Western Caribbean disturbance 98L a threat to develop; Otto weakening
An area of disturbed weather (98L) is in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of the coast of Nicaragua. The disturbance has a modest and slowly increasing amount of intense thunderstorms, and is showing some spin. The disturbance is drifting northwest at less than 5 mph, and is under a moderate 15 knots of wind shear. Dry air in the Western Caribbean has been interfering with development, but 98L is now generating enough thunderstorms that the environment in the Western Caribbean is moistening, which will support further development. Pressures at Colombia's San Andres Island near the center of 98L are not falling, and satellite imagery show disturbed weather only over a very modest portion of the Caribbean, so any development today will be slow to occur.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 98L.
Forecast for 98L
98L is likely to bring heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua on Sunday, and possibly the Cayman Islands and Jamaica as well. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, through Tuesday. This should allow 98L to reach tropical depression status early next week, though NHC is only calling for a 20% chance of 98L becoming a tropical depression by Monday morning. The GFDL and HWRF models are the most aggressive developing 98L. These models predict 98L will intensify into Tropical Storm Paula by Monday, move northwest and then north, and pass through the Cayman Islands on Monday night and Tuesday morning as a tropical storm. Paula would then hit western or central Cuba as a hurricane on Tuesday or Wednesday, brush the Florida Keys, then accelerate northeastward through the western Bahamas on Wednesday or Thursday. This is probably too aggressive of a forecast, given 98L's current small size and lack of organization. The UKMET model also develops 98L, but keeps the storm in the Western Caribbean over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model keeps 98L weak and predicts a more west-northwesterly motion into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF models do not develop 98L. One argument against the development of 98L would be that the phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is currently promoting sinking, stable air over the Western Caribbean, which tends to make the atmosphere dryer and more stable. However, I think that 98L will spend enough time in the Western Caribbean to overcome the relatively stable, dry air, and become a tropical depression or tropical storm by Tuesday. The likelihood of the storm hitting Cuba versus moving more to the west-northwest and hitting Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is difficult to call at this point.
Otto weakening, pulling away from the the islands
The deluge has finally ended for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands from Hurricane Otto. This is welcome news in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, where Otto and its precursor storminess dumped 15.25" of rain over the past eight days. On average, St.Thomas expects to receive just 1.44" of rain during the first eight days of October. Satellite imagery shows that Otto is beginning to suffer the ill-effects of high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. The cloud pattern has become distorted and non-symmetric, with the clouds on the southwest side of the storm being eaten away by the strong upper-level winds from the southwest creating the shear. Otto will continue to deteriorate due to increasing wind shear until the storm transitions into an extratropical storm on Monday.
Figure 2. Satellite image of Otto taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on their Terra satellite at 11:05 am EDT October 8, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
A challenge to the validity of the world extreme heat record of 136.4°F (58°C) at Al Aziza, Libya
One of the "sacred cows" of world weather extremes has been the widely reported "hottest temperature ever recorded on earth", a reading of 58°C (136.4°F) reported from Al Azizia, Libya on Sept. 13, 1922. In a remarkable piece of research, our featured Weather Extremes blogger Christopher C. Burt concludes: the temperature observations at Al Azizia prior to 1927 (when the site and instruments were changed) are obviously invalid. The shelter housing the thermometer was most likely over exposed and measuring heat radiating of off the black-tarred concrete of the terrace on which it was placed.
Has Mr. Burt slain one of meteorology's most sacred cows? You be the judge. Check out the full story at his blog.
I'll have an update Sunday by 2pm EDT.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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If you dont know why the users here already know the prepared names, Wiki up "2010 atlantic hurricane season"
and you'll find a list of names there
The bone-chilling scream split the warm autumn night in two, the first half being before the scream when it was fairly balmy and calm and pleasant for those who hadn't heard the scream at all, but not calm or balmy or even very nice for those who did hear the scream, discounting the little period of time during the actual scream itself when your ears might have been hearing it but your brain wasn't reacting yet to let you know.
in that latest shot it looks like the deep convection to the northeast of 98L has began to pull south. If that trend continues it could help 98L to form as she pulls it in and spins it back around to the northwest quad.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html
also notice the dry air being cut into in the very northwest corner of the floater image. outflow looks like it is beginning to moisten the air in front of her to the northwest.
I read that wrong the first time.
:)
Glad I went back to reread.
Yep your right. Here is another link it appears moisture is indeed starting to feed northbound into the dry air pocket and the moisture feeding in from Mexico is also continuing to flow into the central GOM.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html
Link
are you saying its going to stall and hit mexico or stall and hit cuba,florida?
it's also real humid outside now here in mobile. not august humid but very warm and more like early to mid sept.. some of this moisture may move south out of here into the GOM as well, and I think the loop shows that progression as well.
i think the focus point of that camera was sliding around so it suggests an exaggerated western movement by misdirection of the eye (the human eye, not the storm's eye..,.lol). but yeah look at that last frame of that. it looks very stacked in its core.
it also looks like the loop suggests consolidation of storms into the center. it definitely appears to have the vacuum hose on in the middle as it all is pulling together and stacking up.
Look in the Zoom in inset of the blogosphere in the NE corner (scroll straight down)
Must need a break!
i just saw a gator run back a kick for a touchdown to pull within a touchdown of the bayou bengals. lol
See ya, tk/bf.
)
There ya go, bflol.
Later.
Link
To see the homemade Video from a camera attached to a weather balloon that rose into the
upper stratosphere and recorded the blackness of space.
Link
Dry air looks to be slowly on the way out.
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 09 2010
...OTTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 48.7W
ABOUT 935 MI...1510 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1245 MI...2000 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
Viewing: 651 - 701
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