97L to spread heavy rains in Lesser Antilles; major flooding in North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:42 (GMT)

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A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L), centered about 400 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Sunday. These showers can be seen approaching the islands on Martinique radar this morning. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 97L, and the waters beneath are very warm, 29°C, but recent satellite imagery shows that 97L's heavy thunderstorms are limited and not well organized. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 5:51am EDT showed a moderate wind shift associated with 97L, but nothing close to a closed circulation. Top winds were around 30 - 35 mph. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, today through Monday, then decline. The ECMWF model is the only model currently showing significant development 97L in the next seven days. The model predicts 97L will be near Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday, with the storm developing into a tropical depression on Wednesday just north of Haiti, then moving northwards through the Turks and Caicos Islands and out to sea on Thursday. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, and has not tasked the Hurricane Hunters to fly into the storm over the next two days. 97L will move at about 10 mph through the islands on Sunday through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. Even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression, its slow motion may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba as it moves past.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Major flooding in northeastern North Carolina
Major flooding continues in northeastern North Carolina, where the Cashie River in Windsor is 5.4 feet over flood stage. North Carolina has been deluged by more than twenty inches of rain in some regions over the past week, due to tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Tropical Storm Nicole. Wilmington, NC set records this week for the heaviest 3-day, 4-day, and 5-day rainfall events in city history, and the month of September ended up as the second rainiest month ever recorded in the city. A remarkable 22.54" of rain fell on Wilmington during the 5-day period Sunday through Thursday. The previous record was 19.06", set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, with just 0.18" of rain falling during the first 25 days of September. Representatives from Portlight.org are on their way to the hardest-hit areas of North Carolina to beginning identifying needs in the wake of the flooding. Portlight expects to perform the first deployment of their new relief trailer within the next few days and send a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies. You can follow their progress via the live webcam on the Portlight truck.

Our new Weather Extreme blogger, Christopher C. Burt, has posted a comparison of the maximum rainfall totals in each state affected by Hurricane Floyd of 1999, and this weeks extreme rainfall event, which he dubs "Super-Rainstorm Nicole." The two storms were very similar in the amount of rain they dumped, and we are very fortunate that moderate drought conditions preceded the arrival of this week's storm, or else billions in damage would have resulted.


Figure 2. Rainfall for the 7-day period ending at 8am EDT this morning shows the remarkable accumulations that fell in association with the tropical moisture ahead of Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: NOAA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Disturbed weather has diminished in the Central Caribbean, where the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole are no longer kicking up significant thunderstorm activity. Several of the models are predicting the formation of a tropical depression in the Mid-Atlantic 6 - 8 days from now, in a location that would not be of any danger to land areas.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

Flooding Bristol Vermont (31337)
Flooding Bristol Vermont
Too Wet To Harvest Today (duck29)
Heavy rain and high winds for 2 days caused flash flooding in many areas of New York State
Too Wet To Harvest Today

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380. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


What is this an Abbott & Costello routine?? Who's on first?


XD
Never mind winds went calm in the last update in both islands.
Probably it's the fake hurricane to their west fault.
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Quoting JLPR2:
So if two islands are one north of the other and the one to the south reports winds from the WNW with the one to the to NNE and the one even further north E does that mean there is a circulation to their west?
Martinique: WNW
Dominica: NNE

Which would put it in the convection to their west.



What is this an Abbott & Costello routine?? Who's on first?
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Quoting NRAamy:
If a tree falls in an empty blog, and there is no one there to hear it, does it make a sound?



Didn't know it fell. If it did, it probably violated the community standards.

Wasn't tropical and all that...
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374. JLPR2
Look a hurricane! XD LOL!
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Quoting JLPR2:


yup
Seems it should start tonight.

And then after that 97L arrives.
...interesting little swirl off the tip of dr.....
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372. JLPR2
So if two islands are one north of the other and the one to the south reports winds from the WNW with the one to the to NNE and the one even further north E does that mean there is a circulation to their west?
Martinique: WNW
Dominica: NNE

Which would put it in the convection to their west.

Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Member Since: 13.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1402
Yeah, I'm tired now too, so of to bed - we'll see how tomorrow pans out in the 10N 40W area.
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Yep, ASCAT was a bit to far east to show the circulation shown by LandSat I posted earlier. But it does hint at it though.

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Oregon Ducks ahead by 7!!!!!!!!
Member Since: 24.01.2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
Thanks for the update StormJunkie!!!!
Member Since: 24.01.2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
366. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
NAM and GFS models are now in agreement that a low preassure system will be forming into a tropical cyclone, maybe a depression or a weak storm moving north of Puerto Rico.


Yeah I noticed that and 97L is trying to make a comeback and it isn't even the peak of D-max.
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
NAM and GFS models are now in agreement that a low preassure system will be forming into a tropical cyclone, maybe a depression or a weak storm moving north of Puerto Rico.
Member Since: 23.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1563
Good evening all.

Vanceboro, NC flooding...






View the rest of the pictures from today on the Portlight Blog.

Must go to bed, but please join in the video and chat tomorrow. Will be going back to Vanceboro and then to Windsor, NC. Or you can click it now and check the view out my window while I sleep...

Have a good night all and please consider making a donation to Portlight. No one I spoke with today that had their homes flooded had heard from any other relief organizations. So in many respects, Portlight may be there only resource.
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Quoting Grothar:


Went through the whole site. Found it few weeks back. Lot of work on that! Never saw you on here before, but noticed you had links to Wunderground.


