Tropical Storm Richard is likely later today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:48 (GMT)

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The Hurricane Hunters are in Tropical Depression Nineteen, and have found winds of tropical storm force that support upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm Richard. Between 8:15 - 8:30am EDT, the Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft measured surface winds of 40 - 70 mph with their SFMR instrument in the heavy thunderstorm region on the east side of TD 19's center. Winds at the aircraft's flight level of 1400 feet peaked at 46 mph. These measurements support upgrading TD 19 to at least a 40 mph tropical storm. Winds have been steadily rising this morning at NOAA buoy 42057, located about 50 miles west-southwest of the center of TD 19, on its weak side. Winds were 27 mph, gusting to 29 mph, at 7:43am EDT this morning. Recent satellite imagery shows that the surface circulation center of TD 19 is nearly exposed to view, thanks to moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots from upper-level southwesterly winds. TD 19 has a moderate and increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity which is getting more organized, with a curved spiral band forming on the storm's south side. The storm is bringing very heavy rain to Jamaica. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west and north of TD 19, and the southwesterly winds over the storm are bringing some of this dry into the core of the storm, keeping all the heavy thunderstorm development confined to the east side of the center. The waters beneath TD 19 are very warm, 29°C, but TD 19 will not be able to take full advantage of these warm waters until the shear relaxes and stops pushing dry air into the core.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 19.

Intensity forecast for TD 19
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, through Friday morning. As the storm moves westwards on Friday, it will position itself beneath an upper-level high pressure system, which will allow shear to drop to the low range, less than 10 knots. With water temperatures a very warm 29°C and warm waters extending to great depth, TD 19 should be able to attain at least Category 1 hurricane strength by Saturday. NHC is currently giving TD 19 a 3% chance of becoming a major Category 3 hurricane. Given the latest data from the Hurricane Hunters and the latest set of computer models runs, I believe the odds are higher, near 30%. The main inhibiting factor for intensification will be the possibility of the dry air to the west of TD 19 getting wrapped into the core of the storm while it is trying to organize.

Track forecast for TD 19
Steering currents are weak in the Western Caribbean, and will remain weak through Friday morning, resulting in a slow, erratic movement for TD 19. A slow drift to the south is the most popular track expected by the major models. Thus, Jamaica can expect rains to increase and become torrential at times until Saturday, when the storm will finally move off. The Cayman Islands and possibly the north coast of Honduras can also expect very heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches Friday through Saturday. By Friday afternoon, a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing TD 19 to the west or west-northwest, bringing the storm to a landfall in Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Sunday night. The models are divided on what might happen after Sunday, with the GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models indicating a continued west-northwest track taking TD 19 across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico, where high wind shear would destroy the storm early next week before it could make landfall in the U.S. The other model solution, provided by the ECMWF, GFDL, and HWRF models, is for TD 19 to get caught up by a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. early next week, which would take the storm to the northwest through the Yucatan Channel and into the west coast of Florida as early as Monday night. A band of very strong upper-level winds associated with the jet stream will be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, so it is likely that if TD 19 follows this track, the storm will be weakening quickly as it approaches Florida. Either solution is possible, and we will have to wait to see what future model runs show will happen. The 5am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras and Cozumel in Mexico, at 34% and 37%, respectively. Key West is the only U.S. city being given odds, and these are just 3%. These odds will very likely rise with the 11am NHC advisory.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday (Invest 90L) has a modest amount of spin and some growing thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving the system a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. This system is not a threat to cross the Atlantic and affect the Lesser Antilles or North America.

Typhoon Megi takes aim at China
Typhoon Megi continues it slow march towards China at 5 mph, and is expected to make landfall Saturday morning on the Chinese coast opposite from Taiwan. Megi has been gradually declining in strength as it heads north, due to steadily rising wind shear (now a moderate 10 - 20 knots) and cooling sea surface temperatures. Megi is moving slow enough and is large and powerful enough that it is probably upwelling cold water from the depths to the surface faster than it can move away, and these upwelling cool waters are keeping Megi from being a major Category 3 typhoon. Wind shear will increase dramatically to 20 - 40 knots on Friday as the typhoon makes its final approach to the coast of China, and this shear should be high enough to reduce Megi to Category 1 status before landfall. Megi will still be a very large and powerful storm capable of causing considerable wind and storm surge damage even at Category 1 strength. However, heavy rain will likely be the storm's main threat, since it is moving slowly and is a huge storm. I expect Megi will be a billion-dollar disaster for China, mostly due to flooding from heavy rains. The outer rain bands of Megi are already affecting the coast of China near Taiwan, as seen on China's radar composite, as well as Taiwan radar.

