Potentially catastrophic Super Typhoon Megi approaching the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 17. lokakuuta 2010 klo 17:21 (GMT)

Share this Blog
3
+

The world's strongest tropical cyclone of 2010 is Super Typhoon Megi, which intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5 super typhoon with 180 mph winds this morning. We are fortunate to have a hurricane hunter aircraft in Megi, as part of the Interaction of Typhoon and Ocean Project (ITOP), which is studying how the ocean responds to typhoon growth and movement in the Western Pacific Ocean. As part of ITOP, a C-130 hurricane hunter aircraft was in Megi this morning, and measured some truly remarkable winds and pressures. At 8:09am EDT (12:09 UTC), the aircraft measured winds at flight level (8,000 feet) of 220 mph. The SFMR surface wind measurement instrument recorded surface winds of 186 mph in regions where heavy rain was not contaminating the measurement, but found surface winds of 199 mph in one region of heavy rain. Now, this measurement is considered contaminated by rain, but at very high wind speeds, the contamination effect is less important than at lower hurricane wind speeds, and it is possible than Megi's surface winds are close to a sustained 200 mph. This is supported by the flight level winds of 220 mph, which support surface winds of 199 mph, using the usual 10% reduction rule of thumb. The Hurricane Hunters measured a surface pressure of 893 mb at 12 UTC. This is a phenomenally low pressure, ranking Megi as the 20th strongest typhoon ever recorded in the Western Pacific. Only three Atlantic hurricane have been more intense than Megi--Wilma (2005) at 882 mb, Gilbert (1988) at 888 mb, and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, at 892 mb. Megi's intensity easily beats out 2010's other two Category 5 storms, March's Tropical Cyclone Ului in the South Pacific and the East Pacific's Hurricane Celia of June, which both peaked at 160 mph winds. It is still possible that Megi will intensify further, as wind shear is low, less than 10 knots, SSTs are very warm, and the ocean has a very high total heat content.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Megi taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 1am EDT Sunday October 17, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Megi is poised to deal a devastating blow to the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island early Monday morning. If the super typhoon's winds stay near 180 mph, the damage will be catastrophic in the regions where the eyewall makes landfall. The Philippines government is taking Megi very seriously, and has ordered evacuation of all low-lying regions in Megi's path. Equally dangerous will be Megi's torrential rains, which will likely be more than 12 inches over wide regions of northern Luzon, creating dangerous mudslides and life-threatening flash floods. Once Megi crosses Luzon, the storm is expected to re-intensify and hit the Chinese coast between Hainan Island and Hong Kong as a major typhoon on Friday. Storm chaser James Reynolds is in northeast Luzon, and will be shooting pictures and video that he will upload his website typhoonfury.com, and Twitter, @TyphoonFury.

Caribbean disturbance 99L
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama in association with a tropical disturbance (Invest 99L). Recent satellite imagery does show this disturbance has some rotation, and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, which is low enough to allow some slow development. However, the disturbance is headed west at about 5 mph, and all of the major models predict the storm will move over Nicaragua by Tuesday, limiting any chance for development into a tropical depression.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 605 - 555

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

605. TampaSpin
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:42 (GMT)
My bad on the Vorticity i did not relize the chart was old when i was looking at it. Thought it was strange with the rotation that was visible but, one never knows at what level you are seeing rotation tho.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
604. TampaSpin
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:38 (GMT)
602. oracle28 1:34 PM GMT on October 18, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:


Farther south than what? ATCF placed it at 15.1N/82.5W just 45 minutes ago...


I believe it's just south of just north of where it is.



I have 4 different interactive loops on my Website that shows 99L is further South and is about to move inland. Its under the Tab Tropical Storm Center. Go to my WU blog and follow the link to see if you like.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
603. Neapolitan
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:37 (GMT)
Quoting divdog:
...very little 850mb vorticity. not quite sure what to make of it.


The SSEC vorticity charts haven't been updated since Saturday morning, so you can't go by those, if that's what you're using...
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13278
602. oracle28
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:34 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:


Farther south than what? ATCF placed it at 15.1N/82.5W just 45 minutes ago...


