97L to spread heavy rains in Lesser Antilles; major flooding in North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:42 (GMT)

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A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L), centered about 400 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Sunday. These showers can be seen approaching the islands on Martinique radar this morning. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 97L, and the waters beneath are very warm, 29°C, but recent satellite imagery shows that 97L's heavy thunderstorms are limited and not well organized. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 5:51am EDT showed a moderate wind shift associated with 97L, but nothing close to a closed circulation. Top winds were around 30 - 35 mph. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, today through Monday, then decline. The ECMWF model is the only model currently showing significant development 97L in the next seven days. The model predicts 97L will be near Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday, with the storm developing into a tropical depression on Wednesday just north of Haiti, then moving northwards through the Turks and Caicos Islands and out to sea on Thursday. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, and has not tasked the Hurricane Hunters to fly into the storm over the next two days. 97L will move at about 10 mph through the islands on Sunday through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. Even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression, its slow motion may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba as it moves past.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Major flooding in northeastern North Carolina
Major flooding continues in northeastern North Carolina, where the Cashie River in Windsor is 5.4 feet over flood stage. North Carolina has been deluged by more than twenty inches of rain in some regions over the past week, due to tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Tropical Storm Nicole. Wilmington, NC set records this week for the heaviest 3-day, 4-day, and 5-day rainfall events in city history, and the month of September ended up as the second rainiest month ever recorded in the city. A remarkable 22.54" of rain fell on Wilmington during the 5-day period Sunday through Thursday. The previous record was 19.06", set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, with just 0.18" of rain falling during the first 25 days of September. Representatives from Portlight.org are on their way to the hardest-hit areas of North Carolina to beginning identifying needs in the wake of the flooding. Portlight expects to perform the first deployment of their new relief trailer within the next few days and send a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies. You can follow their progress via the live webcam on the Portlight truck.

Our new Weather Extreme blogger, Christopher C. Burt, has posted a comparison of the maximum rainfall totals in each state affected by Hurricane Floyd of 1999, and this weeks extreme rainfall event, which he dubs "Super-Rainstorm Nicole." The two storms were very similar in the amount of rain they dumped, and we are very fortunate that moderate drought conditions preceded the arrival of this week's storm, or else billions in damage would have resulted.


Figure 2. Rainfall for the 7-day period ending at 8am EDT this morning shows the remarkable accumulations that fell in association with the tropical moisture ahead of Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: NOAA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Disturbed weather has diminished in the Central Caribbean, where the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole are no longer kicking up significant thunderstorm activity. Several of the models are predicting the formation of a tropical depression in the Mid-Atlantic 6 - 8 days from now, in a location that would not be of any danger to land areas.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

Flooding Bristol Vermont (31337)
Flooding Bristol Vermont
Too Wet To Harvest Today (duck29)
Heavy rain and high winds for 2 days caused flash flooding in many areas of New York State
Too Wet To Harvest Today

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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Might be time to go up there too! Already dug out the hoodies & Carhartts. Hot chocolate & Bailey's Irish Cream on the menu tonight.
Where are you? Thats alotta stuf main...
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

It feels dry in here. Where's the humidifier?
In the attic?
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Quoting JupiterFL:
The blog is slow for this time of year and this is my opinion why:
Part of the problem is the all out assault certain bloggers have taken recently. Would anyone really fault Reed if he never showed up again? Some people make jokes and some are students, some are professional mets and some are smart enough to be if so desired. The main thing is that this is a community. We should all be more tolerant no matter what the other person adds to the blog. This blog has a huge population that is a sample of the real world. I certainly am not going to get along with everyone in here but I can skip their posts. Its ok if someone makes a joke about me. I can laugh at myself without "reporting" or "flagging".
CAN YOU?



Good post, J. Bet the ones responsible don't answer the question.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Looks like a small upper low. CIMSS 200 mb vorticity data confirms too.
Well Kori.. That upper low could reach the surface rather quickly. Conditions are favorable in that region.Where is my orange crayon.....hmmmm.lol
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I'll 2nd that. And nice to see the casters crawling back into their holes. Nothing but blue skies.


What about the forecasters?
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Ha! You betcha, Pat!

:)
Member Since: 24.01.2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
This..... Could plausibly pull all of this... into this...
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you'd figure with extreme weather nowadays that there could be a rapid change between el nino and la nina. any sign of the el nino?
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Too bad nothing going in tropics....looks like all that is left is Football, fire, and adult beverages. Great weather!!