The clean-up continues in the Philippines from Megi, which hit northern Luzon island on Monday morning at 3:30 UTC as a Category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 914 mb. Severe damage was done to Isabela Province in northern Luzon, and 19 deaths are being blamed on the storm. Considering most major typhoon that have hit the Philippine in recent year have killed hundreds and sometimes thousands of people, the low death toll from Megi is a testament to the excellent efforts by officials in the Philippines to get people out of harm's way in advance of the storm.


Figure 2. Rainfall rate for Megi as observed by the F-17 polar orbiting satellite at 5:49am EDT October 21, 2010. Heavy rains in excess of one inch per hour (orange colors) were present on the south side of Megi's eye, and a region of heavy rain was also present in a spiral band approaching the coast of China opposite from Taiwan. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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648. hydrus
22. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:25 (GMT)
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19521
647. RadarRich
22. lokakuuta 2010 klo 00:37 (GMT)
Just an Observation....
This may not significantly decrease the chances of TS Richard to intensify, but, the amount of time he has spent in this area, may cause some serious upwelling of water from the depths.
As the surface water continues to cool, the storm's energy source will be diminishing, at least in the short term as he meanders around 16.0N/80.5W. He was at 17.0N/80.7W 15 hours ago at 5AM Thursday Morning.
The longer duration of Richard spends over this certain area for a prolonged period, enables colder water to get upwelled to the surface. So remember, if a hurricane spins around in the same area for a couple of days, chances are that its own wind (causing the high seas)(upwelling) will eventually cause it to weaken a tad, who knows?
That is until he gets his giddyup on to the West.....JMO, Rich

Member Since: 28.06.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 406
646. CaribBoy
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 20:34 (GMT)
CATL LOW DESERVES A YELLOW CIRCLE IMO
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5589
645. oracle28
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 20:30 (GMT)
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Anyone else thinking the LLC is getting sucked into to the east?


Personally, I think it's getting blown from the west, but it's all semantics.
Member Since: 25.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
644. oracle28
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 20:29 (GMT)
Quoting pioggiasuper:
XTRP has it going to Columbia. Richard must be on drugs.


No the XTRP is wrong, must be feedback issues.
Member Since: 25.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
643. Bordonaro
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 20:20 (GMT)
Quoting aspectre:
TropicalStormRichard's heading had turned southward to dueSouth
from its previous heading of (3.3degree east of) SouthEast
TS.Richard's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had decreased to ~2.3mph(~3.8km/h) from its previous moving speed of ~10.3mph(~16.6km/h)
Invest 99L
20Oct 12pmGMT - 17.7n82.5w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF*1007mb
20Oct 06pmGMT - 17.6n81.7w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF*17.1n82.2w*17.6n81.6w
TropicalDepression19
21Oct 12amGMT - 17.5n81.2w - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF*17.6n81.2w
21Oct 03amGMT - 17.5n81.1w - 35mph (~56.3km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#1
21Oct 06amGMT - 17.2n80.9w - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF*17.3n80.9w*1005mb*17.2n80.8w
21Oct 09amGMT - 17.0n80.7w - 35mph (~56.3km/h) _ 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#2
TropicalStormRichard
21Oct 12amGMT - 16.6n80.6w - 35knots(~64.8km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF*30knots*16.5n80.7w
21Oct 03pmGMT - 16.2n80.4w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#3
21Oct 06pmGMT - 16.1n80.4w - 35knots(~64.8km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF
* Before NHC reevaluated&revised the ATCF numbers.

Copy&paste 17.7n82.5w, 17.6n81.7w, 17.5n81.2w, 17.5n81.1w, 17.2n80.9w-17.0n80.7w, 17.0n80.7w-16.6n80.6w, 16.6n80.6w-16.2n80.4w, 16.2n80.4w-16.1n80.4w, tji, puz, jee into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Member Since: 25.08.2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
642. BLee2333
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 20:12 (GMT)
Quoting FLWaterFront:


The Big Bend region is especially prone to storm surge flooding.

