Karl makes landfall near Veracruz; Igor slightly weaker
Hurricane Karl made landfall on the Mexican coast ten miles north of Veracruz at 1pm EDT today as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Veracruz was on the weak (left) side of Karl's eyewall, and did not receive hurricane force winds, except perhaps at the extreme northern edge of the city. Winds at the Veracruz Airport, located on the west side of the city, peaked at sustained speeds of 46 mph, gusting to 58 mph, at 11:54am local time. Radar out of Alvarado shows that Karl has kept its eyewall intact well inland, even as the storm moves into the high mountains east of Mexico City. Karl was the first major hurricane on record in the Bay of Campeche--the region of the Gulf of Mexico bounded by the Yucatan Peninsula on the east. There were two other major hurricanes that grazed the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche, Hurricane Hilda of 1955 and Hurricane Charley of 1951, but Karl is by far the farthest south a major hurricane has been in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane records go back to 1851, but Karl is a small storm and could have gotten missed as being a major hurricane before the age of aircraft reconnaissance (1945).
Figure 1. Tracks of all major hurricanes since 1851 near Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Karl is most southerly storm on record in the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
With Karl's ascension to major hurricane status, we are now ahead of the pace of the terrible hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005 for number of major hurricanes so early in the year. In 2005, the fifth major hurricane (Rita) did not occur until September 21, and in 2004, the fifth major hurricane (Karl) arrived on September 19. Wunderblogger Cotillion has put together a nice page showing all the seasons with five or more major hurricanes. The last time we had five major hurricanes earlier in the season was in 1961, when the fifth major hurricane (Esther) arrived on September 13. This morning we continue to have three simultaneous hurricanes, Hurricanes Igor, Julia, and Karl. This is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight previous years since 1851. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. The year 2005 came within six hours of having three hurricanes at the same time, but the official data base constructed after the season was over indicates that the three hurricanes did not exist simultaneously.
Also remarkable this year is that are seeing major hurricanes in rare or unprecedented locations. Julia was the strongest hurricane on record so far east, Karl was the strongest hurricane so far south in the Gulf of Mexico, and Earl was the 4th strongest Atlantic hurricane so far north. This unusual major hurricane activity is likely due, in part, to the record Atlantic sea surface temperatures this year.
Figure 2. Hurricane Karl as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 12:20 pm CDT on Thursday, September 16, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 3. Radar image of Karl at landfall in Mexico. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service.
Impact of Karl on Mexico
Given that the Bay of Campeche coast has never experienced a hurricane as strong as Karl, its impact is likely to cause major damage to a 50-mile wide coastal area beginning ten miles north of Veracruz. Fortunately, the coast is not heavily populated there, and is not particularly low-lying, so the 12 - 15 foot storm surge will not be the major concern from Karl. The main concern will be flooding from Karl's torrential rains. The region has been hit by three Category 2 hurricanes over the past 55 years, and two of these storms caused flooding that killed hundreds. The strongest hurricanes in history to affect the region were Item in 1950, with 110 mph winds, Janet in 1955, with 100 mph winds, and Diana of 1990, with 100 mph winds. Flooding from Janet killed over 800 people in Mexico. and flooding from Diana killed at least 139 people. Karl's high winds are also a major concern, and these winds are likely to extensive damage.
Igor
The Hurricane Hunters just left Hurricane Igor, and found that the hurricane has continued to slowly weaken. On their last pass through the eye of Igor at 1:49 pm EDT, an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found a central pressure of 947 mb. The eyewall was missing a chunk on its southwest side. Top winds at the surface as seen by their SFMR instrument were barely Category 1 strength, 76 mph, though the aircraft did see 117 mph winds at 10,000 feet, which suggests the surface winds were probably of Category 2 strength, 105 mph.
Figure 4. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 10:50 am EDT on Thursday, September 16, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
Igor's impact on Bermuda
Hurricane warnings are now flying for Bermuda, and tropical storm force winds will arrive at the island late Saturday night. Igor is a huge storm, and tropical storm force winds extend out 290 miles to the north of its center. As the hurricane moves north, it will expand in size, as it takes advantage of the extra spin available at higher latitudes due to Earth's rotation. By Saturday night, Igor's tropical storm force winds are expected to extend outwards 320 miles from the center. Igor will be moving at about 11 - 13 mph during the final 24 hours of its approach to Bermuda, so the island can expect a period of 39+ mph tropical storm force winds to begin near midnight Saturday night--a full 24 hours before the core of Igor arrives. Igor will speed up to about 15 mph as it passes the island near midnight Sunday night, and Bermuda's battering by tropical storm force winds will not be as long as Igor moves away, perhaps 10 hours long. Hurricane force winds will probably extend out about 70 miles from the center when the core of Igor reaches Bermuda, and the island can expect to be pounded by hurricane force winds for up to 6 - 8 hours. In all, Bermuda is likely to suffer a remarkably long 36-hour period of tropical storm force winds, with the potential for many hours of hurricane force winds. Long duration poundings like this are very stressful for buildings, and there is the potential for significant damage on Bermuda. However, buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and if Igor weakens to Category 2 strength, as appears likely, damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. According to AIR Worldwide, "Homes in Bermuda are typically one or two stories and constructed of 'Bermuda Stone,' a locally quarried limestone, or of concrete blocks. Roofs are commonly made of limestone slate tiles cemented together. Commercial buildings, typically of reinforced concrete construction, rarely exceed six stories. In both residential and commercial buildings, window openings are generally small and window shutters are common. These features make Bermuda's building stock quite resistant to winds, and homes are designed to withstand sustained winds of 110 mph and gusts of up to 150 mph."
