97L to spread heavy rains in Lesser Antilles; major flooding in North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:42 (GMT)

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A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L), centered about 400 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Sunday. These showers can be seen approaching the islands on Martinique radar this morning. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 97L, and the waters beneath are very warm, 29°C, but recent satellite imagery shows that 97L's heavy thunderstorms are limited and not well organized. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 5:51am EDT showed a moderate wind shift associated with 97L, but nothing close to a closed circulation. Top winds were around 30 - 35 mph. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, today through Monday, then decline. The ECMWF model is the only model currently showing significant development 97L in the next seven days. The model predicts 97L will be near Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday, with the storm developing into a tropical depression on Wednesday just north of Haiti, then moving northwards through the Turks and Caicos Islands and out to sea on Thursday. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, and has not tasked the Hurricane Hunters to fly into the storm over the next two days. 97L will move at about 10 mph through the islands on Sunday through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. Even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression, its slow motion may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba as it moves past.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Major flooding in northeastern North Carolina
Major flooding continues in northeastern North Carolina, where the Cashie River in Windsor is 5.4 feet over flood stage. North Carolina has been deluged by more than twenty inches of rain in some regions over the past week, due to tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Tropical Storm Nicole. Wilmington, NC set records this week for the heaviest 3-day, 4-day, and 5-day rainfall events in city history, and the month of September ended up as the second rainiest month ever recorded in the city. A remarkable 22.54" of rain fell on Wilmington during the 5-day period Sunday through Thursday. The previous record was 19.06", set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, with just 0.18" of rain falling during the first 25 days of September. Representatives from Portlight.org are on their way to the hardest-hit areas of North Carolina to beginning identifying needs in the wake of the flooding. Portlight expects to perform the first deployment of their new relief trailer within the next few days and send a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies. You can follow their progress via the live webcam on the Portlight truck.

Our new Weather Extreme blogger, Christopher C. Burt, has posted a comparison of the maximum rainfall totals in each state affected by Hurricane Floyd of 1999, and this weeks extreme rainfall event, which he dubs "Super-Rainstorm Nicole." The two storms were very similar in the amount of rain they dumped, and we are very fortunate that moderate drought conditions preceded the arrival of this week's storm, or else billions in damage would have resulted.


Figure 2. Rainfall for the 7-day period ending at 8am EDT this morning shows the remarkable accumulations that fell in association with the tropical moisture ahead of Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: NOAA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Disturbed weather has diminished in the Central Caribbean, where the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole are no longer kicking up significant thunderstorm activity. Several of the models are predicting the formation of a tropical depression in the Mid-Atlantic 6 - 8 days from now, in a location that would not be of any danger to land areas.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

Flooding Bristol Vermont (31337)
Flooding Bristol Vermont
Too Wet To Harvest Today (duck29)
Heavy rain and high winds for 2 days caused flash flooding in many areas of New York State
Too Wet To Harvest Today

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Good evening, everyone. 82 degrees with a 79 heat index, beautiful out!
Member Since: 22.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
:) I agree.
Good evening SWCI...I believe the tropics still have a couple of surprises for us...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
272. bwi
NHC experimental gridded forecasts:
Pressure
Wind
Wave Height

I'm not sure what to make of this particular forecast, but the graphics are really cool looking!
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97L still at 10%. Well, they haven't given up on it yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 022332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
It looked a little like the Pacific to me this year..The exception being the Pacific did not look like the Pacific this year.
:) I agree.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
This has got to be the weirdest year for the way almost all the systems developed.
It looked a little like the Pacific to me this year..The exception being the Pacific did not look like the Pacific this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting InTheCone:


K-Man was on earlier and thought that piece of energy to the south merited watching. I have not seen any model support for it(although I haven't looked at all the latest runs - watching football!), and it will have to get further west to get going. Got to keep an eye out, this season will have a few more storms - imho!
This has got to be the weirdest year for the way almost all the systems developed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
262. JLPR2
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 PM AST SAT OCT 2 2010

...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

A SIGNIFICANT AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AND POSSIBLY LONGER. A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...LOCATED EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...FLASH FLOODING...AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WILL
BECOME BETTER DEFINED THROUGH TIME AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
BEGINNING MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE NECESSARY FORCING TO
GENERATE HEAVY AND PERSISTENT RAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGHER OR
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND HOW
LONG IT TAKES FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...ALL OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...AS WELL
AS ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ARE AT RISK OF EXPERIENCING SOME
FLOODING.

GIVEN THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS EVENT AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA...THIS EVENT POSES A THREAT OF MUD
AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN STEEP TERRAIN AND OF AT LEAST MODERATE
FLOODING. MODERATE FLOODING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS
FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS WITH INUNDATION OF STRUCTURES AND ROADS
NEAR STREAMS AND RIVERS IS POSSIBLE.

It's going to be a long week. :|
Some of that dry air in the Gulf could be useful around here.
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Thanks for the update.

97L is not looking healthy. GFS isn't developing it. NHC gives it only a 10% chance. I don't think so.

GFS does apparently develop some disturbance in about a week but it's going out to sea.

Weird that the Atlantic has gotten pretty calm after over a month of continuous activity.

I think we will have 5 more storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major. In that case we would end at Shary. Also I think it will be 4 in the storms in October, 2 of the hurricanes, and the major and then in mid November a weak hurricane will close the season out.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Vorticity around 68W looking more uniform and 97L looks like it wants to separate into two pieces of energy.


