97L to spread heavy rains in Lesser Antilles; major flooding in North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:42 (GMT)

Share this Blog
3
+

A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L), centered about 400 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Sunday. These showers can be seen approaching the islands on Martinique radar this morning. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 97L, and the waters beneath are very warm, 29°C, but recent satellite imagery shows that 97L's heavy thunderstorms are limited and not well organized. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 5:51am EDT showed a moderate wind shift associated with 97L, but nothing close to a closed circulation. Top winds were around 30 - 35 mph. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, today through Monday, then decline. The ECMWF model is the only model currently showing significant development 97L in the next seven days. The model predicts 97L will be near Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday, with the storm developing into a tropical depression on Wednesday just north of Haiti, then moving northwards through the Turks and Caicos Islands and out to sea on Thursday. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, and has not tasked the Hurricane Hunters to fly into the storm over the next two days. 97L will move at about 10 mph through the islands on Sunday through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. Even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression, its slow motion may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba as it moves past.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Major flooding in northeastern North Carolina
Major flooding continues in northeastern North Carolina, where the Cashie River in Windsor is 5.4 feet over flood stage. North Carolina has been deluged by more than twenty inches of rain in some regions over the past week, due to tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Tropical Storm Nicole. Wilmington, NC set records this week for the heaviest 3-day, 4-day, and 5-day rainfall events in city history, and the month of September ended up as the second rainiest month ever recorded in the city. A remarkable 22.54" of rain fell on Wilmington during the 5-day period Sunday through Thursday. The previous record was 19.06", set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, with just 0.18" of rain falling during the first 25 days of September. Representatives from Portlight.org are on their way to the hardest-hit areas of North Carolina to beginning identifying needs in the wake of the flooding. Portlight expects to perform the first deployment of their new relief trailer within the next few days and send a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies. You can follow their progress via the live webcam on the Portlight truck.

Our new Weather Extreme blogger, Christopher C. Burt, has posted a comparison of the maximum rainfall totals in each state affected by Hurricane Floyd of 1999, and this weeks extreme rainfall event, which he dubs "Super-Rainstorm Nicole." The two storms were very similar in the amount of rain they dumped, and we are very fortunate that moderate drought conditions preceded the arrival of this week's storm, or else billions in damage would have resulted.


Figure 2. Rainfall for the 7-day period ending at 8am EDT this morning shows the remarkable accumulations that fell in association with the tropical moisture ahead of Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: NOAA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Disturbed weather has diminished in the Central Caribbean, where the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole are no longer kicking up significant thunderstorm activity. Several of the models are predicting the formation of a tropical depression in the Mid-Atlantic 6 - 8 days from now, in a location that would not be of any danger to land areas.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

Flooding Bristol Vermont (31337)
Flooding Bristol Vermont
Too Wet To Harvest Today (duck29)
Heavy rain and high winds for 2 days caused flash flooding in many areas of New York State
Too Wet To Harvest Today

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 331 - 281

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

331. JLPR2
If there is a circulation with 97L then it is slightly to the NW of the convection.
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Our Sun today:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting brohavwx:
While everyone is watching Invest 97 I think we, in the Windward Islands need to start looking at the system that looks to be forming around 10N 40W which you will note has evidence of a surface circulation as seen by the latest WINDSAT pass ...



Also recent Satellite Imagery shows more organised convection forming over this area ...



Clouds top are in the -70's C and near -80C in a couple of spots there.

I've watching this area since yesterday, as I noticed some turning in satellite animations, and according to the last Tropical Weather Discussion at 8PM EDT mentions a 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ON THE WESTERN END OF THE ITCZ NEAR 9N41W.

Time will tell as usual.

No westerly winds in that ASCAT pass.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
328. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No :P


Well maybe with a stargate XD LOL!

Also I read it didn't spin much, so part of the planet is cold and the other facing its star is hot, but the temps in the middle of those areas would be appropriate to wear a shirt and shorts. :D
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Don't forget SST's are very warm in that area too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BDADUDE:
Can i move there tomorrow?


No :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
10n and 40w should be our new Invest !!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We found a new planet :D

It may be able to sustain life, but its about 20 light years away (Over 300,000 years)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting brohavwx:
While everyone is watching Invest 97 I think we, in the Windward Islands need to start looking at the system that looks to be forming around 10N 40W which you will note has evidence of a surface circulation as seen by the latest WINDSAT pass ...



Also recent Satellite Imagery shows more organised convection forming over this area ...



Clouds top are in the -70's C and near -80C in a couple of spots there.

I've watching this area since yesterday, as I noticed some turning in satellite animations, and according to the last Tropical Weather Discussion at 8PM EDT mentions a 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ON THE WESTERN END OF THE ITCZ NEAR 9N41W.

Time will tell as usual.


In most cases, WindSat is wrong. However, that seems to go hand=in-hand with this ASCAT pass:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yeah 10N 40W looks interesting too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There was a nice blow up close the NE leewards this afternoon, but all the heavy activity stayed offshore... then weakened...
Right now, the sky is overcast but no rain and no lightnings : borring lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
While everyone is watching Invest 97 I think we, in the Windward Islands need to start looking at the system that looks to be forming around 10N 40W which you will note has evidence of a surface circulation as seen by the latest WINDSAT pass ...



Also recent Satellite Imagery shows more organised convection forming over this area ...



