Major flooding in Austin from Hermine

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:24 (GMT)

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Major flooding is occurring in the Austin, Texas region after Tropical Storm Hermine dumped an estimated 10 - 15 inches of rain over the past 24 hours. The flash flood warning for Austin from the National Weather Service at 4am this morning summarized the danger:

"Areas along I-35 and the Balcones Escarpment in and around the Austin Metro area will continue to experience a very dangerous flash flood event over the next few hours. Numerous evacuations and high water rescues have already been reported by the media and law enforcement personnel."

As wunderground's Dr. Rob Carver reports in his blog this morning, hardest hit was the area ten miles north-northwest of Austin, where an NWS cooperative station measured 10.11" of rain yesterday. The rains have swollen the South Fork of the San Gabriel River at Georgetown, Texas to 50-year flood heights.

Hermine has dissipated, but its heavy rains live on, and are now affecting the Dallas/Fort Worth region, where 1 - 3 inch rainfall amounts have been common. Hermine's rains are still lingering over the hard-hit Austin area, but should remain under one inch for the remainder of the morning. However, this afternoon, additional significant rains are possible near Austin as the sun's heat drives thunderstorm development in the very moist airmass over Central Texas.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Austin, Texas area shows that over fifteen inches of rain may have fallen in the region ten miles north-northwest of the city.

Gaston's remains no longer a threat
Dry air has significantly disrupted the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, which are now over the Dominican Republic. NHC is now giving Gaston a 0% chance of developing, and no models are calling for development. It appears Gaston is finally dead.

Invest 91 off the coast of Africa
A large, well-organized tropical wave (91L) is just off the coast of Africa, near the Cape Verdes Islands, and is bringing sustained winds of 30 mph this morning to Praia in the southeast Cape Verdes. 91L is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear will decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Thursday. Water temperatures are warm, 28°C, and 91L has plenty of spin. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of 91L, and should not be an impediment to development over the next few days. The models are pretty unanimous about developing 91L into Tropical Storm Igor sometime in the next 1 - 3 days. NHC is giving 91L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. The GFDL model predicts 91L will be Hurricane Igor five days from now. The storm will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting 91L several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 10 days from now. History shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at 91L's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors a continuation of the sort of tracks we saw for Danielle, Earl, and Fiona, with threats to the northern Lesser Antilles, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Canada.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L (Igor?)

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 5 - 6 days from now.

Death toll in Guatemala from Tropical Depression 11E rises to 54
In the Eastern Pacific, heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11E have killed at least 54 people in Guatemala, with many more missing and feared dead. The heavy rains triggered nearly 200 landslides and collapses, causing damages near $500 million. Fifteen landslides hit portions of the Inter-American Highway, burying a number of vehicles and a bus. Tropical Depression 11E formed on September 3, moved over Mexico and Guatemala, and dissipated by the next day. Remnants from the depression may have played a role in the formation of Tropical Storm Hermine in the Gulf of Mexico on September 5.

Guatemala is still recovering from the impacts of Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed 287 people in the country and did over $1 billion in damage in May. This September's heavy rains in Guatemala come on the heels of the rainiest August in Guatemala's history, according to preliminary data from the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH). Rain was more than 100% above average in many parts of the country, and more than 200% above average in some regions. September and October are historically Guatemala's rainiest months, and any additional tropical cyclones which affect the country can be expected to cause more serious flooding.


Figure 3. Satellite image from Friday, September 3, 2010, showing Tropical Depression 11E over Mexico and Guatemala. Image credit: NASA.

Next post
I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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3081. stormpetrol
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 23:10 (GMT)
Quoting Vero1:
DestinJeff -- on 10 Sept which side of the Peak is IGOR on?

AS I understand September 10 is an arbitrary average date and the peak of hurricane can either occur between late August to the first week of October, but speaking arbitrarily Igor would be on the down side which is neither here nor there!
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
3080. charlestonscnanny
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:21 (GMT)
Quoting ackee:
How strong will 92L get

A strong TS
B CAT ONE HURRICAE
C major hurricane
D TD

C
Member Since: 5.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 107
3079. TampaTom
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:23 (GMT)
Definitions from the NHC's glossary - some interesting reading:

Direct Hit:
A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical cyclone's track (looking in the direction of motion), a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind. Compare indirect hit, strike.

Indirect Hit:
Generally refers to locations that do not experience a direct hit from a tropical cyclone, but do experience hurricane force winds (either sustained or gusts) or tides of at least 4 feet above normal.

