Is the Atlantic hurricane season of 2010 over?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:45 (GMT)

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Hurricane Tomas is gone, and good riddance to this deadly late-season storm that hit the southern Lesser Antilles and Haiti hard. While Tomas thankfully spared Haiti a flooding catastrophe, it may yet cause heavy loss in that beleaguered nation by worsening their cholera epidemic, which has already claimed over 500 lives. So, with Tomas gone, are we all done for 2010? Or will this third-busiest hurricane season of all-time spawn a twentieth named storm, Tropical Storm Virginie?


Figure 1. The strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic in November, Hurricane Lenny, takes aim at the Lesser Antilles on November 17, 1999. Image credit: NOAA.

Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, seven of the fifteen years have seen an Atlantic named storm form after November 8: 2007 (Tropical Storm Olga on December 11), 2005 (the "Greek" storms Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta), 2004 (Tropical Storm Otto on November 29), 2003 (Odette and Peter in December), 2001 (Hurricane Olga on November 24), 1999 (Hurricane Lenny on November 14), 1998 (Hurricane Nicole on November 24), and 1996 (Hurricane Marco on November 19). Only two of these storms caused loss of life: Tropical Storm Odette of 2007, whose floods killed eight people in the Dominican Republic, and Hurricane Lenny of 1999, which killed fifteen people in the Lesser Antilles. "Wrong-way Lenny" was the only major hurricane of these very late season storms.


Figure 2. Wind shear forecast for November 24, 2010, as predicted by the 2am EDT November 8, 2010 run of the GFS model. The model is predicting low wind shear of less than 4 m/s (about 8 knots, light red colors) over a small region of the Central Caribbean. Very high wind shear in excess of 44 m/s (85 knots, orange colors), associated with the subtropical jet stream, will protect regions north of the Caribbean.

So, judging by the recent history of late season tropical storms, there is about a 50% chance that we are all done this season. The odds of a significant storm that causes loss of life are much lower, less than 15%. The oceans are certainly warm enough to support continued development of tropical cyclones. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest October on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 0.95°C above average during October, beating the previous record of 0.93°C set in October 2003. Wind shear will also be low enough in the Caribbean to support tropical storm formation over the coming two weeks, according to the latest run of the GFS model (Figure 2.) However, the subtropical jet stream is forecast to slowly edge southwards over the next few weeks, in keeping with its usual seasonal cycle. The Caribbean will gradually see wind shear increase, until only the extreme southern Caribbean near the coast of Panama can support tropical storm formation. Taking all these factors into account, I believe we are all done this hurricane season with dangerous storms capable of causing loss of life. The latest long-range runs of the GFS and ECMWF models don't hint at anything developing over the next seven days, and I give a 30% chance we will see one more inconsequential named storm, which will not cause loss of life if it forms.

I'll have a new post Tuesday or Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Limonade (Haiti) (haiticonnexion)
Les habitants en proie à l'inondation de Bord de mer de Limonade (Haiti) le dimacche 7 Novembre 2010
Limonade (Haiti)

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398. jeffs713
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 15:27 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 3.08.2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5793
397. jurakantaino
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 15:26 (GMT)
Yep, so far this year we have been getting close calls from different systems or their tails, with lots of flooding problems,Igor,Tomas,Karl this will be another one, lets hope it doesn't gain to much momentum...
Member Since: 31.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
396. PrivateIdaho
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 15:22 (GMT)
Wow, I didn't realize the morning crowd read anything from the night before.
Member Since: 29.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
395. PrivateIdaho
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 15:19 (GMT)
BR>“This study is an exciting example of how applying our knowledge of physical processes in the tropical atmosphere can give us important information when direct measurements may have failed us,” Johnson notes.

The study notes further that global climate models project that the sea surface temperature threshold for convection will continue to rise in tandem with the tropical average sea surface temperature. If true, hurricanes and other forms of tropical convection will require warmer ocean surfaces for initiation over the next century.

This research was supported by grants from NOAA, NSF, NASA, and JAMSTEC.

Citation: N.C. Johnson and S.-P. Xie, 2010: Changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection. Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo1004.

