97L to spread heavy rains in Lesser Antilles; major flooding in North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:42 (GMT)

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A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L), centered about 400 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Sunday. These showers can be seen approaching the islands on Martinique radar this morning. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 97L, and the waters beneath are very warm, 29°C, but recent satellite imagery shows that 97L's heavy thunderstorms are limited and not well organized. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 5:51am EDT showed a moderate wind shift associated with 97L, but nothing close to a closed circulation. Top winds were around 30 - 35 mph. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, today through Monday, then decline. The ECMWF model is the only model currently showing significant development 97L in the next seven days. The model predicts 97L will be near Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday, with the storm developing into a tropical depression on Wednesday just north of Haiti, then moving northwards through the Turks and Caicos Islands and out to sea on Thursday. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, and has not tasked the Hurricane Hunters to fly into the storm over the next two days. 97L will move at about 10 mph through the islands on Sunday through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. Even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression, its slow motion may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba as it moves past.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Major flooding in northeastern North Carolina
Major flooding continues in northeastern North Carolina, where the Cashie River in Windsor is 5.4 feet over flood stage. North Carolina has been deluged by more than twenty inches of rain in some regions over the past week, due to tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Tropical Storm Nicole. Wilmington, NC set records this week for the heaviest 3-day, 4-day, and 5-day rainfall events in city history, and the month of September ended up as the second rainiest month ever recorded in the city. A remarkable 22.54" of rain fell on Wilmington during the 5-day period Sunday through Thursday. The previous record was 19.06", set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, with just 0.18" of rain falling during the first 25 days of September. Representatives from Portlight.org are on their way to the hardest-hit areas of North Carolina to beginning identifying needs in the wake of the flooding. Portlight expects to perform the first deployment of their new relief trailer within the next few days and send a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies. You can follow their progress via the live webcam on the Portlight truck.

Our new Weather Extreme blogger, Christopher C. Burt, has posted a comparison of the maximum rainfall totals in each state affected by Hurricane Floyd of 1999, and this weeks extreme rainfall event, which he dubs "Super-Rainstorm Nicole." The two storms were very similar in the amount of rain they dumped, and we are very fortunate that moderate drought conditions preceded the arrival of this week's storm, or else billions in damage would have resulted.


Figure 2. Rainfall for the 7-day period ending at 8am EDT this morning shows the remarkable accumulations that fell in association with the tropical moisture ahead of Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: NOAA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Disturbed weather has diminished in the Central Caribbean, where the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole are no longer kicking up significant thunderstorm activity. Several of the models are predicting the formation of a tropical depression in the Mid-Atlantic 6 - 8 days from now, in a location that would not be of any danger to land areas.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

Flooding Bristol Vermont (31337)
Flooding Bristol Vermont
Too Wet To Harvest Today (duck29)
Heavy rain and high winds for 2 days caused flash flooding in many areas of New York State
Too Wet To Harvest Today

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Jeez Leweez, 1933 was active, can I say The Yr. W/O a Cape Verde Storm!

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I hope the people have extra boats.
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The NationalSnow&IceDataCenter called the melt season 9days too early.
JAXA sea ice area (daily chart)

DMI sea ice extent (daily chart)
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JAXA sea ice extent chart

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - NSIDC daily sea ice extent chart
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(Sorry about distortion on the NSIDC charts, hadda squeeze 'em to make the charts easily comparable)

2010 came so close to becoming 2nd lowest with its minimum sea-ice extent that 2008 and 2010 will be inextricably intertwined : ie they'll move as a pair in the record books.
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Portlight Disaster Relief


We are headed up to eastern North Carolina right now to begin identifying communities that are a good fit for the Portlight mission. Specific information and contacts have been hard to come by today, but being in the area today should make things much easier.

We are also prepared to assist in anyway we can while we are also carrying out an assessment. The Portlight Live Webcam is running for much of this trip and you can view it and participate here:Portlight WEBCAM


We are beginning to identify needs in Eastern North Carolina in the aftermath of the recent torrential rains there. Many rural, isolated and under served areas will need our help. We are connecting with local officials and pastors who will be instrumental in helping us deliver relief. Our expectation is to deploy our relief trailer and, additionally, a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies within the next few days.

If you live in the area and know of specific needs, please post them here. Or WU mail us.

As usual, your support makes this work possible.

Thank you for continuing to make a difference in people's lives.
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Believe it or not of the 16 cyclones that form including TD 2 & TD 5, 10 of those have been recorded as making lanfall & so far Alex caused the most deaths at 33. Karl caused the most damage at 3.9 million. Earl impacted more land areas (Aug. 30-Sept. 4) from the Northern Leeward Islands all the way up along the Eastern Seaboard.
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Quoting srada:


Thanks Im sure they appreciate that..I just hope people wont forget about them..seems like it will get worse before it gets better..


When disasters are fresh, people all notice and help comes in. But as all people who have been in disasters know, sadly the help is needed far longer than it is generally provided.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
season is not over but it is winding down and will continue to do so even faster once we reach and pass the secondary oct peak and as we progress into the 59 days that remain looks like next 10 to 15 days will be quiet


ECMWF isn't the only model predicting development.

