97L to spread heavy rains in Lesser Antilles; major flooding in North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2. lokakuuta 2010 klo 15:42 (GMT)

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A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L), centered about 400 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Sunday. These showers can be seen approaching the islands on Martinique radar this morning. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 97L, and the waters beneath are very warm, 29°C, but recent satellite imagery shows that 97L's heavy thunderstorms are limited and not well organized. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 5:51am EDT showed a moderate wind shift associated with 97L, but nothing close to a closed circulation. Top winds were around 30 - 35 mph. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, today through Monday, then decline. The ECMWF model is the only model currently showing significant development 97L in the next seven days. The model predicts 97L will be near Puerto Rico on Monday, the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, and Haiti on Wednesday, with the storm developing into a tropical depression on Wednesday just north of Haiti, then moving northwards through the Turks and Caicos Islands and out to sea on Thursday. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, and has not tasked the Hurricane Hunters to fly into the storm over the next two days. 97L will move at about 10 mph through the islands on Sunday through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. Even if 97L does not develop into a tropical depression, its slow motion may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba as it moves past.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Major flooding in northeastern North Carolina
Major flooding continues in northeastern North Carolina, where the Cashie River in Windsor is 5.4 feet over flood stage. North Carolina has been deluged by more than twenty inches of rain in some regions over the past week, due to tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Tropical Storm Nicole. Wilmington, NC set records this week for the heaviest 3-day, 4-day, and 5-day rainfall events in city history, and the month of September ended up as the second rainiest month ever recorded in the city. A remarkable 22.54" of rain fell on Wilmington during the 5-day period Sunday through Thursday. The previous record was 19.06", set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, with just 0.18" of rain falling during the first 25 days of September. Representatives from Portlight.org are on their way to the hardest-hit areas of North Carolina to beginning identifying needs in the wake of the flooding. Portlight expects to perform the first deployment of their new relief trailer within the next few days and send a truck loaded with water, food and personal hygiene supplies. You can follow their progress via the live webcam on the Portlight truck.

Our new Weather Extreme blogger, Christopher C. Burt, has posted a comparison of the maximum rainfall totals in each state affected by Hurricane Floyd of 1999, and this weeks extreme rainfall event, which he dubs "Super-Rainstorm Nicole." The two storms were very similar in the amount of rain they dumped, and we are very fortunate that moderate drought conditions preceded the arrival of this week's storm, or else billions in damage would have resulted.


Figure 2. Rainfall for the 7-day period ending at 8am EDT this morning shows the remarkable accumulations that fell in association with the tropical moisture ahead of Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: NOAA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Disturbed weather has diminished in the Central Caribbean, where the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole are no longer kicking up significant thunderstorm activity. Several of the models are predicting the formation of a tropical depression in the Mid-Atlantic 6 - 8 days from now, in a location that would not be of any danger to land areas.

Next update
I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

Flooding Bristol Vermont (31337)
Flooding Bristol Vermont
Too Wet To Harvest Today (duck29)
Heavy rain and high winds for 2 days caused flash flooding in many areas of New York State
Too Wet To Harvest Today

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The forecast for rains tonight, sunday, monday and tuesday for Puerto Rico are very aggresive and goes from 90% to 100%. We will see if that verifies or not.
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Quoting robert88:
The experts really blew the updated October forecast. Calling for above average amounts the first 2 weeks of October is surely not going to happen. We are starting to see more shear out there setting in and it's been a while since we have seen it this concentrated. I think we will see 2 or 3 more weak TS's before the season is over with. The chances of seeing another hurricane are very slim at this point. My crystal ball says the US gets spared and never gets 1 landfall from a hurricane. That would be quite amazing with the ACE #'s we have had.


Its only October 2nd. You have no idea whether or not October's a bust or not.
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The experts really blew the updated October forecast. Calling for above average amounts the first 2 weeks of October is surely not going to happen. We are starting to see more shear out there setting in and it's been a while since we have seen it this concentrated. I think we will see at least 2 or 3 more weak TS's before the season is over with. The chances of seeing another hurricane are very slim at this point. My crystal ball says the US gets spared and never gets 1 landfall from a hurricane. That would be quite amazing with the ACE #'s we have had.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Here's something interesting. This is the 1936 Atlantic hurricane season.. do the majority of the tracks look familiar?






