Hurricane Richard bears down on Belize

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:35 (GMT)

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Data from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft confirms that Richard has intensified to hurricane strength, as it bears down on the coast of Belize. At 7:30am CST, the aircraft measured surface winds of 85 mph. Winds at their 5,000 foot flight level were 97 mph, qualifying Richard as the 10th hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. This year is now tied for sixth place for most hurricanes in an Atlantic hurricane season. This year's 17 named storms also ranks 6th most in history. Atlantic hurricane season records go back to 1851. Richard's center passed just north of the Honduras' Bay Islands this morning, bringing winds of 46 mph, gusting to 58 mph, to the Roatan Airport. Winds were clocked at 49 mph, gusting to 69 mph, at Calabash Bight on Roatan Island.

The latest 8am CST eye report from the Hurricane Hunters noted that Richard had formed a nearly complete eyewall, with a gap in the southwest side. Radar images from the Belize radar also showed this gap, but the gap closed at 9am CST, and Richard now has a complete eyewall, which will promote more rapid intensification. Recent satellite imagery shows a symmetrical, well-organized hurricane with respectable low level spiral banding, and upper level outflow improving in all quadrants. Richard has now walled itself off from the dry air to the storm's west, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.


Figure 1. The eye of Richard is very prominent in this radar image from the Belize radar taken at 9:15am CST 10/24/10. Image credit: Belize Meteorological Service.

Forecast for Richard
The latest set of 12am CST (6Z) model runs are in excellent agreement with Richard's track, taking the enter of the storm inland over Belize between 4pm - 9pm CST tonight. The latest radar animations from the Belize radar indicate that Belize City will experience a portion of the eyewall of Richard, and residents of Belize City can expect a 2 - 4 hour period of hurricane force winds to begin between 4pm - 6pm CST this evening. Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph should arrive at the coast between 2pm - 4pm CST this afternoon. A good way to estimate these arrival times is using the wundermap with the "hurricane" layer turned on and the "wind radius" and "forecast" boxes checked. Richard is in a very favorable environment for intensification, with low wind shear between 5 - 10 knots, and warm water temperatures of 29 - 29.5°C. Given these conditions, and the fact that the eyewall is is now fully formed, Richard will probably undergo a period of rapid intensification that could take it to Category 2 strength with 100 mph winds at landfall this evening. Once inland, Richard's small size and relatively slow forward speed of 5 - 10 mph on Monday will lead to substantial weakening as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The storm will probably be a tropical depression when it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday--if it survives the crossing. If Richard does survive the crossing, high wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday should keep the storm from intensifying. Richard should dissipate by Wednesday, before affecting any other land areas.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered 600 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is encountering a very high 40 - 60 knots of wind shear. The shear is predicted to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Monday through Wednesday. This may give 90L the opportunity to develop, and the NOGAPS model is calling for 90L to develop into a tropical depression by mid-week. NHC is giving 90L a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.

Next update
I'll have an update on Monday morning at the latest.

Our weather extremes expert Christopher C. Burt has a very interesting post today on the hottest temperatures ever measured on Earth.

Jeff Masters

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877. IKE
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:00 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
876. TropicalAnalystwx13
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:51 (GMT)
Last image, which is personally my favorite:

Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30280
875. TropicalAnalystwx13
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:49 (GMT)
This was the strongest storm of all the storms in the USA at the time...Probably the one I got with my camera. This storm had a hail size of 3.5 at the time I believe, and look at the VIL...Bottom right corner...where it says max...

127 kg/m2

Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30280
874. TropicalAnalystwx13
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:44 (GMT)
Quoting Jeff9641:
Amazing TX tornado footage yesterday. I think this is just the sign of things to come with temps and humidity way above average for late October.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/videos/texas-tornado-caught-on-cam-18607


I took this with my camera yesterday afternoon. The storms were long ways away (Probably over an hour and a half), so I got this image:

Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30280
873. stillwaiting
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:35 (GMT)
britton hill fl,elv 345ft above sea level,think they hae snow guns??,lol
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
872. aspectre
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:33 (GMT)
TropicalStormRichard's heading had turned northward to (3.3degrees west of) WestNorthWest
from its previous heading of dueWest
TS.Richard's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had increased to ~7mph(~11.3km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~6.7mph(~10.7km/h)
TS.Richard
24Oct 12pmGMT - 16.8n86.4w - 70mph(~112.6km/h) - 990mb - #14A
H.Richard
24Oct 03pmGMT - 16.9n86.9w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 991mb - #15
24Oct 06pmGMT - 17.1n87.5w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 988mb - #15A
24Oct 09pmGMT - 17.2n88.0w - 90mph(~144.8km/h) - 981mb - NHC.Adv.#16
25Oct 12amGMT - 17.2n88.2w - 90mph(~144.8km/h) - 981mb - #16A
25Oct 03amGMT - 17.3n88.6w - 90mph(~144.8km/h) - 981mb - #17
25Oct 06amGMT - 17.6n89.3w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 987mb - #17A
TS.Richard
25Oct 09amGMT - 17.6n89.6w - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - 993mb - #18
25Oct 12pmGMT - 17.7n89.9w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1005mb - #18A

Copy&paste 16.8n86.4w, 16.9n86.9w, 17.1n87.5w, 17.2n88.0w, 17.2n88.2w-17.3n88.6w, 17.3n88.6w-17.6n89.3w, 17.6n89.3w-17.6n89.6w, 17.6n89.6w-17.7n89.9w, ver, pnd, cun into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and distances travelled over the last 12^hours.

Essentially TS.Richard has spent the last 6hours ripping itself apart on northern Guatemala's highlands.

While the highest and the worst of the rugged terrain is now behind Richard, there's still enough ahead that it is to be expected that the TropicalStorm will be downgraded to to a TropicalDepression by the next NHC.Advisory.
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
871. kshipre1
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:27 (GMT)
wonder if another trough is coming down to potentially swing this thing northward
Member Since: 12.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
870. Neapolitan
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:27 (GMT)
The Caribbean is for the most part cooler than it was two weeks ago, but it's still more than warm enough for more fun stuff. As they say, "cooler than it was" isn't the same as "cool". And with record to near-record highs expected over much of the area the next week or so, don't look for things to be much cooler come the first part of November. Here's a two-week comparison:

October 9 (click for larger image):

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


October 23 (click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13295
868. stillwaiting
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:15 (GMT)
Quoting weatherbro:


Actually it's Sugarloaf Mountain in Clearmont(chuckle).
.....actually its along the al/fl boarder in the noryhern panhandle approx 380ft above sea level,maybe on the peninsula claermont is but not the intire state
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
866. kmanhurricaneman
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:03 (GMT)
next wk could be interesting!!
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
865. kmanhurricaneman
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:01 (GMT)
is this what the models are indicating
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
864. IKE
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 11:53 (GMT)
...RICHARD CONTINUES WEAKENING INLAND OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA...
7:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 25
Location: 17.7N, 89.9W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb

.......................................

3 hours ago it was at...

INITIAL 25/0900Z 17.6N 89.6W 55 KT...INLAND
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
863. sailingallover
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 11:50 (GMT)
Looks like we are in a calm period for a while.
Not much out there that has the possibility of development. High pressure firmly in control of the atlantic basin with a little wave at 45W 15N and another at 25W 10N both with no circulation and dry air and the shear is high everywhere..

The trades are blowing and water temperatures dropping. You can feel the warmth and moisture being pulled off the ocean by the wind as you get alternating dry cool air mixed with the tropical air...

Member Since: 1.09.2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1005
862. DDR
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 11:46 (GMT)
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Crown Weather believes we'll sneak one more storm in.

All interests in the central and eastern Caribbean will need to pay close attention to the possibility of tropical cyclone development this weekend or more likely early next week. The overall pattern in the Caribbean next week favors lowering barometric pressures and upward motion and also all of the global model guidance agrees on the possibility of tropical cyclone development in either the central or eastern Caribbean as we get into early next week.

Thanks
whats interesting to me is that the gfs has a low passing just off the Venezuelan coast a few runs now.
Member Since: 27.04.2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1627
861. Patrap
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 11:41 (GMT)
G'morn dak..

Coffee and Sunrise almost here.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125681
860. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 11:41 (GMT)
19L/TD/R
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52343
859. Dakster
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 11:36 (GMT)
Good Morning...

