Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Its only October 2nd. You have no idea whether or not October's a bust or not.

Talking about the first 2 weeks for sure will be a bust. Link

Quoting winter123:


Good catch! This is an analogy year I hadn't heard of. Seems the overall steering patterns were the same. i.e. No east coast landfalls but one close call, lots of mexico landfalls.

nice job its looks pretty close.

We'll likely see up to five more named storms before the end of the season (Whenever it decides to end).

I believe we'll see 3 named storms this month, and 1/2 between November and December.

The season isn't over, guys...

looks like we will be in stealth mode for a while even the blog is slow may even get a lot slower coming up on five hrs and we are struggling to get to 200 posts still

(greater than 130 percent of climatology.) I don't think so. That ain't happening.

Quoting weatherman123456:
97L Still a Threat for Flooding
my blog update

Imposter? :|

Weatherman12345's Wunderblog

Storm Junkie has entered the flood zone as seen on the Portlight Webcam here

Portlight Disaster Relief


We are headed up to eastern North Carolina right now to begin identifying communities that are a good fit for the Portlight mission. Specific information and contacts have been hard to come by today, but being in the area today should make things much easier.

We are also prepared to assist in anyway we can while we are also carrying out an assessment. The Portlight Live Webcam is running for much of this trip and you can view it and participate here:Portlight WEBCAM


We are beginning to identify needs in Eastern North Carolina in the aftermath of the recent torrential rains there. Many rural, isolated and under served areas will need our help. We are connecting with local officials and pastors who will be instrumental in helping us deliver relief. Our expectation is to deploy our relief trailer and, additionally, a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies within the next few days.

If you live in the area and know of specific needs, please post them here. Or WU mail us.

As usual, your support makes this work possible.

Thank you for continuing to make a difference in people's lives.

So nice to see the fall weather set in...goodbye to the 2010 season

Quoting NRAamy:
Eenie, meenie, miney, mo
Hurricane season is over

Hurricane season is not over

Let me clear it up for you. Hurricane season falls between 2 specific dates. The second of those 2 dates is in your future not your past. Ergo, hurricane season is not over. Put your eenie meenie coin away now, you have your response.

:-)

Quoting robert88:


Talking about the first 2 weeks for sure will be a bust. Link

I think they're right.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Its only October 2nd. You have no idea whether or not October's a bust or not.

..alot stated the begining if october as being quite active w/a forecast for another tc forming behind nicile which never hsppened,rather obvious that the first half will.not be as active as many experts forecast jist a week ago,including docmasters,no ones always right though this" busy beginning of oct w/a pattern favoring a tc landfalls in the se"...was a blown forecast biiiig time!!!!imo

SJ is up re conning the area and has found a lotta folks under water..4-5 ft deep.

So there is a need for help in these area's and we have found some to focus on.,,already seems.

We will be posting some info in the portlight Blog when SJ gets done today, more likely tomorrow after SJ, Paul and I have a phone conference.

SJ will have some pics uploaded here later tonight maybe as well.

Quoting asgolfr999:


Let me clear it up for you. Hurricane season falls between 2 specific dates. The second of those 2 dates is in your future not your past. Ergo, hurricane season is not over. Put your eenie meenie coin away now, you have your response.

:-)

Guess now you know, Amy. ;-)

The Atlantic hurricane season is officially from 1 June to 30 November. There is nothing magical in these dates, and hurricanes have occurred outside of these six months...

Link

Bottom line:
Per the calendar it isn't over.
As for storms, well, truth is, nobody actually "knows". Either side could be right.

hurricane season may be overe for the E PAC looks like they may end up with olny 7 name storms

Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season may be overe for the E PAC looks like they may end up with olny 7 name storms

Agreed. I'm very surprised that this year has been more inactive than 1999.

When was the last time that we had a very active season as we are having right now, and the E. Pacific season ended early with a small amount of storms? Anything I can correlate that to?

Quoting plywoodstatenative:
When was the last time that we had a very active season as we are having right now, and the E. Pacific season ended early with a small amount of storms? Anything I can correlate that to?

1995 and 1999.

in both of those years, what was the final setup in October for us. Is there any way to match up the wind shear and trough set ups with this year?

cloudy but no rain at Villa Fontana, Carolina, PR

Wow, I thought yesterday was ssssssssssssssslllllllllllllooooooooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Wow, I thought yesterday was ssssssssssssssslllllllllllllooooooooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

LOL! I had my comments set to show 100 per page to keep up. Guess I can lower that back down. They should make "6" an option. ;-)

Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Wow, I thought yesterday was ssssssssssssssslllllllllllllooooooooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

more like a winter blog with such low post numbers going on 6 hrs still not at 200

Quoting plywoodstatenative:
in both of those years, what was the final setup in October for us. Is there any way to match up the wind shear and trough set ups with this year?

1995:

Define "set up". If you are asking what the mean steering pattern was, then it should be noted that more storms moved equatorial (westward) during this period, a sharp contrast from the predominant recurvatures observed throughout August and September.

While I don't have any data on that period (since I don't know how to access it if such data exists, though I'm relatively certain it does), I would wager that this more westward propagation of storms was primarily due to an anomalous westward extension of the Bermuda High throughout the month. It is difficult to say this definitively though, as most of the observed storms during this period (Opal, Pablo, Roxanne, and Sebastien) either formed farther westward from tropical waves so that they effectively avoided recurvature, or they formed in the central/eastern Atlantic as low-latitude Cape Verde storms, but overall, I do believe that the high was stronger during October.

Since they stayed weaker, they tended to follow the low-level flow, thereby avoiding recurvature.

