97L to spread heavy rains in Lesser Antilles; major flooding in North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:42 (GMT)

Share this Blog
3
+

A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L), centered about 400 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Sunday. These showers can be seen approaching the islands on Martinique radar this morning. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 97L, and the waters beneath are very warm, 29°C, but recent satellite imagery shows that 97L's heavy thunderstorms are limited and not well organized. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 5:51am EDT showed a moderate wind shift associated with 97L, but nothing close to a closed circulation. Top winds were around 30 - 35 mph. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, today through Monday, then decline. The ECMWF model is the only model currently showing significant development 97L in the next seven days. The model predicts 97L will be near Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday, with the storm developing into a tropical depression on Wednesday just north of Haiti, then moving northwards through the Turks and Caicos Islands and out to sea on Thursday. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, and has not tasked the Hurricane Hunters to fly into the storm over the next two days. 97L will move at about 10 mph through the islands on Sunday through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. Even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression, its slow motion may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba as it moves past.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Major flooding in northeastern North Carolina
Major flooding continues in northeastern North Carolina, where the Cashie River in Windsor is 5.4 feet over flood stage. North Carolina has been deluged by more than twenty inches of rain in some regions over the past week, due to tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Tropical Storm Nicole. Wilmington, NC set records this week for the heaviest 3-day, 4-day, and 5-day rainfall events in city history, and the month of September ended up as the second rainiest month ever recorded in the city. A remarkable 22.54" of rain fell on Wilmington during the 5-day period Sunday through Thursday. The previous record was 19.06", set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, with just 0.18" of rain falling during the first 25 days of September. Representatives from Portlight.org are on their way to the hardest-hit areas of North Carolina to beginning identifying needs in the wake of the flooding. Portlight expects to perform the first deployment of their new relief trailer within the next few days and send a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies. You can follow their progress via the live webcam on the Portlight truck.

Our new Weather Extreme blogger, Christopher C. Burt, has posted a comparison of the maximum rainfall totals in each state affected by Hurricane Floyd of 1999, and this weeks extreme rainfall event, which he dubs "Super-Rainstorm Nicole." The two storms were very similar in the amount of rain they dumped, and we are very fortunate that moderate drought conditions preceded the arrival of this week's storm, or else billions in damage would have resulted.


Figure 2. Rainfall for the 7-day period ending at 8am EDT this morning shows the remarkable accumulations that fell in association with the tropical moisture ahead of Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: NOAA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Disturbed weather has diminished in the Central Caribbean, where the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole are no longer kicking up significant thunderstorm activity. Several of the models are predicting the formation of a tropical depression in the Mid-Atlantic 6 - 8 days from now, in a location that would not be of any danger to land areas.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

Flooding Bristol Vermont (31337)
Flooding Bristol Vermont
Too Wet To Harvest Today (duck29)
Heavy rain and high winds for 2 days caused flash flooding in many areas of New York State
Too Wet To Harvest Today

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 481 - 431

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

Quoting Orcasystems:
Dark here... 5:23 am.. waiting for the golf to start.

10 C and Foggy.... brrr
too bad you live in the rust zone -- plenty fine here -fact you could golf this AM & surf this afternoon -
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
480. IKE
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
morning ike.even Bastardi admitted that his impact forecast for the conus was a bust, lol about time.wish some of the bloggers would do that.Well they will come back with the ace index being high.well maybe thats true but for the conus it was a joker.Maybe next time a lot of storms are predicted, some of the bloggers will not automatically assume that it means doom for the conus.And yes before its posted for the millionth time we know it was a rough season for Mexico and the Islands.Remember we are talking about the conus.Have a blessed Lords day.


What exactly did he say?

And I figured the lower 48 would get hit a few times this year with land-falling hurricanes based off of what I had read about the season before it started.

Glad it hasn't happened. Flooding has been a bigger issue this tropical season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
morning ike.even Bastardi admitted that his impact forecast for the conus was a bust, lol about time.wish some of the bloggers would do that.Well they will come back with the ace index being high.well maybe thats true but for the conus it was a joker.Maybe next time a lot of storms are predicted, some of the bloggers will not automatically assume that it means doom for the conus.And yes before its posted for the millionth time we know it was a rough season for Mexico and the Islands.Remember we are talking about the conus.Have a blessed Lords day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dark here... 5:23 am.. waiting for the golf to start.