Dixie County, FL got pummeled by the 1993 "Super Storm" in March of that year. And that was not even a surface low pressure storm system, such as a TC, it was a wintertime upper-level cyclonic storm.

I think the death toll in that county with the March '93 storm was somewhere between 10 and 20, total. And that is saying a lot because the area is very sparsely settled.

Those folks were caught off guard of course. But the problem with the Big Bend is that the Continental Shelf in that area is very near the sea surface, the waters up to miles offshore are just a few feet deep at most. This compounds storm surge greatly.


BINGO!

I remember the '93 storm well. It brought snow flurries to Panama City.

Below is link to graphical charts for the Florida Gulf Coast. You can look there and see what size storm brings what kind of surge anywhere on the coast.


Link
Member Since: 6.01.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
641. FLWaterFront
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 20:05 (GMT)
Quoting TampaTom:


A point well taken...

However, where is the line drawn? Elena in 1985 never got closer than 100 miles to the Pinellas coast, yet brought wind, waves and flooding... Would that be considered a 'direct hit?'

The only one of the storms on that list that brought hurricane force winds to Pinellas was Alma in 1966... the winds peaked at 82 mph. in Treasure Island, but, across the peninsula about 10 miles away in St. Pete, the winds peaked at 65 mph.

Can you say that storm brought hurricane conditions to Pinellas and the greater Tampa Bay area? Probably not...

This leaves us back at 1921 with widespread hurricane winds across the bay area AND a landfall...


Actually, Gladys did bring sustained hurricane force winds to the coastal counties just north of Tampa Bay, such as Pasco and Hernando. Those are officially in the TB area.

And I don't know this to be a fact but I would find it hard to believe that Hurricane Easy in '50 did not bring hurricane force winds to the immediate coastal areas. It was a 120 mph max-sustained winds storm when it was passing by, just a few miles to the west of the coast.
That would mean that the right front quadrant of the eyewall must have passed over the Pinellas coast.

The problem though is that the population of the Tampa Bay area in 1950 was very low and most of the official weather measuring instrumentation was likely in Tampa, some 20 or so miles further to the east.
Member Since: 15.10.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 713
640. hurricanejunky
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 20:04 (GMT)
Quoting iamajeepmom:


I met some of my neighbors for the first time and I've lived in the same place since the mid 80's (waving at you from the beach area!) ... honestly, we had the BEST halloween party that year ... only because Shooters was still closed and didn't have the party that year (which a bunch of us always walked down for the party!) ... wouldn't wish it upon anyone ever again but it really was different and not all "that" bad looking back on it :)


You can see what people in the Keys had to deal with:

Wilma: The Untold Story
Member Since: 28.08.2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
639. FLWaterFront
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 20:00 (GMT)
Quoting BLee2333:


Think the people in the big bend area may disagree with you and ask if you've researched what affect the shelf off shore in that area has on a storm surge...


The Big Bend region is especially prone to storm surge flooding.

Dixie County, FL got pummeled by the 1993 "Super Storm" in March of that year. And that was not even a surface low pressure storm system, such as a TC, it was a wintertime upper-level cyclonic storm.

I think the death toll in that county with the March '93 storm was somewhere between 10 and 20, total. And that is saying a lot because the area is very sparsely settled.

Those folks were caught off guard of course. But the problem with the Big Bend is that the Continental Shelf in that area is very near the sea surface, the waters up to miles offshore are just a few feet deep at most. This compounds storm surge greatly.
Member Since: 15.10.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 713
638. TampaTom
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:57 (GMT)
Quoting BLee2333:


Think the people in the big bend area may disagree with you and ask if you've researched what affect the shelf off shore in that area has on a storm surge...


Tropical Storm Josephine in 1996 brought a very high surge for the strength of storm... and it hit in the big bend. Funny, it was another October system...
Member Since: 20.06.2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1050
637. BLee2333
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:55 (GMT)
Quoting AEKDB1990:
I think Richard will not be a major if it hits north of Tampa. The water in the northern Gulf has cooled. If it weakened to a Cat 1 and hit in the sparsely populated Big Bend the rains from northern Florida to the interior south atlantic states might be more beneficial than the damage at landfall.


Think the people in the big bend area may disagree with you and ask if you've researched what affect the shelf off shore in that area has on a storm surge...
Member Since: 6.01.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
636. TampaTom
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:51 (GMT)
Quoting FLWaterFront:


I think that was the last Tampa landfall for a hurricane.

