97L to spread heavy rains in Lesser Antilles; major flooding in North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:42 (GMT)

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A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L), centered about 400 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Sunday. These showers can be seen approaching the islands on Martinique radar this morning. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 97L, and the waters beneath are very warm, 29°C, but recent satellite imagery shows that 97L's heavy thunderstorms are limited and not well organized. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 5:51am EDT showed a moderate wind shift associated with 97L, but nothing close to a closed circulation. Top winds were around 30 - 35 mph. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, today through Monday, then decline. The ECMWF model is the only model currently showing significant development 97L in the next seven days. The model predicts 97L will be near Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday, with the storm developing into a tropical depression on Wednesday just north of Haiti, then moving northwards through the Turks and Caicos Islands and out to sea on Thursday. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, and has not tasked the Hurricane Hunters to fly into the storm over the next two days. 97L will move at about 10 mph through the islands on Sunday through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. Even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression, its slow motion may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba as it moves past.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Major flooding in northeastern North Carolina
Major flooding continues in northeastern North Carolina, where the Cashie River in Windsor is 5.4 feet over flood stage. North Carolina has been deluged by more than twenty inches of rain in some regions over the past week, due to tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Tropical Storm Nicole. Wilmington, NC set records this week for the heaviest 3-day, 4-day, and 5-day rainfall events in city history, and the month of September ended up as the second rainiest month ever recorded in the city. A remarkable 22.54" of rain fell on Wilmington during the 5-day period Sunday through Thursday. The previous record was 19.06", set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, with just 0.18" of rain falling during the first 25 days of September. Representatives from Portlight.org are on their way to the hardest-hit areas of North Carolina to beginning identifying needs in the wake of the flooding. Portlight expects to perform the first deployment of their new relief trailer within the next few days and send a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies. You can follow their progress via the live webcam on the Portlight truck.

Our new Weather Extreme blogger, Christopher C. Burt, has posted a comparison of the maximum rainfall totals in each state affected by Hurricane Floyd of 1999, and this weeks extreme rainfall event, which he dubs "Super-Rainstorm Nicole." The two storms were very similar in the amount of rain they dumped, and we are very fortunate that moderate drought conditions preceded the arrival of this week's storm, or else billions in damage would have resulted.


Figure 2. Rainfall for the 7-day period ending at 8am EDT this morning shows the remarkable accumulations that fell in association with the tropical moisture ahead of Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: NOAA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Disturbed weather has diminished in the Central Caribbean, where the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole are no longer kicking up significant thunderstorm activity. Several of the models are predicting the formation of a tropical depression in the Mid-Atlantic 6 - 8 days from now, in a location that would not be of any danger to land areas.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

Flooding Bristol Vermont (31337)
Flooding Bristol Vermont
Too Wet To Harvest Today (duck29)
Heavy rain and high winds for 2 days caused flash flooding in many areas of New York State
Too Wet To Harvest Today

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Still waiting for the real weather from 97L here at 18N 63W! Lol
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5607
A nice cool fall morning in Upstate, only 47 right now. The weekend has been a welcome turnaround from the downpours we had earlier this week.
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Quoting Eugeniopr:


He koss his head compass, morning.


Must have been standing near a magnet, eh? Wouldn't ever want to ask this guy for directions.
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Quoting Grothar:


Ihr Akzent! Ach.

Nevermind ... BTW Today it's the 20th anniversary of German Reunification. And very nice warm and sunny weather, to boot!
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Quoting sailingallover:

missed that and the link takes me too the blog on the iPhone so hard to sort through what was it? Thanks in advance
It is a link about The Great Hurricane of 1780. A cat-5 that struck Barbados and the Lesser Antilles With winds estimated at over 200 mph. It killed over 27,000 people.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Someone's messing around with the intensities on 2010 hurricane season wiki page, since Earl & Igor are Cat 5s according to it.
Thats Major problem with the net. Anybody can post anything ANC if enough people see it be becomes history
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Quoting barbamz:


With German music. 99 Luftballons. Nena! Lol ...