Gisela E Speidel is the Outreach Specialist for the International Pacific Research Center



They published in that rag? Pffffft....(jk!)
Member Since: 29.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
394. charlestonscnanny
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 15:16 (GMT)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
JB this morning. Two Posts. Enjoy and let the bashing begin!


TUESDAY 7:30 AM
DR MANN, CAN I TAKE THIS AS A FORECAST?

Yet Mann remains keenly aware of the political import of every word. He ended his talk with an impassioned plea to action, complete with a picture of his daughter marveling at swimming polar bears at the local zoo. "I can't imagine having to tell her when she's grown up that the polar bears became extinct" he said, "because we didnt act soon enough to combat a problem that we knew was real but that we couldn't convince the public of."



Okay, lets get little forecast going here between PSU's most visible climatologist and a fading memory of the 70s at PSU, me. I predict that my daughter, who is about the same age as Dr. Manns, will still have Polar Bears to marvel at in her old age. Its a simple forecast, so we shall see who is right, the synoptic blue collar weather nerd ( me) or the highly quoted PHD that is leading the charge for us to do things that are questionable at best for the polar bears, and would perhaps cut out the very economic machine that made it possible for researchers like Dr. Mann to get those big grants.

That money came from somewhere, it had to be a profit somewhere and just because it gets recycled through the government doesnt mean someone, somewhere else, did not work for it and either have it confiscated in the form of taxes, or volunteered to give it away.

But I have seen none of it, nor do I want it, since it is not mine. However I will accept a forecast challenge when I see one, even if it is from a university employee that I got my degree from, and just like forecasts for lack of ice at the pole by 2010 ( now pushed to 2013, with our esteemed science officer saying the arctic may be ice free in winter) This one will crash and burn too. The question is will someone call him on it.

Dont worry Jessie ( my daughter) polar bears will be around for your grandchildren to see. Just understand, they are big animals meant to be in the wild where its cold, and thats just where they will be ( BTW why isnt Dr Mann upset about the bear being in a zoo, seems awfully cruel to me)

Game on.. Give us an extinction date, Dr. Mann. Say exactly what you mean, so we can all write it down.

ciao for now.

TUESDAY 7 AM

GET READY FOR WINTER..WEST FIRST, THEN PLAINS, BUT INTO THE EAST THE 20TH AND BEYOND.

now that I have your attention, a couple of things

1) Tomas still has a tight low level center with banded convection to the north and northeast. Why they have to take names off these things when they came out of the tropics is beyond me ( until they are absorbed and gone). Think about the willy nilly standards here.. the naming of Grace last year in the middle of a cold upper low, north of 40 north, with 70 degree water, and then you see this. Again, one standard, I think I have the right idea, do it and be done with it.

Its as if confusion needs to be created to force reliance, and common sense is thrown to the 4 winds. See Rudyard Kiplings The Gods Of the Copybook Headings: http://www.kipling.org.uk/poems_copybook.htm


2) The LGA thermometer continues to run too warm relative to everyone around it. There is no reason for JFK... on a north northwest wind coming straight down from the city to be 1-2 colder than LGA, which further east does not have the exposure to the city on a north to north northwest wind. I suspect that this needs to be looked at the old fashioned way, get 5 thermometers, immersed in ice water at 32 degrees so we know they are accurate, and then put them next to the thermometer at LGA to see if they are all reading the same thing. It was snowing around NYC yesterday, and while the other sites dropped to near 40 during the time snow was reported, not LGA.. snow in the air.. at 45 degrees. Cut me a break. That would mean, given a saturated lapse rate ( which it wasnt, btw) the snowflakes would have had to survive for 2500 feet. At 40 and assuming it could be saturated above, the more standard 12 hundred feet for seeing the end game of a flake is likely. Again common sense says something is amiss.


Read that Kipling poem.. it blew me away since it applies to a bunch of things, not only my little rants about the weather.