But that statistic can be misleading. Hurricane Easy in 1950 grazed the Tampa Bay area as a Cat 3, with the center passing by just a few miles offshore. This was in early September of that year.

Then the storm did a loop-de-loop in the Gulf, coming back south, right offshore before finally heading back out to sea and then swinging back around to the east again, finally making landfall near Cedar Key.

In 1966, Hurricane Alma was a Cat 3 in the GOM and in the first week of June, which was a record for such a strong storm so early in the season. This one grazed Pinellas County, FL while staying about 20-30 miles out to sea at its closest point, and then headed NNW further out into the Gulf before turning to the NE and then making landfall in the Florida Big Bend as a Cat 2.

In October of '68, Gladys was a strong Cat 1 hurricane and again, it passed the Tampa Bay area just offshore with its COC about 20 miles out, at most. That one made landfall in Homosassa Springs, 60 miles north of Tampa.

All of these storms caused damage and significant wind and water impacts in the Tampa Bay area. But because they did not officially make landfall in the TB area, they are often lost in the annals of history. A storm does not need to make landfall to have a major impact on a region that it passes through or nearby.


A point well taken...

However, where is the line drawn? Elena in 1985 never got closer than 100 miles to the Pinellas coast, yet brought wind, waves and flooding... Would that be considered a 'direct hit?'

The only one of the storms on that list that brought hurricane force winds to Pinellas was Alma in 1966... the winds peaked at 82 mph. in Treasure Island, but, across the peninsula about 10 miles away in St. Pete, the winds peaked at 65 mph.

Can you say that storm brought hurricane conditions to Pinellas and the greater Tampa Bay area? Probably not...

This leaves us back at 1921 with widespread hurricane winds across the bay area AND a landfall...
Member Since: 20.06.2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1050
635. kwgirl
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:48 (GMT)
Quoting KennyNebraska:




"You're not only wrong. You're wrong at the top of your voice" -- Richard Widmark
ROFLMFAO
Member Since: 28.03.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
632. toddbizz
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:39 (GMT)
Reedzone at least your not SFL hyping it this time...you do give input but...but it's always an imenant SFL hit...however....now that I said all this you probably know what's gonna happen....
Member Since: 28.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 77
630. kmanislander
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:37 (GMT)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
afternoon kman iam hoping this is a overhype but we got trouble for ya in 72 hrs from now


Looks to be far enough away so as not to be a problem. Both Felix and Dean passed fairly close to our SW, particularly Dean, without incident. Still, until Richard is gone from the neighbourhood I am sleeping with one eye open.

Here is Dean's track

Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
629. caneswatch
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:37 (GMT)
Quoting Grothar:


What mistakes????? LOL


Oh, there are some lol. Meet you in the new blog.
Member Since: 8.10.2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
628. sunlinepr
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:36 (GMT)
Unfavorable conditions, but fighting...

Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
627. jonelu
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:36 (GMT)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
REMEMBER MODELS ARE MEANT TO BE USED AS
GUIDANCE ONLY AND DONOT DEPICT
FINAL OUTCOME TO ANY ONE SINGLE EVENT
THINGS CAN AND WILL CHANGE


Best quote of the day...
Member Since: 31.10.2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 882
625. Grothar
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:35 (GMT)
Quoting caneswatch:


Yeah, we are very good friends. He just always gets me for my mistakes and I get him for his lol


What mistakes????? LOL
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23710
623. seflagamma
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:34 (GMT)
Quoting iamajeepmom:


I met some of my neighbors for the first time and I've lived in the same place since the mid 80's (waving at you from the beach area!) ... honestly, we had the BEST halloween party that year ... only because Shooters was still closed and didn't have the party that year (which a bunch of us always walked down for the party!) ... wouldn't wish it upon anyone ever again but it really was different and not all "that" bad looking back on it :)


Nice to meet you, you are about 10 miles east of me!

Most of my neighbors are all very friendly but we had a few that are not that social and they did get out and meet the rest of us.