Ihr Akzent! Ach.
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Quoting hydrus:
Good morning..Did you ever read the link I posted for you?....Link

missed that and the link takes me too the blog on the iPhone so hard to sort through what was it? Thanks in advance
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Someone's messing around with the intensities on 2010 hurricane season wiki page, since Earl & Igor are Cat 5s according to it.
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Getting a WSw wind in the Virgin passage. Either the area to the south is developing or strong convergence to the east of me
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Quoting germemiguel:
Perhaps a new invest soon on the 10N 40-45W.....


There should be. Haven't seen ASCAT though.
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Quoting Grothar:


Think he might have meant WEST? If they are moving East, how can they go into the Caribbean?


He koss his head compass, morning.
Member Since: 1.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 251
Quoting Portlight:
Live video from E North Carolina flood area
Link


With German music. 99 Luftballons. Nena! Lol ...
Edit: English version: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFNDjOPUAec&feature=fvst
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Ok, thanks. Looked it up in Dictionary online and it said no results.

You didn't find any results because, at least in Spanish, it's spelled "Boricuas".
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Perhaps a new invest soon on the 10N 40-45W.....

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Quoting kimoskee:
Met Service of Jamaica
October 03, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE…Broad Trough covers the central and western Caribbean.

Comment
The Trough continues to produce disorganised showers and thunderstorm activity, especially across western Jamaica and is expected to linger across the island. The possibility of Tropical Cyclone development still exists with this system, albeit a relatively low chance.

Maximum temperatures expected today:
Kingston…30 degrees Celsius.
Montego Bay…30 degrees Celsius.

24-HOURS FORECAST
This Morning… Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly across western parishes, cloudy elsewhere.
This Afternoon… Widespread showers and thunderstorms across the island.
Tonight…Cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms.

3-DAYS FORECAST (after tomorrow)
Mon…Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon.
Tue… Cloudy day. Periods of showers and thunderstorms over most of the island especially in the afternoon.
Wed… Widespread showers and thunderstorms over the island.

Regionally…The ITCZ moves further away but draws closer to the island later in the week. Areas of Low Pressure form over the Caribbean as the likelihood of Tropical Cyclones to develop from the Tropical Waves east of the Lesser Antilles remains moderate. Systems are progressively
moving east and should be within the Caribbean by midweek.


rar


Think he might have meant WEST? If they are moving East, how can they go into the Caribbean?
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Good Morning!
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Quoting sailingallover:
While the GFS has preformed Really well this year I just don't trust it on 97.
Not sure the ULL will keep the development of the souther part in check with the shear. I'm going with the ECMWF side of modeling and thinking ther is a stronger possibility of TS conditions in the virgins PR tonight than 10% so moving the boat to Culebra hopefuly for a party not two days in the mangroves
Good morning..Did you ever read the link I posted for you?....Link
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Met Service of Jamaica
October 03, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE…Broad Trough covers the central and western Caribbean.

Comment
The Trough continues to produce disorganised showers and thunderstorm activity, especially across western Jamaica and is expected to linger across the island. The possibility of Tropical Cyclone development still exists with this system, albeit a relatively low chance.

Maximum temperatures expected today:
Kingston…30 degrees Celsius.
Montego Bay…30 degrees Celsius.

24-HOURS FORECAST
This Morning… Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly across western parishes, cloudy elsewhere.
This Afternoon… Widespread showers and thunderstorms across the island.
Tonight…Cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms.

3-DAYS FORECAST (after tomorrow)
Mon…Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon.
Tue… Cloudy day. Periods of showers and thunderstorms over most of the island especially in the afternoon.
Wed… Widespread showers and thunderstorms over the island.

Regionally…The ITCZ moves further away but draws closer to the island later in the week. Areas of Low Pressure form over the Caribbean as the likelihood of Tropical Cyclones to develop from the Tropical Waves east of the Lesser Antilles remains moderate. Systems are progressively
moving east and should be within the Caribbean by midweek.

rar
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Quoting Grothar:


Thanks Orca, I finally made your map. I take back almost everything I said about you! LOL


Hmm I warned you about being nice... nice people worry me.

