Karl near hurricane strength; Igor intensifying again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:00 (GMT)

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Tropical Storm Karl is back over water after popping off the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula early this morning. Despite being a small storm, Karl managed to keep a remarkable degree of organization during its crossing of the Yucatan. Karl has already regained all of its lost strength, and is near hurricane intensity. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently in Karl, and at 8:47am EDT found winds at 5,000 feet of 85 mph, which suggest winds near 65 - 70 mph were occurring at the surface. The aircraft noted that Karl had built an eyewall that was open on the north-northeast side. The eye is now apparent in both visible and infrared satellite imagery. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the outer spirals bands of Karl are approaching the coast near Veracruz, and heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches can be expected today along much of Mexico's Bay of Campeche coast.


Figure 1. Image from NASA's Terra satellite taken at 12:40pm EDT Wednesday September 15, 2010 of Tropical Storm Karl over the Yucatan Peninsula. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Karl
Conditions for intensification are ideal in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, with wind shear expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico Friday morning. NHC is giving Karl a 7% chance of reaching Category 3 strength, but the recent data from the Hurricane Hunters suggest that these odds are higher, perhaps 30%. The 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFDL model makes Karl a strong Category 2 hurricane with 105 - 110 mph winds at landfall Friday, and this is a reasonable forecast. Karl is a small storm, and is unlikely to bring any rain or wind to Texas.


Figure 2. Forecast swath of maximum winds from Karl, as predicted by the GFDL model on its 2am EDT (6Z) run this morning. The GFDL is predicting a 50-mile wide stretch of the Mexican coast will receive Category 1 (yellow colors, 64+ knots) or Category 2 (orange colors, 83+ knots) winds. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Igor
Hurricane Igor completed an eyewall replacement cycle early this morning, and has been intensifying. Igor is headed west-northwest to northwest at 7 mph, and this motion will carry the core of the hurricane close to NOAA buoy 41044 between 9 - 11 pm EDT tonight. Top winds at the buoy so far today have been 52 mph, gusting to 65, with a significant wave height of 32 feet (the significant wave height is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves.) The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Igor this afternoon, and we will see then exactly how strong Igor is. Satellite imagery shows that Igor looks a bit ragged on its north side, but the northern eyewall is getting stronger, and the eye is clearing out and contracting--signs of strengthening.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Igor.

Intensity forecast for Igor
Wind shear is low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, and is expected to remain in this range through Saturday morning. Waters are warm, 29°C, and will remain 29°C through Saturday morning. Igor is well armored against any intrusions of dry air for at least the next two days. These conditions should allow Igor to remain at major hurricane status through Saturday afternoon. It is possible the hurricane will undergo another eyewall replacement cycle on Friday or Saturday, where the eyewall collapses and a new eyewall forms from an outer spiral band. This will weaken the hurricane by 10 - 20 mph if it occurs, but Igor may regain its lost intensity once the cycle is over, as it has done after the two eyewall replacement cycles it has already undergone. By Saturday morning, 36 hours before the core of Igor is expected to pass Bermuda's latitude, the trough of low pressure steering Igor northwestwards should bring moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the storm, potentially weakening Igor. The SHIPS models predicts shear will not rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, until after the hurricane reaches the island. Igor will also be tracking over cooler 28°C waters during this period, and substantial weakening by perhaps 20 - 30 mph can be expected about the time Igor arrives at Bermuda. Igor will still probably be at least a Category 2 hurricane on its closest pass by Bermuda on Sunday night, and perhaps a Category 3 storm. NHC is giving Bermuda a 21% chance of experiencing hurricane force winds from Igor, but this probability is likely too low. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 or 2 hurricane conditions for the island on Sunday, with 20 - 30 foot waves in the offshore waters.

