Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing
Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.
Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.
A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Double,pfthhhh
NEXRAD Radar
Tallahassee, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI
I believe that would be the Lower Peninsula of Michigan.
I think in the U.P. it is Winter and The 4th of July.
;-)
Well, Friday everyone was soaked, but from sweat. Yesterday I think they nay have had the evening rained out. It's not the same anyway. What happened to all the different local gumbo, baked fish, mullet...? Mostly fried any more. No variety. :(
LOL!
Check your WUMail
Oh, I know what you mean. It's had so much of a carnival feel for so long, food-wise, it's really a shame. All these people from out of town come in and the seafood is ghastly. Were there any local restaurants this year? We didn't get downtown at all ~ had a car go ka-flooey on me and things to do today.
EURO says game on for a big storm for the eastern US in the 8-10 day time frame, look at the big differences between the GFS and EURO.
So does the Canadian
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON SC - KCHS 544 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON SC - KCHS 523 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SAN JUAN PR - TJSJ 411 PM AST SUN SEP 26 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SAN JUAN PR - TJSJ 411 PM AST SUN SEP 26 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 307 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 304 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010
Tallahassee, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI
Was a Temporary Loss of Imagery from the Squall at the radar site seems.
I am in San Juan right now and haven't seen any rain to speak of. Overcast yes but zero rain.
Nicole is starting to form.
Thank you for that information - very useful. Are there any statistics available as to historical accuracy for these models?
Miami, what are the chances of the GFS holding true to a back-to-back-to-back hits for South Florida?
Traveling on Vacation or Business jupiter?
Thats a Nice place SJ.
Mostly rain and windy conditions, if Nicole develops.
Here's the GFS at 96 hours. A second weaker system is beginning to take shape in the northwestern Caribbean...likely to take a similar track to its counterpart.
I think you are onto something there.
Ike, is that why where getting rain right know, the cold front coming thru? I think my grass just grew 2".
sheri
Yeah, I'm sure he does. *G* One day I hope to go down to a game.
Rain.
120 hours; a third system, stronger than the second one develops along the straights and is likely headed towards the same direction as the previous two cyclones.
poor FL
(throwing my WE DAT shirt in the dirty clothes) Shouldnt have tried to kick on first down..esp. after the tempo buster timeout by the dirty birds. Wait till we get 'em at the end of the year...they'll wish they had never won that game! lol Finally a normal week for the Saints...should start to see better performance here on out.. TWO DAT!
And what's the latest certainty on a TC over central FL? Are more models than the GFS predicting the same? Am I gonna get soaked riding my scooter to work this week? lol
Yeah...if you're in Mobile...the cold front is moving through now.
Business. I am here every other month for work. Usually I have to watch for storms when I come here but this time I have to watch home. I am supposed to head home Wednesday afternoon but may head back on Tuesday so I don't get stuck here.
What is that big blob along the northeast coast?
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