Western Caribbean disturbance 98L a threat to develop; Otto weakening
An area of disturbed weather (98L) is in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of the coast of Nicaragua. The disturbance has a modest and slowly increasing amount of intense thunderstorms, and is showing some spin. The disturbance is drifting northwest at less than 5 mph, and is under a moderate 15 knots of wind shear. Dry air in the Western Caribbean has been interfering with development, but 98L is now generating enough thunderstorms that the environment in the Western Caribbean is moistening, which will support further development. Pressures at Colombia's San Andres Island near the center of 98L are not falling, and satellite imagery show disturbed weather only over a very modest portion of the Caribbean, so any development today will be slow to occur.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 98L.
Forecast for 98L
98L is likely to bring heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua on Sunday, and possibly the Cayman Islands and Jamaica as well. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, through Tuesday. This should allow 98L to reach tropical depression status early next week, though NHC is only calling for a 20% chance of 98L becoming a tropical depression by Monday morning. The GFDL and HWRF models are the most aggressive developing 98L. These models predict 98L will intensify into Tropical Storm Paula by Monday, move northwest and then north, and pass through the Cayman Islands on Monday night and Tuesday morning as a tropical storm. Paula would then hit western or central Cuba as a hurricane on Tuesday or Wednesday, brush the Florida Keys, then accelerate northeastward through the western Bahamas on Wednesday or Thursday. This is probably too aggressive of a forecast, given 98L's current small size and lack of organization. The UKMET model also develops 98L, but keeps the storm in the Western Caribbean over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model keeps 98L weak and predicts a more west-northwesterly motion into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF models do not develop 98L. One argument against the development of 98L would be that the phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is currently promoting sinking, stable air over the Western Caribbean, which tends to make the atmosphere dryer and more stable. However, I think that 98L will spend enough time in the Western Caribbean to overcome the relatively stable, dry air, and become a tropical depression or tropical storm by Tuesday. The likelihood of the storm hitting Cuba versus moving more to the west-northwest and hitting Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is difficult to call at this point.
Otto weakening, pulling away from the the islands
The deluge has finally ended for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands from Hurricane Otto. This is welcome news in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, where Otto and its precursor storminess dumped 15.25" of rain over the past eight days. On average, St.Thomas expects to receive just 1.44" of rain during the first eight days of October. Satellite imagery shows that Otto is beginning to suffer the ill-effects of high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. The cloud pattern has become distorted and non-symmetric, with the clouds on the southwest side of the storm being eaten away by the strong upper-level winds from the southwest creating the shear. Otto will continue to deteriorate due to increasing wind shear until the storm transitions into an extratropical storm on Monday.
Figure 2. Satellite image of Otto taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on their Terra satellite at 11:05 am EDT October 8, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
A challenge to the validity of the world extreme heat record of 136.4°F (58°C) at Al Aziza, Libya
One of the "sacred cows" of world weather extremes has been the widely reported "hottest temperature ever recorded on earth", a reading of 58°C (136.4°F) reported from Al Azizia, Libya on Sept. 13, 1922. In a remarkable piece of research, our featured Weather Extremes blogger Christopher C. Burt concludes: the temperature observations at Al Azizia prior to 1927 (when the site and instruments were changed) are obviously invalid. The shelter housing the thermometer was most likely over exposed and measuring heat radiating of off the black-tarred concrete of the terrace on which it was placed.
Has Mr. Burt slain one of meteorology's most sacred cows? You be the judge. Check out the full story at his blog.
I'll have an update Sunday by 2pm EDT.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Matthew had 60mph, no upgrade there.
Oh and Hermine had 65mph at landfall, no upgrade there either.
Link
I thought Hermine already had 65 mph.
Basically 360 miles south of Grand Cayman according to that!
where you see no upgrade from it had 65mph winds
AL, 98, 2010101000, 135N, 812W, 25, 1007
this could be the big one some people have been waiting for this year not me i hope it goes away and doesnt develop
nop they had upgrade it too 65 mph winds
if you guys are looking at this then for get it you will olny see the upgrades
Link
on this
Link
We sure don't want or need it here!!!