Good catch! This is an analogy year I hadn't heard of. Seems the overall steering patterns were the same. i.e. No east coast landfalls but one close call, lots of mexico landfalls.


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123. srada
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Oh yeah! lol. I don't know...totally forgot about that though.

Gonna have to find out...


I betcha he didnt even say anything about it..he got me so nervous I had to call my NWS and find out when he posted the video..
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


We are quite apparently thinking of very different timeframes.


Right.
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120. srada
So does anyone know if Joe B. recanted his doom forecast of the hurricane that was supposed to hit NC and New England earlier this week that the NHC blew their forecast on? I mean he even made a video stating so..
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yes, the fact there probably wont be a huge cold front.

BTW, that next week guess got us Earl, Julia, Danielle, and Igor.


We are quite apparently thinking of very different timeframes.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
So, is hurricane season pretty much over.....just seems to be....
Quoting TexasHurricane:
So, is hurricane season pretty much over.....just seems to be....


Here’s Doc. Master’s opinion for the remainder of the 2010 hurricane seasons,

October hurricane outlook
October is here, and it is time to take stock of where we stand and how far we have to go before hurricane season is over. The beginning of October traditionally marks the two-thirds point of hurricane season; approximately one-third of all hurricanes and 28% of named storms occur after October 1. Tropical Storm Nicole brought us up to fourteen named storms for the year, and I expect about 4 - 5 more named storms this year with 2 - 3 of these being hurricanes. That would add up to 18 - 19 named storms for the season, putting 2010 in 3rd - 5th place all-time for most named storms. Since record keeping began in 1851, only four seasons have finished with more than eighteen named storms. These seasons were 2005 (28 named storms, with the 17th named storm, Rita, occurring by October 1); 1933 (21 named storms, with the 18th named storm occurring by October 1;) 1995 (19 named storms, with the 15th named storm, Opal, occurring by October 1;) and 1887 (19 named storms, with the 10th named storm occurring by October 1.) The most likely time to get activity is during the first two weeks of October. There are still two weeks of peak hurricane season left before the activity traditionally begins to decline steeply (Figure 2.) Given the record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic this fall, the presence of La Niña in the Eastern Pacific keeping wind shear lower than average, and the observed increase in late-season activity in recent decades, I expect this year's peak portion of hurricane season will last until the end of October. I predict three named storms, two hurricanes, and one intense hurricane will form in the Atlantic this month, with two named storms and one hurricane occurring in November - December, making 2010 as the third busiest Atlantic hurricane season of all-time.

If your opinion differs, please provide your supporting analysis.
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


Yes, the models are pretty much in agreement. But it's the dreaded 'next week' scenario again, isn't it? I'm just thinking back to before Nicole when the models (mostly) all agreed that we would see N, O, and P within a week.

Obviously, that was then and this is now. Is something different that makes it more likely that they are right this time?


Yes, the fact there probably wont be a huge cold front.

BTW, that next week guess got us Earl, Julia, Danielle, and Igor.

Nicole was interesting, the models predicted it would form but a lot said it would merge with a front in the keys.. sure enough it did.
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I'm back, from an aborted attempt at mowing some grass.
Got fed-up with the motor, and went and got a new one...
This new one has all the Most Modern Attachments, like an Exhaust Muffler, a recoil starter-cord, an air-filter, and a 'turn-off' switch....

Those atatchments were gradually eliminated from the old one, and it had become a pretty 'stripped-down' version....
But the thing was burning oil and fouling the plug.

Going to see if I can get the wife excited, to the point where she wants to try it out.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


No, no, no.

We've still got 3-4 storms that will probably form. The models are saying one might form next week. The ECMWF and the CMC particularly.


Yes, the models are pretty much in agreement. But it's the dreaded 'next week' scenario again, isn't it? I'm just thinking back to before Nicole when the models (mostly) all agreed that we would see N, O, and P within a week.

Obviously, that was then and this is now. Is something different that makes it more likely that they are right this time?
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We've got anywhere from 2 to 4, left, I'd suspect.