Igor's impact on Bermuda
The track forecast for Igor remains unchanged. Igor is moving west-northwest, in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic. This trough will steer Igor to the northwest and north over the next three days, bringing the core of the storm very close to Bermuda late Sunday night. Igor is a huge storm, and tropical storm force winds extend out 270 miles to the north of its center. As the hurricane moves north, it will expand in size, as it takes advantage of the extra spin available at higher latitudes due to Earth's rotation. By Saturday night, Igor's tropical storm force winds are expected to extend outwards 310 miles from the center. Igor will be moving at about 11 - 13 mph during the final 24 hours of its approach to Bermuda, so that island can expect a period of 39+ mph tropical storm force winds to begin near midnight Saturday night--a full 24 hours before the core of Igor arrives. Igor will speed up to about 15 mph as it passes Bermuda near midnight Sunday night. Hurricane force winds will probably extend out about 60 miles from the center then, and the island can expect to be pounded by hurricane force winds for up to 6 - 8 hours if the core of the hurricane tracks over the island. In all, Bermuda is likely to suffer a remarkably long 36-hour period of tropical storm force winds, with the potential for many hours of hurricane force winds. Long-duration poundings like this are very stressful for buildings, and there is the potential for significant damage on Bermuda.

Igor's impact on the rest of the Atlantic
The models have been in substantial agreement over multiple runs that Igor will miss the U.S. and Canadian coasts--with the possible exception of southeast Newfoundland, which the ECMWF model predicts could see a close pass by Igor. The chief danger to the U.S. and Canada will come in the form of high waves. Large swells from Igor have arrived in the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico, and will spread westwards over the next few days. By Saturday, much of the East Coast from northern Florida to Cape Cod Massachusetts can expect waves of 3 - 4 meters (10 - 13 feet), causing dangerous rip currents and significant beach erosion. These waves will continue through Sunday then gradually die down. The latest NOAA marine forecast for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina calls for 7 - 10 foot waves on Saturday, and 9 - 13 foot waves on Sunday.

Julia
Hurricane Julia put on a remarkable and unexpected burst of intensification yesterday morning to become the season's fourth Category 4 storm, but is now on a long steadily decline in intensity. The hurricane is currently over waters right at the lower limit for maintaining a hurricane, 26.5°C (80°F), and is undergoing high shear of 20 - 25 knots. While the shear will abate tonight and the water will warm some, Julia is headed towards some very hostile upper-level winds beginning on Friday. These strong winds, courtesy of the upper level outflow from Hurricane Igor, will bring 30 - 45 knots of wind shear to Julia Friday night through Sunday. The high shear should be enough to rapidly weaken Julia over the weekend. Julia is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 2 - 4 days from now. The GFS and NOGAPS models are suggesting the eastern Caribbean could see a strong tropical disturbance form 6 - 7 days from now.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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1282. juniort
17. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:26 (GMT)
We are having some very strong winds and heavy rains here in barbados.
Member Since: 19.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
1281. lickitysplit
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 22:21 (GMT)
pretty funny read on geology and science:

http://www.examiner.com/science-policy-in-austin/christine-o-donnell-is-deeply-confused-on-geology- and-science
Member Since: 17.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 631
1279. bassis
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:15 (GMT)
Quoting PcolaDan:
Ya'll gonna keep chatting to yourselves or join everyone in the NEW BLOG?


Groth- thats a cool post of the 5 storms at once

quick question does admin have a top number on how many post get censored before they ban for 24 hours

also it looks like "J" is getting her act together in the last couple of frames
Member Since: 8.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 423
1278. PcolaDan
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:12 (GMT)
Ya'll gonna keep chatting to yourselves or join everyone in the NEW BLOG?
Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1277. sunlinepr
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:06 (GMT)
Interesting; another view of 1995 season; Parade storm view...

Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
1276. Grothar
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:01 (GMT)
Quoting hydrus:
Hello Gro..Probably happens quite a bit in the West Pacific.


No Atlantic storms. Here, I will show you. I was quite old at the time, but I do remember it well. Here is an interesting image. I thought atmo could answer this, but I guess he couldn't.



From Max Mayfield:
I recall we had five Atlantic tropical cyclones simultaneously when I was a hurricane forecaster at National Hurricane Center (NHC) in 1995. The NHC best track files from that year between 1200 UTC August 27 to 0000 UTC August 28 show Hurricane Humberto, Tropical Storm Iris (soon to become a hurricane), Tropical Depression Jerry, Tropical Depression Twelve (soon to become Tropical Storm Karen), and Tropical Depression Thirteen (soon to become Hurricane Luis) all ongoing at the same time. Unfortunately, I don’t have a satellite image from that exact time period, but Idid find some from just before and after.
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23755
1275. sunlinepr
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:00 (GMT)
Thanks God, that monster did'nt touch us... only high tides, maybe some rain, but mostly hot sun.....
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
1272. hydrus
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:57 (GMT)
Quoting Grothar:
How many times have there been 5 tropical cyclones at the same time? Trick question.
Hello Gro..Probably happens quite a bit in the West Pacific.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19608
1271. Grothar
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:56 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:
that's not nice...