Clouds top are in the -70's C and near -80C in a couple of spots there.

I've watching this area since yesterday, as I noticed some turning in satellite animations, and according to the last Tropical Weather Discussion at 8PM EDT mentions a 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ON THE WESTERN END OF THE ITCZ NEAR 9N41W.

Time will tell as usual.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
I'm still waiting for the rain to begin here in Villa Fontana. No nothing yet !!!


Not much at st martin and surroundings too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
97L's vort all the way from 50W to 65W O.o
And the CATL low at 9N is looking better


I feel like I'm the only one discussing 97L :\


I'm here too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
315. JLPR2
Quoting Dakster:
What is UPR? Upper Puerto Rico?


University of Puerto Rico XD

Also this is convenient -_____- <--- stolen from JFV XD LOL!
MESSAGE DATE: OCT 02 2010 15:17:00 THE FAA/NWS SAN JUAN WSR-88D (TJUA) RADAR WENT DOWN JUST AFTER 0901 AST OR 02/1301Z. TECHNICIANS WILL NOT GO UP UP UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. UNTIL THAT TIME THE RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE. SNELL
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What is UPR? Upper Puerto Rico?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
312. JLPR2
Quoting Relix:
Yeah this week the UPR becomes the Rio Piedras Water Park. Should be awesome. XD!! The first disturbance should reach tomorrow and affect us until Monday, and then late Tuesday, early Wednesday the real 97L arrives, be it just a low, a TD or a TS. Really unlikely it becomes anything, it will probably be like Fay back in 2008.


Ah yes, just going to make our lives miserable for a week. :\
I'm really not looking forward to crossing the UPR from Generales to Adm. T_T Lots of rivers and puddles in that area.
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
I'm still waiting for the rain to begin here in Villa Fontana. No nothing yet !!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
310. Relix
Yeah this week the UPR becomes the Rio Piedras Water Park. Should be awesome. XD!! The first disturbance should reach tomorrow and affect us until Monday, and then late Tuesday, early Wednesday the real 97L arrives, be it just a low, a TD or a TS. Really unlikely it becomes anything, it will probably be like Fay back in 2008.
Member Since: 3.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2639
309. JLPR2
Quoting Relix:


I am here!! =P!


Hiya! I was feeling all alone LOL!
I guess you are not looking forward to the big puddles and flowing creeks(LOL) at UPR this week? XD
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
308. JLPR2
Quoting Dakster:
JLPR2 - Possible.

Been thinking it wasn't going to be much more than a bad thunderstorm at this point. I guess you will be able to tell us firsthand!


yup
Seems it should start tonight.

And then after that 97L arrives.
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
307. Relix
Quoting JLPR2:
97L's vort all the way from 50W to 65W O.o
And the CATL low at 9N is looking better


I feel like I'm the only one discussing 97L :\


I am here!! =P!
Member Since: 3.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2639
JLPR2 - Possible.

Been thinking it wasn't going to be much more than a bad thunderstorm at this point. I guess you will be able to tell us firsthand!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
305. JLPR2
97L's vort all the way from 50W to 65W O.o
And the CATL low at 9N is looking better


I feel like I'm the only one discussing 97L :\
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Quoting KoritheMan:


Should have added some crow to it, given my enormous forecast bust with Gaston. :P


LOL, no crow for good sports! At my house crow only goes to those who can't admit they made a mistake. (We are aren't 'wrong', we just make mistakes here.)
Member Since: 22.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3112
302. JLPR2




Yeah...
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
301. JLPR2
3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 00:58 (GMT)
Observations from the islands are interesting:

Anguilla got NNE winds
Guadeloupe West winds
Saint Maartin NE Winds
Saint Kitts N winds

Seems there are several spins around.
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
300. GeoffreyWPB
3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 00:57 (GMT)
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
299. KoritheMan
3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 00:55 (GMT)
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Thank you! I missed the game since I was at my daughter's volleyball tournament.



Here ya go, Korithe! chicken, duck and sausage gumbo. Enjoy!


Should have added some crow to it, given my enormous forecast bust with Gaston. :P
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19123
295. JLPR2
3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 00:45 (GMT)
Quoting Relix:
97L firing the last cylinders?


I guess that making some distance from the disturbance over the islands is helping it out a little.


three vort areas now...
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
294. weatherwart
3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 00:41 (GMT)
Oh yeah! Five day forecast for moi:

86° F | 59° F
85° F | 50° F
83° F | 56° F
83° F | 56° F
83° F | 58° F
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
288. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 00:36 (GMT)
Quoting NRAamy:
If a tree falls in an empty blog, and there is no one there to hear it, does it make a sound?

yes just know one here to hear it
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
287. Felix2007
3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 00:31 (GMT)
Wow the blog is not active at all... wake up people. :|

Member Since: 12.07.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 383
286. KoritheMan
3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 00:30 (GMT)
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Made a big pot of Gumbo, anyone want some? Great for cool weather.


I'll take some. ;)
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19123
284. Relix
3. lokakuuta 2010 klo 00:30 (GMT)
97L firing the last cylinders?
Member Since: 3.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2639
281. aislinnpaps
2. lokakuuta 2010 klo 23:54 (GMT)
Good evening, everyone. 82 degrees with a 79 heat index, beautiful out!
Member Since: 22.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3112

Viewing: 331 - 281

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Clear
39 °F
Selkeää