97L to spread heavy rains in Lesser Antilles; major flooding in North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:42 (GMT)

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A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L), centered about 400 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Sunday. These showers can be seen approaching the islands on Martinique radar this morning. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 97L, and the waters beneath are very warm, 29°C, but recent satellite imagery shows that 97L's heavy thunderstorms are limited and not well organized. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 5:51am EDT showed a moderate wind shift associated with 97L, but nothing close to a closed circulation. Top winds were around 30 - 35 mph. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, today through Monday, then decline. The ECMWF model is the only model currently showing significant development 97L in the next seven days. The model predicts 97L will be near Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday, with the storm developing into a tropical depression on Wednesday just north of Haiti, then moving northwards through the Turks and Caicos Islands and out to sea on Thursday. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, and has not tasked the Hurricane Hunters to fly into the storm over the next two days. 97L will move at about 10 mph through the islands on Sunday through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. Even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression, its slow motion may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba as it moves past.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Major flooding in northeastern North Carolina
Major flooding continues in northeastern North Carolina, where the Cashie River in Windsor is 5.4 feet over flood stage. North Carolina has been deluged by more than twenty inches of rain in some regions over the past week, due to tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Tropical Storm Nicole. Wilmington, NC set records this week for the heaviest 3-day, 4-day, and 5-day rainfall events in city history, and the month of September ended up as the second rainiest month ever recorded in the city. A remarkable 22.54" of rain fell on Wilmington during the 5-day period Sunday through Thursday. The previous record was 19.06", set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, with just 0.18" of rain falling during the first 25 days of September. Representatives from Portlight.org are on their way to the hardest-hit areas of North Carolina to beginning identifying needs in the wake of the flooding. Portlight expects to perform the first deployment of their new relief trailer within the next few days and send a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies. You can follow their progress via the live webcam on the Portlight truck.

Our new Weather Extreme blogger, Christopher C. Burt, has posted a comparison of the maximum rainfall totals in each state affected by Hurricane Floyd of 1999, and this weeks extreme rainfall event, which he dubs "Super-Rainstorm Nicole." The two storms were very similar in the amount of rain they dumped, and we are very fortunate that moderate drought conditions preceded the arrival of this week's storm, or else billions in damage would have resulted.


Figure 2. Rainfall for the 7-day period ending at 8am EDT this morning shows the remarkable accumulations that fell in association with the tropical moisture ahead of Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: NOAA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Disturbed weather has diminished in the Central Caribbean, where the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole are no longer kicking up significant thunderstorm activity. Several of the models are predicting the formation of a tropical depression in the Mid-Atlantic 6 - 8 days from now, in a location that would not be of any danger to land areas.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

Flooding Bristol Vermont (31337)
Flooding Bristol Vermont
Too Wet To Harvest Today (duck29)
Heavy rain and high winds for 2 days caused flash flooding in many areas of New York State
Too Wet To Harvest Today

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
more like a winter blog with such low post numbers going on 6 hrs still not at 200

A few of our prolific bloggers are absent. That's part of it.
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
cloudy but no rain at Villa Fontana, Carolina, PR
On the contrary here in the North west of PR is raining hard and thunders everywhere, lucky you!!
Member Since: 31.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


I had mine at 200, I can walk away for hours on end and not fall behind. I imagine it'll pick up this evening.



Maybe. Sure didn't last night. I'm sure some are loving it - just not the ones that pay the bills. lol
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Against all odds both siblings are getting more spin as they approach the islands , the first one is already on top of the leewards.
Member Since: 31.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
Quoting CaptnDan142:


LOL! I had my comments set to show 100 per page to keep up. Guess I can lower that back down. They should make "6" an option. ;-)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
more like a winter blog with such low post numbers going on 6 hrs still not at 200


I had mine at 200, I can walk away for hours on end and not fall behind. I imagine it'll pick up this evening.

Member Since: 13.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1402
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
in both of those years, what was the final setup in October for us. Is there any way to match up the wind shear and trough set ups with this year?


1995:

Define "set up". If you are asking what the mean steering pattern was, then it should be noted that more storms moved equatorial (westward) during this period, a sharp contrast from the predominant recurvatures observed throughout August and September.

While I don't have any data on that period (since I don't know how to access it if such data exists, though I'm relatively certain it does), I would wager that this more westward propagation of storms was primarily due to an anomalous westward extension of the Bermuda High throughout the month. It is difficult to say this definitively though, as most of the observed storms during this period (Opal, Pablo, Roxanne, and Sebastien) either formed farther westward from tropical waves so that they effectively avoided recurvature, or they formed in the central/eastern Atlantic as low-latitude Cape Verde storms, but overall, I do believe that the high was stronger during October.

Since they stayed weaker, they tended to follow the low-level flow, thereby avoiding recurvature.

One storm, Noel, formed in September but persisted throughout the first week of October. Noel recurved harmlessly out to sea, but appears to be an outlier among the other observed storms during the month.

1999:

More or less the same, though there is a much smaller sample size during this year than in 1995, because only three storms were observed in October 1999: Irene, Jose, and Katrina.