It is answerable. Go ahead.
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23755
1270. sunlinepr
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:55 (GMT)
The link for Levi is:
http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/Levi32

Quoting shawn26:
Did Levi do a tropical tidbit today? If so, can somebody post it?
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
1269. atmoaggie
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:54 (GMT)
Quoting Grothar:
How many times have there been 5 tropical cyclones at the same time? Trick question.
that's not nice...
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1268. 1900hurricane
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:54 (GMT)
Quoting Cotillion:
Atmo is right:

Look:

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHELIA BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...STILL NOT
MOVING...

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2005

...MARIA WEAKENS A LITTLE...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.5 WEST OR ABOUT 675
MILES...1085 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
AND ABOUT 810 MILES...1300 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

That isn't necessarily the data that goes into HURRDAT though. The final data is in the post storm analysis and sometimes changes from the operational advisory.
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11569
1267. atmoaggie
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:54 (GMT)
Quoting Hurricanes101:
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 08 2005

...MARIA STILL A HURRICANE...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST OR ABOUT 590 MILES...
950 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 1070
MILES...1720 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.



HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...NATE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...
270 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.



HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHELIA BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...STILL NOT
MOVING...
Well, without a post-storm adjustment to intensity at those times, well, then 2005 does qualify.

Hmmm. Might have to carve out some more time to look closer.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1266. SLU
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:53 (GMT)
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I just looked at the archive and Maria, Nate and Ophelia were all hurricanes at the 5pm advisory on September 8th, 2005


It may be so on the operational data but have a look at the post season analysis to see if they existed at the same time too. There might have been some changes.
Member Since: 13.07.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
1265. AtHomeInTX
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:53 (GMT)
Quoting angiest:


GFS continues to develop a Caribbean/Gulf system.


Ah ok thanks. :) It's hard to tell from what I have to look at but the EURO still looks to be trying to bring something to the TX/LA area at the end of their run. It shows as a faint yellow blip on this model. Lol.





Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
1264. weathermancer
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:53 (GMT)
Quoting sunlinepr:
Igor's N outflow if blocking the trough that is supposed to move Julia to NE...



Almost looks like some southerly spinnage.
Member Since: 29.08.2009 Posts: 12 Comments: 482
1263. Grothar
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:52 (GMT)
How many times have there been 5 tropical cyclones at the same time? Trick question.
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23755
1262. xcool
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:52 (GMT)
newwwwwww blog
Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1261. belizeit
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:52 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 10.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 915
1260. atmoaggie
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:52 (GMT)
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I just looked at the archive and Maria, Nate and Ophelia were all hurricanes at the 5pm advisory on September 8th, 2005
Hmm.

By WU's page, Ophelia gained hurricane between 18 Z and 00 Z on the 9th.
And Maria lost it about the same time.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1259. Hurricanes101
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:52 (GMT)
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 08 2005

...MARIA STILL A HURRICANE...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST OR ABOUT 590 MILES...
950 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 1070
MILES...1720 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.



HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...NATE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...
270 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.



HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHELIA BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...STILL NOT
MOVING...
Member Since: 10.03.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
1258. BiloxiIsle
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:52 (GMT)
Quoting Jeff9641:
It looks as if the GFS is narrowing Lisa from LA to FL on the last few runs.
Not what I want to hear. But, it has plenty of time to change.
Member Since: 11.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 149
1257. StormSurgeon
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:51 (GMT)
Quoting FLdewey:
Blog server is getting a lot of traffic... s-l-o-w-i-n-g down to a crawl.

Must be all those WU mails.


That and having to process all that flagging.
Member Since: 1.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
1256. RayRayfromLa
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:51 (GMT)
Quoting hurricanehanna:
afternoon all.....oy vey....

anywho, I keep hearing talk about the GOM/Caribbean system....what sort of time frame are we talking about??? Is this being generated from models? or is something already developing?