10 C and Foggy.... brrr
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
477. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:


Morning Ike and Surfie :)


Suns up here.

Good morning Barrow,Alaska with 3 inches of snow on the ground and darkness a few weeks away...

Barrow, Alaska (Airport)
Updated: 24 min 50 sec ago
Overcast
28 °F
Overcast
Windchill: 18 °F
Humidity: 96%
Dew Point: 27 °F
Wind: 12 mph from the East
Pressure: 29.78 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1600 ft
Mostly Cloudy 2100 ft
Overcast 2700 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Snow Depth: 3.0 in
Elevation: 43 ft
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Morning...........



Morning Ike and Surfie :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
475. IKE
Morning...........

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:
15 more minutes :)
till what?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
15 more minutes until the Ryder Cup starts again :)

Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning IKE - getting a peek in here b/4 I hit the garden - lots of veggie work to get done - nice to be greeted by these cooler temps...but when i smell winter in the north wind I do get sad... I am a true child of summer

I got waves coming my way this afternoon : ) thanks to Mr. North wind.
AURASURF -M. Weaver
Sunday 7am UPDATER: Wow it is so nice out! There is a chance for a knee high LB wave at N County before dark but I don't think much more. The 1ft N line will be around this week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Feels like fall in the air
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
469. IKE
Talk about a road block.....60 knots of shear in the northern gulf and 80 knots off of the Carolina coast...



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SeALWx:

puerto ricans call themselves this
Ok, thanks. Looked it up in Dictionary online and it said no results.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
boriqueans Can you please tell me who this is ?
pricans i love their island surprised both areas of concern have only a 10 percent hopefully the first area stays out of the carib.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
boriqueans Can you please tell me who this is ?

puerto ricans call themselves this
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
465. IKE
Hurricane Opal...15 years later. The last significant hurricane to make landfall within one county of where I live. Fifteen years and counting. The next 7-10 days looks free of tropical activity here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
463. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting islander101010:
looks like the boriqueans are in for some heavy rain. seems as if the atlantic mdr basin is becoming more favorable
boriqueans Can you please tell me who this is ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
460. OGal
Good Morning John, following you today in North Carolina. Great pictures you took and put on Portlight Blog. Thanks for the caring and sharing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks like the boriqueans are in for some heavy rain. seems as if the atlantic basin is becoming more favorable
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
457. IKE
60.8 outside right now. Cold front passing through the area now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
456. IKE
Florida panhandle discussion.....

TONIGHT...THAT "FALL-LIKE" FEEL WILL ARRIVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS CAA CONTINUES ON A STEADY NORTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE LOWER
LEVELS BECOMING VERY DRY BY SUNSET...TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW
TEMPS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S OVER A WIDE EXPANSE OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW...THE CHILL
WILL EVEN REACH RIGHT DOWN TO THE COAST WHERE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
WILL BE COMMON.


MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY OCTOBER WILL BE THE RULE. SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL REMAIN UNDER
WELL DEFINED TROUGHING WITH THE ASSOCIATED COOL POOL HANGING AROUND
AS WELL. BOTH DAYS WILL START OUT RATHER COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO PUT THE
JACKETS AND SWEATERS AWAY FOR THE AFTERNOON...AS EXPECTING A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE 30 TO 35 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING TO THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.
EVEN WITH THIS LARGE SWING IN TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL STILL TOP
OUT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning all

Getting ready to get back on the road. Headed back to Vanceboro, NC where there was significant flooding, and then heading towards Windsor, NC. Join in via the webcam and chat!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES OVR THE
LEEWARDS AND THE ADJACENT ATLC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS IS FCST TO
MOVE TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND MAY
STILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THERE ARE TWO
MAIN CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ONE EAST OF THE LEEWARDS AND
ANOTHER ONE WEST OF MARTINIQUE. SURFACE OBS FROM BUOYS...SHIPS AND
LAND STATIONS SHOW THAT PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN OVR THE PAST SIX HOURS AND AN ASCAT PASS
AROUND 0113Z SHOWED WESTERLY WINDS IN THAT AREA SUGGESTING THAT A
BROAD WEAK SFC LOW MAY DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA. DEFINITELY...NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO SAY THAT A CLOSED CIRCULATION IS FORMING BUT
THIS AREA SEEMS THE ONE TO PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION AS MAJORITY OF
NCEP MEMBERS INDICATE SOMETHING DEVELOPING OUT OF THAT AREA IN THE
72-96 TIME FRAME.
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5589
Good morning. 97L is looking good.

