Matthew makes landfall in Nicaragua

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:45 (GMT)

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Satellite data shows that Tropical Storm Matthew has made landfall along the Nicaragua/Honduras coast, and is now headed inland through northern Honduras. Data from the Hurricane Hunters showed that Matthew was beginning to intensify as it made landfall, but no further intensification is likely as long as Matthew's center remains over land. We don't have many reporting stations where Matthew made landfall; Puerto Lempira, Honduras is closest, and reported sustained winds of 46 mph at 5pm CDT.


Figure 1. Forecast rain amounts for the 5-day period beginning at 8am EDT today (Friday, September 24) as predicted by this morning's 8am EDT (12Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models. Very heavy rains in excess of eight inches (yellow colors) are predicted by both models for portions of Central America along Matthew's track. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Short range forecast for Matthew
If Matthew follows the official NHC forecast and remains inland, the storm will gradually weaken and dissipate 2 - 3 days from now. If the center of Matthew emerges over water, as suggested by the HWRF model, some slight intensification could occur before Matthew makes landfall in Belize Saturday night. The SHIPS model forecasts that shear will fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, Saturday afternoon through Monday, so any movement of Matthew's center offshore is likely to allow intensification. The main danger for Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and northern Guatemala will be from heavy rains, not wind. The forecast rain amounts of 6 - 10 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 inches, will cause severe flooding and dangerous mudslides. Belize, northern Guatemala, northwestern Honduras, and bordering regions of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula are most at risk from Matthew's rains, since the storm is likely to slow down and linger in these regions this weekend and early next week.

Long range forecast for Matthew
Matthew is being forced just north of due west by a strong ridge of high pressure. This ridge will keep the storm moving at 15 mph through Saturday. On Sunday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause Matthew to slow to just 5 mph by Sunday night. Most of the models now show Matthew lingering over Central America long enough to dissipate. However, by Wednesday of next week, most of the models indicate that remnants of Matthew, and/or a piece of a tropical disturbance over the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, will move into the Western Caribbean and develop into a tropical depression. The trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is then likely to draw this system northwards across Cuba late next week into either Florida or the Bahamas. Whether this development would be called Matthew or Nicole is uncertain, as is the potential strength of such a storm. We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds over the next few days.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Saturday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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2015. JBirdFireMedic
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 19:20 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 10.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 247
2014. stillwaiting
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 18:12 (GMT)
Looks to me as if matte llc is racing towards the nw over central belize,that north turn and then back west over waters going to happen over the next 24hrs.....its beginging now,gfs has not been that off imo(the runs about a week ago),imo matt w/be reborn into a monster and nicole w/follow
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
2013. RufusBaker
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 17:34 (GMT)
Run after run after run. All models show something big around Tampa next week. Please get ready Tampa folks
Member Since: 5.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 578
2012. IKE
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:24 (GMT)
12Z GFS has a system coming in south of Tallahassee,FL.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2011. secosmitty
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:22 (GMT)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What is so funny too is that in Ivan a lot of those types of homes are the ones that had the least amount of damage.. People look at how it "looks" but don't realize that the wood etc. they use to build these homes and how they anchor them is very strong.

and!! renewable, sustainable, locally derived.
if they loose the guano palm leaves on the roof, they can just go get some more
Member Since: 3.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
2010. WxLogic
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:19 (GMT)
12Z GFS is looking better now... a much more progressive pattern instead of that stubborn stalls being advertised in the past.

12Z run is much more in line with the ECMWF Ensemble.

126HR
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
2009. 47n91w
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:51 (GMT)
Quoting MahFL:


So a picture of someone living in third world conditions is "beautiful".....enjoy your Big Mac's.......


What?? Good lord. I lived in a thatch-roof mud hut for several years in a developing nation (more p.c. than 'third world'). Based on my experience, this is actually a very nice hut, they can afford the time and effort to harvest grasses for their roof, and have a boat or two to fish and sell their harvest or put food on the table.

