97L a heavy rain threat to the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 14:51 (GMT)

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A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L), centered about 200 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west to west-northwest at about 10 mph and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands today through Tuesday. These showers can be seen on Martinique radar this morning, and have increased considerably since yesterday, thanks to the presence of an upper level trough of low pressure making the atmosphere more unstable. This same trough is also bringing high wind shear of 20 -25 knots, though, so development of 97L is not expected today. Recent satellite imagery shows a large area of intense thunderstorms associated with 97L, but the activity is not well organized. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Monday through Thursday. The ECMWF model continues to be the only model showing significant development 97L in the next seven days. The model predicts 97L will be near Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday, with the storm developing into a tropical depression on Thursday just north of Haiti, then moving northwards through the Turks and Caicos Islands and out to sea on Thursday. NHC is giving 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, and has not tasked the Hurricane Hunters to fly into the storm over the next two days. 97L will move at about 10 mph through the islands today through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. These rains may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic beginning on Monday, and for Haiti beginning on Tuesday. Flash flood watches are posted for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Flood waters receding in northeastern North Carolina
Flood waters are receding in northeastern North Carolina, where the Cashie River in Windsor caused major flooding that put many homes under five feet of water. North Carolina was deluged by more than twenty inches of rain in some regions over the past week, due to tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Tropical Storm Nicole. Representatives from Portlight.org are surveying the hardest-hit areas of North Carolina to begin identifying needs in the wake of the flooding. Portlight expects to perform the first deployment of their new relief trailer within the next few days and send a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies. You can follow their progress via the Portlight.org blog.

Our new Weather Extreme blogger, Christopher C. Burt, has posted a comparison of the maximum rainfall totals in each state affected by Hurricane Floyd of 1999, and this weeks extreme rainfall event, which he dubs "Super-Rainstorm Nicole." The two storms were very similar in the amount of rain they dumped, and we are very fortunate that moderate drought conditions preceded the arrival of this week's storm, or else billions in damage would have resulted.


Figure 2. Rainfall for the 7-day period ending at 8am EDT this morning shows the remarkable accumulations that fell in association with the tropical moisture ahead of Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: NOAA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather near 9N, 44W is fairly close to having a closed circulation, as seen on a 8:04am EDT pass by the ASCAT satellite. However, satellite imagery shows only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, and there is plenty of dry air in the vicinity that is interfering with development. The disturbance is headed to the northwest, and the computer models predict the disturbance will not affect any land areas for at least the next seven days. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Saving a few... (Portlight)
items by placing them on the roof. Vanceboro, NC
Saving a few...

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538. Neapolitan
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:47 (GMT)
Quoting pottery:
Just looked at 'catatumbo L' ... Fascinating!
Occurs at Lake Maracaibo, which is a long way west of me, so I doubt I could see that.
West of me is the Orinoco Delta, which is a vast area of swamp and submerged forest, particularly at this time of year when the Orinoco is in full flow.
The Orinoco affects the water salinity here big-time, as far north as the north point of Tobago, where 'islands' of floating water-plants and all kinds of stuff are floating by...


Yeah, that's quite a ways from Trinidad. I've been in Panama several times recently, and I've seen it once from just east of PC. Fascinating indeed...
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13266
537. gwadaman
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:44 (GMT)
Good Morning All, excellent light show last night, accompanied by heavy rains and thunder.

Current Conditions in Barbados

Updated: 35 min 33 sec ago
All Business closed until Noon, Schools closed

Monday
Thunderstorm. High: 30 °C . Wind SSE 36 km/h . 70% chance of precipitation (water equivalent of 15.64 mm). Heat Index: 36 °C .
Flood Warning posted.

