Paula's eyewall disintigrates as the storm weakens

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 13:14 (GMT)

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Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Hurricane Paula continues to weaken, and the storm may no longer be a hurricane. The latest 8:06am EDT center report found the pressure had risen to 1002 mb, and the aircraft saw top winds at their flight level of 10,000 feet of just 60 mph between 6am and 9am EDT. The Hurricane Hunters did not report the existence of an eyewall, and Cuban radar (Figure 1) indicates that the southern portion of the eyewall has collapsed, leaving Paula with just 1/3 of an eyewall. Paula is moving at 5 mph along the northern coast of Cuba, and is bringing heavy rains to the western portion of the island. Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba has picked up 4.85" of rain so far from Paula, and a wind gust of 60 mph was reported on the western tip of the island. Heavy rains have also hit the Florida Keys this morning, with Key West picking up 0.62" inches of rain in just 30 minutes from a heavy rain squall that ended at 7:30am EDT. Weather radar out of Key West (Figure 2) noted several regions offshore where Paula has dumped 5+ inches of rain. High wind shear due to strong upper-level winds of 30 knots out of the south are tearing Paula apart, and satellite imagery shows the storm has a lopsided appearance due to the shear, and the low-level center is almost exposed to view. Low level spiral banding is no longer as impressive, and the intensity of Paula's thunderstorms has waned significantly over the past few hours.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Pinar del Rio radar in Cuba at 8:30am EDT on October 14, 2010, showing the eye of Paula along the northwest coast of Cuba. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for Paula from the Key West radar.

Forecast for Paula
The models have come into better agreement on the future track of Paula, with the storm expected to move along the north coast of Cuba or just inland during the next three days. On this track, Paula will move over Cuba's capital, Havana, tonight and Friday morning, and bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches to the most populous region of the country. An extended period of time over mountainous Cuba will likely destroy a small storm like Paula within 48 hours, particularly since the storm will be under 30+ knots of wind shear. A path just off the coast will let Paula live a little longer, but not much longer. The models are pretty unanimous in showing that wind shear will pull Paula apart over the next two days regardless of whether or not the center stays over water. Tropical storm force winds extend out just 50 miles from Paula's center, so it is unlikely that the Florida Keys will experience sustained winds of 39+ mph. The 5am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Key West a 40% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds; these odds are 83% for Havana. Havana may receive some minor wind damage from Paula, but it currently appears that heavy rain will be the major threat from Paula. The hurricane could easily dump more than ten inches over mountainous regions of Cuba, creating flooding hazards.


Figure 3. True color satellite image of Paula taken by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 2:35pm EDT October 13, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting the formation of a tropical depression 5 - 6 days from now, in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. The storm is predicted to move west-northwest over Nicaragua and Honduras (the NOGAPS model forecast) or northwards towards the Cayman Islands and Jamaica (the GFS model forecast.) The GFS model has been pretty reliable in forecasting the genesis of new tropical depressions this year, and the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to.

In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Megi is nearing typhoon strength, and is predicted to intensify into a major typhoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Sunday night or Monday morning.

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Paula (LRandyB)
Hurricane Paula

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421. xcool
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 20:09 (GMT)
newwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww blog blog
Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
420. Seastep
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 20:01 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:


As expected. It's going to be a cold winter in the polar regions.


Yep. UK is supposed to get snow next week.
Member Since: 9.09.2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3412
419. Bordonaro
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:58 (GMT)
EXCUSE ME :O) NEW BLOG, NEW BLOG :O)
Member Since: 25.08.2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
418. kmanislander
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:58 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:


That could be possible. Decoupling is certainly very common in this situation, and I doubt the center is vertically stacked anymore.

We do have an ESE wind report (albeit 2 hours old) out of Bahia Honda, Cuba, southwest of where the radar center appears to be.



And a SW wind at Grand Cayman which is surprising given the small surface wind field if the center is just on the North Coast.

Anyway we get to see whether it shoots the straits or heads my way. LOL
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
416. TallyMike
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:58 (GMT)
Quoting KBgetoutthegrill:

Pocket Rocket? You've got to be as old as me to use that reference.