I would have to bet there are people with fewer resources who have less than what's shown in this photo. It's also possible that the home shown in the photo is a well-to-do family. It's all relative and we do not have enough information to judge poverty levels based on a photograph. Silly for us in 'civilized' nations to think that someone living like this must be living in squalor.

I miss my hut and a more simple life.
Member Since: 13.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
2008. asgolfr999
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:44 (GMT)
Quoting islander101010:
seeing news out of mexico sounds like veracruz got hit real bad by karl. so far he is the only name that should be retired this yr


tell that to Newfoundland
Member Since: 18.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 312
2006. pcbdragon
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:39 (GMT)
new blog
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 133
2004. JRRP
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:36 (GMT)
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5085
2003. MiamiHurricanes09
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:34 (GMT)
Quoting sHaDySrEbElLiOn:


Miami, do you feel Nicole could be a hurricane? You mentioned Florida and the Bahamas could be affected so is it possible they could have a hurricane by next week??
The forecast steering would suggest a system developing in the western Caribbean get picked up by a trough and be turned northeastward towards the areas I mentioned earlier. The intensity of course will be unknown until we know where the system develops (if it ever does) and what environmental conditions will be like where it develops. Still a lot of 'unknowns' remain.
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
2002. aspectre
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:31 (GMT)
TropicalStormMatthew's heading had turned northward to (5.3degrees west of) NorthWest
from its previous heading of (6degrees north of) dueWest
TS.Matthew's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~14.3mph(~23.1km/h)

24Sep 03pmGMT - - 14.4n82.2w - - 50mph - - 1001mb - - #5
24Sep 06pmGMT - - 14.6n83.0w - - 50mph - - - 998mb - - #5A
24Sep 09pmGMT - - 14.7n83.7w - - 45mph - - - 998mb - - #6
25Sep 12amGMT - - 14.9n84.4w - - 50mph - - - 998mb - - NHC.Adv.#6A
25Sep 03amGMT - - 15.2n85.0w - - 50mph - - - 998mb - - #7
25Sep 06amGMT - - 15.5n85.7w - - 50mph - - - 998mb - - #7A
25Sep 09amGMT - - 15.7n86.3w - - 50mph - - - 998mb - - #8
25Sep 12pmGMT - - 15.8n87.3w - - 45mph - - 1000mb - - #8A
25Sep 03pmGMT - - 16.2n87.8w - - 40mph - - 1000mb - - #9

Copy&paste 14.4n82.2w, 14.6n83.0w, 14.7n83.7w, 14.9n84.4w, 15.2n85.0w-15.5n85.7w, 15.5n85.7w-15.7n86.3w,15.7n86.3w-15.8n87.3w, 15.8n87.3w-16.2n87.8w, vsa, cpe, 16.2n87.8w-16.64n88.35w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12*hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~3hours from now to Riversdale,Belize

* The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
2001. aspectre
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:31 (GMT)
Don't knock living in McMansions. Can you imagine how tough it'd be to wear a bespoke wool suit in the middle of summer without air-conditioning?
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1999. AnthonyJKenn
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:30 (GMT)
Morning, everyone.

OK...which one of y'all infested the GFS with the CMC's crack??

First they were advertising East Coast Hurrageddon, then the Ne/N Cen Gulf Coast Sideswipe Tour ending up in LA...and now they are playing the "Head Fake to LA/TX, then BACK to the BOC" card?!?!?! WTF?!?!?!

What's next..."the circle all around the GOM then head to the EPac to hit Cali" card?? LOL

Still betting on a FL Panhandle/S FL solution...but hedging my bets a bit more now.

OK...off to work.


Anthony
Member Since: 20.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 206
1998. gordydunnot
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:30 (GMT)
I nominate Julia for naked swirl of the year award still alive at 29n and 48w moving wsw.
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
1996. cmahan
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:22 (GMT)
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
This mornings model of Matthew's future isn't giving me much comfort. It's called, "We really have no idea."