Antilless Radar

Low level circulation?
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5589
Invest 97L : NHC-ATCF
2Oct 06amGMT - - 17.1n54.0w - - 25knots -- 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF
2Oct 12pmGMT - - 17.3n55.1w - - 25knots -- 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF
2Oct 06pmGMT - - 17.5n56.0w - - 25knots -- 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF
3Oct 12amGMT - - 17.6n57.0w - - 25knots -- 1008mb -- NHC-ATCF
3Oct 06amGMT - - 17.7n58.1w - - 25knots -- 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF

Copy&paste 17.1n54.0w-17.3n55.1w, 17.3n55.1w-17.5n56.0w, 17.5n56.0w-17.6n57.0w, 17.6n57.0w-17.7n58.1w, vqs, ngd, sxm, bgi, 17.7n58.1w-18.1n63.02w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24*hours.

* The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection of the heading averaged over the 6hours spanning the last two reported positions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
INVEST.25kts-1007mb-177N-581W
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5589
Quoting JLPR2:
Well I'm off!
Night all, also, so far this is a no show in PR, we are dry. :]



I've seen that happen a lot, actually. It's not that uncommon to have a busted forecast with regards to precipitation chances.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
448. JLPR2
Well I'm off!
Night all, also, so far this is a no show in PR, we are dry. :]

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
447. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


Impressive. You've learned a lot over time you've been on this site. Your time spent here certainly wasn't for naught. ;)


LOL!
Something has to stay in my brain after 3 years. XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
Rather abrupt change in the 850mb vort, 97L is taking over, I think we might see 97L organizing further today.
850mb


I got to add, organize very slowly since it is not vertically stacked.
500mb


Impressive. You've learned a lot over time you've been on this site. Your time spent here certainly wasn't for naught. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
445. JLPR2
Rather abrupt change in the 850mb vort, 97L is taking over, I think we might see 97L organizing further today.
850mb


I got to add, organize very slowly since it is not vertically stacked.
500mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
444. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Tropical Disturbance Summary
06:00 AM UTC October 3 2010
====================================

An area of convection (92W) located at 11.5N 114.7E or 340 NM east northeast of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows an area of broad cyclonic turning with flaring and unorganized convection. Upper level analysis indicates the system is located equatorward to the ridge axis in an area of upper level divergence and moderate vertical wind shear. The system is also tracking westward towards land, which should decrease the probability for development.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 10-15 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1005 MB. Due to the close proximity to land and the unorganized convection, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is DOWNGRADED TO POOR
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I updated my blog on North Texas weather and the Tropical Atlantic, please take a look and leave your comments, thanks Link

I start writing daily articles next week for "The Examiner", an online newspaper, I will be writing for the "Arlington (TX) Weather Examiner". I will provide a link to WU, so we can have new people come and visit us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
442. JLPR2
97L has another area of deep convection a little further south, what is it up to? XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
441. xcool
hmm 2 10% wow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
440. JLPR2
EURO initialized with a 1008mb low to the SE of PR, probably the one the CMC went nuts with, the GFS doesn't have it.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
439. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:




The CMC went into Doom mode. XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
438. JLPR2
2 10% circles, hmm... I was expecting a 20% for 97L XD

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
437. xcool


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
436. JLPR2
I'm down from this: to this:

That's good :]
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
435. xcool
im
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
434. JLPR2
97L coming into view here:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
433. JLPR2
Where is the night crew?
Drunk?
XD LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
432. xcool


not much. hurricane season over jk
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good night everyone. Lol still waiting for the rain here in the N Leewards.
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5589

Viewing: 481 - 431

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
50 °F
Pilvistä