I believe it's just south of just north of where it is.
Member Since: 25.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
601. TampaSpin
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:31 (GMT)
I don't see 99L developing at all. Just read where some has it becoming a TD and even a named storm soon. First of all Visible Sat. Loop shows the COC moving inland. Second there is 15-20kts of shear and the shear increases as it moves further North. Third it is weak steering but, what steering there is shows it should move inland and move WSW. Fourth there is NO Voritcity hardly at all at 850mb and Fifth there is little to NO Convergence or Divergence to speak of.

Conclussion: There is little chance less than 10% chance of 99L becoming anything over the next 48hrs. Unless 99L stalls which is possible in the very weak steering it has no chance of becoming anything but, a serious rainmaker.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
600. divdog
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:29 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, that's the NHC's take, as well: a 30% chance for development is a 70% chance against development. But considering that yesterday morning that ratio was just 10%-90%, those odds are improving, no?
I am not sure what to think at this point. It certainly is gaining the look of a td. Crown's main argument was it's proximity to land and that it will eventually go into central america and die as a rainmaker. Shear in the 20 knot range is not helpful but is decreasing. very little 850mb vorticity. not quite sure what to make of it.
Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
599. Neapolitan
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:29 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13278
598. kmanhurricaneman
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:26 (GMT)
99L looks to be shifting to a more northerly direction
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
597. SweetHomeBamaGOM
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:26 (GMT)
Quoting islander101010:
system has a look to it on visiable. probally develop into a large td hopefully it does not hang around that area of the world too long theyve already had more than their share of precip.


agreed. i just get the feeling that a developing hurricane will not have the look it has to it now unless there is a lot of low pressure wrapped up in the middle of it. i think this may become a very large major hurricane by the likes of how it looks, the wind shear tendency showing favorable conditions, and the monsoonal wave of energy spinning up into the middle of this. this may be like looking at jupiter (richard) compared to pluto (paula) in overall size....well, not that much difference but you get the drift...
Member Since: 20.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365
596. jrweatherman
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:26 (GMT)
Quoting Jeff9641:
. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING
WITH LAND...AND DEVELOPMENT COULD BE INHIBITED FOR THAT REASON.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH
.



It's funny how a couple of folks quickly pointed out yesterday that the NHC removed the NW component to the discussion. Now today it is back on and the same people won't mention it.
Member Since: 17.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 650
595. islander101010
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:22 (GMT)
system has a look to it on visiable. probally develop into a large td hopefully it does not hang around that area of the world too long theyve already had more than their share of precip.
Member Since: 11.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
594. TampaSpin
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:20 (GMT)
VEry few if any models currently develop 99L strange tho...the one that does seems to have a pretty good hold on position also....HUM!

Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
593. Neapolitan
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:19 (GMT)
Quoting divdog:
A note from the crown weather discussion this morning.

In my opinion, I think there are too many factors working against development from this system and I think there is a better chance of no development from this system.

Well, that's the NHC's take, as well: a 30% chance for development is a 70% chance against development. But considering that yesterday morning that ratio was just 10%-90%, those odds are improving, no?
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13278
592. rmbjoe1954
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:14 (GMT)
Quoting divdog:
A note from the crown weather discussion this morning.

In my opinion, I think there are too many factors working against development from this system and I think there is a better chance of no development from this system.



There are two potential areas for development. Which one are you talking about?
Member Since: 16.06.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1015
591. SweetHomeBamaGOM
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:13 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Just like waves do not have eyes, waves do not have eyewalls.



lol misspoke, sorry for my ignorance. what i am trying to point out is it appears the inner portion of the invest has a much larger original pocket of low pressure, especially in comparison to paula. also, it appears that it is feeding off of the large monsoonal wave coming across the pacific side. when i looked at the vorticity maps in correlation with the drop in wind shear over the entire GOM and CONUS it just has the look to me that there is a very broad pocket of low pressure beginning to wind up in the center of this, and the feed off of the monsoonal wave appears to be feeding it energy without forming a competitive pacific system. sorry for the confusion from before.
Member Since: 20.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365
590. stillwaiting
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:13 (GMT)

.any surface cente w/99l will soon move over the ne tip of hondurus,reminds me of paula,maybe a td sometime tomorrow if it doesnt continue west into hondurus and manages tto move nw....
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
589. kmanhurricaneman
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:11 (GMT)
14.8 81.9
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
588. divdog
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:10 (GMT)
A note from the crown weather discussion this morning.