I think I referred to a similar graphic as a "squashed spider" model run, but I meant no offense to anyone with spider in their blog handle. With those lengthy tracks, this one looks like a "squashed daddy longlegs." :D
Member Since: 7.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
1995. stormwatcherCI
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:22 (GMT)
Quoting WXTXN:
Much easier to rebuild a shack than a mcmansion...I think in this circumstance they may be better off.

At least they won't be in to the bank for 20 years to pay it off.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
1994. JRRP
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:20 (GMT)

i´m out
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5085
1993. WXTXN
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:20 (GMT)
Much easier to rebuild a shack than a mcmansion...I think in this circumstance they may be better off.
Quoting sailingallover:

I lived for two years in an 8x16 Shack here in St Thomas..it is not Bad..you are just used to MacMansions..those are bad...

Member Since: 10.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 139
1992. utilaeastwind
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:20 (GMT)
Looks like another COC is trying to form at 16.5N 87.3W

Any thoughts?
Member Since: 12.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 192
1991. MiamiHurricanes09
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:18 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:
Matthew is decoupled..
The center is in the waters southeast of Belize, and the mid-level center is southwest of the actual center, along with the convection.
I agree. It will be interesting to see where the mid and lower level circulations go to see if that is the energy that combines with another feature to develop into a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1990. Neapolitan
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:17 (GMT)
Quoting utilaeastwind:


Agreed. Matthew's LLC is creeping up along the Belize coast.


I knmow there's been discussion about what a storm comprised of Matthew's remnants would be called. In my opinion and experience, a LLC belongs to a storm, so even if decoupling occurs and both parts continue on to later develop different storms, the LLC would maintain the name of the original storm, while the ULL would get a new name once its circulation reached the surface.

Clear enough? ;-)
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
1989. RotorYacht
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:16 (GMT)
Lots of rotation South of Hispaniola! Humm...Could this be the slow birth of Nicole?
Member Since: 28.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 57
1988. CybrTeddy
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:16 (GMT)
Quoting sailingallover:
Later All have a great day!


See ya!
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23018
1987. stormwatcherCI
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:16 (GMT)
Quoting Dakster:
I thought that was a beautiful picture too... I didn't think it was a picture of squalor.

So I guess a small cabin in the woods of rural USA would also offend?
What is so funny too is that in Ivan a lot of those types of homes are the ones that had the least amount of damage.. People look at how it "looks" but don't realize that the wood etc. they use to build these homes and how they anchor them is very strong.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
1986. surfmom
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:14 (GMT)
Quoting CJ5:


Huh? I think that is beautiful and I would image if you ask the resident of the structure they would say the same thing. I don't think they care much for your big mac or your presumtion.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I think they were speaking of the river being beautiful. Not the condition of the homes.
Quoting sailingallover:

I lived for two years in an 8x16 Shack here in St Thomas..it is not Bad..you are just used to MacMansions..those are bad...


ThankYOU
Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
1985. sailingallover
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:13 (GMT)
Later All have a great day!
Member Since: 1.09.2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1005
1984. Dakster
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:12 (GMT)
I thought that was a beautiful picture too... I didn't think it was a picture of squalor.

So I guess a small cabin in the woods of rural USA would also offend?
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9768
1983. SuperYooper
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:12 (GMT)
Morning all. Any word from our friends on Roatan?
Member Since: 18.08.2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 1601
1982. Neapolitan
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:12 (GMT)
BTW: I've read more than one comment today saying something along the lines of "Except for the possible redevelopment of, or cloning from, Matthew, the models aren't showing anything else over the next several days, so it should be a quiet week". I just wanted to remind those people that the models said almost the same exact thing last Monday morning...in a week that produced both Lisa and Matthew. IOW, the models are for the most part better at showing where an existing system is headed than they are for showing where a new system may pop up.
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
1981. stormwatcherCI
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:11 (GMT)
Quoting sailingallover:

I lived for two years in an 8x16 Shack here in St Thomas..it is not Bad..you are just used to MacMansions..those are bad...
No. I know. When I first moved to Cayman I also lived in a very small "shack". No electricity, no running water, no kitchen, no bathroom etc. Keep it clean and there is "No place like home."
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
1980. Seflhurricane
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:11 (GMT)
something appears to be forming NW of aruba
Member Since: 14.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
1979. Dakster
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:10 (GMT)
Reedzone -- No reason to doubt you...