As soon as the storm finally passed we had one neighbor with a generator that we got cranking after the storm and used extension cords to hook up to coffee makers!
Me and the others made pot after pot of hot coffee and took it outside to the men who were working together to clear our streets and yards.(remember it was cold after Wilma passed thru here) .it was real team work and our neighborhood was in good shape fast..

the BAD part was not the "fun" stuff, it was all the "out of pocket" money this storm cost us... our home was good, but we lost our fence and 90% of our landscaping and of course the screens in our patio... every leaf off our shade trees! etc.. had to pay for big equipment to dig out roots that were still in the ground from the fallen trees and large shrubs...
and of course, none of this was covered by insurance...we had about $9,000 from our pocket to pay for immediate repairs...not counting redoing all the landscaping over the next few years.

It was a LOT of hard work cleaning up afterwards...

not something I want to do again this year! LOL
Member Since: 29.08.2005 Posts: 294 Comments: 40839
622. WeatherfanPR
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:34 (GMT)
Quoting kmanislander:


It is, that Invest just doesn't know it yet.


LOL, LOL, LOL !!! somebody tell him !!!!!
Member Since: 23.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1563
621. Stormchaser2007
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:34 (GMT)
Man doesn't know when to stop.

Joe Bastardi


"THURSDAY 1 P.M.

IS RICHARD GOING TO BE THE STRONGEST STORM OF THE YEAR?

That option, though distant is on the table. Latest model runs try to take this west (the GFS and UKMET also) and of course that would bring to mind what happened with the greatest late-season storm on record, on what is still the warmest satellite year on record, Mitch in late October and early November 1998... also an analog year to this year.

It will be interesting to see if Richard is getting pulled even farther east under the convection, though the convection is expanding west. I was expecting a more northward run of the GFS at midday, but it did not respond. However, the increase in organization, though slow now, may suddenly feed back, and this could be a major hurricane with sub 950 mb pressure by Saturday evening, and then it's anyone's guess how low it can go before interacting with land.

I have not changed my track ideas yet, as there is plenty of time to figure this out. However, I am more bullish on the rapid intensification and the idea this will become a major hurricane.

That would make 6, arguably 7 (Alex was a major, in spite of never getting that rating yet).

Ciao for now. "
Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
620. jasblt
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:33 (GMT)
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
ohhh !!!!! I thought the Cape Verde Season was over !!!!!


According to many on here, the season was over a month ago.
Member Since: 23.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 79
619. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:33 (GMT)
afternoon kman iam hoping this is a overhype but we got trouble for ya in 72 hrs from now
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
618. CycloneUK
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:32 (GMT)
SST anomalies one month ago:



Now:

Member Since: 5.03.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
617. Buhdog
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:32 (GMT)
after rocking the loop from last to first, you can see the CDO expand about 5x the size and actually move slightly NW IMO....
Member Since: 30.07.2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 958
616. caneswatch
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:32 (GMT)
Quoting Grothar:


Caneswatch and I are very good friends. We tease each other all the time. Back and forth. If you notice he did not take offense. You will never see me correct anyone's English, ever. As a matter of fact, quite the contrary. I have always come to the defense of those who are targeted for that very reason. As many who are on here now can attest. By the way, English is not my first language, but rather my third. Therefore, I am always reluctant to correct someone, since I make similar mistakes in the 5 other languages which I speak.


Yeah, we are very good friends. He just always gets me for my mistakes and I get him for his lol
Member Since: 8.10.2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
615. kwgirl
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:30 (GMT)
Quoting lightningbolt73:
One weird thing about Richard was last night when the Nhc issued the first advisory, the local met was still calling it just an area of low pressure!
Their script writer didn't get the latest. He must be an actor not a met!
Member Since: 28.03.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
614. kmanislander
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:30 (GMT)
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
ohhh !!!!! I thought the Cape Verde Season was over !!!!!


It is, that Invest just doesn't know it yet.
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
612. kmanislander
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:29 (GMT)
Quoting Grothar:


Really good one kman!!!


A mystery around every corner LOL
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
611. kwgirl
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:29 (GMT)
Quoting FLWaterFront:


I think that was the last Tampa landfall for a hurricane.

But that statistic can be misleading. Hurricane Easy in 1950 grazed the Tampa Bay area as a Cat 3, with the center passing by just a few miles offshore. This was in early September of that year.

Then the storm did a loop-de-loop in the Gulf, coming back south, right offshore before finally heading back out to sea and then swinging back around to the east again, finally making landfall near Cedar Key.