In my opinion, I think there are too many factors working against development from this system and I think there is a better chance of no development from this system.

Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
587. Neapolitan
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:10 (GMT)
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think the COC of 99l is a bit further South.


Farther south than what? ATCF placed it at 15.1N/82.5W just 45 minutes ago...
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13278
586. stormpetrol
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:08 (GMT)
I think the COC of 99l is a bit further South.
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
585. DaaiTouLaam
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:07 (GMT)
9pm HKT marine warning up from Hong Kong Observatory
:::TAIWAN STRAIT= NE 8-9, UP TO 10 IN N. DOWN TO 4000 M IN ISOL SQUALLY SHOWERS AND TS. SEA 6-10 M. SWELL NE 3-4 M. =
BASHI= E TO NE 8-9, E TO SE 7-8 LATER. DOWN TO 500 M IN FRQ HEAVY SQUALLY SHOWERS AND TS. SEA 4-8 M. SWELL NE 3-4 M. =
PRATAS= NE 7-8, 9-10 LATER. DOWN TO 500 M IN FRQ HEAVY SQUALLY SHOWERS AND TS. SEA 4-10 M. SWELL NE 3-4 M. =
BALINTANG= E TO NE 10-11, E TO SE 10-11 LATER. DOWN TO 500 M IN FRQ HEAVY SQUALLY SHOWERS AND TS. SEA 10-12 M. SWELL NE 3-4 M. =
SCARBOROUGH= N 10-11, BEC CYCLONIC 12. DOWN TO 500 M IN FRQ HEAVY SQUALLY SHOWERS AND TS. SEA 10-14 M. SWELL NE 3-4 M. =:::

Waves at 10-14meters w. another 3-4m swells
Member Since: 7.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 110
584. stormpetrol
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:05 (GMT)
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
583. TropicalAnalystwx13
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:05 (GMT)
99L wrapping around fairly quickly. I could see this being named tomorrow, which would allow for Rapid Intensification with the favorable enviroment, something Pauld didn't have, and something that could turn "Richard" into our 10th hurricane, or stronger.



It definitely has the potential to become something scary.
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
580. stillwaiting
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:00 (GMT)
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


do you believe we could see an extended period of intensification today given the broad area of circulation setting up around the coc? if it forms a very large beginning eyewall it will have a ton of area to wind up tighter.

...not possibl,as a general rule the larger the disturbance,the longer it should take to organize and vice versa...
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
578. TropicalAnalystwx13
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:51 (GMT)
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


do you believe we could see an extended period of intensification today given the broad area of circulation setting up around the coc? if it forms a very large beginning eyewall it will have a ton of area to wind up tighter.



Just like waves do not have eyes, waves do not have eyewalls.
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
577. kmanhurricaneman
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:49 (GMT)
Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 16.834N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 18 Oct 2010 11:50:00 UTC
Winds: ESE (120°) at 9.7 kt gusting to 9.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.91 in and rising
Air Temperature: 79.7 F
Dew Point: 75.4 F
Water Temperature: 84.2 F
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
576. SweetHomeBamaGOM
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:41 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:
First daylight 99L RGB:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


As the winds have increased to 25 knots, and as it appears the center of the low may miss or just brush the eastern tip of Honduras, I'd say TD19 is possible/likely today (though pressure is still a tad high at 1010mb). 15.1N / 82.5W.


do you believe we could see an extended period of intensification today given the broad area of circulation setting up around the coc? if it forms a very large beginning eyewall it will have a ton of area to wind up tighter.

Member Since: 20.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365
575. kmanhurricaneman
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:40 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 99L is getting his act together this morning.

I expect to see code "red" when I get home from school today (3:45).

