Little change to Tomas as it bears down on Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4. marraskuuta 2010 klo 19:44 (GMT)

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Tropical Storm Tomas is headed north towards Haiti, and the northernmost spiral bands of the storm have already reached the tip of Haiti's southwestern peninsula, the eastern tip of Jamaica, and eastern Cuba. It appears at this time that the most dangerous flooding rains of 5 - 10 inches will be confined to the southwestern and northwestern peninsulas of Haiti, and that the earthquake zone where 1.3 million people live in makeshift shelters and tents will experience lesser rains that will cause serious but not catastrophic flooding. Satellite loops of Tomas show an average-sized tropical storm with a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and low-level spiral bands. Upper-level outflow is good to the north, fair to the east, and poor elsewhere. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 20 knots. The shear is due to strong upper-level winds out of the southwest, and the shear is keeping most of Tomas' heavy thunderstorms pushed over to the northeast side of the storm. The low-level center of circulation has been exposed to view most of the afternoon, the tell-tale sign of a tropical storm struggling with wind shear. The areal coverage and intensity of Tomas' thunderstorms has continued to grow this afternoon, but Tomas' winds and pressure have remained about the same. A 2:31pm center fix by an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found a central pressure of 999 mb--several millibars higher than early this morning. Top surface winds of 57 mph were seen with their SFMR instrument. Rainfall amounts as observed by the Metopa polar orbiting satellite at 10:23am were 0.5 - 1.0" per hour in a 100-mile wide region near the center of Tomas (Figure 1.) One odd aspect of Tomas is that the area of low pressure 200 - 300 miles southwest of Tomas has gotten better defined with an steady increase in heavy thunderstorm activity this afternoon. This movement of energy to the southwest is probably responsible for the 3 mb rise in Tomas' pressure over the past three hours. It is possible, but not likely, that Tomas' center could relocate 200 miles to the south-southwest later tonight, resulting in a 12 hour longer period of rainfall for Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica.


Figure 1. Rainfall rate for Tomas as observed by the Metopa polar orbiting satellite at 10:23am EDT Thursday, November 4, 2010. Heaviest rainfall rates in excess of 0.5 inches per hour (green colors) were confined to a 100-mile wide area near the core of Tomas. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Track and rainfall forecast for Tomas
A trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is drawing Tomas northward at 7 mph, and this forward speed will gradually increase to 10 mph late tonight. Heavy rains from Tomas will spread over all of Haiti, western portions of the Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba by tonight. Satellite-based estimates of current rainfall rates from Tomas (Figure 2) yield predictions of 2 - 4 inches of rain falling over an 18-hour period near the core of Tomas. This forecast only uses the current intensity of the storm to come up with a rainfall forecast, and if Tomas intensifies today, rainfall amounts will be higher. Tomas has an elongated band of heavy rains that extend all the way to South America, so I expect that the southwest and northwest peninsulas of Haiti will receive heavy rains until Saturday night or Sunday morning. Taking these factors into account, plus the current track forecast, I expect that the heaviest rains from Tomas will fall over these two peninsulas, and accumulate to 5 - 10 inches. Precipitation amounts over Haiti's earthquake zone and the western Dominican Republic will be 3 - 5 inches, with some isolated areas receiving up to 8 inches. The most severe flooding problems from Tomas will probably be in Haiti's southwestern Peninsula, and in the city of Gonaives in northwest Haiti, where most of the 3,000 deaths from Hurricane Jeanne's rains in 2004 occurred. The NHC rainfall forecast for 1 to 3 inches over Jamaica, 3 to 5 inches over eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands looks good.


Figure 2. Predicted rain amounts for the 18-hour period ending at 2am EDT Friday, November 5, 2010, as forecast using satellite-derived measurements of precipitation rates. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 3. Predicted cumulative rainfall from Tomas as predicted by the 8am EDT (12Z) Thursday, November 4, 2010 run of the GFDL model. The model predicts no rainfall amounts in excess of 8 inches (yellow colors) for Haiti. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

The computer models now agree that the trough of low pressure pulling Tomas northward will be strong enough to pull Tomas well north of the Bahamas, and the storm will not stall out near Hispaniola for many days as was being predicted by many of the models yesterday. Wind shear will rise to the high range, 35 - 60 knots, by Sunday, resulting in a steady weakening of Tomas.