12z GFS


00z GGEM (CMC)


00z UKMET
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Wow, Srada. My heart goes out to the people there.


Thanks Im sure they appreciate that..I just hope people wont forget about them..seems like it will get worse before it gets better..
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Those stating unequivocally today that the season is over are engaging in the exact same type of non-scientific wishcasting that those calling for a 30-storm season back in April were. In both cases, there's a lack of meteorological/climatological data to support such extreme hypotheses.

However...just as those early-season wishcasters freely fantasized here in this forum, so too should the "This Season Is Officially Over" crowd. Just remember, though: a prediction based solely on one's hopes and/or fears is not an actual weather forecast; it's no more valid than a simple guess. That isn't to say that wishcasts never come true, because they do...but when they don't, the wishcaster must be prepared for the ridicule that, almost inevitably, follows. :-)


Neapolitan,
I don't count the season over until it's December timeframe. Things can change, weather and mother nature do what they want.
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season is not over but it is winding down and will continue to do so even faster once we reach and pass the secondary oct peak and as we progress into the 59 days that remain looks like next 10 to 15 days will be quiet
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Quoting srada:
Pictures of Pender county..neighbor of New Hanover County (Wilmington)..the rivers are flooding in several counties now..and for those who debunked the myth of ants..check out one of the pictures in the gallery of the fire ants..

Link


Wow, Srada. My heart goes out to the people there.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Those stating unequivocally today that the season is over are engaging in the exact same type of non-scientific wishcasting that those calling for a 30-storm season back in April were. In both cases, there's a lack of meteorological/climatological data to support such extreme hypotheses.

However...just as those early-season wishcasters freely fantasized here in this forum, so too should the "This Season Is Officially Over" crowd. Just remember, though: a prediction based solely on one's hopes and/or fears is not an actual weather forecast; it's no more valid than a simple guess. That isn't to say that wishcasts never come true, because they do...but when they don't, the wishcaster must be prepared for the ridicule that, almost inevitably, follows. :-)


And of course, in the na-na-na-boo-boo world of this blog, ridicule and keeping score as to who is right and wrong and wishing and downing the season is at least as important as what the weather is actually doing.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Yeah, it sure is pleasant & refreshing, & can catch you off guard this time of year! Hot coffee is the thing this morning.

I forgot to set the thermostat late nite before bed so needless to say my sleep was a little interupted!


I had my window a/c on and a fan blowing it from the a/c onto me all night. I slept like a log. LOVE it when it's freezing cold to sleep.
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Pictures of Pender county..neighbor of New Hanover County (Wilmington)..the rivers are flooding in several counties now..and for those who debunked the myth of ants..check out one of the pictures in the gallery of the fire ants..

Link
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Good cool, crisp autumn morning to you too. Just lovin' the weather!


Oh yes! Had to be out the door before seven this morning to set up for a volleyball tournament for my daughters school team. Walked out the door in a tshirt and had to run back in for a denim shirt. It was 55 degrees! And the most beautiful deep blue sky without a single cloud today.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

I am by no means throwing in the towel just yet on the 2010 season, but I don't see the current monsoonal pattern in the Carib & the robust troughs digging in the SE CONUS letting up anytime soon even beyond 10 days. Again, this season has been unusually active for August & Sept. However, just because a season may start out active or have an active period in there does not necessarily mean that the ENTIRE season (June 1st - Nov 30th) will mirror that.

Even taking into account the La Nina pattern, I really think October will be slow, but perhaps I think we'll see a couple November stragglers appear.

I think the action will pick up around the 20th of this month, that would be the 2nd peak of climatology. I see 97L is recording west winds now, but no closed center yet, It will probably be like another Chris in 06.
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Those stating unequivocally today that the season is over are engaging in the exact same type of non-scientific wishcasting that those calling for a 30-storm season back in April were. In both cases, there's a lack of meteorological/climatological data to support such extreme hypotheses.

However...just as those early-season wishcasters freely fantasized here in this forum, so too should the "This Season Is Officially Over" crowd. Just remember, though: a prediction based solely on one's hopes and/or fears is not an actual weather forecast; it's no more valid than a simple guess. That isn't to say that wishcasts never come true, because they do...but when they don't, the wishcaster must be prepared for the ridicule that, almost inevitably, follows. :-)
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13304
Good morning, everyone. Just checking in. I love shear at this time of year in the GOMEX and across the south.
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97L its under attack from all angles,couple of troughs from the north and east, siamese sister trying to take the energy...let see if she/he could make it through the day...doubt it!
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Looks like that trough over the NE US has nosed all the way down into the SW Caribbean Seam temporarily quieting things down there.

97L looks like shear is keeping it in check, it may become the "O" storm, but regardless of that the Northern Lesser Antilles is in for some good rains with possible flooding and strong squally winds in the stronger showers and thunderstorms.

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In terms of the caribbean the general pattern for this season has been for troughing in the eastern US and western Atlantic and ridging from NE Mexico into the southern Plains which would tend to keep any W. Caribbean system either moving straight west into central America or curving sharply E/NE into the western Atlantic. I see no reason why we cant get 2-3 more named storms.

Models though are relatively quiet for the next 10 days or so.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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