perfect solutions. However relaxing pollution standards doesn't make America more competitive and it shouldn't even be necessary, we should have the talent to do things right and then export that know how to other coutnries that want to do it right as well.

And financially, there is no proof that going green will cost anything. If we don't develop new technology what are we going to export other than grain/food? New technology is the only thing that has a high enough price to compete with products of equal quality from third world countries. If you want to destroy America, keep producing crap automobiles and importing oil.

Economically, we need to pay off our international debt before the economic endgame of capitalism comes (e.g. when productivity of the average worker rises to where 10% of the work force can produce subsistence level standard of living world wide, circa 2025-2035) or we are screwed. IF you think that will happen without major cahgnes, you are dreaming. -Sweet dreams i might add because I think both of us are on the same side: strong clean America, it's my dream too. I just think the only way forward is America on renewable energy and in partnership with the 70% of peaceful nations.
Member Since: 5.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
416. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 08:01 (GMT)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #35
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BIANCA (12U)
3:00 PM WST January 28 2011
=======================================

At 2:00 pm WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category Three (950 hPa) located at 23.9S 108.9E, or 495 km west northwest of Carnarvon and 1130 km northwest of Perth has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 17 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
140 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to move in a southwest direction away from the northwest of the state. Strong and gusty winds are still possible in areas between North West Cape and Carnarvon though winds will ease from the east during the afternoon and evening.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca is expected to gradually weaken as it takes a more southerly track overnight. On Saturday Bianca will move in a southeasterly direction towards the southwest corner of the state while weakening steadily. However there is a significant risk that Bianca will maintain tropical cyclone intensity as it approaches the coast early on Sunday. If this happens, coastal areas between Jurien Bay and Albany could experience DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour. Wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may be experienced through inland parts southwest of a line Jurien Bay to Albany.

On Sunday tides between Jurien Bay and Cape Naturaliste are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with VERY ROUGH SEAS, DANGEROUS SURF and FLOODING of LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. SIGNIFICANT COASTAL EROSION is possible. HEAVY RAINFALL is also possible on the southern side of the system. LOCALISED FLOODING is possible but extensive flooding is not expected.

VERY HIGH to SEVERE FIRE DANGERS are likely near the west coast on Sunday. EXTREME to CATASTROPHIC FIRE DANGERS are likely across inland areas south of a line from Geraldton to Leonora to Israelite Bay on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watch
================================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Jurien Bay to Albany, including Perth, Bunbury and Busselton.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 26.4S 107.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 29.3S 108.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 33.1S 116.7E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: -- --- --

Additional Information
========================

Dvorak EIR analysis produced DT 6.0 over several images during the morning. Final intensity is held at 10-min 85 knots.

The system is likely to maintain intensity or weaken only slightly over the next 12 hours before cooler SSTs and increasing shear leads to rapid weakening as it approaches the SW coast.

There is significant uncertainty regarding the intensity of the system as it impacts the coast with many models indicating the system will fall apart just off the coast as the strong southeasterlies from the new high push in and markedly increase the shear. However a number of runs have indicated the system may reach the coast with gale force winds and other associated impacts.

The next tropical cyclone advice on Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca will be at 13:00 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43666
415. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 08:01 (GMT)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANTHONY (11U)
5:00 PM EST January 28 2011
=========================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Anthony, Category One (988 hPa) located 15.7S 155.3E, or 980 km east northeast of Townsville and 890 km east northeast of Bowen has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center in northern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS

Tropical Cyclone Anthony is moving in a northerly direction and is expected to move in a southwesterly direction during Saturday.

Damaging winds are expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Innisfail and Sarina late on Sunday.

People between Innisfail and Sarina should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparation and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 14.7S 154.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 14.7S 153.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.4S 149.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 20.7S 146.2E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

Curved band pattern applied with 0.50 degree wrap on log10 spiral, giving DT 2.5 MT 3.0 and PT 3.0. CI kept at 3.0.

Deep convection and organisation has significantly improved around Tropical Cyclone Anthony over the past 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Anthony is currently being guided in a northerly direction with the assistance upper low west of New Caledonia. A building ridge will turn Tropical Cyclone Anthony to the southwest on Saturday.

The next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Cyclone Anthony will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43666
414. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 08:01 (GMT)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Tropical Cyclone Wilma
19:00 PM NZDT January 28 2011
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Wilma (978 hPa) located at 32.5S 172.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 20 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===================
240 NM from the center in southeast semi-circle
120 NM from the center in northwest semi-circle

Next Tropical Cyclone Bulletin from TCWC Wellington will be issued at 12:00 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43666
413. WaterWitch11
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 06:02 (GMT)
well was going to attempt the blog tonight................
Member Since: 11.08.2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1485
411. Jedkins01
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 05:04 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:


Certainly.

