Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing
Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.
Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.
A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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So far, I've seen on the NWS Ruskin site that they are expecting it to advance to a line running from say Fort Myers up to Cocoa Beach...
Any idea how strong it will stay, will there be a reinforcing shot of cold air behind it? Needless to say, this will have a major impact on the path any proto-Nichole takes to the north...
Currently the Mid to Upper level low over MS/AL should starting cutting off in the next 12 to 24 hours. This will allow it to meander across the a region encompassing MS/AL/GA. The associated "cold" front which associated air mass has modified quite a bit should stall across the NFL area. Don't expect it to clear through the state completely and taking all the moisture away for the time being, but in my opinion a line from KFMY to KJAX should be a good divisor of the Wet pattern to the E and drier to the W.
Of course all this will be dependent on the strength and position of the cuff off low as a further W position will favor a wetter pattern for the FL Peninsula and N across the E CONUS and a more E position will favor E FL Peninsula and most of the wet pattern staying offshore up to the E CONUS Coast.
Amateur guess for greatest tornado threat would be along a SW/NE line over central SC and NC this afternoon. Pretty much smack in the middle of the SPC 5% tornado risk area.
The real deal:
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010
VALID 271300Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM N FL/SE GA
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...
...SE ATLANTIC AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN MS. THE MS
CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT NEWD TO THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
TONIGHT AND EVOLVE INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE...IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING SSEWD FROM ERN ND/MN. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK LOW INVOF THE FL BIG BEND WILL DEVELOP NNEWD ALONG A
SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT TO THE WRN CAROLINAS BY THIS EVENING...IN
ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING MS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
A BROAD MOIST WARM SECTOR IS PRESENT FROM FL/GA NEWD ACROSS THE ERN
CAROLINAS TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF 68-72 F ARE COMMON. THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY HAS
BEEN LIMITED IN THE WARM SECTOR THUS FAR AS A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS/RAIN AND RELATED POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE
UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL...A CONTINUED INFLUX
OF LOW-MID 70S DEWPOINTS FROM JUST OFFSHORE...AND A FEW CLOUD
BREAKS...COULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL WEAK DESTABILIZATION IN THE LOW
LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. THE OBSERVED AND FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WILL FAVOR RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN MULTIPLE BANDS ALONG AND E OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND RESULTANT
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TODAY IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT...AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTS NEWD. THE
OBSERVED UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY WIND PROFILES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN
THE LLJ EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT ACROSS VA/PA WHEN THE PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN MORE RAPIDLY TOWARD WRN PA. FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS /ESPECIALLY ON
THE FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW/...AS WELL AS BOWING
SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE LINES/CLUSTERS. DAMAGING GUSTS
AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR THROUGH TONIGHT.
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