I've been on here a few times but far & few between, mostly I lurk a bit. But its times like this that I like to get on and see what others have to say and in this case I decided why not lead the chat a bit and see how it goes.
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361. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, JL. Looks like you might get a little wet.


Yup
I dislike rain during the week :|
I guess I'll have to go on a boat to college. XD
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Heard about that, sure pat did too.

The problem is that it has a mass 3-4x greater than that of the planet Earth.. so we don't know how perfect it is. It also lies close to its Red Dwarf star, which is problematic, as although the hypothetical 'habitability' zone around a red dwarf is exactly where this planet is, we don't know if any ejecta from the surface of the star has shed its atmosphere and sterilized the surface with radiation
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Quoting NRAamy:
Groth....absolutely nothing....and I mean nothing....happened while you were gone....we've all just been watching paint dry and grass grow.....

Did I mention it was slow tonite?

Oh, and I'm in the mood for a DingDong....but not Dak's DingDong, which apparently made his wife happy....not sure why....

I think that should bring you up to speed....


Saw that earlier. A few years back, I was just going out at this time, now I sit and watch blobs in the Atlantic on a Saturday night. At least back in the 1920's we had fun.
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Member Since: 13.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1402
Quoting Relix:
Where is our little blob at 10N moving to?


Not much movement at this time, almost looks stationary, which ain't good over those very warm SST's - will have to wait and see - it might just disappear as quickly as it started up a couple hours ago.
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Quoting JLPR2:


*Tumbleweed*

Nope, LOL!


Hey, JL. Looks like you might get a little wet.
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Quoting brohavwx:


Thanks, yes, had it now for about 10+ years. Have receiving my imagery for about 20 years, first WEFAX & APT, now I have a GOES LRIT receiver and software to process the GOES 13 imagery. And as you might have seen I have a Lightning Detector and my own Weather Station that I post direct to the site too.


Went through the whole site. Found it few weeks back. Lot of work on that! Never saw you on here before, but noticed you had links to Wunderground.
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Quoting Grothar:


Like your website, is it yours?


Thanks, yes, had it now for about 10+ years. Have receiving my imagery for about 20 years, first WEFAX & APT, now I have a GOES LRIT receiver and software to process the GOES 13 imagery. And as you might have seen I have a Lightning Detector and my own Weather Station that I post direct to the site too.
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Quoting Grothar:


Geez, I have to wake up to insults now! And to think I showed you how to post your first map.


You never showed me lol
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Quoting caneswatch:


That invest and you lol


Geez, I have to wake up to insults now! And to think I showed you how to post your first map.
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350. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


Yo, Amy! Just woke up from my little nap. Anything happen while I was gone?


*Tumbleweed*

Nope, LOL!
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
349. Relix
Where is our little blob at 10N moving to?
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Quoting Grothar:


What's a mess?


That invest and you lol
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Quoting brohavwx:
Sorry, thought that was a newer image ... will have to wait a few more minutes.


Like your website, is it yours?
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Quoting caneswatch:


Only a mess now lol


What's a mess?
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Quoting NRAamy:
Yo Groth....


Yo, Amy! Just woke up from my little nap. Anything happen while I was gone?
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Quoting Grothar:


Only a mess now lol
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You know, I read that they've already got a Starbucks...

Kidding. Mostly :D
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Sorry, thought that was a newer image ... will have to wait a few more minutes.
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Quoting jeffs713:

No westerly winds in that ASCAT pass.


I think the pass was a bit too far to the east at that time, and it looks more organised every time I get a new GOES-13 image (every 1/2 hour).



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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well, 337 comments now...


Darn! 338 comments now!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------

LMAO!
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339. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well, 337 comments now...


XD LOl!

And 97L is starting to look like a sheared system.
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Well, 337 comments now...
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11 hours...
336 comments...

WOW!
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Met Service of Jamaica
October 2, 2010 – 5:00 p.m.

***FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUED…***

The Meteorological Service has continued the Flash Flood Warning for low-lying and flood prone areas of all parishes until 5:00 p.m. tomorrow.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING means flooding has been reported or will occur shortly. Motorists and pedestrians should not attempt to cross flooded roadways or other low-lying areas as strong currents are likely. Residents in low-lying areas should be on the alert for rising waters and be ready to move quickly to higher ground.

An Area of Low Pressure persists over the central Caribbean including Jamaica, and continues to influence weather conditions across the island. The system is still generating disorganized showers with embedded thunderstorms.

Radar reports and satellite imagery indicate that throughout Saturday, scattered light to moderate and at times heavy showers and thunderstorms affected most areas, especially over southern parishes.

The forecast is for showers and thunderstorms to continue affecting the island for at least the next 48 hours. Due to the soil saturation already experience across the country further flash flooding is expected in vulnerable areas.

Gusty wind conditions and above normal wave heights are expected north and south of the island through the weekend. Fishers and other marine interests should, therefore, exercise extreme caution.

The Meteorological Service is monitoring the progress of this system.

pef/cdj
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Yo Groth....
Member Since: 24.01.2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
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Checking the sea level here...
seems to be a certain "roll" to the tide....
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331. JLPR2
If there is a circulation with 97L then it is slightly to the NW of the convection.
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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