All three of these storms impacted land, the first being Irene, which pummeled south Florida. Then there was Jose, which, though ultimately recurved, did not do so until it lashed the northern Leeward Islands.

Lastly, Katrina impacted Central America as a weak tropical storm. Katrina is not considered to be reflective of the overall upper air pattern for October 1999 though, because she was spawned off the western extent of a fronal zone, and thereby had no chance of recurvature.

All in all though, it appears that October 1999 had stronger troughing than was observed in October 1995.

In summary, it appears that in both those years, arbitrarily listed because both featured strong La Nina events (just like this year), the month of October featured a more westward propagation of storms compared to earlier in the season, which is noteworthy.

As far as vertical shear goes, in both the aforementioned years, it averaged well below average, and we can probably expect the same this year as well.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19109
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Wow, I thought yesterday was ssssssssssssssslllllllllllllooooooooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww
more like a winter blog with such low post numbers going on 6 hrs still not at 200
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52096
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Wow, I thought yesterday was ssssssssssssssslllllllllllllooooooooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww


LOL! I had my comments set to show 100 per page to keep up. Guess I can lower that back down. They should make "6" an option. ;-)
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Wow, I thought yesterday was ssssssssssssssslllllllllllllooooooooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww
Member Since: 13.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1402
cloudy but no rain at Villa Fontana, Carolina, PR
Member Since: 23.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1563
in both of those years, what was the final setup in October for us. Is there any way to match up the wind shear and trough set ups with this year?
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
When was the last time that we had a very active season as we are having right now, and the E. Pacific season ended early with a small amount of storms? Anything I can correlate that to?


1995 and 1999.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19109
When was the last time that we had a very active season as we are having right now, and the E. Pacific season ended early with a small amount of storms? Anything I can correlate that to?
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Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season may be overe for the E PAC looks like they may end up with olny 7 name storms


Agreed. I'm very surprised that this year has been more inactive than 1999.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19109
hurricane season may be overe for the E PAC looks like they may end up with olny 7 name storms
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Quoting asgolfr999:


Let me clear it up for you. Hurricane season falls between 2 specific dates. The second of those 2 dates is in your future not your past. Ergo, hurricane season is not over. Put your eenie meenie coin away now, you have your response.

:-)


Guess now you know, Amy. ;-)

The Atlantic hurricane season is officially from 1 June to 30 November. There is nothing magical in these dates, and hurricanes have occurred outside of these six months...


Link

Bottom line:
Per the calendar it isn't over.
As for storms, well, truth is, nobody actually "knows". Either side could be right.
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SJ is up re conning the area and has found a lotta folks under water..4-5 ft deep.

So there is a need for help in these area's and we have found some to focus on.,,already seems.

We will be posting some info in the portlight Blog when SJ gets done today, more likely tomorrow after SJ, Paul and I have a phone conference.

SJ will have some pics uploaded here later tonight maybe as well.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Its only October 2nd. You have no idea whether or not October's a bust or not.
..alot stated the begining if october as being quite active w/a forecast for another tc forming behind nicile which never hsppened,rather obvious that the first half will.not be as active as many experts forecast jist a week ago,including docmasters,no ones always right though this" busy beginning of oct w/a pattern favoring a tc landfalls in the se"...was a blown forecast biiiig time!!!!imo
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Quoting robert88:


Talking about the first 2 weeks for sure will be a bust. Link


I think they're right.
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Quoting NRAamy:
Eenie, meenie, miney, mo
Hurricane season is over

Hurricane season is not over



Let me clear it up for you. Hurricane season falls between 2 specific dates. The second of those 2 dates is in your future not your past. Ergo, hurricane season is not over. Put your eenie meenie coin away now, you have your response.

:-)
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So nice to see the fall weather set in...goodbye to the 2010 season
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Storm Junkie has entered the flood zone as seen on the Portlight Webcam here

Portlight Disaster Relief


We are headed up to eastern North Carolina right now to begin identifying communities that are a good fit for the Portlight mission. Specific information and contacts have been hard to come by today, but being in the area today should make things much easier.

We are also prepared to assist in anyway we can while we are also carrying out an assessment. The Portlight Live Webcam is running for much of this trip and you can view it and participate here:Portlight WEBCAM


We are beginning to identify needs in Eastern North Carolina in the aftermath of the recent torrential rains there. Many rural, isolated and under served areas will need our help. We are connecting with local officials and pastors who will be instrumental in helping us deliver relief. Our expectation is to deploy our relief trailer and, additionally, a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies within the next few days.

If you live in the area and know of specific needs, please post them here. Or WU mail us.

As usual, your support makes this work possible.

Thank you for continuing to make a difference in people's lives.
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Quoting weatherman123456:
97L Still a Threat for Flooding
my blog update


Imposter? :|

Weatherman12345's Wunderblog
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(greater than 130 percent of climatology.) I don't think so. That ain't happening.
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looks like we will be in stealth mode for a while even the blog is slow may even get a lot slower coming up on five hrs and we are struggling to get to 200 posts still
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52096
We'll likely see up to five more named storms before the end of the season (Whenever it decides to end).