Although I hope the models are wrong about a named storm going into the GOM and into CONUS.

Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9768
1978. CJ5
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:09 (GMT)
Quoting MahFL:


So a picture of someone living in third world conditions is "beautiful".....enjoy your Big Mac's.......


Huh? I think that is beautiful and I would image if you ask the resident of the structure they would say the same thing. I don't think they care much for your big mac or your presumption.
Member Since: 4.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
1977. sailingallover
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:09 (GMT)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I think they were speaking of the river being beautiful. Not the condition of the homes.

I lived for two years in an 8x16 Shack here in St Thomas..it is not Bad..you are just used to MacMansions..those are bad...
Member Since: 1.09.2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1005
1976. utilaeastwind
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:09 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:
Matthew is decoupled..
The center is in the waters southeast of Belize, and the mid-level center is southwest of the actual center, along with the convection.


Agreed. Matthew's LLC is creeping up along the Belize coast.
Member Since: 12.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 192
1975. 7544
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:08 (GMT)
in order for nicole to show up mathew has to get far out and he seems to be doing this as he gets further inland so now start looking to the east for nicole to form her seed we might see this latter tonight or early tomorow if most models are right imo
Member Since: 6.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
1974. Seflhurricane
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:08 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:
Matthew is decoupled..
The center is in the waters southeast of Belize, and the mid-level center is southwest of the actual center, along with the convection.
looks like the ingredients are coming together for Nicole to form. look at the visible and zoom into Se belieze
Member Since: 14.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
1973. Neapolitan
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:07 (GMT)
Not a lot of 850mb vorticity associated with the 12N/34W feature...but there's some, and that's something:

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

Tropical weather-related image
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
1972. JRRP
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:07 (GMT)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
See post #1949 now. LOL

jajajaja
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5085
1971. OracleDeAtlantis
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:07 (GMT)
This mornings model of Matthew's future isn't giving me much comfort. It's called, "We really have no idea."

Member Since: 27.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 489
1970. reedzone
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:04 (GMT)
Matthew is decoupled..
The center is in the waters southeast of Belize, and the mid-level center is southwest of the actual center, along with the convection.
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
1969. islander101010
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:03 (GMT)
the vortex just north of panama has alittle punch 16 inches of rain was reported on the pacific side of southern costa rica last night
Member Since: 11.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
1968. sailingallover
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:01 (GMT)
Quoting kmanislander:


Here is the ASCAT pass for this morning of that feature. It is a small surface low with a single small area of convection. It is currently sitting in an area of very low shear but would need to develop a lot more convection than it has now to be considered a threat. Something else to watch but not of immediate concern IMO



Image of the single cloud associated with it:


Nice Ascat.. gee now I have to worry...
Naw some trough will pick it up...or shear is coming back or there is no way a CV storm will make it all the way across the Atlantic this time of year...It's the ITCZ..wait no thats thats the east to west convection south of it..
hmmmmmmmm
Member Since: 1.09.2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1005
1967. stormwatcherCI
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:01 (GMT)
Quoting MahFL:


So a picture of someone living in third world conditions is "beautiful".....enjoy your Big Mac's.......
I think they were speaking of the river being beautiful. Not the condition of the homes.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
1966. IKE
25. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:59 (GMT)
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 16.2N 87.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 16.5N 89.5W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 26/1200Z 17.0N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 27/0000Z 17.5N 91.5W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/1200Z 17.5N 91.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 28/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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