Mostly Cloudy
29 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 74%
Dew Point: 24 °C
Wind: 32 km/h / 8.7 m/s from the SSE
Pressure: 1011 hPa (Steady)
Heat Index: 34 °C
Visibility: 9.0 kilometers
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 304 m
Scattered Clouds 426 m
Mostly Cloudy 3048 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 56 m
Member Since: 8.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
536. pottery
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:42 (GMT)
Just looked at 'catatumbo L' ... Fascinating!
Occurs at Lake Maracaibo, which is a long way west of me, so I doubt I could see that.
West of me is the Orinoco Delta, which is a vast area of swamp and submerged forest, particularly at this time of year when the Orinoco is in full flow.
The Orinoco affects the water salinity here big-time, as far north as the north point of Tobago, where 'islands' of floating water-plants and all kinds of stuff are floating by...
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
534. Neapolitan
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:36 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13266
532. JRRP
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:35 (GMT)
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5078
531. Neapolitan
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:29 (GMT)
Quoting pottery (#529):
I am in Trinidad. 11n 61w.
What is 'catatumbo' lightening??


Catatumbo lightning
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13266
530. BobinTampa
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:29 (GMT)
Quoting pottery:
I am in Trinidad. 11n 61w.
What is 'catatumbo' lightening??


"The "Relámpago del Catatumbo" (Catatumbo lightning) is a phenomenon that occurs over the marshlands at the Maracaibo mouth of the river, where lightning storms occur for about 10 hours a night, 140 to 160 nights a year, for a total of about 1.2 million lightning discharges per year. The light from this storm activity can be seen up to 400 km away and has been used for ship navigation; it is also known as the "Maracaibo Beacon" for this reason.[1]"

from wiki
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 526
529. pottery
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:27 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:


I'm not sure exactly where you live, so I have to ask: was that Catatumbo lightning?
I am in Trinidad. 11n 61w.
What is 'catatumbo' lightening??
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
527. Neapolitan
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:25 (GMT)
Quoting pottery (#525):
Good Morning
An Incredible light-show last evening over the Venezuelan Andes, seen from my house.
Several hours of continuous lightening that migrated south and brought 1" of rain here in heavy showers after midnight with Rumbles and Flashes south of me.


I'm not sure exactly where you live, so I have to ask: was that Catatumbo lightning?
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13266
526. Neapolitan
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:23 (GMT)
Quoting IKE (#488):
GOM water temps....



Cooler than they were back in August, for sure...but 26.C is the nominal temp required to sustain cyclogenesis, so virtually the entire GOM is still warm enough for activity (those little purple pockets of sub-26 aren't big enough to matter). Yes, I know it takes more than warm water to make a hurricane...but cold water can kill one, and that water's not cold. Yet.
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13266
525. pottery
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:22 (GMT)
Good Morning
An Incredible light-show last evening over the Venezuelan Andes, seen from my house.
Several hours of continuous lightening that migrated south and brought 1" of rain here in heavy showers after midnight with Rumbles and Flashes south of me.
Flood warnings in Barbados and Trinidad for today (have not checked Grenada).
Trinidad conditions now-
Cloudy
temp 75F
Humid 100%
press 1011 rising
wind calm.
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
523. islander101010
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:22 (GMT)
gfs it seems splits this system. the strongest part developing exiting north out to sea while the weaker part moves into the south western carib. probally pretty close
Member Since: 11.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4017
522. Grothar
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:21 (GMT)
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23710
521. BobinTampa
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:21 (GMT)
beautiful this morning. Makes you want to take a nap under a tree.

Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 526
520. Grothar
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:20 (GMT)
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23710
519. ackee
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:20 (GMT)
SEE most of the reliable models are hinting possible low forming in the SW carrbbean , that might have better chance for tropical devlopment if LOW does form.
Member Since: 15.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1341
518. JRRP
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:20 (GMT)
.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5078
514. raggpr
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:16 (GMT)
Member Since: 11.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 245
512. Eagle101
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:15 (GMT)
Good Morning...52 at the coast and 47 inland at Panama City this morning...wow...quite a contrast to what we have been use to. Winds are from the north keeping the cool, dry air mass coming. Everyone take care.

v/r

Jon
Member Since: 7.01.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 40
510. stormwatcherCI
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:13 (GMT)
Earthquake in Cuba.