I think he means the former hockey player Rocket Richard(sp)
Member Since: 13.07.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 70
415. Inactivity
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:58 (GMT)
I would say Paula at 45-50 mph at 5pm...maybe 60mph...
Member Since: 23.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 264
414. Levi32
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:58 (GMT)
Quoting CycloneUK:
Arctic sea ice is recovering fast Link

target="_blank">Link




Antarctic ice going haywire:







As expected. It's going to be a cold winter in the polar regions.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
412. 47n91w
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:56 (GMT)
Quoting Bordonaro:

OOPS! Bordonaro is wrong. It is the mid-level center :o)


Which answers half of my question, thanks Bordonaro! Anyone able to clarify what the cut-off height between low level and mid level is? Are we talking 10,000 feet? Higher? Lower?
Member Since: 13.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
411. Levi32
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:56 (GMT)
Quoting kmanislander:


So, as I was saying what we see on the radar is removed from the surface low and of no help in determining where the surface center is.

In summary, I suspect more of the center is onshore than indicated by the stated coordinates.


That could be possible. Decoupling is certainly very common in this situation, and I doubt the center is vertically stacked anymore.

We do have an ESE wind report (albeit 2 hours old) out of Bahia Honda, Cuba, southwest of where the radar center appears to be.

Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
410. CycloneUK
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:55 (GMT)
Arctic sea ice is recovering fast Link

target="_blank">Link




Antarctic ice going haywire:





Member Since: 5.03.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
408. Bordonaro
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:54 (GMT)
Quoting aspectre:
TropicalStormPaula made landfall near PuertoEsperanza,Cuba

TS.Paula's heading had turned eastward to dueEast
from its previous heading of (7.3degrees east of) EastNorthEast
TS.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had increased to ~12.7mph(~km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~8.7mph(~13.9km/h)

Category2
13Oct 06pmGMT - - 21.5n85.7w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - - 989mb -- NHC.Adv.#9A
Category1
13Oct 09pmGMT - - 21.7n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
14Oct 12amGMT - - 21.8n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10A
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11A
14Oct 09amGMT - - 22.3n84.9w - - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
14Oct 12pmGMT - - 22.7n84.5w - - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12A
TropicalStorm
14Oct 03pmGMT - - 22.8n84.1w - - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#13
14Oct 06pmGMT - - 22.8n83.5w - - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#13A

Copy &paste 21.5n85.7w, 21.7n85.6w, 21.8n85.6w, 21.9n85.4w, 22.2n85.2w-22.3n84.9w, 22.3n84.9w-22.7n84.5w, 22.7n84.5w-22.8n84.1w, 22.8n84.1w-22.8n83.5w, cun, cat, 22.8n83.5w- into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~16hours from now to reentry into the Atlantic near DosAmigos, Cuba
Though given it's rate of recurvature, TS.Paula is more likely to reenter the Caribbean north of Isla de Juventad shortly after the next NHC.Advisory, #14


^ The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Member Since: 25.08.2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
407. atmoaggie
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:53 (GMT)
Might be tough to classify a center via radar soon:



Nevermind...that loop needs updating...
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
404. aspectre
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:52 (GMT)
TropicalStormPaula made landfall near PuertoEsperanza,Cuba

TS.Paula's heading had turned eastward to dueEast
from its previous heading of (7.3degrees east of) EastNorthEast
TS.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had increased to ~12.7mph(~20.4km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~8.7mph(~13.9km/h)

Category2
13Oct 06pmGMT - - 21.5n85.7w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - - 989mb -- NHC.Adv.#9A
Category1
13Oct 09pmGMT - - 21.7n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
14Oct 12amGMT - - 21.8n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10A
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11A
14Oct 09amGMT - - 22.3n84.9w - - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
14Oct 12pmGMT - - 22.7n84.5w - - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12A
TropicalStorm
14Oct 03pmGMT - - 22.8n84.1w - - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#13
14Oct 06pmGMT - - 22.8n83.5w - - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#13A

Copy &paste 21.5n85.7w, 21.7n85.6w, 21.8n85.6w, 21.9n85.4w, 22.2n85.2w-22.3n84.9w, 22.3n84.9w-22.7n84.5w, 22.7n84.5w-22.8n84.1w, 22.8n84.1w-22.8n83.5w, cun, mia, nbw, 22.8n83.5w-22.8n79.86w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~16hours from now to reentry into the Atlantic near DosAmigos,Cuba
Though given it's rate of recurvature, TS.Paula is more likely to reenter the Caribbean
north of Isla de Juventad tonight after 09pmGMT but before 12amGMT

^ The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
403. Seastep
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:51 (GMT)
Quoting kmanislander:


For $1600.00 and a chance to advance to the next round, how do you expalin the ASCAT pass ?