IMO it is ridiculous for people to even comment about something may or may not happen 10 days out.
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 89
1255. CaicosRetiredSailor
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:51 (GMT)
HURRICANE IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHES IGOR...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 58.1W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
Member Since: 12.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
1254. Neapolitan
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:51 (GMT)
Bermuda is, of course, the lonely little yellow dot toward the top left corner. Yikes...

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

Tropical weather-related image


And a twofer:

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

Tropical weather-related image


Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
1253. unf97
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:51 (GMT)
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Igor's eyewall seems to be taking a pretty serious beating:



There is still some westerly shear that is impacting Igor, which has resulted in some deterioration of the western side of the eye and on the western quadrant in general.

NHC discussion 5p.m.

THE EXTENSION OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF IGOR IS STILL PRODUCING ABOUT
15 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A REDUCTION IN THE
SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES AWAY...WHICH
COULD ALLOW AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IN THE
SHORT-TERM. THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IGOR WILL BE MOVING INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT OF GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...AND OVER COOLER WATERS BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
Member Since: 25.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1252. PensacolaDoug
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:50 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
1251. PSLFLCaneVet
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:50 (GMT)
Quoting shawn26:
Did Levi do a tropical tidbit today? If so, can somebody post it?
You can get to it through the member blog section. Very well done, as usual.
Member Since: 23.07.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
1250. Cotillion
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:50 (GMT)
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 08 2005

...MARIA STILL A HURRICANE...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST OR ABOUT 590 MILES...
950 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 1070
MILES...1720 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHELIA BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...STILL NOT
MOVING...

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...NATE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1249. sunlinepr
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:49 (GMT)
Igor's N outflow if blocking the trough that is supposed to move Julia to NE...

Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
1248. CybrTeddy
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:49 (GMT)
Karl up to 80.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23018
1246. StormJunkie
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:49 (GMT)
Dr Masters has a new, fresh Blog up.

Hot of the press class act ANALYSIS.
Member Since: 17.08.2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
1244. atmoaggie
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:49 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:

Sept 8, 03 UTC is the last hurricane advisory for Maria.
21 UTC is the first for Opelia.
What are you seeing that I'm not?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/index.shtml


Hmm, not seeing what I saw before.

Looking...pretty sure 2004 and 2005 did not have 3 simultaneous hurricanes (has been researched before).
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1243. CaicosRetiredSailor
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:49 (GMT)
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
400 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

...KARL STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...HURRICANE WARNING
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 93.7W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PALMA
SOLA SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH
OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO.
Member Since: 12.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
1242. BDAwx
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:49 (GMT)
Hurricane Watches are supposed to be issued for Bermuda tonight...
Member Since: 3.08.2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 525
1241. Hurricanes101
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:48 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:
Sept 8, 03 UTC is the last hurricane advisory for Maria.
21 UTC is the first for Opelia.

What are you seeing that I'm not?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/index.shtml


I just looked at the archive and Maria, Nate and Ophelia were all hurricanes at the 5pm advisory on September 8th, 2005
Member Since: 10.03.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
1240. shawn26
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:48 (GMT)
Did Levi do a tropical tidbit today? If so, can somebody post it?
Member Since: 3.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 203
1238. Cotillion
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:48 (GMT)
Quoting angiest:
So Igor is cat 3 now. When was the last time he was that "weak?"
He's never been a Cat 3 per se, so... 11am on the 12th (he was a Cat 2).
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1235. hurricanehanna
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:47 (GMT)
Quoting angiest:


GFS has been developing a storm in the Caribbean on almost every run for nearly a week. Most of those runs have been into the Gulf (not all, however), and the strengths have varied. The timeframe is within the next 1-2 weeks, very roughly. It sounds like other models have started to catch on to this.

interesting....thanks!
Member Since: 5.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3480
1233. angiest
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:47 (GMT)
So Igor is cat 3 now. When was the last time he was that "weak?"
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1232. Hurricanes101
16. syyskuuta 2010 klo 20:47 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:
Sept 8, 03 UTC is the last hurricane advisory for Maria.
21 UTC is the first for Opelia.

What are you seeing that I'm not?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/index.shtml


unisys track says Maria was a hurricane until 21Z on September 8th
Member Since: 10.03.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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