Richard intensifies; Megi hits China; no news from Myanmar on Giri's impact

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 23. lokakuuta 2010 klo 16:14 (GMT)

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Tropical Storm Richard suddenly overcame its struggles with dry air and wind shear this morning, took advantage of low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and warm water temperatures of 29°C, and intensified into a strong tropical storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft departed Richard late this morning, and found that the storm had managed to develop respectable surface winds of 65 mph. However, they reported no sign of an eyewall forming, and additional intensification will be limited until Richard can develop an eyewall. Recent satellite imagery shows that Richard has a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds expanding and covering the center of circulation, a telltale sign of an intensifying tropical storm. Low-level spiral bands are becomign more prominent, and upper-level outflow is improving on all sides except the west. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west of Richard, and this dry air is still causing some trouble for the storm. The next hurricane hunter aircraft is due in the storm near 8pm EDT tonight.


Figure 1. Forecast radius of tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph (dark green colors), winds of 58+ mph (light green colors) and hurricane force winds of 74+ mph (yellow colors) as predicted by NHC at 11am EDT 10/23/10. Hurricane force winds are predicted to affect just a small region to the northeast of Richard's center, beginning Sunday morning.

Forecast for Richard
The latest set of 2am EDT (6Z) model runs are similar to the previous set of runs. Richard will continue to move just north of west today, in response to a ridge of high pressure that is expected to build in over the Caribbean. This path will bring the center of Richard very close to Guanaja and Roatan Islands off the northern coast of Honduras near 8am EDT Sunday. Residents of those islands can expect tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to arrive at the islands between 8 pm - midnight EDT tonight. A good way to estimate these arrival times is using the wundermap with the "hurricane" layer turned on and the "wind radius" and "forecast" boxes checked. The coast of Belize can expect tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to arrive Sunday afternoon, between noon - 4pm EDT. The 11am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 89%. Belize City is next highest, at 69%. Richard will pass very close to the coast of northern Honduras today, which may limit intensification some. Dry air to the west may also be a problem for the storm, and it is unlikely that Richard will grow stronger than a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. NHC is currently giving Richard a 4% chance of intensifying into a Category 3 or stronger hurricane before making landfall in Belize on Sunday. The models predict that Richard will dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday. If the storm does make it to the Gulf of Mexico, Richard will probably dissipate by Tuesday or Wednesday, due to high wind shear, and the storm is not a threat to the U.S.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered near the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is encountering 30 knots of wind shear. The shear is predicted to rise over the few days, discouraging further development. NHC is giving 90L a 20% of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.

No news yet on Cyclone Giri's impact on Myanmar
Powerful Cyclone Giri made landfall Friday morning on the coast of Myanmar (Burma) as an upper-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds. Giri strengthened from a 60 mph tropical storm at to a 155 mph Category 4 storm in just 24 hours, leaving little time to evacuate the coastal regions in its path. Giri's winds at landfall were 20 mph stronger than those of Cyclone Nargis of 2008, which killed over 138,000 people. However, Giri hit a portion of the Myanmar coast that is not as heavily populated or as low-lying, so this will not be another Nargis catastrophe. Nevertheless, Giri's record strength and remarkably rapid intensification rate undoubtedly surprised an unprepared population, and the potential exists for a significant death toll. Communications with the disaster area are out, and the impacts of the storm are unknown at this time.

Typhoon Megi hits China
Typhoon Megi made landfall on the coast of China opposite from Taiwan near noon local time on Saturday afternoon. Megi was a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds at landfall, and brougt torrential rains to both China and Taiwan. Mudslides and flooding from Megi's rains in Taiwan left 12 people dead and 26 missing, and the typhoon is also killed 36 people and left $176 million in damage earlier this week in the Philippines. The remnants of Megi are bringing only moderate amounts of rain to the coast of China this afternoon, and flooding damage may not be a great as previously feared.


Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Megi at 10:30am Taiwan time on Saturday, October 23, 2010, as Megi was making landfall on the coast of China opposite from Taiwan. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday.

Our weather extremes expert Christopher C. Burt has a very interesting post today on the hottest temperatures ever measured on Earth.

Jeff Masters

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937. CosmicEvents
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:40 (GMT)
Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update Oct. 24th. 2010

As always a great update and another forecast nailed. Another season.
You all should keep Weatherguy03 in mind for next season. He's the best we have on WU. Has been doing this for 6 years now. God willing and if Bob wants and has the time, he'll do it again next year. I hope.
Member Since: 3.08.2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5462
936. nocaneindy
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:36 (GMT)
New Blog
Member Since: 21.09.2007 Posts: 34 Comments: 515
935. Patrap
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:35 (GMT)
ReliefWEB

OCHA Situation Report No. 1 - Myanmar - Cyclone Giri
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125681
934. CaicosRetiredSailor
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:34 (GMT)
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
i have another box below comment box, i cliked on the button on the far right, for some unknown reason and this is what happened.


