97L to spread heavy rains in Lesser Antilles; major flooding in North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:42 (GMT)

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A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L), centered about 400 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Sunday. These showers can be seen approaching the islands on Martinique radar this morning. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 97L, and the waters beneath are very warm, 29°C, but recent satellite imagery shows that 97L's heavy thunderstorms are limited and not well organized. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 5:51am EDT showed a moderate wind shift associated with 97L, but nothing close to a closed circulation. Top winds were around 30 - 35 mph. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, today through Monday, then decline. The ECMWF model is the only model currently showing significant development 97L in the next seven days. The model predicts 97L will be near Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday, with the storm developing into a tropical depression on Wednesday just north of Haiti, then moving northwards through the Turks and Caicos Islands and out to sea on Thursday. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, and has not tasked the Hurricane Hunters to fly into the storm over the next two days. 97L will move at about 10 mph through the islands on Sunday through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. Even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression, its slow motion may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba as it moves past.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Major flooding in northeastern North Carolina
Major flooding continues in northeastern North Carolina, where the Cashie River in Windsor is 5.4 feet over flood stage. North Carolina has been deluged by more than twenty inches of rain in some regions over the past week, due to tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Tropical Storm Nicole. Wilmington, NC set records this week for the heaviest 3-day, 4-day, and 5-day rainfall events in city history, and the month of September ended up as the second rainiest month ever recorded in the city. A remarkable 22.54" of rain fell on Wilmington during the 5-day period Sunday through Thursday. The previous record was 19.06", set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, with just 0.18" of rain falling during the first 25 days of September. Representatives from Portlight.org are on their way to the hardest-hit areas of North Carolina to beginning identifying needs in the wake of the flooding. Portlight expects to perform the first deployment of their new relief trailer within the next few days and send a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies. You can follow their progress via the live webcam on the Portlight truck.

Our new Weather Extreme blogger, Christopher C. Burt, has posted a comparison of the maximum rainfall totals in each state affected by Hurricane Floyd of 1999, and this weeks extreme rainfall event, which he dubs "Super-Rainstorm Nicole." The two storms were very similar in the amount of rain they dumped, and we are very fortunate that moderate drought conditions preceded the arrival of this week's storm, or else billions in damage would have resulted.


Figure 2. Rainfall for the 7-day period ending at 8am EDT this morning shows the remarkable accumulations that fell in association with the tropical moisture ahead of Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: NOAA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Disturbed weather has diminished in the Central Caribbean, where the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole are no longer kicking up significant thunderstorm activity. Several of the models are predicting the formation of a tropical depression in the Mid-Atlantic 6 - 8 days from now, in a location that would not be of any danger to land areas.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

Flooding Bristol Vermont (31337)
Flooding Bristol Vermont
Too Wet To Harvest Today (duck29)
Heavy rain and high winds for 2 days caused flash flooding in many areas of New York State
Too Wet To Harvest Today

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97L is pretty much poof for the time being....
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There's no cyclonic development. Its just a mass of convection moving west, WNW. There are some centers seen, for example there's one over the leeward islands, but it isn't at the surface and its void of convection.
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN

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Wow blog has been pretty darn dead lately. Raining quite a bit here in northern PR. Heavy thunderstorms passing over right now

97L, as I've stated before, shouldn't be anything of importance except for rains, at least while it passes north of PR.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
vorticity is good , but all odds are against its development, we'll see.
Member Since: 31.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I feel like I'm talking to a wall...


welcome :)
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
but like always they are just guidance nothing more till something gets going on the surface


But they've got every storm this year when they have consensus.. at least in the idea that the storm will form. Beyond that it is again.. guesswork.
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I feel like I'm talking to a wall...
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Here's another reason why activity stopped...MJO going around the world:

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Yup...We are in a tropical lull. Should last about two weeks, then more named storms:

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Went back to Aug. 2006's blog during Ernesto. People say the blog has changed.. the blog to me has changed very little in the last 4 years.

And your right.. this is like looking into a crystal ball. Mostly its guesswork. Not an exact science.


yeah, a few weeks ago, I went back to when Katrina made landfall...Sad...I saw your post too.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


ECMWF isn't the only model predicting development.

12z GFS


00z GGEM (CMC)


00z UKMET
but like always they are just guidance nothing more till something gets going on the surface
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I do not believe any season before 2005 was as active as that season.

We're running out of time to see it again too...Only have abou the next 15 years...
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Quoting Neapolitan:


The blog can definitely be childish at times. And those who use real science to forecast what might happen should never be open to ridicule, in my opinion. But those who pull baseless wishcasts out of thin air--that is, with absolutely nothing substantial to support what they write--do deserve to be laughed at. That's how a social organism works to keep the foolishness to a minimum.

Again, I'm not saying anyone's opinion should be squashed...but if someone wants to come on here and say, "My feeling is that three Cat 5's will make landfall in Tampa by October 15th", he or she needs to be willing to accept derision when those storms fail to materialize. By the same token, those proclaiming the season over here on October 2nd, while the Atlantic waters are still warm and deep and atmospheric conditons aren't unnecessarily hostile all over, deserves to be questioned as to his or her methodology...especially if that methodology is based on nothing more scientific than gazing into a Harry Potter crystal ball.

That's how science works, guys.


Went back to Aug. 2006's blog during Ernesto. People say the blog has changed.. the blog to me has changed very little in the last 4 years.

And your right.. this is like looking into a crystal ball. Mostly its guesswork. Not an exact science.
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Quoting whepton3:


And of course, in the na-na-na-boo-boo world of this blog, ridicule and keeping score as to who is right and wrong and wishing and downing the season is at least as important as what the weather is actually doing.