You're right about Matthew, it never had 60mph in the official advisories but Hermine...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 97.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
09Oct 12amGMT - - 27.2n61.7w - - 75knots - - 972mb -- NHC-ATCF
09Oct 03amGMT - - 27.8n60.8w - - 85mph - . - 972mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
09Oct 06amGMT - - 28.5n59.7w - - 75knots - - 977mb -- NHC-ATCF
09Oct 09amGMT - - 29.2n58.5w - - 85mph - . - 977mb -- NHC.Adv.#13
09Oct 12pmGMT - - 30.1n57.1w - - 65knots - - 984mb -- NHC-ATCF
09Oct 03pmGMT - - 30.7n55.7w - - 75mph - . - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#14
09Oct 06pmGMT - - 31.7n54.0w - - 65knots - - 984mb -- NHC-ATCF
09Oct 09pmGMT - - 32.4n52.6w - - 75mph - . - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#15
TropicalStormOtto
10Oct 12amGMT - - 33.1n50.4w - - 60knots - - 988mb -- NHC-ATCF
60knots=~69mph=~111.1km/h
65knots=~74.8mph=~120.4km/h __ 75mph =~120.7k/h __ 70knots=~80.6mph=~129.6km/h
80mph=~128.7km/h __ 75knots=~86.3mph=138.9km/h __ 85mph=136.8km/h
MaximumSustainedWind speeds are rounded to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots
Copy&paste 27.2n61.7w, 27.8n60.8w, 28.5n59.7w, 29.2n58.5w, 30.1n57.1w-30.7n55.7w, 30.7n55.7w-31.7n54.0w, 31.7n54.0w-32.4n52.6w, 32.4n52.6w-33.1n50.4w, bda, hor into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours
jeez it is coming down so hard that it is stinging skin? i wouldn't doubt it.
ok
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
straight into the western hebert
I will never forget what my brother -in law said to me the evening he rescued us during Ivan 04, I said, Have you ever seen anything like this, he said yes Hurricane Donna, he lived in Florida keys, Marathon if i remember correctly at that time!
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
700 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...HERMINE STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE COAST...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 97.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
yup they may even upgrade it even more at post season
I'm thinking 70mph.
am thinking more like 75mph
ok
Models don't have a handle on this system yet though.
nope
No, I don't remember mentioning anything about the temperature dropping after Wilma, which it did. The question was what turned Wilma to the NE. It was a trough, not a front.
From Wiki:
Wilma continued to slowly drift towards the north over the Yucatán peninsula, although it weakened to a moderate hurricane while over land, it reemerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico on October 23 around 0000 UTC. Despite Wilma spending 24 hours over land it reemerged completely intact and began to re-intensify shortly after. This was perhaps due to its large size and because the majority of its circulation remained over the warm waters of the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. A powerful trough turned the hurricane to the northeast and accelerated its forward motion. Its large eye remained well-organized, and Wilma intensified despite increasing amounts of wind shear, briefly producing winds of 125 mph (200 km/h) before hitting Cape Romano, Florida as a 120 mph (195 km/h) major hurricane (although maximum sustained winds at the Florida landfall, according to some sources, might have been stronger)[3]
i told ya last night stationary then lift n and slighly w of north till west cuba isle of youth then nne ene after that across cuba off se fla over bahamas it goes
Agreed and agreed. :]
That sounds correct.
98L looking very interesting this evening. The only problem that will limit 98L strengthening will be the very stable air over the GOM and NW Caribbean.
Alex - 105 mph to 110 mph
Julia - 135 mph to 140 mph
Matthew - 50 mph to 60 mph
Thats all we've updated as of now. However, we're pretty sure we'll have a lot others to update come December when all the TCR's SHOULD be out.
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