I am thoroughly enjoying watching the Ryder Cup this morning :)
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
While the GFS has preformed Really well this year I just don't trust it on 97.
Not sure the ULL will keep the development of the souther part in check with the shear. I'm going with the ECMWF side of modeling and thinking ther is a stronger possibility of TS conditions in the virgins PR tonight than 10% so moving the boat to Culebra hopefuly for a party not two days in the mangroves
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Quoting islander101010:
pricans i love their island surprised both areas of concern have only a 10 percent hopefully the first area stays out of the carib.


Thank you man we appreciate that and if you want to take a look go to Link
Member Since: 1.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 251
Fall even made it to South Florida. It was actually not hot out this morning. I wouldn't call it cool just yet, but comfortable.
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Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
morning ike.even Bastardi admitted that his impact forecast for the conus was a bust, lol about time.wish some of the bloggers would do that.Well they will come back with the ace index being high.well maybe thats true but for the conus it was a joker.Maybe next time a lot of storms are predicted, some of the bloggers will not automatically assume that it means doom for the conus.And yes before its posted for the millionth time we know it was a rough season for Mexico and the Islands.Remember we are talking about the conus.Have a blessed Lords day.


You forgot Canada and Bermuda as well.
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Quoting SeALWx:

Hey, I don't claim to be an expert on foreign spelling questions. I did, however, answer well enough to get credit on a Jeopardy show!


You're right on that. It's not many Americans that know that.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
15 more minutes until the Ryder Cup starts again :)

Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


Thanks Orca, I finally made your map. I take back almost everything I said about you! LOL
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Quoting weatherwart:


I'm just going to enjoy it while it lasts. You know we'll get a little bump again around mid-month, but I'm keeping my fingers crossed for no major storms. Keep those cold fronts coming!

I'm hereing ya. I even open the windows for the first time this morning. Gots to suck out all that summer stink the builds up in the house during the summer months. LOL Be good. I gots to go wife has me moving furniture around. joy joy Later
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Live video from E North Carolina flood area
Link
Member Since: 7.01.2009 Posts: 114 Comments: 412
Quoting severstorm:

Yes is there anything better than lower temps and nothing in the gulf or wc. Also got plenty of rain this year. been awhile for that to.everything is so green.


I'm just going to enjoy it while it lasts. You know we'll get a little bump again around mid-month, but I'm keeping my fingers crossed for no major storms. Keep those cold fronts coming!
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Quoting weatherwart:


Good morning. I'm near Spring Hill. Great weather, isn't it? I have a little bit of a low cloud deck right now, but it's moving out pretty quickly.

Yes is there anything better than lower temps and nothing in the gulf or wc. Also got plenty of rain this year. been awhile for that to.everything is so green.
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Quoting palmasdelrio:


It's "boricuas" or "borinqueños".

Hey, I don't claim to be an expert on foreign spelling questions. I did, however, answer well enough to get credit on a Jeopardy show!
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Quoting severstorm:

morning to everyone, yes it is to go into the upper 40's here tonight.Had 59 sat morning. Where you located weatherwart? Zephyrhills here.


Good morning. I'm near Spring Hill. Great weather, isn't it? I have a little bit of a low cloud deck right now, but it's moving out pretty quickly.
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PR Radar is back at least one frame is starting to loop.Link
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The problem all of you are having trouble with is... It's only October 3rd. Hurricane Season is not over, we have 2 more months. The USA is still at rick, a high risk then last month because of the troughs. Watch Levi's videos, he explains it all. Especially with La Nina's, we will have late season activity. I expect 3-5 more storms and one more major Hurricane with that, since the Caribbean waters is so darn warm. The USA unfortunately is still at a good risk for a landfalling Tropical System. Though they look to be in the clear for the next 7-10 days as Ike showed. After that, the shield may be broken.
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Quoting weatherwart:
Yes! Fall has come to WCtrl Fla.