ECMWF:



Japanese:



CFS:





Quoting MichaelSTL:
Funny that people still listen to Levi when all he does is spout unsubstantiated gibberish. He obviously lies about going to school as well, because of course if he were talking a real degree in meteorology (which includes climate science, at least the basics, including hands-on experiments like the CO2 one I posted), he wouldn't be saying what he does. In fact, that, along with other major fields of science, should be a REQUIREMENT to graduate - regardless of what degree or field you are in. Then we would have no science denial (hopefully), whether in climate science or any other field.

Instead, we have this:

Are meteorologists climate experts?

Meteorologists are not required to take a course in climate change, this is not part of the NOAA/NWS [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service] certification requirements, so university programs don’t require the course (even if they offer it). So we have been educating generations of meteorologists who know nothing at all about climate change.

Clearly, he is in the 98-99% who know nothing about science...


You mock Levi saying he lies about going to school?

Where the heck are your credentials Mr. Brilliant? Oh crap, that's right geeze you don't have them....


Seriously, you should join the comedy club, I'd pay money to watch you do shows on GW.
Member Since: 21.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6867
409. Jedkins01
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 04:48 (GMT)
Quoting Surfcropper:


yeah its called advancing

hate to break it you green guys but wind power was invented well before the world was officially round...

it was weak then and its weak now. history isn't very kind to the weak, unfortunately. I don't care what the crystal balls foresee...energy at its most efficient will be the best chances of survival. what good is a clean landscape when we're all rotting underneath it for being too generous and stupid?




+ 1000


That's one of the most true and intelligent comments of the night! Don't be afraid to say what's true.

And that's what's happened, we have people who literally uphold the earth above people. Not all, but many GW activists are earth worshipers. The earth is their religion, whether they like it or not.

They keep thinking everyone who isn't on board is stupid and ignorant. No we aren't a bunch of dreamers that try to idealize the world. Instead we live in reality, and try to come up with the smartest and most efficient ways to do it best.

We need to learn to stop the obsession with oil, coal and the internal combustion engine as well as whatever other technology that is much obsolete and pollutes.

However, for those of us who aren't panicking about GW and/or aren't earth worshipers. We realize that we can't run wild calling to shutdown multi-billion dollar industries that make the world go round. Its not that simple. Unless you want to collapse society anyway.

A lot of GW activists claim to be brilliant intellectuals, however, I don't see what's very smart about trying to collapse world wide industries immediately because what humans have contributed to the atmosphere is going to bring doom to us all in the near future. But I like to think the best of people and hope its not stupidity, in that case, its fear that they let run wild and drive them to insensibility. Either way, its not good.

As much as I don't like pollution and mistreatment of this planets resources that supports life so amazingly so. I do realize that these industries like oil are integrated into every aspect of life, you can't just rip it all away and not be aware that it will also obliterate the Global Economy, and cause utter collapse of just about every way of life. Let's face it, its gonna take a while to remove the old in-efficient system. That's just how it is, learn to accept reality more, rather than idealizing a dream that won't work.

Dreaming and idealizing about such things is no different than Karl Marx's utopian dreaming.

Wake up and face reality.

Member Since: 21.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6867
408. FirstCoastMan
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 04:40 (GMT)
So is that a good thing or bad thing for the coming up hurricane season?
Member Since: 7.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 250
407. JRRP
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 04:36 (GMT)
Quoting MichaelSTL:


The first is precipitation, with green being above average and red below average (if it is too small, right-click and view image to see full size). Since he shows precipitation in the Sahel with the next graph, I assume he is referring to African dust (the drought years in the 80s correspond to low hurricane activity, although for individual years there isn't much correlation; see 2005 for example, and 2009 was wetter but had a lot of dust).

and 1995
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5081
405. FirstCoastMan
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 04:23 (GMT)
JRRP...What does them charts represent?
Member Since: 7.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 250
403. GeoffreyWPB
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 04:11 (GMT)
--->
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
402. JRRP
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 04:10 (GMT)

normal and slight above normal precip over Sahel
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5081
401. EnergyMoron
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 04:05 (GMT)
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Even Saudi Arabia is Turning to Renewable Energy


Just a quick comment (then goodnight) look I work on natural gas for a living and I have installed solar panels.

Coal, bad.

Oil... running low on cheap supplies.

Renewables are a good investment (solar PV; hot water forget it in the Southwest but in saying so you know I just ain't an ecomoron).
Member Since: 8.12.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
400. GeoffreyWPB
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 04:01 (GMT)
Time for Coast to Coast with George Noory for the truth! :)
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
399. JRRP
28. tammikuuta 2011 klo 03:58 (GMT)
Link
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5081

Viewing: 449 - 399

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Clear
55 °F
Selkeää