If not, 50% orange.
i do believe you nailed it son, i agree!.
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
574. TropicalAnalystwx13
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:38 (GMT)
Invest 99L is getting his act together this morning.

I expect to see code "red" when I get home from school today (3:45).

If not, 50% orange.

99L up to 30 mph, but pressure is still high at 1010 mb.
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
573. SweetHomeBamaGOM
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:38 (GMT)
Quoting gordydunnot:
99L looks exactly like a Paula repeat unless it gets stuck east of Belize for a few days. West to east winds north of Cuba still look ridiculous. Even though there is every other reason for something to develop, this factor alone I think trumps all as in the first half of the season.



you may want to see the wind shear tendency loop

Link

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

in the past 48 hrs. it appears as if the large area of wind shear that has been supplying dry air and wind suppression in the GOM is now sliding east.
Member Since: 20.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365
572. kmanhurricaneman
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:37 (GMT)
hey WUNDERKIDCAYMAN listen just messing with you man i know different, blog was too quiet eh!!
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
571. kmanhurricaneman
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:34 (GMT)
you know the hwrf model wasnt far off with paula so i am paying a little more attention to that one.
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
570. Neapolitan
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:33 (GMT)
First daylight 99L RGB:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


As the winds have increased to 25 knots, and as it appears the center of the low may miss or just brush the eastern tip of Honduras, I'd say TD19 is possible/likely today (though pressure is still a tad high at 1010mb). 15.1N / 82.5W.
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13278
569. GeoffreyWPB
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:33 (GMT)
AL, 99, 2010101812, 151N, 825W, 25, 1010, LO
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
568. 7544
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:32 (GMT)
hwrf seems to like 99l will the others pick it up also today

Link
Member Since: 6.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
567. kmanhurricaneman
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:32 (GMT)
gotta get ready for work c ya guys lata.
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
566. jrweatherman
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:31 (GMT)
The downcasters are out in full force today!
Member Since: 17.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 650
565. kmanhurricaneman
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:30 (GMT)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
kmanhurricaneman the downcaster that is his new title
so you are are our new wishcaster!!!
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
564. stillwaiting
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:25 (GMT)
no ri possible without a closed llc,rapid organization is possible w/99l,but not likely...
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
563. wunderkidcayman
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:25 (GMT)
well the hurricane hunters are going to fly tomorrow afternoon into our invest

000NOUS42 KNHC 171330WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.0930 AM EDT SUN 17 OCTOBER 2010SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z OCTOBER 2010 TCPOD NUMBER.....10-138I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR 13.5N AND 82.5W.II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9592
562. gordydunnot
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:25 (GMT)
99L looks exactly like a Paula repeat unless it gets stuck east of Belize for a few days. West to east winds north of Cuba still look ridiculous. Even though there is every other reason for something to develop, this factor alone I think trumps all as in the first half of the season.
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
561. HCW
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:23 (GMT)
Member Since: 10.08.2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1346
560. kmanhurricaneman
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:23 (GMT)
heh heh heh i knew i would get that one, hoping nothing actually forms and heads our way Cayman cant take nothing right now, it is really sad how things are going here.
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
559. wunderkidcayman
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:20 (GMT)
kmanhurricaneman the downcaster that is his new title
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9592
558. kmanhurricaneman
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:19 (GMT)
dang!!! i really was looking for some agreement even though i really know better, oh well!!! TD by 5 pm
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
557. wunderkidcayman
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:17 (GMT)
well not really kmanhurricaneman looks better than before so no R.I.P.
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9592
556. kmanhurricaneman
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:16 (GMT)
MMMMMMMMMMMMMM......... blog is quiet kind or erie calm before the storm , i dont see 99l becoming much of anything but a rainmaker too close to land and moving even closer, so r.i.p 99l
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
555. SweetHomeBamaGOM
18. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:14 (GMT)
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:

i think we may be witnessing the beginning of r.i. with 99L.

notice the very top of the convection in this loop. it looks like venting may be setting up on the perimeter of the convection. i would expect a correlation of dropping pressure now.



Link

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html
Member Since: 20.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 365

Viewing: 605 - 555

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Clear
41 °F
Selkeää