K-Man was on earlier and thought that piece of energy to the south merited watching. I have not seen any model support for it(although I haven't looked at all the latest runs - watching football!), and it will have to get further west to get going. Got to keep an eye out, this season will have a few more storms - imho!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
255. JLPR2
This is the first time I see this!
My forecast tomorrow:

100%! :S

97L firing away
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
no, this is about the tropics. post things that make sense, anytime ,,,,
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the point of the matter is people saying wishcaster, fish, and all the other stuff. most people on here dont know anything about the tropics...just read and learn ok...then post things that have reason behind them ok.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting traumaboyy:


Too bad nothing going in tropics....looks like all that is left is Football, fire, and adult beverages. Great weather!!


It all sounded like a great idea, but unfortunately, playing with fire is not allowed at the moment. Bummer.

Issued by The National Weather Service
Tallahassee, FL
1:51 pm CDT, Sat., Oct. 2, 2010

... RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ SUNDAY...

... FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ MONDAY...

FOUR HOURS OR MORE OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW... OR WILL SHORTLY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&
More Information

... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND MOST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND FOR LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

... A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ SUNDAY EVENING FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

... A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 1 PM CDT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA ZONES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 30 PERCENT AND 20 FOOT WINDS OF 10 MPH OR GREATER AND HIGH KBDI VALUES...

... A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ MONDAY EVENING FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

... A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 1 PM CDT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA ZONES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 30 PERCENT AND 20 FOOT WINDS OF 10 MPH OR GREATER AND HIGH KBDI VALUES...


The down side to this nice fall-like weather we have been enjoying.
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Important Message:

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 PM AST SAT OCT 2 2010

...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

A SIGNIFICANT AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AND POSSIBLY LONGER. A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...LOCATED EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...FLASH FLOODING...AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WILL
BECOME BETTER DEFINED THROUGH TIME AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
BEGINNING MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE NECESSARY FORCING TO
GENERATE HEAVY AND PERSISTENT RAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. HIGHER OR
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND HOW
LONG IT TAKES FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THIS
TIME...ALL OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...AS WELL
AS ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ARE AT RISK OF EXPERIENCING SOME
FLOODING.

GIVEN THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS EVENT AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA...THIS EVENT POSES A THREAT OF MUD
AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN STEEP TERRAIN AND OF AT LEAST MODERATE
FLOODING. MODERATE FLOODING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS
FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS WITH INUNDATION OF STRUCTURES AND ROADS
NEAR STREAMS AND RIVERS IS POSSIBLE.

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION AVAILABLE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. FOR SHORT TERM FLOODING POTENTIAL...PLEASE
REFER TO LATEST FLOOD MESSAGE AVAILABLE FROM OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN.

$$

SR/WS
Member Since: 23.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1563
Quoting JLPR2:
97L looking disorganized but will surely bring lots of rain to the NE Caribbean :|



Tomorrow seems like a rainy day for me.
..Yes..It does look like there is a cloud or two due east of you...;0
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Quoting JLPR2:
97L looking disorganized but will surely bring lots of rain to the NE Caribbean :|



Tomorrow seems like a rainy day for me.
Vorticity around 68W looking more uniform and 97L looks like it wants to separate into two pieces of energy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
244. srada
NWS still talking about this weak coastal storm materializing

it looks like on the latest GFS it actually stalls further northwards around NJ and then bombs out around New England and Canada..whats with the early noreasterns..are the noreasterns part of the active hurricane season?

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST
TONIGHT. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY TONIGHT...PASSING EAST OF THE REGION. STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THE LOW PASSES TO THE COAST AND
WHETHER OR NOT COASTAL COUNTIES SEE ANY PRECIP. 12Z NAM/CANADIAN AND
00Z ECMWF KEEP THE LOW A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE 12Z
GFS. A COMPARISON BETWEEN THE PATTERN ALOFT SHOWS THAT THE UPPER
TROF DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND THE
TROF AXIS IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...HELPING KEEP THE SURFACE
FEATURES A LITTLE FARTHER OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE 2 SOLUTIONS IS NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT THE AFFECT IT HAS ON THE
FORECAST IS. THE POP GRADIENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW IS VERY
TIGHT AND A SLIGHT SHIFT EAST/WEST WILL DETERMINE IF PRECIP REACHES
THE COAST OR NOT.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
239. JLPR2
97L looking disorganized but will surely bring lots of rain to the NE Caribbean :|



Tomorrow seems like a rainy day for me.
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Up visiting friends in Chgo. Frost warnings all over the upper-Midwest. Although it got quite chilly down in the low country of SC before I left. Definitely a bit unseasonal.
Yes..They are forecasting patchy frost here on the Cumberland Plateau.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Krycek1984:


Part of it is because there aren't 100 posts a day ...


That could be part of it. But in the overall scheme of things, not that big of a deal. It had been tapering off pretty fast anyway. The event that revolves around was like 3 weeks ago - and in internet-time, 3 weeks is an eternity. The big drop-off hit Thursday night I believe it was. It was a sudden and profound drop in activity on the page.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Might be time to go up there too! Already dug out the hoodies & Carhartts. Hot chocolate & Bailey's Irish Cream on the menu tonight.
Where are you? Thats alotta stuf main...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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