I believe we'll see 3 named storms this month, and 1/2 between November and December.

The season isn't over, guys...
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Quoting winter123:


Good catch! This is an analogy year I hadn't heard of. Seems the overall steering patterns were the same. i.e. No east coast landfalls but one close call, lots of mexico landfalls.


nice job its looks pretty close.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Its only October 2nd. You have no idea whether or not October's a bust or not.


Talking about the first 2 weeks for sure will be a bust. Link
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Quoting NRAamy:
I give it a 60/40 chance....
No.... 30/70 chance....


No...wait....

33/67 chance.....
Yeah...that's it.....you can quote me on that....

Quoted! This will stay in the archives and I will make sure to post an "I told you so" during the Macy's Thanksgiving parade. ;-)~
Member Since: 30.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
Quoting NRAamy:
I give it a 60/40 chance....
No.... 30/70 chance....


No...wait....

33/67 chance.....
Yeah...that's it.....you can quote me on that....
yer quoted
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52096
Not a lot going on , looks kinda weak for anything for a while :) Nice nice baby nice nice !!!
Member Since: 4.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
Pressure has fall 3 millibars in 3hours
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I give it a 60/40 chance....
No.... 30/70 chance....


No...wait....

33/67 chance.....
Yeah...that's it.....you can quote me on that....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The pressure is falling at Guadalupe

Current Weather Conditions:
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe
(TFFR) 16-16N 061-31W 11M
Conditions at

2010.10.02 2000 UTC
Wind from the SSE (150 degrees) at 10 MPH (9 KT) (direction variable)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 82 F (28 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 78%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.71 in. Hg (1006 hPa)
ob TFFR 022000Z 15009KT 100V170 9999 FEW023 SCT080 BKN260 28/24 Q1006
24 Hour Summary

Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 4 PM (20) Oct 02 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.71 (1006) SSE 10
3 PM (19) Oct 02 84 (29) 75 (24) 29.71 (1006) SSE 12
2 PM (18) Oct 02 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.74 (1007) SSE 10
1 PM (17) Oct 02 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.77 (1008) S 13 showers in the vicinity
Noon (16) Oct 02 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.77 (1008) SE 13
11 AM (15) Oct 02 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.80 (1009) ESE 9
10 AM (14) Oct 02 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.83 (1010) E 7
9 AM (13) Oct 02 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.83 (1010) Variable 3 showers in the vicinity
8 AM (12) Oct 02 80 (27) 77 (25) 29.80 (1009) Calm showers in the vicinity
7 AM (11) Oct 02 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.80 (1009) Variable 1 light rain
6 AM (10) Oct 02 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.80 (1009) W 3
5 AM (9) Oct 02 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.77 (1008) Calm
4 AM (8) Oct 02 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.77 (1008) W 1
3 AM (7) Oct 02 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.77 (1008) Calm
2 AM (6) Oct 02 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.77 (1008) Variable 2
1 AM (5) Oct 02 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.80 (1009) Calm
Midnight (4) Oct 02 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) Calm
11 PM (3) Oct 01 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) Calm
10 PM (2) Oct 01 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.85 (1011) N 5
9 PM (1) Oct 01 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) NE 2
8 PM (0) Oct 01 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) Calm
7 PM (23) Oct 01 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) E 3
6 PM (22) Oct 01 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.80 (1009) E 3
Oldest 5 PM (21) Oct 01 84 (29) 75 (24) 29.80 (1009) E 5
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F(C) Dew Point
F(C) Pressure
Inches(hPa) Wind
(MPH) Weather
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Quoting pottery:

You SURE??
LOL

I'd give it a 50/50 chance..lol... but as you stated earlier I do feel that 3-4 storms in the near future is a bit aggressive as well.
Member Since: 30.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
VERY COOL WEATHER..
i have turned the heat to minimum this afternoon and we are running phase 1 in the building one boiler per side each side has 3 boilers for a total of 6 tonigh my area could get down in to the high 30's for lows so ya chilly right now its 53 outside
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52096
Quoting 954FtLCane:
IMO, hurricane season is sorta-kinda over but not really ;-)~

You SURE??
LOL
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IMO, hurricane season is sorta-kinda over but not really ;-)~
Member Since: 30.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Its only October 2nd. You have no idea whether or not October's a bust or not.

That's a fair comment..
But so was Robert's.
Conditions have changed a bit in the past week ( over CONUS and across the Trop. Atl)), and while we accept that conditions can change again, the forecast for 3-4 storms in the near future seem a bit aggressive to me.

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Eenie, meenie, miney, mo
Hurricane season is over

Hurricane season is not over

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Quoting CaptnDan142:


We are quite apparently thinking of very different timeframes.


We were watching Igor and Julia in the Atlantic and the models were trying to stir up Matthew, and Nicole.
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The forecast for rains tonight, sunday, monday and tuesday for Puerto Rico are very aggresive and goes from 90% to 100%. We will see if that verifies or not.
Member Since: 23.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1563

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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