The blog can definitely be childish at times. And those who use real science to forecast what might happen should never be open to ridicule, in my opinion. But those who pull baseless wishcasts out of thin air--that is, with absolutely nothing substantial to support what they write--do deserve to be laughed at. That's how a social organism works to keep the foolishness to a minimum.

Again, I'm not saying anyone's opinion should be squashed...but if someone wants to come on here and say, "My feeling is that three Cat 5's will make landfall in Tampa by October 15th", he or she needs to be willing to accept derision when those storms fail to materialize. By the same token, those proclaiming the season over here on October 2nd, while the Atlantic waters are still warm and deep and atmospheric conditons aren't unnecessarily hostile all over, deserves to be questioned as to his or her methodology...especially if that methodology is based on nothing more scientific than gazing into a Harry Potter crystal ball.

That's how science works, guys.
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13275
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Almost sounds like we need a trailer to pull with clothes, etc.


Yup....that's one thing they're pretty sure to need...
Member Since: 7.01.2009 Posts: 114 Comments: 412
Quoting Portlight:


It is an almost certain bet that none of these folks did.


Almost sounds like we need a trailer to pull with clothes, etc.
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Quoting Portlight:


It is an almost certain bet that none of these folks did.


How sad and devastating. I was afraid you would say that.
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Quoting whepton3:


And of course, in the na-na-na-boo-boo world of this blog, ridicule and keeping score as to who is right and wrong and wishing and downing the season is at least as important as what the weather is actually doing.


Well put!
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Oh no! I hope they had renters insurance.


It is an almost certain bet that none of these folks did.
Member Since: 7.01.2009 Posts: 114 Comments: 412
Quoting Portlight:
We just visited an apartment complex from which 40 families will be displaced due to flooding, as the landlord had no flood insurance.


Oh no! I hope they had renters insurance.
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26. GTcooliebai 16:31 GMT le 02 octobre 2010

I think you forget that Igor strike Newfoundland for at least 100 million.
To that you must add the effect on Hibernia oil field...
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We just visited an apartment complex from which 40 families will be displaced due to flooding, as the landlord had no flood insurance.
Member Since: 7.01.2009 Posts: 114 Comments: 412
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Here's something interesting. This is the 1936 Atlantic hurricane season.. do the majority of the tracks look familiar?






Wow, yes Alex, Bonnie (a little north of the exact lanfall spot), Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Hermine, Igor, and Karl. I forgot where Colin form, don't see any similarities to Nicole, Lisa, Julia, or Gaston. Also another year where nothing formed off Cape Verde...interested if that was the trend back there, but what rainmaker said was a good point we may not have had satellites that went that far out.
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Quoting Rainwalker:


Do not get me wrong, but was'nt that before we had satellite, which means one or more of those storms could have formed further out???


1887 and 1933 were probably both more active than 2005.
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I think it was Tropical Storm 9:



It did not cause significant effects on land.
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Here's something interesting. This is the 1936 Atlantic hurricane season.. do the majority of the tracks look familiar?




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Quoting cat5hurricane:
21 named storms and not one single CV originated. Wow.


Do not get me wrong, but was'nt that before we had satellite, which means one or more of those storms could have formed further out???
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Good afternoon.

I posted this morning that the feature in the Eastern Caribbean should be watched as it progresses to the West. The ASCAT pass caught a good piece of it and there appears to be a fairly well defined surface low with SW winds on the South side.

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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Good note. I guess an 'active' season doesn't always equate to a 'destructive' season.

Yep imagine if that would have been switched around to read... Of the 21 storms only 1 affected land at some point in its lifetime
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Quoting Patrap:
Portlight Disaster Relief


We are headed up to eastern North Carolina right now to begin identifying communities that are a good fit for the Portlight mission. Specific information and contacts have been hard to come by today, but being in the area today should make things much easier.

We are also prepared to assist in anyway we can while we are also carrying out an assessment. The Portlight Live Webcam is running for much of this trip and you can view it and participate here:Portlight WEBCAM


We are beginning to identify needs in Eastern North Carolina in the aftermath of the recent torrential rains there. Many rural, isolated and under served areas will need our help. We are connecting with local officials and pastors who will be instrumental in helping us deliver relief. Our expectation is to deploy our relief trailer and, additionally, a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies within the next few days.

If you live in the area and know of specific needs, please post them here. Or WU mail us.

As usual, your support makes this work possible.

Thank you for continuing to make a difference in people's lives.


Thanks to all who contribute their time and Financial Assistance to Portlight!! From someone who is in eastern NC..THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Jeez Leweez, 1933 was active, can I say The Yr. W/O a Cape Verde Storm!



All but one of the 21 known storms affected land at some point during their lifetimes.
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Quoting Patrap:
Portlight Disaster Relief


We are headed up to eastern North Carolina right now to begin identifying communities that are a good fit for the Portlight mission. Specific information and contacts have been hard to come by today, but being in the area today should make things much easier.

We are also prepared to assist in anyway we can while we are also carrying out an assessment. The Portlight Live Webcam is running for much of this trip and you can view it and participate here:Portlight WEBCAM


We are beginning to identify needs in Eastern North Carolina in the aftermath of the recent torrential rains there. Many rural, isolated and under served areas will need our help. We are connecting with local officials and pastors who will be instrumental in helping us deliver relief. Our expectation is to deploy our relief trailer and, additionally, a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies within the next few days.

If you live in the area and know of specific needs, please post them here. Or WU mail us.

As usual, your support makes this work possible.

Thank you for continuing to make a difference in people's lives.


Bless you, Pat and all the others helping you.
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Jeez Leweez, 1933 was active, can I say The Yr. W/O a Cape Verde Storm!

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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