Five day forecast:

85° F | 49° F
83° F | 50° F
83° F | 54° F
83° F | 54° F
83° F | 54° F

morning to everyone, yes it is to go into the upper 40's here tonight.Had 59 sat morning. Where you located weatherwart? Zephyrhills here.
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Quoting Cotillion:




'tis that time of year. That 986mb low comes by Tuesday about 30mb stronger.

At least for golf fans, the front is mostly moved away from Newport (SE Wales).


Hi Cotillion - that low pressure of 967 is top end of cat 2 hurricane, almost cat 3..... Hang on to your brolly!!!
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Yes! Fall has come to WCtrl Fla.

Five day forecast:

85° F | 49° F
83° F | 50° F
83° F | 54° F
83° F | 54° F
83° F | 54° F
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Quoting IKE:
Morning...........



Good Morning Ike, I always get interested at looking at the track of Earl, how it just jogged east after making it past 75W which pretty much put it back on it's original track. Imagine if it didn't jog east and kept going.. It would have hit the Carolinas and then scrape LI, possibly a second landfall on Cape Cod, MA. I do feel we have a few more storms to go, the trough pattern is strong, but does not help us if something were to form in the WC. I feel the Panhandle is possibly safe, but not the Peninsula.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Ok, thanks. Looked it up in Dictionary online and it said no results.


You probably won't find it anywhere because it is colloquial.
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Quoting SeALWx:

puerto ricans call themselves this


It's "boricuas" or "borinqueños".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:




'tis that time of year. That 986mb low comes by Tuesday about 30mb stronger.

At least for golf fans, the front is mostly moved away from Newport (SE Wales).
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Morning Aislinn - yes, that flooding has been a horror - shows there's lots of ways to be humbled by the weather......
YIKES - 45!!!! that would not make me happy one bit.
I don't like experiencing anything 60 degrees...
Well the garden & now the dog are calling.... gotta to listen to the dog....
take care
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Better picture of the lines starting to come in
Usually, Mister North Wind isn't my friend
but, as long as he keeps the chill out of his breath
I'll take what he's giving : )

AM photo/aurasurf
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Quoting IKE:


What exactly did he say?

And I figured the lower 48 would get hit a few times this year with land-falling hurricanes based off of what I had read about the season before it started.

Glad it hasn't happened. Flooding has been a bigger issue this tropical season.


He said that it has been a bust "to date" allowing room for future impact in my opinion.
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Morning Surfmom, Ike, Orca and everyone. Beautiful weather here and tonight is supposed to be about 45 degrees? That's 'real winter' temps for us. Wonder if we will really get it.

Saw a video of pumpkins floating down a river where they had been washed out with the flooding. Kind of strange to see.
Member Since: 22.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Quoting Orcasystems:


True... but its down there :)
I much prefer up here :)
then...NO CHEESE for your Whine - bawhahaha

your hide is soo thick no shark would waste his time : )
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A Good Day to ALL
my garden calls
Neptune's going to visit
this afternoon
so I must get the dirty work done
GOMEX this morning
flat now, but you can see where the swell will be coming in by the buoy - still fascinates me how it can change in several hours

photo: Gulfster
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Quoting surfmom:
too bad you live in the rust zone -- plenty fine here -fact you could golf this AM & surf this afternoon -


True... but its down there :)
I much prefer up here :)

and you know...I would never put myself onto a Sushi Platter for Sharks :)
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
morning ike.even Bastardi admitted that his impact forecast for the conus was a bust, lol about time.wish some of the bloggers would do that.Well they will come back with the ace index being high.well maybe thats true but for the conus it was a joker.Maybe next time a lot of storms are predicted, some of the bloggers will not automatically assume that it means doom for the conus.And yes before its posted for the millionth time we know it was a rough season for Mexico and the Islands.Remember we are talking about the conus.Have a blessed Lords day.


WE!! Do you have a mouse in your pocket? or do you believe this blog is only for US?
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Quoting Orcasystems:
Dark here... 5:23 am.. waiting for the golf to start.

10 C and Foggy.... brrr
too bad you live in the rust zone -- plenty fine here -fact you could golf this AM & surf this afternoon -
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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