5.1
Date-Time

* Monday, October 04, 2010 at 11:48:34 UTC
* Monday, October 04, 2010 at 07:48:34 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 19.807°N, 75.416°W
Depth 26 km (16.2 miles)
Region CUBA REGION
Distances 45 km (25 miles) SSW of Guantanamo, Cuba
50 km (30 miles) ESE of Santiago de Cuba, Cuba
810 km (500 miles) ESE of HAVANA, Cuba
825 km (510 miles) SE of Miami, Florida
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
509. ackee
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:13 (GMT)
97L will just be big rain maker for ,the Greater Anttllies hopeful not jamaica. The sun is out today frist time in days
Member Since: 15.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1341
507. PELLSPROG
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:11 (GMT)
A big 10-4 good buddies !
Member Since: 4.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
506. weaverwxman
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:09 (GMT)
GM all finally gonna cool down in so fla 70.8 at my house DP about same felt cool anyway..
Member Since: 17.11.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 343
504. islander101010
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:04 (GMT)
surprised we did not get a decent cyclone over the oil spill area there were lots of posts early in the yr dreading what could happen. guess what oil is left is getting eaten by microorganisms
Member Since: 11.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4017
503. stormwatcherCI
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:03 (GMT)
Quoting 7544:
morning all looks like 98l may try to get started in the caribiean ?
Did you mean 97L ?
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
501. 7544
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 12:02 (GMT)
morning all looks like 98l may try to get started in the caribiean ?
Member Since: 6.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
500. Cotillion
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 11:55 (GMT)
Quoting aislinnpaps:
GOMEX water temps:

50 - 60 degrees Fahrenheit - look out for polar bears.

61 - 70 - Canadians and British folk only.

71 - 75 - southerners will start to wade in the water. Canadians, northerners & Brits will stay in all day.

76 - 80 - Nearly everyone will swim in these temperatures. 76 is a bit cool, but 80 is just about perfect for everyone.

81 - 86 - Perfect for a long refreshing swim. A quick dip will ward off overheating on a hot day.

86 - 91 - Very warm. Jump right in. Doesn't cool you off much.

92 and up - Like bath water.


Sounds about right.

70 degrees water for us is like bath water. By 90, I'd have to check if I wasn't wearing a lobster costume (lovely, warm waters though).

Never seen any polar bears near our waters. Swam/boarded near a seal, though.
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
499. severstorm
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 11:54 (GMT)
Morning everyone, 54.5 in wc fl
Member Since: 25.11.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 956
498. wunderkidcayman
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 11:50 (GMT)
what a interesting forecast by NHC
24

48

72
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9553
497. IKE
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 11:40 (GMT)
Quoting traumaboyy:


47.4 here....getting dry dry dry!!


Suns up now...48.6 my low.
.............................................


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
494. traumaboyy
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 11:37 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
Down to 49.6 at my location.


47.4 here....getting dry dry dry!!
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2263
491. aislinnpaps
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 11:19 (GMT)
GOMEX water temps:

50 - 60 degrees Fahrenheit - look out for polar bears.

61 - 70 - Canadians and British folk only.

71 - 75 - southerners will start to wade in the water. Canadians, northerners & Brits will stay in all day.

76 - 80 - Nearly everyone will swim in these temperatures. 76 is a bit cool, but 80 is just about perfect for everyone.

81 - 86 - Perfect for a long refreshing swim. A quick dip will ward off overheating on a hot day.

86 - 91 - Very warm. Jump right in. Doesn't cool you off much.

92 and up - Like bath water.
Member Since: 22.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3112
490. IKE
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 11:19 (GMT)
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Hopefully the water will cool down soon and not be conducive to anything that might want to spin up. I think it is a little cooler than it was? Can't remember.


It's cooling off here. I noticed Pensacola Beach down to 75.7 this morning.

Dew points down to 41 in Destin,FL...air is dry.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
489. aislinnpaps
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 11:15 (GMT)
Hopefully the water will cool down soon and not be conducive to anything that might want to spin up. I think it is a little cooler than it was? Can't remember.
Member Since: 22.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3112
488. IKE
4. lokakuuta 2010 klo 11:13 (GMT)
GOM water temps....

Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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