Matthew not strengthening; Igor is Newfoundland's worst hurricane in memory

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:53 (GMT)

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Tropical Storm Matthew is bearing down on the Nicaragua/Honduras coast, but wind shear is keeping the storm from intensifying this morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft is in Matthew, and found the center pressure had risen slightly, to 1002 mb, at 8:24am EDT. Top winds seen at the surface remained at 50 mph, but winds at their flight level of 5,000 feet peaked at an unimpressive 48 mph. Satellite loops show that Matthew's heavy thunderstorm activity is mostly on the storm's south side, and this is due to strong upper level winds out of the northeast creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the storm. Heavy rain squalls have moved ashore over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras, as seen in the latest observations from Puerto Lempira, Honduras.


Figure 1. The forecast radius of tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph (dark green colors) and 58+ mph winds (lighter yellow-green colors) taken from the official 5am EDT forecast for Tropical Storm Matthew. The image was generated from our wundermap for Tropical Storm Matthew with the "hurricane" layer turned on with "wind radius" and "forecast" boxes checked.

Short range forecast for Matthew
An upper-level high pressure system lies to the northwest of Matthew, near the coast of Belize. The clockwise flow of air around this high will bring a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over Matthew today and Saturday morning. There is some dry air to the north of Matthew, and the shear may be able to drive some of this dry air into the storm, slowing intensification and keeping Matthew below hurricane strength before it makes landfall in northeastern Nicaragua late tonight. Matthew's passage over the northeast corner of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras should also act to disrupt the storm. The terrain is not mountainous in this region, though, and Matthew should be able to reorganize quickly once it emerges back into the Western Caribbean on Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, Matthew will move more underneath the upper-level high, resulting in much lower shear. The SHIPS model forecasts that shear will fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, Saturday afternoon through Monday. This drop in shear may allow for intensification of Matthew into a Category 1 hurricane before it hits Belize on Sunday morning. However, a strong tropical storm is more likely.

Impact of Matthew on Nicaragua, Honduras, and Belize
Tropical storm force winds from Matthew are forecast to extend outwards from the center between 40 - 80 nm (46 - 92 miles) as the storm moves along the north coast of Honduras this weekend. Matthew's initial forward speed of 15 mph will slow to 10 mph by Sunday morning. In combination, these factors should bring tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to Guanaja, Roatan, and the central Honduras coast beginning between 4am - 8am EDT Saturday. These winds will last about 6 - 12 hours. Given the current weak state of Matthew, I doubt winds in excess of 50 mph will be seen on the Honduras coast as the storm passes to the north. The coast of Belize will be subject to a longer period of strong winds, since Matthew will be moving slower when it hits Belize, and may be a stronger storm. Expect 39+ mph winds to arrive at the coast of Belize between 6 - 10 pm EDT Saturday night, and persist for 12 - 16 hours, near where the center of Matthew makes landfall. A good way to compute these times of arrival and duration is to use our wundermap with the hurricane wind radius forecast layer turned on (Figure 1.) The main danger for Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and northern Guatemala will be from heavy rains, not wind. The forecast rain amounts of 6 - 10 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 inches, will cause severe flooding and dangerous mudslides. Belize is probably most at risk from Matthew's rains.

Long range forecast for Matthew
Matthew is being forced just north of due west by a strong ridge of high pressure. This ridge will keep the storm moving at 15 mph through Saturday. On Sunday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause Matthew to slow to just 5 mph by Sunday night. The models are divided into two basic camps on what might happen next. One solution, championed by the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET models, has Matthew continuing inland once it makes landfall in Belize Sunday morning or afternoon. This solution means Matthew would likely dissipate over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The other solution, given by the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models, predicts Matthew will move inland over Belize for a day or so, then drift northeast and pop back out into the Western Caribbean sometime Monday or Tuesday. The key to Matthew's long range track depends upon how it interacts with a tropical low pressure area developing in the Eastern Pacific, and the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. With steering currents expected to be weak, and small changes in Matthew's track making the difference between the storm being over land or water, the long range forecast for the storm is highly uncertain. It Matthew lingers in the Western Caribbean off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula for several days, the potential exists for the storm to grow into a large and dangerous major hurricane. Sea surface temperatures and the total heat content of the Caribbean in this region are greater than the previous record highs set in 2005 (Figure 2), so there is plenty of fuel for a hurricane.