Bermuda's hurricane history
Igor is similar in strength and projected track to Hurricane Fabian of 2003. Fabian hit Bermuda as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. It was the most damaging hurricane ever to hit the island, with $355 million in damage. Fabian's storm surge killed four people crossing a causeway on the island. These were the first hurricane deaths on Bermuda since 1926. The most powerful hurricane on record to strike Bermuda was the Category 4 Havana-Bermuda Hurricane, which hit on October 22, 1926, with 135 mph winds. The hurricane sank two British warships, claiming 88 lives, but no one was killed on the island. The deadliest hurricane to affect the island occurred on September 12, 1839, when a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds and an 11-foot storm surge hit, tearing off the roofs of hundreds of buildings and wrecking several ships. An estimated 100 people were killed (source: Encyclopedia of Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones, by David Longshore.)
Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, is disorganized, but has the potential for some slow development over the next few days. The NOGAPS model develops this wave into a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday.
I'll have a new post on Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It doesn't take much out there and needs to be watched.
I think it comes from the tail end of a series of troughs and cold fronts pushed south by the Low that is going to form from whats left of Igor and julia and the trough that picks them up.
Here you can see the start at the very tail end.. going to earlier models you can watch that trough being pushed down all the way from the Mid north atlantic. Basically keep an eye on the trough left by Igor which will be extended by the large High pressure area pulled down behind him over the CONUS.
Ecologically - LA, Mississippi, and the Panhandle could suffer again & even more Toxic damage to their shoreline..though getting the carpet of oil off the floor of the Gulf maybe better for the Gulf.....not sure any one really knows...we've never had this problem before
I just remember that there was alot of discussion at the time about Alex being a more monsoonal type storm. You would know better than I, and you are correct about the formation of the storms in that area.
I will have to ask Levi about his take on Alex and the monsoonal development, he was the one who mentioned it yesterday.
Just have to see how it all plays out. Climatology favored area.
Thanks Sailing, I'll go back and look for what you've pointed out. To the/my untrained eye, sometimes it's hard to pick out what you need to see!
Bermuda took a hit a few years ago. I remember watching the airport observations and the winds near or above 100 mph.
The 8 a.m. discussion is one of the more detailed and specific ones I've seen in a while, I guess because the expectation of landfall is now there....
THE LONG-TERM
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/11. IGOR IS SITUATED SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 35N...AND THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY
ALL OF THE MODELS TO WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST
OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IGOR WILL TURN
NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS ALONG 65W ON SUNDAY AND PASS VERY NEAR
BERMUDA BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.
Also fascinating is that even if Igor continued on a 310 heading and hit NC instead of Bermuda, it's so big Bermuda will still experience tropical storm force winds as it passed..... that's one helluva storm.....
Finally, it looks like the latest invest is headed towards Lisa status. Is this going to be our last CV storm?
There are ALWAYS pattern changes. Especially as the season change and the CONUS is now heading quickly into Fall. That means stronger frontal systems bringing down large high pressure system as well as stalled fronts. While waves will still come off Africa the best odds of storm are soon going to be stalled front and disturbances caused by the interaction of larger air masses over the GOM as well as the fact that the large high pressure systems will keep any storm the forms south south but also block the eastern US.
The storm tracks from here on out will be really dependent on the timing of frontal systems.
Also looks like the AB ridge will stay split by the trough for a bit so any CV storm that forms earlier should get pulled up into the mid Atlantic but a southern storm will march into the Carib and GOM
Man that guy is huge!
GFS has been showing consistency and now is ECMWF turn.
Not sure why CMC and NOGAPS are still trying to develop energy from the Colombian low, but will sure bares to be watched if moisture starts to increase across the S Carib surging northward.
Julia'll be sleeping with the fishes very soon.
I was kinda wondering the same thing..I look away for minute and everything goes crazy in here....someone want to "mail" me and let me in on the scoop.
And could someone tell Mother Nature to bring me a couple of rain showers...I am 10" short here on the Upper Texas Coast and me and my water bill need some relief...
Don't trust everything you hear on the news, maam.
Welcome. There also may be some effect/enhancement/crossover from the Pacific side.
So you may want to look at the models from the Pacific. Someone mentioned a kelvin wave coming through but mostly it looks like the tail end of everything for the next week ends up down there to form a low which becomes the Storm in the 200HR+ GFS
I was talking about the satellite image...But he looks big on the video as well.
lol
I'm not going to do any nail-biting over something ten days out. It's too far away and nothing is showing yet. If you're prepared and have plans set, you don't need to be. Impending doom forecasts ten days out are not good when there are newbies coming here.
Bermuda is a beautiful island. I hope they all stay well and are safe.
Same as before.
No 94L yet.
Thanks. I was looking for this link in my faves; couldn't find it.
Radar looks ominous.
I think we'll have to wait awhile as it is only 4:45 a.m. in AK, unless he's still up!
OK, forgot about where he lives, thanks
Ya'll have a good one.
To my peeps in BDA, u guys stay safe! I hope u get all ur preps done in time and keep power for as long as possible. [50 hours is a looooog time......]
There we go... yet I expect 94L to slowly drift W to WNW for a while. Steering current not conductive at this time for a quick displacement.
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