In 1966, Hurricane Alma was a Cat 3 in the GOM and in the first week of June, which was a record for such a strong storm so early in the season. This one grazed Pinellas County, FL while staying about 20-30 miles out to sea at its closest point, and then headed NNW further out into the Gulf before turning to the NE and then making landfall in the Florida Big Bend as a Cat 2.

In October of '68, Gladys was a strong Cat 1 hurricane and again, it passed the Tampa Bay area just offshore with its COC about 20 miles out, at most. That one made landfall in Homosassa Springs, 60 miles north of Tampa.

All of these storms caused damage and significant wind and water impacts in the Tampa Bay area. But because they did not officially make landfall in the TB area, they are often lost in the annals of history. A storm does not need to make landfall to have a major impact on a region that it passes through or nearby.
AMEN to that.
Member Since: 28.03.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
610. WeatherfanPR
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:28 (GMT)
ohhh !!!!! I thought the Cape Verde Season was over !!!!!
Member Since: 23.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1563
609. kmanislander
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:28 (GMT)
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Anyone else thinking the LLC is getting sucked into to the east?


It appears to me to have drifted to being near 16 N and 79.8 W, now stationary.
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
608. lightningbolt73
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:28 (GMT)
One weird thing about Richard was last night when the Nhc issued the first advisory, the local met was still calling it just an area of low pressure!
Member Since: 19.10.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 112
607. Grothar
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:27 (GMT)
Quoting kmanislander:


Sounds very similar to tropical forecasting.


Really good one kman!!!
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23710
606. IKE
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:27 (GMT)
12Z ECMWF at 144 hours....



at 168 hours....

Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
605. Txwxchaser
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:27 (GMT)
Quoting Floodman:


LMAO...they're WAY ahead of you


We are here in Texas boys! Not wanting anything xtreme for anyone..just what we do and we're ready to help...plus I love visiting
FL...
Member Since: 13.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 307
603. CyclonicVoyage
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:26 (GMT)
Anyone else thinking the LLC is getting sucked into to the east?
Member Since: 30.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
602. aspectre
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:26 (GMT)
TropicalStormRichard's heading had turned southward to dueSouth
from its previous heading of (3.3degree east of) SouthEast
TS.Richard's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had decreased to ~2.3mph(~3.8km/h) from its previous moving speed of ~10.3mph(~16.6km/h)
Invest 99L
20Oct 12pmGMT - 17.7n82.5w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF*1007mb
20Oct 06pmGMT - 17.6n81.7w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF*17.1n82.2w*17.6n81.6w
TropicalDepression19
21Oct 12amGMT - 17.5n81.2w - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF*17.6n81.2w
21Oct 03amGMT - 17.5n81.1w - 35mph (~56.3km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#1
21Oct 06amGMT - 17.2n80.9w - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF*17.3n80.9w*1005mb*17.2n80.8w
21Oct 09amGMT - 17.0n80.7w - 35mph (~56.3km/h) _ 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#2
TropicalStormRichard
21Oct 12amGMT - 16.6n80.6w - 35knots(~64.8km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF*30knots*16.5n80.7w
21Oct 03pmGMT - 16.2n80.4w - 40mph (~64.4km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#3
21Oct 06pmGMT - 16.1n80.4w - 35knots(~64.8km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF
* Before NHC reevaluated&revised the ATCF numbers.

Copy&paste 17.7n82.5w, 17.6n81.7w, 17.5n81.2w, 17.5n81.1w, 17.2n80.9w-17.0n80.7w, 17.0n80.7w-16.6n80.6w, 16.6n80.6w-16.2n80.4w, 16.2n80.4w-16.1n80.4w, tji, puz, jee into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
601. kmanislander
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:26 (GMT)
Quoting TriMOPER:
Edumacation is the process by which one becomes edumacated, the achievement of which is generally marked by a gradumacation ceremony. Edumacated people know a lot of things, though the process of how they came to know them mostly remains a mystery to onlookers.

http://uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/Edumacation


Sounds very similar to tropical forecasting.
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
600. Grothar
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:25 (GMT)
Quoting Floodman:


Me either...sounds painful


Hey, Flood, do you get mad when I correct your German? LOL
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23710
598. 69Viking
21. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:24 (GMT)
Water temps have cooled considerably in the Northern Gulf so the farther North this thing goes the more chance it has to weaken before any landfall wherever that maybe which at this point seems to be a toss up!
Member Since: 25.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2996

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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