Intensity forecast for Tomas
Tomas continues to have difficulty disentangling itself from an area of low pressure over the southwest Caribbean, and this low is acting to steal moisture from Tomas and distort its circulation. As Tomas pulls away from this low, these effects will lessen, and Tomas may be able to intensify into a minimal Category 1 hurricane before reaching the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas. Wind shear as predicted by the SHIPS model will remain in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, through Saturday afternoon, which should allow for some modest intensification. NHC is giving Tomas a 43% chance of reaching hurricane strength by Friday evening.

Comparison with Hurricane Ernesto of 2006
Tomas's current position and intensity are similar to that of Tropical Storm Ernesto of 2006. Ernesto was a small to moderate-sized tropical storm with 50 mph winds when it hit the southwestern tip of Haiti on August 27. According to Wikipedia, In Haiti, the storm caused heavy rainfall of over 11 inches (300 mm) and strong winds, causing flooding and destroying 13 homes on the island of La Gonave. In Port-au-Prince, rainfall severely damaged a bridge, isolating the southern portion of the region. Across the country, 59 homes were damaged, of which six destroyed, and a total of five deaths were reported..

Tomas is a larger and wetter storm than Ernesto , and I expect that Tomas' rains in Haiti will be about 25% greater than Ernesto's. Since Haiti is more vulnerable to disasters because of the floods of 2008 and the 2010 earthquake, the rains from Tomas will cause more death and destruction than Ernesto did, but I don't expect a catastrophe with many hundreds of deaths in Haiti's earthquake zone. Such a catastrophe is possible in southwest or northwest Haiti, however.


Figure 4. Track of Hurricane Ernesto in 2006.

Organizations Active in Haitian Relief Efforts:
Portlight disaster relief
Lambi Fund of Haiti
Haiti Hope Fund
Catholic Relief Services of Haiti

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Yesterday's post on Haiti's hurricane history is now a permanent link in the "Articles of interest" section on our Tropical & Hurricane web page.

Jeff Masters

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1010. alvarig1263
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:19 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 2.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
1009. MahFL
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:14 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:
I hope Haiti has prepared enough for Tomas, it's a Hurricane, it could likely clinch category 2 status before weakening after it passes west of that country. A very slim chance it rapidly intensifies to a major Hurricane.


Do you have the remotest idea of what conditions are like in Haiti ?
One million people are living in tents, not houses, how can they ever be ready for a hurricane ?, even one that seems to be passing west of them.....
Member Since: 9.06.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2905
1008. TampaSpin
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:04 (GMT)
Quoting Chucktown:


NOAA still has to get advanced permission from the Cuban government to fly over the island. What I meant was they just can't freely go wherever they want and whenever they want.


That is exactly correct....as i just stated also .....advanced request must be given in advance.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1007. stormwatcherCI
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:03 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


No foreign aircraft can overfly another sovereign nations airspace without permission. That includes civilian and military aircraft. All foreign flights into Canada (including the US) have to ask permission.
That's what I thought and almost posted it but wasn't 100 % sure if that was the case. Thanks for the clarification.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
1006. CBJeff
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:02 (GMT)
Quoting Chucktown:


Too close to Cuba is the issue. HH can't fly into Cuban air space, in fact when they travel to the Caribbean, they have to chart a course completely around the island.


Cuba has granted HH overflight access (there was even a final Jeopardy question about it last year). I think the issue is mountains. Guantanamo Province is pretty rugged.
Member Since: 29.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 36
1005. surfmom
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:02 (GMT)
out for a while -- need to change the brain channel -- I keep thinking of Haitian babies, children, suffering & the frustration of watching this unfold w/ no ability --short of donations and prayer to make a difference
Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
1004. jeffs713
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:02 (GMT)
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


The little white dot is basically where the center is. Outflow is amazing in all quads now.

The white dot is an exceptionally cold cloud top (a hot tower, most likely). Outflow is good in most quads, but the SW quad is a bit constrained.
Member Since: 3.08.2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
1003. stormwatcherCI
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:02 (GMT)
Quoting Chucktown:


NOAA still has to get advanced permission from the Cuban government to fly over the island. What I meant was they just can't freely go wherever they want and whenever they want.
I understand and I highly doubt they would refuse permission to fly in Cuban airspace since it is to their benefit also. Cayman Airways flies directly over Cuba every flight. One thing we cannot say is that Castro is a fool therefore I don't think permission would be refused.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
1002. CyclonicVoyage
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:02 (GMT)
Friday November 5

NOAA-43: Down day as storm proximity is too close islands

NOAA-42: Scheduled for a tasked mission in T.S. Tomas, scheduled takeoff at 20:00 UTC (4:00 PM local) from St Croix, landing at MacDill AFB/Tampa.

