Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

97L to spread heavy rains in Lesser Antilles; major flooding in North Carolina
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:42 (GMT) +3
A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L), centered about 400 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Sunday. These showers can be seen approaching the islands on Martinique radar this morning. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 97L, and the waters beneath are very warm, 29°C, but recent satellite imagery shows that 97L's heavy thunderstorms are limited and not well organized. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 5:51am EDT showed a moderate wind shift associated with 97L, but nothing close to a closed circulation. Top winds were around 30 - 35 mph. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, today through Monday, then decline. The ECMWF model is the only model currently showing significant development 97L in the next seven days. The model predicts 97L will be near Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday, with the storm developing into a tropical depression on Wednesday just north of Haiti, then moving northwards through the Turks and Caicos Islands and out to sea on Thursday. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, and has not tasked the Hurricane Hunters to fly into the storm over the next two days. 97L will move at about 10 mph through the islands on Sunday through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. Even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression, its slow motion may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba as it moves past.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Major flooding in northeastern North Carolina
Major flooding continues in northeastern North Carolina, where the Cashie River in Windsor is 5.4 feet over flood stage. North Carolina has been deluged by more than twenty inches of rain in some regions over the past week, due to tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Tropical Storm Nicole. Wilmington, NC set records this week for the heaviest 3-day, 4-day, and 5-day rainfall events in city history, and the month of September ended up as the second rainiest month ever recorded in the city. A remarkable 22.54" of rain fell on Wilmington during the 5-day period Sunday through Thursday. The previous record was 19.06", set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, with just 0.18" of rain falling during the first 25 days of September. Representatives from Portlight.org are on their way to the hardest-hit areas of North Carolina to beginning identifying needs in the wake of the flooding. Portlight expects to perform the first deployment of their new relief trailer within the next few days and send a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies. You can follow their progress via the live webcam on the Portlight truck.

Our new Weather Extreme blogger, Christopher C. Burt, has posted a comparison of the maximum rainfall totals in each state affected by Hurricane Floyd of 1999, and this weeks extreme rainfall event, which he dubs "Super-Rainstorm Nicole." The two storms were very similar in the amount of rain they dumped, and we are very fortunate that moderate drought conditions preceded the arrival of this week's storm, or else billions in damage would have resulted.


Figure 2. Rainfall for the 7-day period ending at 8am EDT this morning shows the remarkable accumulations that fell in association with the tropical moisture ahead of Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: NOAA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Disturbed weather has diminished in the Central Caribbean, where the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole are no longer kicking up significant thunderstorm activity. Several of the models are predicting the formation of a tropical depression in the Mid-Atlantic 6 - 8 days from now, in a location that would not be of any danger to land areas.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters
Flooding Bristol Vermont (31337)
Flooding Bristol Vermont
Too Wet To Harvest Today (duck29)
Heavy rain and high winds for 2 days caused flash flooding in many areas of New York State
Too Wet To Harvest Today
Categories: Flood Hurricane
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Reader Comments
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401. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 03:35 (GMT)    
whew finally over 400 its only taken us 12 hrs to do it
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40670
402. PanhandleChuck 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 03:35 (GMT)    
Quoting LongIslandXpress38:


He told me James C. was a bit full of himself, but a good guy..


He does have a likable personality, but you can tell he thinks he is King
Member Since: 13.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
405. JLPR2 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 03:37 (GMT)    
I guess I have been looking at the radar too much since I'm seeing the blob to the west of the islands spinning...
Link

Where are my glasses? LOL!
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7491
407. LongIslandXpress38 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 03:41 (GMT)    
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


He does have a likable personality, but you can tell he thinks he is King


And his wife has Parkinson's disease. I saw him at the annual Parkinson's walk in NYC back in 2006; so despite his mildly inflated ego, he has a genuine heart..
Member Since: 4.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 166
408. WeatherfanPR 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 03:47 (GMT)    
Quoting JLPR2:
I guess I have been looking at the radar too much since I'm seeing the blob to the west of the islands spinning...
Link

Where are my glasses? LOL!


it's a broad circulation.
Member Since: 23.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1506
409. caneswatch 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 03:49 (GMT)    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
whew finally over 400 its only taken us 12 hrs to do it


That would take us an hour to get that done on average.
Member Since: 8.10.2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473
411. PELLSPROG 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 03:51 (GMT)    
It's all MOTHMANS FAULT !
Member Since: 4.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
413. gordydunnot 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 03:53 (GMT)    

17n 57w getting organized tonight.
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044
414. CaicosRetiredSailor 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 03:54 (GMT)    
Member Since: 12.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5141
415. JLPR2 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 03:59 (GMT)    
Quoting WeatherfanPR:


it's a broad circulation.


Ah thank you, I thought I was seeing things, so I guess I don't need my glasses after all. xD
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7491
416. caneswatch 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 04:00 (GMT)    
Quoting gordydunnot:
Well goodnight you'll just got back from watching the gator game. The gator in the back of that pickup truck looked like it fared better than the team.Maybe next year. Got one today, go canes.