Landfall:
The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water. Compare direct hit, indirect hit, and strike.

Strike:
For any particular location, a hurricane strike occurs if that location passes within the hurricane's strike circle, a circle of 125 n mi diameter, centered 12.5 n mi to the right of the hurricane center (looking in the direction of motion). This circle is meant to depict the typical extent of hurricane force winds, which are approximately 75 n mi to the right of the center and 50 n mi to the left.

Member Since: 20.06.2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1050
3078. twhcracker
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:12 (GMT)
Quoting angiest:


Everyone in the Caribbean and on the Gulf Coast needs to watch it closely.


isnt there a deal where a cat five cant stay a cat five for longer than so many days? Excuse me if its an ignorant questiojn... but that could save us.... it getting big so early off the coast of africa?
Member Since: 30.07.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
3077. jeffs713
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:08 (GMT)
3052.

Since I apparently can't quote today...

WHO DAT DEY SAY GONNA BEAT DEM SAINTS?
Member Since: 3.08.2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5793
3076. Jax82
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 14:04 (GMT)
good morning CONUS
Member Since: 2.09.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
3074. CoffinWood
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:48 (GMT)
Quoting kmanislander:


If it develops into a storm the likelihood of attaining Cat 5 status in the Caribbean is very high, especially if it moves to the WNW. Anyway, let's see what it does in the next 24 hours first. This year has seen several systems fail to achieve their true potential, let's hope 92L is also one of them, although I have a bad feeling about this one.



I listen when Kman gets bad feelings. The force is strong in this one.
Member Since: 19.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 113
3071. weathermanwannabe
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:47 (GMT)
Quoting ackee:
How strong will 92L get

A strong TS
B CAT ONE HURRICAE
C major hurricane
D TD


My vote for C in about 4-5 days.....
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8310
3069. GeoffreyWPB
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:46 (GMT)
New Blog.
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
3068. Patrap
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:46 (GMT)
Dr. Masters has Posted a NEW Entry Sports Fans..

ya gonna wear out dem F 5 key's..

Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125717
3067. seajunkie
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:45 (GMT)
Good Morning Senior Chief!!

Semper Paratus

Dave
Member Since: 4.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 46
3066. bayeloi
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:45 (GMT)
Quoting FLdewey:
It's all fun and games until someone sees an eye.


That's hilarious!!
Member Since: 18.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
3065. hurricane23
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:43 (GMT)
If 92L really gets going and sneaks past Hispaniola-- this has a great chance to be a big cyclone. The waters are so ridiculously warm and warm at depth-- with the right vortex, rapid intensification is so much more likely than normal.
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
3064. kmanislander
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:43 (GMT)
Out now
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
3061. victoria780
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:43 (GMT)
Quoting cat5hurricane:
MUCH more likely to see a cat 2 (or even low-end cat 3) than a cat 5....if this system even materializes in the first place!! We'll see.
as long as it dont come to S.Texas Im starting to mildew
Member Since: 20.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326
3060. FloridaHeat
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:42 (GMT)
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


I sorry for your loss, RIP fishy.


he was 6 years old and i think that is old for a fish
Member Since: 31.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357
3059. kmanislander
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:41 (GMT)
Quoting Cotillion:
Well, we're talking about 'hits', not landfall. Landfall is slightly different (when the centre of the centre crosses landfall).

Many islands do not get technical landfall, but 'direct hits'. In other words, it's close enough and the people on those islands are getting basically the same conditions anyway.


The eye of Ivan passed 25 miles South of us but the hurricane did US$3 billion dollars worth of damage here including submerging about 70% of Grand Cayman, destroyed about 80% of all motor vehicles on the island and damaged or destroyed close to 80% of all buildings as well.

The technical definition of landfall may need revisiting.
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
3058. Amanda44
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:41 (GMT)
Thank you kmanislander!
Member Since: 19.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
3057. rmbjoe1954
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:40 (GMT)
Quoting FloridaHeat:
i just had a burial at toilet for my poor fishy

rip sir reginald poopums iii


I sorry for your loss, RIP fishy.
Member Since: 16.06.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1015
3056. FloridaHeat
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:40 (GMT)
Quoting Cotillion:
Well, we're talking about 'hits', not landfall. Landfall is slightly different (when the centre of the centre crosses land).

Many islands do not get technical landfall, but 'direct hits'. In other words, it's close enough and the people on those islands are getting basically the same conditions anyway.


can you elaborate this is what i was trying to ask earlier when i asked it islands counted as landfall
Member Since: 31.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357
3051. Cotillion
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:38 (GMT)
Well, we're talking about 'hits', not landfall. Landfall is slightly different (when the centre of the centre crosses land).