How is everyone doing this fine Monday?
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9752
858. Patrap
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 11:33 (GMT)
Richard WunderMap®
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125681
857. Patrap
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 11:32 (GMT)



Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125681
856. islander101010
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 11:24 (GMT)
Quoting surfmom:
Quick peek b/4 heading out east to the BARN -- 30% chance of rain..... that ain't gonna cut it -- we need 100% -- backyard is looking like a dustbowl... and we need to seed the horse pastures out east....

Seems Belize is down (power) from Ricky-boy as he drenched 4 Latin American countries - let's hope no mudslides

Good day to all - PraysUp for rain here in SWFL
already west nile in s florida if it does rain not sure what would happen
Member Since: 11.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
854. WxLogic
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 11:21 (GMT)
Good Morning...
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
853. IKE
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 11:08 (GMT)
Belize
City, Belize airport....for October 24th, 2010....

Wind:
Wind Speed 9 mph
Max Wind Speed 37 mph
Max Gust Speed 62 mph
Visibility 4.3 miles
Events Rain , Thunderstorm

.............................................

HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT RICHARD MADE LANDFALL AROUND
0045 UTC ABOUT 20 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
852. surfmom
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 11:06 (GMT)
Quick peek b/4 heading out east to the BARN -- 30% chance of rain..... that ain't gonna cut it -- we need 100% -- backyard is looking like a dustbowl... and we need to seed the horse pastures out east....

Seems Belize is down (power) from Ricky-boy as he drenched 4 Latin American countries - let's hope no mudslides

Good day to all - PraysUp for rain here in SWFL
Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
851. hurristat
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 10:56 (GMT)
Quoting winter123:
Just dropped in to say... Richard looks amazing considering how far inland it is, and that it's going over mountains! I have no doubts it's going to regenerate into a hurricane, maybe even pull an Alex and hit cat 3 before it more than likely goes into mexico. Amazing, no landfalls on the US this season. Mexico and bermuda and the islands got hit hard though.


Alex, Hermine, Bonnie, TD5, TD2, and Earl all impacted the US.

And for regeneration, shear is way too high for it to even strengthen. That's why the NHC weakens it slowly and dissipates it at 96 hours out.
Member Since: 15.10.2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2305
850. Autistic2
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 10:48 (GMT)
I think the season is over for U.S. Wish we could get some rain here in NE Fl.
Member Since: 29.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
849. islander101010
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 10:44 (GMT)
cyber might be right this time sure was not right about early season development. it looks like that character nailed it at the end of the season though.
Member Since: 11.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
848. Autistic2
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 10:44 (GMT)
If my GPS is correct, my housr is 22 feet asl
Member Since: 29.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
847. stoormfury
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 10:27 (GMT)
that disturbance is now in the deep eastern atlantic, and will track lower than normal
Member Since: 22.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2552
846. aislinnpaps
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 10:20 (GMT)
Morning, everyone.
Member Since: 22.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
845. CybrTeddy
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 10:16 (GMT)
Quoting ackee:
I see both the GFS and Ecmwf continue to devlop, another storm that far out nothing be too concern at this time after 5 days take it more serious


CMC long range has it too.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
844. ackee
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 09:51 (GMT)
I see both the GFS and Ecmwf continue to devlop, another storm that far out nothing be too concern at this time after 5 days take it more serious
Member Since: 15.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1341
843. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 08:40 (GMT)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19
15:00 PM JST October 25 2010
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 22.0N 153.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43701
842. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 08:28 (GMT)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHABA (T1014)
15:00 PM JST October 25 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Chaba (985 hPa) located at 17.4N 130.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Gale Force Winds
================
140 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.0N 129.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 21.0N 129.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 23.5N 129.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43701
841. winter123
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 08:24 (GMT)
Just dropped in to say... Richard looks amazing considering how far inland it is, and that it's going over mountains! I have no doubts it's going to regenerate into a hurricane, maybe even pull an Alex and hit cat 3 before it more than likely goes into mexico. Amazing, no landfalls on the US this season. Mexico and bermuda and the islands got hit hard though.
Member Since: 29.07.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1762
840. weatherbro
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 07:05 (GMT)
Quoting AEKDB1990:
There is Mount Dora in Florida. That's about 180 feet I think. That may be the highest elevation in the peninsula.


