Matthew drenching Central America and Mexico
Tropical Storm Matthew continues to dump heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and neighboring regions of Mexico today. Puerto Barrios, in northern Guatemala, has received 4.57" of rain in the past 24 hours. With Matthew expected to slow down and dissipate by Sunday, the storm's heavy rains of 6 - 15 inches can be expected to cause severe flooding and dangerous mudslides. The rains are of particular concern for Guatemala, which suffered its rainiest August in its history, followed by the landfall of Tropical Depression 11E during the first week of September, which dumped torrential rains on the country that triggered flooding and mudslides that killed at least 48 Guatemalans.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken yesterday, showing Tropical Storm Matthew approaching landfall.
Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for the 5-day period beginning at 2am EDT today (Saturday, September 25) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT (6Z) run of the GFDL. Very heavy rains in excess of eight inches (yellow colors) are predicted for portions of Central America along Matthew's track. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa pulled a bit of a surprise last night, intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds in the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa's longitude of 27.9W at the time made it the 10th strongest hurricane so far east in the Atlantic. Record keeping began in 1851, but it is likely that many hurricanes stronger than Lisa were missed prior to the advent of reliable satellite coverage in 1974. Lisa is even farther east than Category 4 Hurricane Julia, which earlier this month set the record for strongest hurricane ever recorded so far east. Lisa's glory will be short-lived, though, as strong upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase tonight, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over the storm. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.
Forecast for the rest of the tropics
Most of the models continue to predict that by Wednesday, the remnants of Matthew, and/or a piece of a tropical disturbance over the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, will evolve into a huge and very wet low pressure system that will start spinning over Central America and the Western Caribbean. NHC has been referring to this expected storm as a "monsoon low", and these sorts of storms are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not develop into a tropical storm. In October 2007, a similar monsoon low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused havoc in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. A similar type of storm is likely to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, and most of Central America and the nations surrounding the Western Caribbean can expect to see dangerous flooding rains develop this week in association with this giant low. Most of the models also predict that this big low will eventually develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that would be drawn northwards over Cuba late in the week, and threaten the Bahamas, Florida, or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. This is an exceptionally difficult system to forecast correctly, and the models have been coming up with some pretty unusual solutions as to what might happen. We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds over the next few days.
I'll have an update Sunday by 2pm.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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So the CMC still depicts a strong TS / minimal hurricane.
The wind should have suddenly stopped, they deserved it. :|
What? That's a big dog my friend.
convection south Dom Rep
Lisa had a Jet Stream Shear and Guidance Event around midday UTC - recoiled to heading ENE (1215-2215 UTC)
I tracked the JSGE that disassembled Lisa's mid-level and her reassembly on a recoil course.
I tracked it and will post date notes and story on the aftermath once I get them typed up.
Aftermath (flt-vis 0925 1845) Bad Lisa ...Smokin!!!
Once and future West Arm goin' WSW and Lisa goin' ENE.
Mid-level convection vortices crawling back on through spiral path on rear of Lisa going ENE.
A Clue At Dusk (AtlTropWide-viz 0925 1845) Before Lisa slips into her murk
~~Lisa just after dark with more helpers comin on board on lit spiral path - aready way off track...
Night after JSGE:
It is busy time in Lisa (flt-bd-Dvorak 0926 0345) The City of Vortices
Try a CIMSS movie to see the busy times.
Center at about 25.5W24.5N ? core growing ? and going back to going north !? (is NE heading) while re-attaching broken arm.
ADT peak is leakage out of massive snow/fog shunt to W helpers from N side and Lisa core center (normal outflow).
Western bright ring is W arm reattachment process
Seems most motion now is either N/NE or growth or all.
Lisa huge again - rofl and Wow!!
Tomorrow (or sooner) ::
Is Lisa ready for another a cold front?
That is the 12z run.
00z stronger
Thanks for that, FSU just updated to the 00Z.
CBS was all over it...even went so far as to say whatever "it" is will be sandwiched between the cold front and receding high to the east and head right toward florida...the W,T,F forecast had a big ? surrounded by tropical moisture...said they were going to keep a very close eye on it.
ahhh!
Dooom... and probably Oz telling some joke in his van during the storm in the Panhandle.
XD
It strengthens as it moves north over the peninsula...
Matthew is basically no more.. the center looks to have fallen apart over the mountains
SO Mathew is not going to Fl now?
They are all over the place. However, weeding through the short term junk, they are all showing a Hurricane coming out of the Caribbean next week.
It hasn't formed yet. Don't play stupid.
The wtf forecast. lol
The Seed?
What do you think about this? Does it seem realistic to you?
Then why are all the local mets talking about it?
He's a trolololololol
No, look again and pay attention to the Gulf of Honduras. GFS is showing the same thing, the seed is planted.
Yeah, I'm ignoring "it".
Well, that guy's an idiot.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1008 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2010
FINALLY...LONG-TERM COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE OUR WINDS WINDS BY MID-WEEK. STAY
TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
and a SScaster(SH** Starter)
Anybody notice Lisa is 90 degrees off track and growing big?
Not really clear on heading and center - Lisa has a real murk going on - I think Lisa's heading is NE and heading is trending to the north...
lol - check CIMSS MIMIC-IR tool at Univ. of Wisc
Look at the animated gif for today 0926 - Lisa core is circle on the right
That too.
So it is Matthew's seed that does not develope until Central Florida? That doesn't make sense I thought there was suppose to be high sheer in the GOM unless I am not seeing something correctly
LOL I like that.
Unfortunately, if that's true, I'll have to put you on ignore. Verify?
i apologize for my actions i cause fri and sat and bypassing a ban i hope u all that got mad at me can forgive me i am good and i will be good if u let me on"....i hope this
btwntx08
by
Thank you.
Matthew is continuing off to the NW @ 12. The seed sitting in the GOH will be named Nicole, if it develops.
Shear changes so much I don't look at it until there is a storm to track, can't help ya with the shear forecast.
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