Going to the game next weekend? We will have a Category 5 hitting Miami though ;)
Member Since: 8.10.2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473
417. 954FtLCane 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 04:07 (GMT)    
Quoting caneswatch:


Going to the game next weekend? We will have a Category 5 hit Miami though ;)

The GFS is now predicting the Hurricanes will be 11-1 before the ACC championship game... ugg you know those models though they can be o so wrong....lol... ok doing the cabbage patch for our win today!!! It's all about the U
Member Since: 30.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1464
418. xcool 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 04:07 (GMT)    
huh cat5 hit fl huh
Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503
420. jurakantaino 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 04:18 (GMT)    
Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah I noticed that and 97L is trying to make a comeback and it isn't even the peak of D-max.
This small slow moving storms could be bad news for Puerto Rico, we can't forget Loiza, in 1975, it was one of the worst disasters to hit PR since hurricane "San Felipe II, in 1928. more than 50 people died due to the floods and millions of dollars in damage, bridges collapsed, mudslides, etc.
Member Since: 31.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
421. CaribBoy 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 04:20 (GMT)    
According to the NAM ang the GFS an extended period of unsettled weather is in store for the E Caribbean Islands
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2856
422. caneswatch 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 04:26 (GMT)    
Quoting xcool:
huh cat5 hit fl huh


If you don't understand it, tell me.
Member Since: 8.10.2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473
423. caneswatch 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 04:27 (GMT)    
Quoting 954FtLCane:

The GFS is now predicting the Hurricanes will be 11-1 before the ACC championship game... ugg you know those models though they can be o so wrong....lol... ok doing the cabbage patch for our win today!!! It's all about the U


I think the GFS is right ;)
Member Since: 8.10.2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473
424. CaribBoy 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 04:32 (GMT)    
97L is exploding, very cold cloud tops right now
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2856
425. xcool 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 04:32 (GMT)    
lol
Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503
427. Relix 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 04:43 (GMT)    
Is it me or is pretty much everything kinda stationary?
Member Since: 3.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358
428. xcool 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 04:48 (GMT)    
hurricane season next years bad
Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503
429. JLPR2 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 05:03 (GMT)    
97L looks like a 20-30% to me


And guys, focus! XD It's still 2010 and this isn't over.
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7491
430. CaribBoy 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 05:06 (GMT)    
Things don't move much, that's true.
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2856
431. CaribBoy 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 05:07 (GMT)    
Good night everyone. Lol still waiting for the rain here in the N Leewards.
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2856
432. xcool 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 05:11 (GMT)    


not much. hurricane season over jk
Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503
433. JLPR2 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 05:23 (GMT)    
Where is the night crew?
Drunk?
XD LOL!
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7491
434. JLPR2 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 05:24 (GMT)    
97L coming into view here:
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7491
435. xcool 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 05:25 (GMT)    
im
Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503
436. JLPR2 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 05:32 (GMT)    
I'm down from this: to this:

That's good :]
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7491
437. xcool 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 05:43 (GMT)    


Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503
438. JLPR2 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 05:45 (GMT)    
2 10% circles, hmm... I was expecting a 20% for 97L XD

Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7491
439. JLPR2 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 05:46 (GMT)    
Quoting xcool:




The CMC went into Doom mode. XD
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7491
440. JLPR2 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 05:50 (GMT)    
EURO initialized with a 1008mb low to the SE of PR, probably the one the CMC went nuts with, the GFS doesn't have it.

Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7491
441. xcool 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 05:53 (GMT)    
hmm 2 10% wow
Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503
442. JLPR2 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 05:58 (GMT)    
97L has another area of deep convection a little further south, what is it up to? XD
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7491
443. Bordonaro 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 06:05 (GMT)    
I updated my blog on North Texas weather and the Tropical Atlantic, please take a look and leave your comments, thanks Link

I start writing daily articles next week for "The Examiner", an online newspaper, I will be writing for the "Arlington (TX) Weather Examiner". I will provide a link to WU, so we can have new people come and visit us.
Member Since: 25.08.2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
444. HadesGodWyvern 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 06:18 (GMT)    
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Tropical Disturbance Summary
06:00 AM UTC October 3 2010
====================================

An area of convection (92W) located at 11.5N 114.7E or 340 NM east northeast of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows an area of broad cyclonic turning with flaring and unorganized convection. Upper level analysis indicates the system is located equatorward to the ridge axis in an area of upper level divergence and moderate vertical wind shear. The system is also tracking westward towards land, which should decrease the probability for development.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 10-15 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1005 MB. Due to the close proximity to land and the unorganized convection, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is DOWNGRADED TO POOR
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36691
445. JLPR2 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 06:27 (GMT)    
Rather abrupt change in the 850mb vort, 97L is taking over, I think we might see 97L organizing further today.
850mb


I got to add, organize very slowly since it is not vertically stacked.
500mb
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7491
446. KoritheMan 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 06:47 (GMT)    
Quoting JLPR2:
Rather abrupt change in the 850mb vort, 97L is taking over, I think we might see 97L organizing further today.
850mb


I got to add, organize very slowly since it is not vertically stacked.
500mb


Impressive. You've learned a lot over time you've been on this site. Your time spent here certainly wasn't for naught. ;)
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15475
447. JLPR2 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 06:51 (GMT)    
Quoting KoritheMan:


Impressive. You've learned a lot over time you've been on this site. Your time spent here certainly wasn't for naught. ;)


LOL!
Something has to stay in my brain after 3 years. XD
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7491
448. JLPR2 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 06:56 (GMT)    
Well I'm off!
Night all, also, so far this is a no show in PR, we are dry. :]

Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7491
449. KoritheMan 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 07:42 (GMT)    
Quoting JLPR2:
Well I'm off!
Night all, also, so far this is a no show in PR, we are dry. :]



I've seen that happen a lot, actually. It's not that uncommon to have a busted forecast with regards to precipitation chances.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15475
451. CaribBoy 3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 08:19 (GMT)    
INVEST.25kts-1007mb-177N-581W
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2856

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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