Well beyond the peak, but still a bit to go, yet.
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting TexasHurricane:
So, is hurricane season pretty much over.....just seems to be....

Just a lull in the action, I suspect it will be another 6-7 named storms with 4 becoming hurricanes and 2 majors, JMO.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:

way to wake the blog up, expect to be quoted about 30 times stating how wrong you are and that you're a troll coming up in 10...9....8....7....6.....5.....


haha, I am not a troll. Just hasn't seem to be a lot of activity going on in the tropics, so I was just thinking it may be winding down.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
So, is hurricane season pretty much over.....just seems to be....


No, no, no.

We've still got 3-4 storms that will probably form. The models are saying one might form next week. The ECMWF and the CMC particularly.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
So, is hurricane season pretty much over.....just seems to be....

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I'm sorry, the hurricane season is not over.
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5605
So, is hurricane season pretty much over.....just seems to be....
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12z ECMWF.. TS Otto.
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Still good model support on a storm forming next week.
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97L is DOOM
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Seems to be what happened in 2005, in terms of ACE anyway.


Yes, tongue was firmly planted in cheek, especially when combined with the next sentence. :)
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting Cotillion:


Well, if you're taking it by a storm by storm basis, then October and November storms are more likely to impact land due to the usual region of cyclogenesis in these months (the Caribbean) compared to September.



If not, it'd be close.



A lull in early October before a secondary peak in middle to late October, you say?

Because that's never happened before...

Told you all weeks ago that DJ caused a 'storm whisperer' trick of his own with the copious postings of 'The Chart'...


Seems to be what happened in 2005, in terms of ACE anyway.
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Here at 18N 63W still not much going on despite satellite appearence.
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5605
Quoting cat5hurricane:


Looks like 97L's centre is trying to reform near 16N, 56W. The TUTT-like trough left over from Nicole's remnants is creating an atmospheric "square" in the Atlantic.
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Quoting afj3:
Hello all,
I have read forecasts on the number of storms we could have for the remainder of the year but is there any metric out there defining the increased/decreased chance of a late-season storm striking land? Does it go up or down in October/November?


Well, if you're taking it by a storm by storm basis, then October and November storms are more likely to impact land due to the usual region of cyclogenesis in these months (the Caribbean) compared to September.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


1887 and 1933 were probably both more active than 2005.


If not, it'd be close.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Yup...We are in a tropical lull. Should last about two weeks, then more named storms:



A lull in early October before a secondary peak in middle to late October, you say?

Because that's never happened before...

Told you all weeks ago that DJ caused a 'storm whisperer' trick of his own with the copious postings of 'The Chart'...
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting jurakantaino:
vorticity is good , but all odds are against its development, we'll see.


Lucky us all odds are against its development, hope stay that way.
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GFS 12z - looks like a tropical storm remnant entering the Mediterranean on Oct. 15.
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91. afj3
Hello all,
I have read forecasts on the number of storms we could have for the remainder of the year but is there any metric out there defining the increased/decreased chance of a late-season storm striking land? Does it go up or down in October/November?
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rip 97l hurricane season,overrr jmo lol
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waitin on the rtn flow
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88. IKE
...10
PERCENT...


Looks like the ATL is in snooze mode for a while.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon.

I posted this morning that the feature in the Eastern Caribbean should be watched as it progresses to the West. The ASCAT pass caught a good piece of it and there appears to be a fairly well defined surface low with SW winds on the South side.

Vorticity seems to have increased since earlier too.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Quoting Portlight:
We just visited an apartment complex from which 40 families will be displaced due to flooding, as the landlord had no flood insurance.


I don't understand how you live in Coastal NC and don't have an SFIP. Sorry about those people, probably a cheap landlord who didn't want to spend the money for insurance.

Please keep us up to date on what kind of flooding you see in terms of people's homes.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
CONUS Protective Barrier at moment:

Whole lotta dry air



Whole lotta shear



Yup
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looks to me like nikkis llc is off jax,after diving ssw yesterday from.offshore nc.....if their wasnt so much darn sheer mayb stand a chanc,looks like ne fl could get some brief squally wx...
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97L is pretty much poof for the time being....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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