Well I see we have the Caribbean active again. And the ITCZ is loading back up. It is getting late now, but its amazing, how on October 4th I read a quote as to how the season was ending like 2004 and on it went, right out of the area that had to produce storms to CORRECT the imbalance that was evident ( and by the way, gives hope for the cold start to winter in the east... no tropical storm development because its too late, if the imbalance is still there and colder air shows up, it heads toward it, and you are seeing that evolution underway... with this trough now and then what is coming later in the month and into December for the east. That ties into the rant below about research deciding we now need warmer water temps for tropical cyclones.

Okay you got me. I admit it. I am upset about that paper because I was getting ready to put out one that said you need lower temperatures for it to get as cold as it used too. Stole my thunder right out from under my feet.

ciao for now ***


Thanks for posting this, very informative!
Member Since: 5.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 107
393. Neapolitan
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 15:08 (GMT)
NEW BLOG ENTRY
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
392. BahaHurican
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 15:08 (GMT)
390. hulakai 10:02 AM EST on November 09, 2010
Thought some of you might find this interesting:


Very much so.... so this supports Landsea's view that we're more likely to see an increase in POWERFUL TCs than in TCs generally.

And thinking about seasonal numbers, anybody want to guess what our map would have looked like back in 1910 with the kind of activity we've had this year?
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
391. BahaHurican
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 15:04 (GMT)
Well, I'm out for a while. Will check in later once the Doc's changed the blog. I guess he'll be going back to 3x weekly blogs after the next week or 2...
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
390. hulakai
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 15:02 (GMT)
Thought some of you might find this interesting:

BY GISELA SPEIDEL – Scientists have long known that atmospheric convection in the form of hurricanes and tropical ocean thunderstorms tends to occur when sea surface temperature rises above a threshold. So how do rising ocean temperatures with global warming affect this threshold?

If the threshold does not rise, it could mean more frequent hurricanes. A new study by researchers at the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) of the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa shows this threshold sea surface temperature for convection is rising under global warming at the same rate as that of the tropical oceans. Their paper appears in the Advance Online Publications of Nature Geoscience.

In order to detect the annual changes in the threshold sea surface temperature (SST) for convection, Nat Johnson, a postdoctoral fellow at IPRC, and Shang-Ping Xie, a professor of meteorology at IPRC and UH Mānoa, analyzed satellite estimates of tropical ocean rainfall spanning 30 years. They find that changes in the threshold temperature for convection closely follow the changes in average tropical sea surface temperature, which have both been rising approximately 0.1°C per decade.

“The correspondence between the two time series is rather remarkable,” says lead author Johnson. “The convective threshold and average sea surface temperatures are so closely linked because of their relation with temperatures in the atmosphere extending several miles above the surface.”

The change in tropical upper atmospheric temperatures has been a controversial topic in recent years because of discrepancies between reported temperature trends from instruments and the expected trends under global warming according to global climate models. The measurements from instruments have shown less warming than expected in the upper atmosphere. The findings of Johnson and Xie, however, provide strong support that the tropical atmosphere is warming at a rate that is consistent with climate model simulations.

“This study is an exciting example of how applying our knowledge of physical processes in the tropical atmosphere can give us important information when direct measurements may have failed us,” Johnson notes.

The study notes further that global climate models project that the sea surface temperature threshold for convection will continue to rise in tandem with the tropical average sea surface temperature. If true, hurricanes and other forms of tropical convection will require warmer ocean surfaces for initiation over the next century.

This research was supported by grants from NOAA, NSF, NASA, and JAMSTEC.

Citation: N.C. Johnson and S.-P. Xie, 2010: Changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection. Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo1004.

Gisela E Speidel is the Outreach Specialist for the International Pacific Research Center

Member Since: 5.08.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
389. BahaHurican
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 15:01 (GMT)
Quoting stormpetrol:

+100 Baha, I always smiled at GOP, though not my country, they are always ahead of the game when it comes to bigotry!!
LOL agreed. I think sometimes we have an advantage because our countries r so small... a little harder to get too full of urself when everybody knew where u grew up and went to school w/ u... lol.. u can think what u like, but pple generally laugh at ur foolishness...
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
388. hydrus
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 15:00 (GMT)
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Is it just me or is anyone else having off and on issues getting into the SSD site for satellites?
Its just you...and its probably your fault......j.k....Good morning..
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19606
387. GeoffreyWPB
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 15:00 (GMT)
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
385. BahaHurican
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:58 (GMT)
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE REMNANT LOW OF TOMAS IS A 998 MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 28N60W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TOWARD
THE REMNANT LOW OF TOMAS NEAR 27N65W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT
CONTINUES FROM THE 998 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO A 27N58W TRIPLE
POINT. A WARM FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 20N54W.
A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 20N61W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N61W...THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
TO A 1007 MB CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
14N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
32N58W 24N53W 19N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N51W
26N46W 19N40W 14N47W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N46W 16N40W 22N39W 25N44W
28N45W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TOWARD THE REMNANT LOW
CENTER. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NOW IS IN PHASE WITH THE BROAD
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W. A CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 20N234W. CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 30W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 34W/35W RIDGE THAT
RUNS FROM 18N TO 32N.

Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
384. hydrus
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:58 (GMT)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EST TUE 09 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-161

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
This is sorta interesting...Watch the low in the Caribbean, it comes and goes but you can still see it...Link
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19606
383. TampaSpin
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:58 (GMT)



Not sure these early models will be the true path as high pressure builds off the East Coast!



Below it the GFS MODELS.....its really confused!
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
382. stormpetrol
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:56 (GMT)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Since ur right wing is showing and his left wing is showing, does that now mean we have a balanced aircraft?

+100 Baha, I always smiled at GOP, though not my country, they are always ahead of the game when it comes to bigotry!!
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
381. BahaHurican
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:54 (GMT)
Morning all.

PDoug, I couldn't resist that one... lol

I see we had some interesting military-related conversation overnight, respectful, too, which is pretty good for the blog. If pple were different, we could do without armed forces; as it is, I think u as an individual have to decide whether that is something that is right for u... it's really not a career u join because ur folks want u to or because all ur friends are doing it. Unlike the "run over while crossing the street" scenarios, pple who join the military should do so knowing they will be expected to put their lives at risk. I wouldn't do it myself; I don't encourage my young relatives to join up; however I greatly respect those who know themselves well enough to choose the military as a career. There are some pple out there for whom there is no better choice. And SOMEbody's got to do it, unfortunately. So IMO respect is due.

On the Cleric = Pat Robertson, my one comment is "That's the kind of thinking that we need to kill". Wars happen when people begin to think their way of thinking / belief is more important than other pple's lives, and anybody who promotes the "them or us" way of thinking is IMO in the same boat.

The weather is better today than yesterday - not so gloomy - but I am still not enjoying it. Tomorrow is supposed to be warmer; I hope we get to 82!
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
380. GeoffreyWPB
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:44 (GMT)
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EST TUE 09 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-161

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
379. BahaHurican
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:44 (GMT)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Quoting Neapolitan:



That's for sure; where religious nuttiness and holy book malinterpretation are concerned, I doubt even a wildly radical jihadist could give Robertson a run for his money. ;-)


Your left wing is showing.
Since ur right wing is showing and his left wing is showing, does that now mean we have a balanced aircraft?
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
378. stillwaiting
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:42 (GMT)
didnt jb call for 5 significant tc effects for the contiguous US and a oilacane at one point as well,he has the makings of a wx version of glenn beck,suprised he doesnt do foxs wx!!
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
377. Thundercloud01221991
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:31 (GMT)
Quoting hydrus:
I would have been quite worried myself if that happened to me..


they used to post it in the Rochester News paper but now they only post it in the local one that I dont read
Member Since: 1.08.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
376. hydrus
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:30 (GMT)
The GEM has the invest in the Caribbean remaining stationary for a week..Link look, what a surprise, 3 low pressure areas in the Caribbean in 84 hours...
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19606
375. hydrus
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:16 (GMT)
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
had a scare this morning to wake me up... guess they were doing a test on the nuclear power plant sirens here at 9 AM that I did not know about... those things are very very loud and not something you want to be woken up by... I got up and got online to find out if it was a test or real

edit... one of the sirens was 1 block from my house
I would have been quite worried myself if that happened to me..
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19606
374. PensacolaDoug
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:13 (GMT)
JB this morning. Two Posts. Enjoy and let the bashing begin!