>
Figure 2. Total oceanic heat content (called the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, or TCHP) in kilojoules per square centimeter (kJ/cm^2), for September 22 2010 (top) and the previous record high for this time of year, set in 2005 (bottom.) Category 5 Hurricane Wilma of 2005, the strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic, reached its peak strength over the "bullseye" of high TCHP over the Western Caribbean. TCHP values are even higher this year than when Wilma formed, and TCHP in excess of 90 kJ/cm^2 (orange colors) is commonly associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Saturday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas to discuss, and the GFS and NOGAPS models have backed off on their predictions of a new tropical depression forming in the Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now.

Hurricane Igor: Newfoundland's worst hurricane in memory
Newfoundland, Canada continues to reel from the effects of the punishing blow delivered by Hurricane Igor on Tuesday. The island remains devastated with many communities isolated by washed out bridges and roads. Power is impossible to restore in many areas since service crews cannot get there. The entire eastern portion of Newfoundland was cut off from the rest of the province due to a massive ravine that carved its way through the Trans-Canada Highway (Figure 3.) The road was re-opened yesterday using a temporary bridge. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada puts it this way:

"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."


Figure 3. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.

Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane, and brought sustained winds above hurricane force of 76 mph to two stations, Cape Pine and Bonavista. The storm's peak wind gust was 107 mph at Cape Pine. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Nearby St. Lawrence recorded its greatest 1-day rainfall event in its history, 238 mm (9.37".) Many other stations recorded 150+ mm of rain, making Igor a 1-in-100 year rainfall event. Igor's record rains were due, in part, to the storm's large size, and to the record warm sea surface temperatures over the Atlantic that allowed large amounts of water vapor to evaporate into the air surrounding Igor. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland. Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage may exceed $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in its history.

While it is unusual for full-fledged hurricanes to affect Newfoundland, It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all-time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 4. Igor caused drastic beach erosion at Elbow Beach in Bermuda. Image credit: Extreme weather photographer Mike Theiss. He has a nice web page documenting his experience with the storm on Bermuda.

Next post
If there's a significant change to Matthew or to the forecast, I'll have an update this afternoon. Otherwise, I'll post an update Saturday by noon.

Jeff Masters

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1250. Kearn
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 22:00 (GMT)
like ive been telling you all day long

matthew is going to dissipate
Member Since: 15.05.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 57
1249. Motttt
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:41 (GMT)
I,m an old one too
Member Since: 10.09.2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
1248. will40
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:59 (GMT)
The flights go into everything from developing tropical storms to Category 5 hurricanes. But they don’t fly into a storm over land because of the danger of tornadoes.


googled it and found this
Member Since: 19.09.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
1247. LoneStarWeather
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:56 (GMT)
Quoting Buhdog:
i have never seen a member since 2002....omg. What is the longest anyone else has seen? Mad props to you! sounds like we may need to get out the canoes if the 2 week precip holds out!

Quoting recordfinder:


Yeah, been here since almost the start of this site it feels like. How long has WU been around?

I am feeling this one. The models are all showing something is going to affect FL in the next 7 days. But that is still pretty far away as we all know. Things can and will change. But fun keeping an eye on it in the meantime.


Gotcha beat...here since 2001.
Member Since: 8.09.2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 424
1246. will40
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:56 (GMT)
i didnt think recon would investigate a strom over land because of tornado hazard.
Member Since: 19.09.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
1245. stormpetrol
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:55 (GMT)
You know personally I have a great respect for the NHC and the overall great job they do, but Matthew is a complicated system, but a blind man can see what is about take place,Matthew is starting to pull more northward and will probably meander in the area of the GOH for a few days gathering strenghth and power, personally i doubt there will be another system, Matthew IMO is going to be the main player in the Caribbean for the rest of week, anyway just my personal opinion, lets see if the 2nd Storm scenario with the models and evidently most experts pan out,just my personal opinion, bear in mind I could be completely wrong, as I'm sure not an expert weatherman, nor am I being critical of the NHC or any respected forecaster" which is usually a reliable computer model anyway" as Matthew is obviously an headache for anyone including the experts, its basically a watch, wait and see what pans out game!
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
1243. TropicalWeatherGrl
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:50 (GMT)
Exactly let's take Gaston for instence a good amount of models devolped it but the GFS didn't the GFS was right.However GfS has been very consistant on developing this so if it does not I will be surprised, not to say that it will be as strong as the GFS is saying at the moment cause things obviously change in a days time.
Member Since: 20.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 132
1240. xcool
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:48 (GMT)
newwwwwwwwwwwww BLOGGG
Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1239. IKE
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:47 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1238. GTcooliebai
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:47 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!!!!
Member Since: 31.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1237. centex
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:46 (GMT)
Models were very late to get Matthew right. It was a difficult one. Seems the more reliable models were the most wrong on this one. Game may not be over if it can pull a little N.
Member Since: 10.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3217
1236. HurricaneGeek
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:46 (GMT)
Matthew is not evening getting into any of the off the chart TCHP, either.
Member Since: 10.05.2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
1235. hurricane556
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:46 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 16.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
1234. jeffs713
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:46 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
6-10 day temperature outlook....

