Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing
Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.
Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.
A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 — Blog Index
I remember bits and pieces. Long time ago. But the song was meant to be played in it's native tongue. I wish I could say I can converse with you in German. Flood's better there.
Thank you.
In the wine
Make me happy
Make me feel fine....
Can't see where a pure tropical system would have much chance to stand up to the forecast wind shear.
However, the east coast of FL and points father N could be in for a strong 3-4 day coastal storm with strong S & SE winds as the gradient tightens up between ridging to the west and strong mid-Atlantic ridging off the east coast.
Some potential for trouble here-even if it does not have a name.
I told you I didn't know English in those days. LOL
Where's that drum riff cymbal thing when you need it? Wonder if there is a German - Klingon dictionary!
Ewwwwwwwwwwwwwww...
:)
I remember watching Don Ho sing that song on TV....Merv Griffin show maybe....or Andy Williams...
From NWS Miami, as of 7:19pm this evening:
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK... THINGS GET WET AS THE FLOW FROM THE MID TO HIGH LVLS TURN SW AND LIFT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS S FL.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING IS A CONCERN AND POPS WILL LIKELY BE GREATLY UPPED IN THE SHIFTS TO COME.
Comments?
Thanks, Geoff, brings back a lot of memories.
Frankie Goes To Hollywood,Fla ?
The missing,lonely 100th one.
No I should be thanking you.
Beginning of fire season here and we have one burning already - saw it over the mountain as we were coming home. In Tecate Mexico but we live really close (like miss one exit on the freeway and you're in Mex). Hope everyone is prepared. We had a REALLY wet winter and a seriously dry summer.
Wis. — A levee along the Wisconsin River was failing Sunday,
flooding the access road leading to a park area and cutting off any
residents who did not heed daylong warnings to evacuate.It wasn't
clear how many of the roughly 300 residents remained in Blackhawk Park
around 4 p.m. Sunday when the road was closed after water started
leaking from the Caledonia Levee south of Highway 33. The levee had not
collapsed, but officials said enough water was coming through it that it
wasn't considered safe.
Read more: http://www.thestate.com/2010/09/26/1484191/officials-say-levee-failing-near.html#RSS=untracked#ixzz 10hHPeTtF
Say what you want - but the lovely Lemon sisters were hot.
Huh? Many have commented. Your point?
Look at what NWS is putting out:
"THE 12Z MODELS ARE TENDING TO CONVERGE ON A
CLOSED SOUTHERN TROUGH SOLUTION WHICH SUPPORTS A HYBRID/SUBTROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING NE ALONG A STALLED COASTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
WINDS. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SO WILL JUST CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL SITUATION BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED.
.."Try Not to Bruise it"...
Flex,Flex,flex,flex...flex
Oh, that's painful.
I think they were the Lennon sisters, but I see your point
I love songs with a great "hook". Those are the ones you remember.
Just happen to have one.
Link
I think you mean Lennon sisters.
The remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew dumped torrential rains on southern Mexico and much of Central America on Sunday, killing at least four people as it let loose floods and mudslides across the water-logged region. In El Salvador, a 32-year-old man was killed when he was swept away by a swollen
river, and another person was missing, authorities said.
In Mexico's southern Chiapas state, three Tzeltal Indians, two of them children, perished when their house collapsed during a heavy rainstorm.
"It happened late Sunday, when flood waters swept away a house and its three occupants," said Chilon town official Julian Hernandez.
Chiapas Civil Protection director Luis Manuel Garcia said Matthew caused heavy damage across the state.
"There are mudslides in eight municipalities... The worst damage is in Yajalon town, where 215 homes have been affected and around 1,000 families have moved to shelters," he said.
These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.
Why am I not surprised. :)
So is the W Carib so mucked up and confusing that everyone is in wait and watch mode?
Viewing: 1301 - 1351
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 — Blog Index