TUESDAY 7:30 AM
DR MANN, CAN I TAKE THIS AS A FORECAST?

Yet Mann remains keenly aware of the political import of every word. He ended his talk with an impassioned plea to action, complete with a picture of his daughter marveling at swimming polar bears at the local zoo. "I can't imagine having to tell her when she's grown up that the polar bears became extinct" he said, "because we didnt act soon enough to combat a problem that we knew was real but that we couldn't convince the public of."



Okay, lets get little forecast going here between PSU's most visible climatologist and a fading memory of the 70s at PSU, me. I predict that my daughter, who is about the same age as Dr. Manns, will still have Polar Bears to marvel at in her old age. Its a simple forecast, so we shall see who is right, the synoptic blue collar weather nerd ( me) or the highly quoted PHD that is leading the charge for us to do things that are questionable at best for the polar bears, and would perhaps cut out the very economic machine that made it possible for researchers like Dr. Mann to get those big grants.

That money came from somewhere, it had to be a profit somewhere and just because it gets recycled through the government doesnt mean someone, somewhere else, did not work for it and either have it confiscated in the form of taxes, or volunteered to give it away.

But I have seen none of it, nor do I want it, since it is not mine. However I will accept a forecast challenge when I see one, even if it is from a university employee that I got my degree from, and just like forecasts for lack of ice at the pole by 2010 ( now pushed to 2013, with our esteemed science officer saying the arctic may be ice free in winter) This one will crash and burn too. The question is will someone call him on it.

Dont worry Jessie ( my daughter) polar bears will be around for your grandchildren to see. Just understand, they are big animals meant to be in the wild where its cold, and thats just where they will be ( BTW why isnt Dr Mann upset about the bear being in a zoo, seems awfully cruel to me)

Game on.. Give us an extinction date, Dr. Mann. Say exactly what you mean, so we can all write it down.

ciao for now.

TUESDAY 7 AM

GET READY FOR WINTER..WEST FIRST, THEN PLAINS, BUT INTO THE EAST THE 20TH AND BEYOND.

now that I have your attention, a couple of things

1) Tomas still has a tight low level center with banded convection to the north and northeast. Why they have to take names off these things when they came out of the tropics is beyond me ( until they are absorbed and gone). Think about the willy nilly standards here.. the naming of Grace last year in the middle of a cold upper low, north of 40 north, with 70 degree water, and then you see this. Again, one standard, I think I have the right idea, do it and be done with it.

Its as if confusion needs to be created to force reliance, and common sense is thrown to the 4 winds. See Rudyard Kiplings The Gods Of the Copybook Headings: http://www.kipling.org.uk/poems_copybook.htm


2) The LGA thermometer continues to run too warm relative to everyone around it. There is no reason for JFK... on a north northwest wind coming straight down from the city to be 1-2 colder than LGA, which further east does not have the exposure to the city on a north to north northwest wind. I suspect that this needs to be looked at the old fashioned way, get 5 thermometers, immersed in ice water at 32 degrees so we know they are accurate, and then put them next to the thermometer at LGA to see if they are all reading the same thing. It was snowing around NYC yesterday, and while the other sites dropped to near 40 during the time snow was reported, not LGA.. snow in the air.. at 45 degrees. Cut me a break. That would mean, given a saturated lapse rate ( which it wasnt, btw) the snowflakes would have had to survive for 2500 feet. At 40 and assuming it could be saturated above, the more standard 12 hundred feet for seeing the end game of a flake is likely. Again common sense says something is amiss.


Read that Kipling poem.. it blew me away since it applies to a bunch of things, not only my little rants about the weather.

Well I see we have the Caribbean active again. And the ITCZ is loading back up. It is getting late now, but its amazing, how on October 4th I read a quote as to how the season was ending like 2004 and on it went, right out of the area that had to produce storms to CORRECT the imbalance that was evident ( and by the way, gives hope for the cold start to winter in the east... no tropical storm development because its too late, if the imbalance is still there and colder air shows up, it heads toward it, and you are seeing that evolution underway... with this trough now and then what is coming later in the month and into December for the east. That ties into the rant below about research deciding we now need warmer water temps for tropical cyclones.