YAY!
Member Since: 3.08.2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
1233. leo305
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:45 (GMT)
There's a weak area of low pressure east of matthew rigth now.. you could see some convergence developing as matthew moves away from that area..

there's quite a bit of convection there just north of columbia
Member Since: 17.04.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
1232. jrweatherman
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:45 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
...MATTHEW MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 24
Location: 14.7°N 83.7°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: W at 15 mph

Min pressure: 998 mb



How about posting this as well..

FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT RUNS INDICATE THAT ANY
DEVELOPMENT THERE WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE CONTINUITY WITH MATTHEW...
BUT RATHER REPRESENT THE FORMATION A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE.
Member Since: 17.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 650
1231. Patrap
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:45 (GMT)

18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
TS Matthew
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125510
1229. ILwthrfan
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:45 (GMT)
models dont have a clue right now lol...


Member Since: 2.02.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1403
1228. HurricaneGeek
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:44 (GMT)
Quoting WxLogic:
Appears confidence is increasing that next development will be Nichole.


Yes, it is certain the next development will be Nicole. 100%.
But the question is where? when? how? to where? =)
Member Since: 10.05.2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
1227. tkeith
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:44 (GMT)
Quoting BobinTampa:


what about Gaston?
I have a short memory...product of the 70's, you know how it is :)

Member Since: 1.11.2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8912
1225. xCat6Hurricane
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:44 (GMT)
Lisa trying to be a hurricane again?
Member Since: 19.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
1224. HurricaneGeek
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:43 (GMT)
How much ACE has Lisa donated so far?

Thanks.
Member Since: 10.05.2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
1223. WxLogic
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:43 (GMT)
Appears confidence is increasing that next development will be Nichole.
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
1222. sngalla
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:43 (GMT)
Quoting Buhdog:


Charley taught me alot about canes. I was the first on my block to board up as i was a WU novice and Lefty 420 told me to put them on! the 3 neighbors laughed at me at the time (all ended up at my house)

I was afraid when they told us that a cat 4 brought 20 foot surge (my house in cape is 8 feet above) OF course living on a cape near the water i freaked! I grabbed a ladder and put it near the garage to get into the attic if needed! I have since figured out how it works...in theory! 1. never guess gulf storms intensity. 2. have a generator ready, 3. have a bunch of food ready. The rest is easy.



My first was Irene which wasn't even forecast to come in our direction. So no shutters up. Watched the windows breathing with the force of the winds and lost power for 3 days. Never under estimate any storm.
Member Since: 18.02.2003 Posts: 57 Comments: 5363
1221. Patrap
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:42 (GMT)
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125510
1220. BobinTampa
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:42 (GMT)
Quoting tkeith:
If a storm dont form down there and get into the Gulf this coming week, this will be the most over forecasted tropical event I can remember. Every model every forecaster and even TWC has been on this for goin on 2 weeks.


what about Gaston?
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 526
1219. HurricaneGeek
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:42 (GMT)
Interesting...

FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT RUNS INDICATE THAT ANY
DEVELOPMENT THERE WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE CONTINUITY WITH MATTHEW...
BUT RATHER REPRESENT THE FORMATION A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE.
Member Since: 10.05.2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
1218. MiamiHurricanes09
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:42 (GMT)
...LISA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 27.8W
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1217. GTcooliebai
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:42 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
...MATTHEW MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 24
Location: 14.7°N 83.7°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: W at 15 mph

Min pressure: 998 mb

Why am I not surprised?
Member Since: 31.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1215. ecflweatherfan
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:40 (GMT)
Per NHC... Dissipation at 96 hrs... and per discussion, likely not to be "Matthew" in the NW Carib but rather another entity
Member Since: 19.03.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1146
1214. IKE
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:40 (GMT)
MATTHEW HAS DECREASED SOME IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING WESTWARD
ABOUT 13 KNOTS...WELL EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH IN
THE SHORT TERM...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 TO 3
DAYS.
..........


RIP in 2-3 days. Good luck to those in it's path, from flooding.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1213. StormChaser81
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:40 (GMT)
They have to see the WNW or NW movement happen for a couple of hours before they change it.