Saturday November 6

NOAA-43: scheduled for a tasked mission in T.S. Tomas, takeoff will be at 8:00 UTC (4:00 AM local) from St. Croix, landing in MacDill AFB/Tampa around 12:30 pm local.

G-IV

Thursday November 4

NOAA-49: flew a tasked synoptic mission into TD Tomas. Takeoff was at 05:30 UTC (1:30 AM EDT) from St. Croix, recovering at MacDill AFB/Tampa. No further flights are planned.

AFRC DRIFT BUOY DEPLOYMENT: None at this time.

CONFERENCE CALL

An HRD Conference call is scheduled for tomorrow, Friday November 5 at 10:30 AM to discuss the further missions in TD Tomas.
Member Since: 30.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
1001. Neapolitan
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:01 (GMT)
NEW BLOG ENTRY
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13258
1000. Orcasystems
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:01 (GMT)
Quoting Chucktown:


NOAA still has to get advanced permission from the Cuban government to fly over the island. What I meant was they just can't freely go wherever they want and whenever they want.


No foreign aircraft can overfly another sovereign nations airspace without permission. That includes civilian and military aircraft. All foreign flights into Canada (including the US) have to ask permission.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
999. stormwatcherCI
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 14:00 (GMT)
Quoting jambev:
StormwatcherCI

I saw your concern for your granddaughter in Mandeville. Some of the higher elevations in Kingston saw some gusty winds overnight but Mandeville although at 2000 ft elevation is 60 miles to the west of Kingston and is unlikely to have felt much.
Thanks. I called her earlier and although she was still asleep she said she doesn't think they had any rain etc. yet.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
998. jambev
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:59 (GMT)
StormwatcherCI

I saw your concern for your granddaughter in Mandeville. Some of the higher elevations in Kingston saw some gusty winds overnight but Mandeville although at 2000 ft elevation is 60 miles to the west of Kingston and is unlikely to have felt much.
Member Since: 3.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 52
997. tatoprweather
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:59 (GMT)
Quoting Chucktown:


Too close to Cuba is the issue. HH can't fly into Cuban air space, in fact when they travel to the Caribbean, they have to chart a course completely around the island.


False.
Member Since: 29.04.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 136
995. TampaSpin
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:57 (GMT)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Not true.NOAA is the only federal agency with hurricane tracking capabilities that is authorized by Cuba to fly in its airspace.


Last i heard was, that yes Cuba does grant them permission once they are asked. But, permission must be granted each time, so they know they are coming, which Cuba always allows for NOAA!
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
994. Chucktown
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:56 (GMT)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
“We’re the only military aircraft that has permission to fly through Cuban airspace,” said public information officer Maj. Chad Gibson. “We share the information we gather with them.”


NOAA still has to get advanced permission from the Cuban government to fly over the island. What I meant was they just can't freely go wherever they want and whenever they want.
Member Since: 27.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1662
993. CyclonicVoyage
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:56 (GMT)
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:


The little white dot is basically where the center is. Outflow is amazing in all quads now.
Member Since: 30.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
992. jeffs713
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:55 (GMT)
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
Friday November 5

NOAA-43: Down day as storm proximity is too close islands

Source: Link

Thats just for the G-IV, I think.
Member Since: 3.08.2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
990. stormwatcherCI
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:52 (GMT)
Quoting barbamz:
From: http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/haiti.shtml
good morning from port au prince !its been rainning on and off since yesterday
night .Here in port au prince wind is blowing between 15 to 20 miles an hour
with some higher gust but theres has been report of two casualties in croix des
bouquets, a city east north east of port au prince and in the southwest part of
the country, both people were drown in flooding rivers.the situation will get
tougher as tomas enter the gulf of la gonave and take aim at the north and
western part of the country.
rudolph victor

Prayers for you and your country. Stay safe.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
989. stormwatcherCI
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:51 (GMT)
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

One of the NOAA planes the other day had to fly around then go over the Windward passage, although they may have a reason.
“We’re the only military aircraft that has permission to fly through Cuban airspace,” said public information officer Maj. Chad Gibson. “We share the information we gather with them.”
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
988. weatherwatcher12
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:51 (GMT)
They don't allow the US Air Force:
"Since during the course of a research flight, the aircraft is often in position to gather reconnaissance data as well, most WP-3 missions have a dual role. In addition, the aircraft are sometimes called upon to fly missions solely for the purpose of reconnaissance. Air Force regulations prevent their C-130 aircraft from flying in Cuban airspace, therefore when a storm is within 50 miles of the Cuban coast, reconnaissance responsibility shifts to NOAA. Additionally, if the Air Force aircraft and crews are stretched too thin by multiple storms or successive storms, the NOAA WP-3’s provide them with a well deserved window of rest."
Source: Link
Member Since: 16.05.2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
987. LoveThemCanes
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:50 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:
Haiti quake victims told to flee approaching hurricane

Excerpt from BBC report


Many earthquake survivors worried that the authorities were trying to permanently move them out.

