Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing
Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.
Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.
A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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yeah well they don't seem to be using them much, they have relied mostly on global models for rainfall coverage, which was probably the fatal flaw lol
Saints should have been 3 and 0. Will make up for it next game. Who Dat!
My lawn is currently being mowed. First time in a month, considering it is hay and not grass, should have been waist high. Need rain here!
A bit farther over, Callaway and Parker seem to get more than we do. One of the maps people post here actually shows it. That's just a wet area I guess. We get a sprinkle, they get flooded. Seems odd to see a pattern like that on such a small scale.
The Beach seems to miss it all the time. Anything that comes in off the water seems to get inland to pick up on the thermal convection a bit before firing up I guess.
For us to get the rain here in Central Fl we need to get something to come up the West Coast. Right now there is a lot of model support for storms to move right through South Florida.
yeah that's what worries me, that a southern Florida track could bring drier air in rather then rain.
Would you post a link to this model? I can't find it. Thanks!
My Bucs are 2-1 and tied for first. Why do believe that won't be for long???? I'll answer the question. We're not that good. 7 wins this year.
Lucky you're not 1-2. It's also fairly hot today here. :)
What happened to Wednesday?
which is why the NHC still only has this at 10%, a lesson in why they know more than most on here
In that radar video you just posted, looks like fay went out of its way to avoid Tampa Bay. It's like we have a storm shield!
Ah, the ol' previous engagement bit.
;-)
Saints took how many years to get to the Superbowl? My grandfather taught me you have to pick a team and stick with them through thick and thin.
South LA is getting all the rain we need in west central LA.
http://sanpedroweather.com/
Also called patience and not rushing to conclusions on something that has not formed yet...we have seen storms spin up fast and others that take a few days, the NHC sees something there but not getting too far ahead of themselves.
She sure came back out a nowhere this afternoon!
GOES EAST Water Vapor Loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html
No we don't look at the drought map, only the Panhandle is in need of rain,...those of us in central Florida and South Florida are deep green and any tropical system will send us into big time flooding.
Saints fans have to believe. *G*
Pat had a nicer day for being at the game. The temps are about ten degrees cooler than this past week.
that and how many times have the consensus been wrong this year? I would say pretty good
Reminds me of a song I heard once.
I don't think I've ever seen one swing back with any real strength as far west as Bermuda, but this is just casual memory I'm going off of. I'm sure there plenty of examples in history, but the one thing I bet there isn't in the record books, is one that comes back from the North Atlantic and hits CONUS. Now that would be one to make you babble like a baby.
Wind shear relaxing just a bit is allowing Julia to look better and maintain convection.
What percent will the Western Carribean distrubance be at the next TWO...
You'll get there. Good game today. My heart took a while to calm down after the sudden death plays.
StSimonsIslandGAGuy,
I'm glad because the rain would be going to the wrong part of LA. They've been getting enough rain lately.
dang man that's ridiculous, things must look pretty ugly around there! Even though its been dry the last few weeks here, overall its been a pretty nice year rainfall wise. We have had unusually high rainfall followed by unusually dry weather in intervals all year, but overall more rain then dry.
we get more rain in one month of our dry season than most areas in California get their entire year! and most of the CONUS does not get the rain we get here in Florida.
We are way too spoiled with our wanting so much rain all the time.
I love rain and we need rain to keep our tropical gardens and swamps..but get a grip on the whining.....right now the Panhandle needs rain, the rest of us are still OK..
if we get a wet TC in the next few weeks, South & South Central FLA will be in trouble.
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