That doesn't sound so bad....
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Hey Korithe....

Member Since: 24.01.2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
Quoting hydrus:
I think I found something interesting...Look at this loop. There is a good spin between Puerto Rico and the Domenican Republic...Link If you zoom on it ya cant miss it.


Looks like a small upper low. CIMSS 200 mb vorticity data confirms too.
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Alright! I get to flip the page.
Member Since: 13.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1402
Will do... Thanks.

Ohh can you at least wipe it off first?

JupiterFL - Sometimes this place reminds me of Junior High... I do agree with you. I may not agree with everyone here, but I don't let it affect me personally. I also don't go "after" people for their viewpoint either. (A certain annoying blogger excluded)
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Quoting NRAamy:
Hola trauma y Captn.....

We had a cool lightning storm at 6 AM....no rain.... I watched the flashes out over the ocean.... Can't remember the last time that happened....


Kitty didn't think it was all that cool tho, eh? lol
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Sure, Dak....just make sure you give it back asap..... I get the feeling I'm not through with it....
Member Since: 24.01.2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
Quoting bappit:

A few of our prolific bloggers are absent. That's part of it.


I'm here, lurking as usual. We have a bit of a fall lull underway, but we might get something to watch later in the week. Till then, all's quiet on the blog front! In some ways, I kind of like it, since the clean out awhile ago, a large part of the blog was at times simply moronic. Most all of the posts at the present time are a nice read, just aren't very many of them!
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{{{Amy}}}
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NRAamy - Can I borrow one our your forks... I need to stick it in 97L, 'cause it looks done...

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The blog is slow for this time of year and this is my opinion why:
Part of the problem is the all out assault certain bloggers have taken recently. Would anyone really fault Reed if he never showed up again? Some people make jokes and some are students, some are professional mets and some are smart enough to be if so desired. The main thing is that this is a community. We should all be more tolerant no matter what the other person adds to the blog. This blog has a huge population that is a sample of the real world. I certainly am not going to get along with everyone in here but I can skip their posts. Its ok if someone makes a joke about me. I can laugh at myself without "reporting" or "flagging".
CAN YOU?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi Oakland!

:)
Member Since: 24.01.2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
Hola trauma y Captn.....

We had a cool lightning storm at 6 AM....no rain.... I watched the flashes out over the ocean.... Can't remember the last time that happened....
Member Since: 24.01.2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Hippo math?

;-)


It's Amy, what else could it be?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm here. :P
I think I found something interesting...Look at this loop. There is a good spin between Puerto Rico and the Domenican Republic...Link If you zoom on it ya cant miss it.
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Quoting traumaboyy:
Watup Amy.....Kori....Dan....and weekend crew!!


Hiya Hiya
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Quoting NRAamy:
Ok, fine.....

I'm going with 47 1/2 and 56 2/3 chances.....



Hippo math?

;-)
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Watup Amy.....Kori....Dan....and weekend crew!!
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18N 63W.. light rain right now
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Ok, fine.....

I'm going with 47 1/2 and 56 2/3 chances.....

Member Since: 24.01.2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Thanks for update, Doc


Great avatar photo!
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Quoting Neapolitan:


The blog can definitely be childish at times. And those who use real science to forecast what might happen should never be open to ridicule, in my opinion. But those who pull baseless wishcasts out of thin air--that is, with absolutely nothing substantial to support what they write--do deserve to be laughed at. That's how a social organism works to keep the foolishness to a minimum.

Again, I'm not saying anyone's opinion should be squashed...but if someone wants to come on here and say, "My feeling is that three Cat 5's will make landfall in Tampa by October 15th", he or she needs to be willing to accept derision when those storms fail to materialize. By the same token, those proclaiming the season over here on October 2nd, while the Atlantic waters are still warm and deep and atmospheric conditons aren't unnecessarily hostile all over, deserves to be questioned as to his or her methodology...especially if that methodology is based on nothing more scientific than gazing into a Harry Potter crystal ball.

That's how science works, guys.

A bit stuffy in here. Open some windows, let in the crisp fall air coming down from up north.
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Quoting bappit:

A few of our prolific bloggers are absent. That's part of it.


I'm here. :P
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
more like a winter blog with such low post numbers going on 6 hrs still not at 200

A few of our prolific bloggers are absent. That's part of it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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