It's from 11am this morning when the center was at 22.8N 84.1W. It's just the overall circulation.

From the 11am discussion:

THE CENTER OF PAULA IS STILL UNDER THE
CONVECTION AND CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON LA BAJADA RADAR LOCATED IN
WESTERN CUBA.
Member Since: 9.09.2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3412
402. Bordonaro
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:51 (GMT)
Quoting kmanislander:


So, as I was saying what we see on the radar is removed from the surface low and of no help in determining where the surface center is.

In summary, I suspect more of the center is onshore than indicated by the stated coordinates.

Yes.
Member Since: 25.08.2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
401. kwgirl
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:51 (GMT)
Quoting Bordonaro:


Snipet from WU Jeopardy, with your host, Dr Jeff Masters (applause)

Question: Is the radar "seeing" the surface low or the mid level rotation which would appear to have decoupled from the surface low ?

Answer: What is the Surface Low. Correct for $1200.

May I have "Pesky, Paula Puns" for $1400, please?
Please prepare for Paula's pesky precipitation. I know it is not a pun, but couldn't think of anything but alliteration:)
Member Since: 28.03.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
400. Levi32
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:51 (GMT)
Quoting kmanislander:


Yeah, I saw the time of the pass but even then the discrepancy between the given coordinates and the pass seem fundamentally different.

The HH would not fly over terrain so one is left to wonder to what extent they truly sampled the center of this now disjointed system.


The direction of the winds found during this pass don't really seem to leave much room for a "real" center location farther south though.

Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
399. kmanislander
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:50 (GMT)
Quoting Bordonaro:

OOPS! Bordonaro is wrong. It is the mid-level center :o)


So, as I was saying what we see on the radar is removed from the surface low and of no help in determining where the surface center is.

In summary, I suspect more of the center is onshore than indicated by the stated coordinates.
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
398. JRRP
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:50 (GMT)
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5081
397. PSLFLCaneVet
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:50 (GMT)
Quoting oracle28:


The other models have finally caught on to the XTRP model, resulting in good model consensus, and high confidence in the forecast of a linear ENE path.



That's funny right there, I don't care who ya are. LOL
Member Since: 23.07.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
396. Jax82
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:49 (GMT)
Quoting Grothar:


Paula looks more like a comet than a hurricane!
Member Since: 2.09.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
395. Bordonaro
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:49 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:


An extremely active Hurricane Season this year!!!
Very :O)
Member Since: 25.08.2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
394. kmanislander
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:49 (GMT)
Quoting stillwaiting:
,atleast 22hrs old,no???


No, that pass was from approx. 1400 UTC this morning
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
393. reedzone
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:48 (GMT)
Quoting CycloneUK:




An extremely active Hurricane Season this year!!!
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
392. PSLFLCaneVet
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:48 (GMT)
Quoting Grothar:


Noise must have been deafening.


I've got you all beat. Bonnie broke my 10x10 pop-up canopy's frame. Heart-rending, but not enough of a loss for a claim, dollar-wise. Had to perform major reconstructive surgery.

How are ya, Old-timer?
Member Since: 23.07.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
391. stillwaiting
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:48 (GMT)
neve mind mis understood
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
389. kmanislander
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:47 (GMT)
Quoting Bordonaro:


Answer: A microwave satellite feature than detects wind speeds at the surface and depicts the information as a surface map.

Correct for $1600.00 (applause). Bordonaro is in the lead with $2800.00.


Clever !. A literal answer that skirts the intent of the question LOL
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
388. Bordonaro
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:47 (GMT)
Quoting 47n91w:


This ties into something I've wondered for awhile. The lowest tilt of the Key West radar is between 13,000 and 15,000 feet above ground level in the vicinity of where Paula's COC seems to be visible. In a tropical system, what heights distinguish one level (i.e. low level) from another (i.e. mid level)? Is the radar at 15,000 feet showing low level rotation or mid level?