"We are upset because they have not told us where we are going," Domarcand Fenel, the head of a committee of camp residents, told Reuters. "People believe they want to expel us."

Doctors have warned that torrential rain could flood sanitary installations and contaminate drinking water, worsening a cholera epidemic in the country.

On Wednesday health officials said there had been a 40% jump in the number of new cholera cases and the death toll was 442, with 105 more deaths since Saturday.

God help them....ny heart goes out to these poor people
Member Since: 28.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
986. surfmom
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:49 (GMT)
Morning Stillwaiting - OMG - Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
Surfed yesterday late afternoon, before the chill and the winds arrived, had a really good time - 2plus hours - Whew --Today looks to be a "Men's Room Only" today - waves forcasted to be head high w/very strong winds (the kind that lift surfboards and smash little chica surfers in the face, been there had that experience) --PLUS last thing Wave Starved SWFL surfers need is somebody's MOM in the way - LOL

prob. going to pass the wave riding today - got a gig w/the Compound Surfshop tomorrow surfing with Kids that have Autism -- we're (surfers) all hoping the wind lays down and the weather warms a bit - I volunteered the entire day 9-4... that's a long time to be out in the water w/ cool, windy conditions

I sooooo APPRECIATE the picture mi neighbor !!! Might take a drive to see who is out -- not sure which spot is breaking access#9 or down by Turtle
Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
985. Chucktown
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:49 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


BS, they overfly Cuba all the time doing active Hurricanes, in the area


Overflying Cuban airspace is done via one of two corridors running north-south, paralleling each other about 70nm apart. They're referred to as the Maya and Giron corridors, and as long as one stays within them, it's no problem. An airline notifies the Cuban government well in advance of what their scheduled flights will be, and get those flights approved. On the day an actual flight is supposed to operate, the flight plan that the dispatcher pulls up has the planned times the aircraft will penetrate the FIR (flight information boundry) as well as the entry/exit points for the respective corridor, all based upon that days winds, etc. HH cannot fly on this particular route to get the info they may need on a certain storm because of course they criss cross through the tropical sysytem they are investigating.
Member Since: 27.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1662
984. barbamz
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:49 (GMT)
From: http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/haiti.shtml
good morning from port au prince !its been rainning on and off since yesterday
night .Here in port au prince wind is blowing between 15 to 20 miles an hour
with some higher gust but theres has been report of two casualties in croix des
bouquets, a city east north east of port au prince and in the southwest part of
the country, both people were drown in flooding rivers.the situation will get
tougher as tomas enter the gulf of la gonave and take aim at the north and
western part of the country.
rudolph victor

Member Since: 25.10.2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 5012
983. Orcasystems
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:48 (GMT)
Everyone pasted the same thing...so I deleted my copy.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
982. stormwatcherCI
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:48 (GMT)
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

One of the NOAA planes the other day had to fly around then go over the Windward passage.
May be issues with wind direction but they do fly in Cuban airspace. They are authorized to do so.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
980. weatherwatcher12
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:47 (GMT)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Not true.NOAA is the only federal agency with hurricane tracking capabilities that is authorized by Cuba to fly in its airspace.

One of the NOAA planes the other day had to fly around then go over the Windward passage, although they may have a reason.
Member Since: 16.05.2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
979. CyclonicVoyage
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:46 (GMT)
Quoting kimoskee:
Is Jim Cantorie in Haiti? I don't get the weather channel. Someone said he was going. Any reports from him?



I seen Cantori there last night in an interview.
Member Since: 30.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
978. stormwatcherCI
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:45 (GMT)
Quoting Chucktown:


Too close to Cuba is the issue. HH can't fly into Cuban air space, in fact when they travel to the Caribbean, they have to chart a course completely around the island.
Not true.NOAA is the only federal agency with hurricane tracking capabilities that is authorized by Cuba to fly in its airspace.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
977. reedzone
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:45 (GMT)
I hope Haiti has prepared enough for Tomas, it's a Hurricane, it could likely clinch category 2 status before weakening after it passes west of that country. A very slim chance it rapidly intensifies to a major Hurricane.
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
976. weatherwatcher12
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:43 (GMT)
Quoting Chucktown:


Too close to Cuba is the issue. HH can't fly into Cuban air space, in fact when they travel to the Caribbean, they have to chart a course completely around the island.