At top of this page click on settings
then select page preferences
then reset page preferences to default
Member Since: 12.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
932. kmanhurricaneman
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:25 (GMT)
tried closing browser and reopen , that didnt work ok gonna reboot.
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
930. Patrap
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:21 (GMT)
Thats a script error possibly.

Close yer browser,,and re-open.

If that fails to remedy it,,try a re-start.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125681
929. kmanhurricaneman
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:20 (GMT)
i have another box below comment box, i cliked on the button on the far right, for some unknown reason and this is what happened.
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
928. LavosPhoenix
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:19 (GMT)
The problem with conspiracy theories about weather modification is that people don't realize the huge amount of energy that even a simple thunderstorm consists of. Sure, man can try and alter the nucleation of precipitation (cloud seeding) to cause it to rain or to prevent the accumulation of drops into big ice onions (hail), but again, that's just affecting the physical properties of precip, not changing the amount of energy causing evaporation, lift, turbulence in a storm. Other (unintentional) weather modification that may be occuring is of course, all the greenhouse gasses being emitted by our civilization.
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
927. stillwaiting
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:19 (GMT)
i wouldnt rule out ri over next 6-8hrs and a cat3 is looking like a definate possiblity imo likely....
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
926. Neapolitan
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:19 (GMT)
1) Only five other seasons since 1950 have ended with a double-digit number of hurricanes: 1998 (10), 1950 and 1995 (11), 1969 (12), and--of course--2005 (15).

2) The mean (average) number of hurricanes from 1950 thru 2009 has been 6.2, while the median for the same period has been six. (From 1995-2009, that median has been nine.)
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13293
925. all4hurricanes
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:16 (GMT)

This is one of the deadliest Atlantic Hurricanes ever and perhaps Belize's worst. I think Richard could possibly pull off 115mph but he has to really get his act together in the next 6 hours. Hopefully he won't be the Belize hurricane but it happened before it can happen again
Member Since: 29.03.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2338
924. kmanhurricaneman
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:13 (GMT)
can some one assist, all my buttons for posting links,images,bold,italics disapeared does any one know what might have happened?
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
923. Neapolitan
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:09 (GMT)
1) Richard's ACE is barely below Fiona's, and will surpass hers--and probably Lisa's, as well--by tonight. He's currently in 11th place for the year, so he'll be in either 10th or possibly 9th by midnight.

2) Richard has so far contributed 2.03% of this year's total ACE. (For comparison, Nicole contributed a whopping 0.09% toward the current total, while Igor threw in a monstrous 29.57%.)

3) This year's ACE has now reached 145, which is the number 2008 ended with
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13293
922. CybrTeddy
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:09 (GMT)
Hurricane Richard.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
921. SouthDadeFish
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:09 (GMT)
Rapid Intensification is very possible, if not likely, before Richard makes landfall in Belize. Satellite appearance is very impressive and radar shows the eyewall closing off.
Member Since: 12.08.2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
920. Patrap
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:08 (GMT)
Richard Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125681
919. TampaSpin
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:02 (GMT)
Quoting stillwaiting:
richies path since yesterday and its projected path is identical to alexs', i wouldn't doubt that haarp is" pumping the ridges",lol...the yucatan this yr is like fl wasin04,like a tc magnet...


We was lucky the high was positioned so far South this year.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
918. stillwaiting
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:59 (GMT)
richies path since yesterday and its projected path is identical to alexs', i wouldn't doubt that haarp is" pumping the ridges",lol...the yucatan this yr is like fl wasin04,like a tc magnet...
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
917. TampaSpin
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:58 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
916. CybrTeddy
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:54 (GMT)
SPECIAL BLOG UPDATE
Richard becomes a hurricane, likely to strengthen further 10/24/10
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
912. CybrTeddy
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:45 (GMT)
...RICHARD BECOMES A HURRICANE...
10:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 24
Location: 16.9°N 86.9°W
Max sustained: 85 mph
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
910. kmanhurricaneman
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:43 (GMT)
weatherguy03- nice job
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
909. CybrTeddy
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:41 (GMT)
Richard now at 85 mph on the NHC site, predicted to become a Category 2.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
907. Sfloridacat5
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:40 (GMT)
Looks like the northern eye wall will scrape Belize. Movement seems to be WNW slightly north of the NHC forecast path.
Member Since: 16.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4793
905. CaicosRetiredSailor
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:37 (GMT)
Member Since: 12.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
904. Orcasystems
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:36 (GMT)




The HH has gone home.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
903. Neapolitan
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:34 (GMT)
Quoting shikori:
According to Naiditch, HAARP is an attractive target for conspiracy theorists because "its purpose seems deeply mysterious to the scientifically uninformed".