OOPS! Bordonaro is wrong. It is the mid-level center :o)
Member Since: 25.08.2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
386. Levi32
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:47 (GMT)
Vortex message is extrapolated at 1003mb and shows a dry but very ill-defined core now, which is to be expected in a tropical storm this weak. However, convection continues to fire strongly in the northeast quad, and the pressure has fallen from the 1007mb measured earlier. This is Paula taking advantage of some of the baroclinic energy to stay on her feet, which is what I was mentioning yesterday about why this doesn't necessarily have to dissipate due to shear and lack of outflow, as long as it doesn't tangle too much with Cuba.

000
URNT12 KNHC 141929
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182010
A. 14/19:08:10Z
B. 22 deg 56 min N
083 deg 08 min W
C. 700 mb 3095 m
D. 39 kt
E. 276 deg 24 nm
F. 341 deg 30 kt
G. 276 deg 25 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 10 C / 3037 m
J. 11 C / 3047 m
K. 3 C / NA

L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 0718A PAULA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 30 KT W QUAD 19:01:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 48 KT NE QUAD 19:25:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MODERATE TURBULENCE OUTBOUND NE
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
385. kmanislander
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:46 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:


Look at the floater and notice that the surface circulation is elongated to the south, which is typical of this kind of situation. This could account for the appearance on the pass, but the actual center position is inconclusive due to the land in the way. That was also at 10am EDT this morning.


Yeah, I saw the time of the pass but even then the discrepancy between the given coordinates and the pass seem fundamentally different.

The HH would not fly over terrain so one is left to wonder to what extent they truly sampled the center of this now disjointed system.
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
384. gordydunnot
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:45 (GMT)
Maybe since we have the photo already we can call him tricky Dick.
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
383. Bordonaro
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:45 (GMT)
Quoting kmanislander:


For $1600.00 and a chance to advance to the next round, how do you expalin the ASCAT pass ?


Answer: A microwave satellite feature than detects wind speeds at the surface and depicts the information as a surface map.

Correct for $1600.00 (applause). Bordonaro is in the lead with $2800.00.
Member Since: 25.08.2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
382. CycloneUK
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:45 (GMT)


Member Since: 5.03.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
380. 47n91w
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:43 (GMT)
Quoting Bordonaro:

Surface Low. Correct for $1200.

May I have "Pesky, Paula Puns" for $1400, please?


This ties into something I've wondered for awhile. The lowest tilt of the Key West radar is between 13,000 and 15,000 feet above ground level in the vicinity of where Paula's COC seems to be visible. In a tropical system, what heights distinguish one level (i.e. low level) from another (i.e. mid level)? Is the radar at 15,000 feet showing low level rotation or mid level?
Member Since: 13.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
379. kmanislander
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:43 (GMT)
Quoting gordydunnot:
Hope we get to call him little Richard as the alternative of big Dick doesn't sound to good.


And if he's a small storm ?
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
378. newportrinative
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:43 (GMT)
Quoting Bordonaro:

I know we're all joking about Bonnie, however Richard really concerns me!!!


Why worry about something that hasn't even happened yet? I see people getting excited over models that don't pan out.
I get worried when we're 1 or 2 days out and I'm in the middle of the cone. Otherwise, I'm just watchin'
Member Since: 20.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 205
377. Levi32
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:43 (GMT)
Quoting kmanislander:


How do you explain the pass then ?. It seems to show the center more on the South than the N coast


Look at the floater and notice that the surface circulation is elongated to the south, which is typical of this kind of situation. This could possibly account for the appearance on the ASCAT pass, but the actual center position is inconclusive due to the land in the way. That was also at 10am EDT this morning.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
374. gordydunnot
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:42 (GMT)
Hope we get to call him little Richard as the alternative of big Dick doesn't sound to good.
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
373. TampaTom
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:42 (GMT)
Quoting Bordonaro:

I know we're all joking about Bonnie, however Richard really concerns me!!!


I'm with you...

Member Since: 20.06.2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1050
372. kmanislander
14. lokakuuta 2010 klo 19:41 (GMT)
Quoting Bordonaro:

Surface Low. Correct for $1200.

May I have "Pesky, Paula Puns" for $1400, please?


For $1600.00 and a chance to advance to the next round, how do you expalin the ASCAT pass ?
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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