One storm, Noel, formed in September but persisted throughout the first week of October. Noel recurved harmlessly out to sea, but appears to be an outlier among the other observed storms during the month.

1999:

More or less the same, though there is a much smaller sample size during this year than in 1995, because only three storms were observed in October 1999: Irene, Jose, and Katrina.

All three of these storms impacted land, the first being Irene, which pummeled south Florida. Then there was Jose, which, though ultimately recurved, did not do so until it lashed the northern Leeward Islands.

Lastly, Katrina impacted Central America as a weak tropical storm. Katrina is not considered to be reflective of the overall upper air pattern for October 1999 though, because she was spawned off the western extent of a fronal zone, and thereby had no chance of recurvature.

All in all though, it appears that October 1999 had stronger troughing than was observed in October 1995.

In summary, it appears that in both those years, arbitrarily listed because both featured strong La Nina events (just like this year), the month of October featured a more westward propagation of storms compared to earlier in the season, which is noteworthy.

As far as vertical shear goes, in both the aforementioned years, it averaged well below average, and we can probably expect the same this year as well.

Quoting CaptnDan142:


LOL! I had my comments set to show 100 per page to keep up. Guess I can lower that back down. They should make "6" an option. ;-)

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
more like a winter blog with such low post numbers going on 6 hrs still not at 200

I had mine at 200, I can walk away for hours on end and not fall behind. I imagine it'll pick up this evening.

Against all odds both siblings are getting more spin as they approach the islands , the first one is already on top of the leewards.

Quoting PanhandleChuck:


I had mine at 200, I can walk away for hours on end and not fall behind. I imagine it'll pick up this evening.

Maybe. Sure didn't last night. I'm sure some are loving it - just not the ones that pay the bills. lol

Quoting WeatherfanPR:
cloudy but no rain at Villa Fontana, Carolina, PR

On the contrary here in the North west of PR is raining hard and thunders everywhere, lucky you!!

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
more like a winter blog with such low post numbers going on 6 hrs still not at 200

A few of our prolific bloggers are absent. That's part of it.

Quoting bappit:

A few of our prolific bloggers are absent. That's part of it.

I'm here. :P

Quoting Neapolitan:


The blog can definitely be childish at times. And those who use real science to forecast what might happen should never be open to ridicule, in my opinion. But those who pull baseless wishcasts out of thin air--that is, with absolutely nothing substantial to support what they write--do deserve to be laughed at. That's how a social organism works to keep the foolishness to a minimum.

Again, I'm not saying anyone's opinion should be squashed...but if someone wants to come on here and say, "My feeling is that three Cat 5's will make landfall in Tampa by October 15th", he or she needs to be willing to accept derision when those storms fail to materialize. By the same token, those proclaiming the season over here on October 2nd, while the Atlantic waters are still warm and deep and atmospheric conditons aren't unnecessarily hostile all over, deserves to be questioned as to his or her methodology...especially if that methodology is based on nothing more scientific than gazing into a Harry Potter crystal ball.

That's how science works, guys.

A bit stuffy in here. Open some windows, let in the crisp fall air coming down from up north.

Quoting cat5hurricane:
Thanks for update, Doc

Great avatar photo!

Ok, fine.....

I'm going with 47 1/2 and 56 2/3 chances.....

18N 63W.. light rain right now

Watup Amy.....Kori....Dan....and weekend crew!!

Quoting NRAamy:
Ok, fine.....

I'm going with 47 1/2 and 56 2/3 chances.....

Hippo math?

;-)

Quoting traumaboyy:
Watup Amy.....Kori....Dan....and weekend crew!!

Hiya Hiya

Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm here. :P

I think I found something interesting...Look at this loop. There is a good spin between Puerto Rico and the Domenican Republic...Link If you zoom on it ya cant miss it.

Quoting CaptnDan142:


Hippo math?

;-)

It's Amy, what else could it be?

Hola trauma y Captn.....

We had a cool lightning storm at 6 AM....no rain.... I watched the flashes out over the ocean.... Can't remember the last time that happened....

Hi Oakland!

:)

The blog is slow for this time of year and this is my opinion why:
Part of the problem is the all out assault certain bloggers have taken recently. Would anyone really fault Reed if he never showed up again? Some people make jokes and some are students, some are professional mets and some are smart enough to be if so desired. The main thing is that this is a community. We should all be more tolerant no matter what the other person adds to the blog. This blog has a huge population that is a sample of the real world. I certainly am not going to get along with everyone in here but I can skip their posts. Its ok if someone makes a joke about me. I can laugh at myself without "reporting" or "flagging".
CAN YOU?

NRAamy - Can I borrow one our your forks... I need to stick it in 97L, 'cause it looks done...

{{{Amy}}}

Quoting bappit:

A few of our prolific bloggers are absent. That's part of it.

I'm here, lurking as usual. We have a bit of a fall lull underway, but we might get something to watch later in the week. Till then, all's quiet on the blog front! In some ways, I kind of like it, since the clean out awhile ago, a large part of the blog was at times simply moronic. Most all of the posts at the present time are a nice read, just aren't very many of them!

Sure, Dak....just make sure you give it back asap..... I get the feeling I'm not through with it....

Quoting NRAamy:
Hola trauma y Captn.....

We had a cool lightning storm at 6 AM....no rain.... I watched the flashes out over the ocean.... Can't remember the last time that happened....

Kitty didn't think it was all that cool tho, eh? lol

Will do... Thanks.

Ohh can you at least wipe it off first?

JupiterFL - Sometimes this place reminds me of Junior High... I do agree with you. I may not agree with everyone here, but I don't let it affect me personally. I also don't go "after" people for their viewpoint either. (A certain annoying blogger excluded)