No surprise there; pretty much everything seems mysterious to the scientifically uninformed: magnets, chewing gum, ATMs, climate change, rainbows, the filling in a Hostess Twinkie... ;-)
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13293
902. CybrTeddy
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:34 (GMT)
Eye becoming more and more apparent with each frame.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
900. CybrTeddy
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:29 (GMT)
Hurricane Richard
AL, 19, 2010102412, , BEST, 0, 168N, 864W, 70, 990, HU



Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
898. weatherwart
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:28 (GMT)
Quoting shikori:
HAARP
High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program
Clearly has nothing to do with weather.

Not according to the Conspiracy nuts (that was a total waste of 30 mins). HAARP's array can cause earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, droughts and thunderstorms. Okie dokie.
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
897. weatherguy03
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:28 (GMT)
Tropical Update Oct. 24th. 2010
Member Since: 5.07.2005 Posts: 589 Comments: 29691
896. Orcasystems
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:27 (GMT)
Quoting shikori:
HAARP
High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program
Clearly has nothing to do with weather.


and CIA has nothing to do with Intelligent people... your point? j/k
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
895. Neapolitan
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:26 (GMT)
BTW, ATCF says hurricane. That's 17-10-5:

AL, 19, 2010102412, , BEST, 0, 168N, 864W, 70, 990, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 10, 15, 1011, 130, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, RICHARD, D,
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13293
894. Neapolitan
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:24 (GMT)
Quoting toddbizz:
ok here's a good one...does anyone on this blog think it's a little strange or coinmcidental that every storm this year happens to "luckily" veer away from the CONUS...fish storms one after the other...near misses of what would have otherwise been catastrophic landfalls...HARP...multi-billion dollar insurance companies...the lack of a federal response to yet another Katrina like disaster...just a thought...there's NO WAY that natural climatology has miraculously steered every storm away from the US this year...that's a gut feeling...and no I am not some whack job conspiracy truther...please feel free to comment...

The amount of energy it would take to deflect a fully-fledged storm in a particular direction would be tremendous. For starters, you'd have to control the global flow of air currents--no small feat. It would be far easier, vastly cheaper, and arouse far less suspicion if you used your HAARP generator to prevent the storms from forming in the first place. And since that's the obvious answer, why was that not done instead?

Simply put, there are seasons where many storms make landfall in a particular area, and others where they don't. Where a particular storm goes isn't controlled by any manmade machine or benevolent supreme being; it just follow the path of least resistance as most every inanimate object in the universe does. And if it turns out you're not in its way, be happy.
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13293
892. weatherwart
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:24 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


You read some of those posts... and you find it hard to believe some of the people would even be trusted with a Drivers license.


What I find hard to believe is that Jesse Ventura was ever elected to any high political office.
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
891. kmanhurricaneman
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:22 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


You read some of these posts... and you find it hard to believe some of the people would even be trusted with a Drivers license.

ROFLMAO
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
890. Orcasystems
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:21 (GMT)
Quoting weatherwart:


It's HAARP, right? Yeah. Unfortunately, I watched that Jesse Ventura Conspiracy Theory show, too. *insert rolling eyes emoticon here*


You read some of those posts... and you find it hard to believe some of the people would even be trusted with a Drivers license.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
889. kmanhurricaneman
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:17 (GMT)
oh snap!! i forgot to call HARP i dont want this Richard to hit Belize lets point him to cuba give him to Fidel.
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
888. weatherwart
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:16 (GMT)
Quoting toddbizz:
ok here's a good one...does anyone on this blog think it's a little strange or coinmcidental that every storm this year happens to "luckily" veer away from the CONUS...fish storms one after the other...near misses of what would have otherwise been catastrophic landfalls...HARP...multi-billion dollar insurance companies...the lack of a federal response to yet another Katrina like disaster...just a thought...there's NO WAY that natural climatology has miraculously steered every storm away from the US this year...that's a gut feeling...and no I am not some whack job conspiracy truther...please feel free to comment...


It's HAARP, right? Yeah. Unfortunately, I watched that Jesse Ventura Conspiracy Theory show, too. *insert rolling eyes emoticon here*
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
887. MiamiHurricanes09
24. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:14 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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