Might be a big wobble.
Member Since: 11.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
1212. tropicfreak
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:39 (GMT)
I don't get it, NHC still has matthew moving west and the track shifted further south, doesn't make sense.
Member Since: 2.09.2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
1211. HurricaneGeek
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:39 (GMT)
No more 5 day cone for Matt...
Member Since: 10.05.2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
1210. tkeith
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:39 (GMT)
If a storm dont form down there and get into the Gulf this coming week, this will be the most over forecasted tropical event I can remember. Every model every forecaster and even TWC has been on this for goin on 2 weeks.
Member Since: 1.11.2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8912
1209. WxLogic
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:38 (GMT)
Quoting Chicklit:


RU kidding me?!


Matthew is becoming a large Tropical Storm due to land interaction, so based on this and the monsoonal region is currently on... it could easily relocate to where new deeper convection exist which in this case is over the coast. There's some indication of its low level vorticity (heading WNW to NW) separating from the mid level one which is heading W. Is possible.
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
1207. MiamiHurricanes09
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:38 (GMT)
000
WTNT45 KNHC 242036
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA FIXED THE
CENTER OF MATTHEW AT 1717 UTC ABOUT 30 NMI EAST OF THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB AND WINDS
SUPPORTING AN INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. SINCE THEN...MATTHEW MOVED
WESTWARD AND THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
AND IS NOW LOCATED INLAND SOUTH OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS. THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY
CURVED RAINBANDS TO THE NORTH AND VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. SINCE THE CENTER IS ALREADY OVER LAND...GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN.

AS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE MOVES WESTWARD OVER HONDURAS DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THERE
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND NOAA BUOY DATA.

MATTHEW HAS DECREASED SOME IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING WESTWARD
ABOUT 13 KNOTS...WELL EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH IN
THE SHORT TERM...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 TO 3
DAYS.

FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT RUNS INDICATE THAT ANY
DEVELOPMENT THERE WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE CONTINUITY WITH MATTHEW...
BUT RATHER REPRESENT THE FORMATION A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 14.7N 83.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 15.2N 85.6W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/1800Z 15.8N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0600Z 16.5N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/1800Z 17.0N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 27/1800Z 17.0N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1206. IKE
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:38 (GMT)
It moved .1N and .7W over the last 3 hours. Weakening...winds down to 45 mph. Moving just north of west.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1205. StormChaser81
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:38 (GMT)
Quoting tropicfreak:


Feeder band is keeping Matthew alive.


That's funny do these names ring a bell, Karl, Wilma, Fay, etc all stayed together or strengthened over land.
Member Since: 11.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
1204. ILwthrfan
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:38 (GMT)
000
WTNT45 KNHC 242036
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA FIXED THE
CENTER OF MATTHEW AT 1717 UTC ABOUT 30 NMI EAST OF THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB AND WINDS
SUPPORTING AN INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. SINCE THEN...MATTHEW MOVED
WESTWARD AND THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
AND IS NOW LOCATED INLAND SOUTH OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS. THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY
CURVED RAINBANDS TO THE NORTH AND VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. SINCE THE CENTER IS ALREADY OVER LAND...GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN.

AS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE MOVES WESTWARD OVER HONDURAS DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THERE
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND NOAA BUOY DATA.

MATTHEW HAS DECREASED SOME IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING WESTWARD
ABOUT 13 KNOTS...WELL EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH IN
THE SHORT TERM...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 TO 3
DAYS.

FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT RUNS INDICATE THAT ANY
DEVELOPMENT THERE WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE CONTINUITY WITH MATTHEW...
BUT RATHER REPRESENT THE FORMATION A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE.

Member Since: 2.02.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1403
1202. ecflweatherfan
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:38 (GMT)
Quoting tropicfreak:


Means some beneficial rains for us here in VA.


I hear that... a little parched across the SE for sure, including here in my area of Central Florida. We are nearly 9" below normal on the year... so we could use it for sure.
Member Since: 19.03.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1146
1201. HurricaneGeek
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:37 (GMT)
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Good afternoon.

It appears as though by the 5 pm updaye, Matthew will have made landfall.
At the a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/145713.shtml?radii#contents update, his center is barely off the Nicaraguan Coast. A landfall in extreme N. Nicaragua seems like the likely scenario.

Looking at the Visible Satellite Imagery , it does appear the he is starting some sort of motion with a northerly component, but it's also possible that it's the the expansion of convection to the north that makes that illusion.

We'll see in 20 minutes.


Sorry.
Visible Loop
Member Since: 10.05.2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
1200. IKE
24. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:37 (GMT)
...MATTHEW MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 24
Location: 14.7°N 83.7°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: W at 15 mph

Min pressure: 998 mb
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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