Many islands do not get technical landfall, but 'direct hits'. In other words, it's close enough and the people on those islands are getting basically the same conditions anyway.
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
3050. kmanislander
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:37 (GMT)
Quoting Amanda44:
Can anyone enlighten me as to what the John Hope Rule is? I tried googling it, but was directed to this blog, where it is mentioned but never explained.
Thanks!


Simply put, John Hope often stated that if a tropical system did not develop before reaching the Eastern Caribbean it would most likely not do so until reaching the Western Caribbean.
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
3049. RufusBaker
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:37 (GMT)
Wow could 92 do a Charley track?? I see a front coming across the country
Member Since: 5.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 578
3048. kmanislander
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:35 (GMT)
Back later
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
3047. Amanda44
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:35 (GMT)
Can anyone enlighten me as to what the John Hope Rule is? I tried googling it, but was directed to this blog, where it is mentioned but never explained.
Thanks!
Member Since: 19.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
3046. A4Guy
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:34 (GMT)
Quoting FLdewey:
It's all fun and games until someone sees an eye.


Best post I have read in a while. Thank you!
Member Since: 23.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 655
3045. kshipre1
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:34 (GMT)
Storm,

good morning. couple of quick questions for you. First, with the forward speed of Igor slowing and now moving north, when the high builds back in in a few days, do you see a potential pick up in forward speed enough where it could miss the strong trough at 60W?

Second, when wunderground posts Invest systems, why does it now show models like the GFS, EMCWF, UKMET, NOGAPS, etc..? thanks
Member Since: 12.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
3044. kmanislander
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:33 (GMT)
Tobago Crown Point, TD (Airport)
Updated: 32 min 55 sec ago
26 °C
Overcast
Humidity: 83%
Dew Point: 23 °C
Wind: 24 km/h / 6.7 m/s from the West
Pressure: 1013 hPa (Rising)
Visibility: 9.0 kilometers
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds: Few 213 m


Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
3043. Sfloridacat5
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:33 (GMT)
Radar 92L

Member Since: 16.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4809
3039. WxLogic
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:32 (GMT)
Quoting hurricane23:
Ridge protects the Gulf and the trof catches the long CV trackers.


Indeed... being noticing a deep Ridge getting established across the C GOM. In my current thinking if 92L was to group deep enough and the E CONUS TROF was to delay on lifting out or dig S far enough it could bring the possibility of a farther N track like NOGAPS, CMC, NAM are showing. Else, if the ridge builds further enough E to the extreme W ATL then we'll definitely see 92L threatening C America.

Like always is a wait and see deal until 92L organizes enough and to see how steering patterns start to shape up over the weekend.
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
3038. Cotillion
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:32 (GMT)
Quoting scott39:
No it didnt! It went by it. They never received any Cat 3 winds or higher!Look, I would never take away from any land mass being affected by any TC. I simply stated that there could be the potiential From 92L, to be the first MAJOR hurricane to hit land for this season.


It's still a major. Whether it had the winds or not, I do not know, but the northern most island was in the eyewall when it was a Category 3, intensifying into a Category 4. The waves were bad enough.
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
3036. FloridaHeat
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:32 (GMT)
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


What? There are people and property on these islands, right? Of course it counts.


ok i wasnt sure but that makes sense
Member Since: 31.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357
3035. angiest
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:31 (GMT)
Quoting kmanislander:


Really ?. You have obviously not seen how many storms have undergone RI in the NW Caribbean.


Let's see. Not necessarily cat 5s, but these storms exploded in the northern and NW Caribbean: Gustav (2008), maybe Dennis (2005), maybe Emily (2005), Ivan (2004, re-intensified to cat 5), Isidore (2002), Camille (1969, intensification cut-off by landfall in Cuba).
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
3034. weathermanwannabe
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:31 (GMT)
And speaking of heavy convection, 92L is firing some in the area of the disturbance which is headed towards the Grenadines passing between Grenada and St. Vincent.
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8310
3033. jeffs713
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:31 (GMT)
3018.

Do people live on them?

Then yes.
Member Since: 3.08.2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5793
3031. rmbjoe1954
9. syyskuuta 2010 klo 13:30 (GMT)
Quoting FloridaHeat:


do little islands really count as landfall though


What? There are people and property on these islands, right? Of course it counts.
Member Since: 16.06.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1015

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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