I noticed that, what a shame that they won't let them through.
Member Since: 16.05.2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
975. kimoskee
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:43 (GMT)
Is Jim Cantorie in Haiti? I don't get the weather channel. Someone said he was going. Any reports from him?
Member Since: 17.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
974. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:43 (GMT)
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Astro cheking in here from public computer - S. Ontario.

Currently snowing here, reduced visibility, after ice pellets this morning.

I've created a blog entry on Tomas, and hope to add the latest updates within the next 30 minutes.
ya must be north of me change over here is not expected till noon or there after
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52195
973. barotropic
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:43 (GMT)
Quoting stillwaiting:
. ...not with a eyewall that broad,not nearly tight enough....


I agree....not to mentioned an increasing eastward tilt. Tomas is poorly stacked. I dont see to much potential for any significant strengthening. Hopefully its about peaked and forward motion will continue to increase.
Member Since: 22.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
972. Orcasystems
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:43 (GMT)
Quoting Chucktown:


Too close to Cuba is the issue. HH can't fly into Cuban air space, in fact when they travel to the Caribbean, they have to chart a course completely around the island.


BS, they overfly Cuba all the time doing active Hurricanes, in the area
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
971. weatherwatcher12
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:42 (GMT)
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
so we will never know how strong this really gets... it could make it to major hurricane w/o an eye and we would never know

Air force Teal 70 will go out in about 2 hours.
Member Since: 16.05.2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
970. Chucktown
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:42 (GMT)
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Too close to land for them to fly yet.


Too close to Cuba is the issue. HH can't fly into Cuban air space, in fact when they travel to the Caribbean, they have to chart a course completely around the island.
Member Since: 27.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1662
969. AstroHurricane001
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:41 (GMT)
Astro cheking in here from public computer - S. Ontario.

Currently snowing here, reduced visibility, after ice pellets this morning.

I've created a blog entry on Tomas, and hope to add the latest updates within the next 30 minutes.
Member Since: 30.08.2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2834
968. Thundercloud01221991
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:40 (GMT)
so we will never know how strong this really gets... it could make it to major hurricane w/o an eye and we would never know
Member Since: 1.08.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
967. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:40 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Not a lot of information and news coming out of Haiti, all I have been able to find is one Canadian article. I also can't find any place where there is mention of total rainfall to date.
its just getting going news will take till tomorrow to catch up iam sure its got to be a mess there
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52195
966. MahFL
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:39 (GMT)
Is Thomas heading North now ?
Member Since: 9.06.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2905
965. Orcasystems
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:38 (GMT)
Haiti quake victims told to flee approaching hurricane

Excerpt from BBC report


Many earthquake survivors worried that the authorities were trying to permanently move them out.

"We are upset because they have not told us where we are going," Domarcand Fenel, the head of a committee of camp residents, told Reuters. "People believe they want to expel us."

Doctors have warned that torrential rain could flood sanitary installations and contaminate drinking water, worsening a cholera epidemic in the country.

On Wednesday health officials said there had been a 40% jump in the number of new cholera cases and the death toll was 442, with 105 more deaths since Saturday.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
964. weatherwatcher12
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:38 (GMT)
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


they flew right into the storms that make landfall and right up till it makes landfall... we could still be getting pretty valuable information as long as the center is still off shore

See 963, that's what NOAA is saying.
Member Since: 16.05.2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
963. weatherwatcher12
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:37 (GMT)
Friday November 5

NOAA-43: Down day as storm proximity is too close islands

Source: Link
Member Since: 16.05.2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
962. kimoskee
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:37 (GMT)
Listening to the news. There are some emergency shelters open in the east of the island.
Member Since: 17.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
961. Thundercloud01221991
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:37 (GMT)
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Too close to land for them to fly yet.


they flew right into the storms that make landfall and right up till it makes landfall... we could still be getting pretty valuable information as long as the center is still off shore
Member Since: 1.08.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
960. weathermanwannabe
5. marraskuuta 2010 klo 13:35 (GMT)
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Opposing land friction creating an ally way?


Don't have a clue but it is pretty amazing to watch although NHC seems to have this one through the gap right on the money a few days out.
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8265

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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