Actually it's Sugarloaf Mountain in Clearmont(chuckle).
Member Since: 26.05.2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1214
839. weatherbro
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 07:00 (GMT)
At least Halloween Weekend will be nice and cool in Florida. There's nothing I hate more then spending Halloween on a muggy night!
Member Since: 26.05.2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1214
838. aspectre
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 06:58 (GMT)
HurricaneRichard's heading had turned northward to (1.7degrees north of) WestNorthWest
from its previous heading of 7.9degrees west of WestNorthWest
H.Richard's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had increased to ~17mph(~27.4km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~9mph(~14.5km/h)
TropicalStormRichard
24Oct 06amGMT - 16.4n85.1w - 70mph(~112.6km/h) - 995mb - #13A
24Oct 09amGMT - 16.5n85.5w - 70mph(~112.6km/h) - 995mb - #14
24Oct 12pmGMT - 16.8n86.4w - 70mph(~112.6km/h) - 990mb - #14A
HurricaneRichard
24Oct 03pmGMT - 16.9n86.9w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 991mb - NHC.Adv.#15
24Oct 06pmGMT - 17.1n87.5w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 988mb - #15A
24Oct 09pmGMT - 17.2n88.0w - 90mph(~144.8km/h) - 981mb - #16
25Oct 12amGMT - 17.2n88.2w - 90mph(~144.8km/h) - 981mb - #16A
25Oct 03amGMT - 17.3n88.6w - 90mph(~144.8km/h) - 981mb - #17
25Oct 06amGMT - 17.6n89.3w - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - 987mb - #17A

Copy&paste 16.4n85.1w, 16.5n85.5w, 16.8n86.4w, 16.9n86.9w, 17.1n87.5w-17.2n88.0w, 17.2n88.0w-17.2n88.2w, 17.2n88.2w-17.3n88.6w, 17.3n88.6w-17.6n89.3w, cun, 17.6n89.3w-cme into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and distances travelled over the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
H.Richard will be taxiing across Guatamala then Mexico for a 4:35pmGMT takeoff tomorrow
from Ciudad del Carmen International Airport for its flight over the Bay of Campeche

^ The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
837. JLPR2
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 06:39 (GMT)
Well I'm off to bed too!

Buena notte tutti!
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
836. tornadodude
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 06:37 (GMT)
haha


well Im going to call it a night, have a great one everybody, im sure I'll drop in tomorrow!
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
835. justalurker
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 06:34 (GMT)
Quoting Grothar:


per chi? Sono vecchio


va bene...anche io..ciao tutti..haha
Member Since: 18.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157
834. Grothar
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 06:33 (GMT)
.
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23739
833. JLPR2
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 06:32 (GMT)
Quoting tornadodude:

<

haha wow man


I guess I can't complain since it is my fault I'm so far behind, eh...
You guys will probably not see me till Wednesday. LOL!
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
832. justalurker
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 06:31 (GMT)
Quoting Grothar:


a dormire


e tropo presto a dormire
Member Since: 18.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157
831. Grothar
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 06:31 (GMT)
.
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23739
830. geepy86
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 06:30 (GMT)
take care dude bed time here.
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1691
829. Grothar
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 06:30 (GMT)
Quoting justalurker:
Dove vai..


a dormire
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23739
828. tornadodude
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 06:27 (GMT)
Quoting Grothar:


I am still traveling, would you believe! I would have sent you others, but didn't know where you were. Still write to the others when I am away. Had some nice ones from Greenland I wanted to send. You would have enjoyed them. Large ones. Keep in touch now and then. A lot of people still ask for you. You were part of the old crowd. Some laughs back then, eh? Now, 50% of the blog is under water.


well i guess we'll have to get you my new address soon, and take care man! I will definitely drop by a lot more often!

Quoting JLPR2:


Got 3 exams this week and I haven't touched a single book yet, I'll be eating them later in the week. XD


haha wow man
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
827. justalurker
25. lokakuuta 2010 klo 06:26 (GMT)
Dove vai..
Member Since: 18.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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