Okay you got me. I admit it. I am upset about that paper because I was getting ready to put out one that said you need lower temperatures for it to get as cold as it used too. Stole my thunder right out from under my feet.

ciao for now ***

Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
373. Thundercloud01221991
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:03 (GMT)
had a scare this morning to wake me up... guess they were doing a test on the nuclear power plant sirens here at 9 AM that I did not know about... those things are very very loud and not something you want to be woken up by... I got up and got online to find out if it was a test or real

edit... one of the sirens was 1 block from my house
Member Since: 1.08.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
372. PensacolaDoug
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:00 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:



That's for sure; where religious nuttiness and holy book malinterpretation are concerned, I doubt even a wildly radical jihadist could give Robertson a run for his money. ;-)


Your left wing is showing.
Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
371. hydrus
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:53 (GMT)
Large disturbance in the Atlantic... Rotation very pronounced with new invest.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19606
370. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:52 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Or it could become a TS
if it does it will be brief
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
369. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:50 (GMT)
thanks 41
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
368. Orcasystems
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:49 (GMT)
Complete Update

Apparently the Fat Lady forgot to sing :)






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
367. TropicalAnalystwx13
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:48 (GMT)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
this could become at most a tropical depression with 93l


Or it could become a TS
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30291
365. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:38 (GMT)
this could become at most a tropical depression with 93l
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
364. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:34 (GMT)
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
363. TropicalAnalystwx13
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:34 (GMT)
I smell Virgine coming...



Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30291
362. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:17 (GMT)
540

WHXX01 KWBC 091228

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1228 UTC TUE NOV 9 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20101109 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

101109 1200 101110 0000 101110 1200 101111 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.2N 69.3W 15.5N 69.4W 16.7N 69.8W 17.9N 70.0W

BAMD 14.2N 69.3W 15.4N 69.4W 16.8N 69.0W 18.4N 67.4W

BAMM 14.2N 69.3W 15.4N 69.3W 16.4N 69.3W 17.6N 68.8W

LBAR 14.2N 69.3W 15.2N 69.2W 16.9N 68.9W 18.6N 67.8W

SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS

DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

101111 1200 101112 1200 101113 1200 101114 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 18.5N 69.8W 18.6N 68.3W 19.5N 64.2W 23.3N 56.9W

BAMD 19.7N 64.1W 22.6N 53.7W 27.3N 42.9W 25.8N 34.5W

BAMM 18.5N 67.3W 19.6N 61.5W 25.0N 52.1W 30.8N 42.3W

LBAR 20.9N 65.1W 28.2N 54.1W 39.2N 41.1W .0N .0W

SHIP 30KTS 25KTS 17KTS 0KTS

DSHP 30KTS 25KTS 17KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 69.3W DIRCUR = 15DEG SPDCUR = 2KT

LATM12 = 13.6N LONM12 = 69.5W DIRM12 = 18DEG SPDM12 = 2KT

LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 69.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
361. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:14 (GMT)
XX/INV/93L
MARK
15.10N/69.80W
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
359. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:08 (GMT)
2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
93L.INVEST
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
358. GeoffreyWPB
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:03 (GMT)
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
356. GeoffreyWPB
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 12:57 (GMT)
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
355. WxLogic
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 12:56 (GMT)
Good Morning
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
354. stormpetrol
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 12:47 (GMT)
Link Whatever circulation there is sames to be drifting eastward
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
353. stormwatcherCI
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 12:43 (GMT)
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
352. stormpetrol
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 12:38 (GMT)
Good Morning all, I see we have 93L, a potential Puerto Rico problem?
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
351. PensacolaDoug
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 12:21 (GMT)
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Whoa! Pat Robertson has an Islamic twin!



That's not a fair comparison.
Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
350. PensacolaDoug
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 12:21 (GMT)
This amazing season has yet another one? Could be!
Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
349. SouthDadeFish
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 11:59 (GMT)
Here's an old ASCAT pass:

Member Since: 12.08.2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
348. GeoffreyWPB
9. marraskuuta 2010 klo 11:50 (GMT)
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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