Earl's rain bands move over New England; Gaston regenerating?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:09 (GMT)

Share this Blog
1
+

Hurricane Earl has remained roughly constant in intensity over the past six hours, as it heads north-northeast at 20 mph towards New England. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters, at 1:14pm EDT, found the pressure had remained constant since late morning, at 961 mb. Long range radar out of Long Island shows that Earl's outermost spiral bands have already brought as much as one inch of rain to portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with lesser amounts on Long Island and in Connecticut.


Figure 1. Afternoon radar image from the Long Island, New York radar.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is still expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear continues to show that shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England, and have 65 mph winds on Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. I have no substantive changes to make to the impacts likely for New England and Canada that I discussed in this morning's post.


Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph (13 kt) asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 20 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 65 kt (75 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (northwest) side were just 52 knots (60 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona has changed little this afternoon. Satellite loops continue to show that Fiona is a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and will probably destroy the storm on Saturday.


Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gaston may be regenerating
Recent satellite imagery continues to show that Gaston's remains are re-organizing. Gaston has a broad surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air lies to the west and north of Gaston's remains, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where the atmosphere is relatively moist, so this shear will be less harmful than usual for development. NHC is giving Gaston a 50% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday; I put these odds higher, at 60%. The GFS, UKMET, and GFDL models develop Gaston and predict it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and HWRF models also develop Gaston, but predict a slower motion, bringing the storm near the northern Lesser Antilles 6 - 7 days from now. Given the steady increase in organization of Gaston's remains today and high degree of model support for regeneration, I expect Gaston will be a tropical storm again, early next week.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verdes Islands, is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped to 20 - 25 knots, and will decrease to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Saturday through Monday. The system will move over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain squalls. NHC is giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Several models develop 99L into a tropical depression, but head it northwest into a region of very high wind shear that destroys the system by Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC (OBXNCWEATHER)
Gas station in Nags Head, NC that fell victim to Hurricane Earl's winds.
Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC
Earl's waves (StormJunkie)
Earl's waves

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1443 - 1393

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29Blog Index

1443. FLDART1
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:02 (GMT)
Quoting reedzonemyhero:
Levi, upon reading many of your posts over the last several days I am greatly disappointed that so many people place their faith in your forecasts. I for one do believe that Ex-Guston will if fact evolve into a formidable tropical cyclone and has the potential to affect multiple land masses. Your reasoning makes no sense and gives folks a false sense of security.
First of all as an Emergency Manager I dont "put faith" in any particular individual or agency forecast. I base decisions based upon all available data from a multitude of sources. I for one read the reasoning of those like LEVI, STORM W, Etc. And while I may not always agree with them 100% I find their reasoning to be sound and informed. In a nutshell, NO FORECAST IS SET IN STONE...First rule of EM, expect the unexpected... I appreciate the contributions made by many of those here in the WU. Most of the time I lurk in silence, I just can't stand by and watch one of these folks get bashed...
Member Since: 4.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 201
1442. catastropheadjuster
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 18:55 (GMT)
Quoting reedzonemyhero:
Levi, upon reading many of your posts over the last several days I am greatly disappointed that so many people place their faith in your forecasts. I for one do believe that Ex-Guston will if fact evolve into a formidable tropical cyclone and has the potential to affect multiple land masses. Your reasoning makes no sense and gives folks a false sense of security.


You know what why don't u put your money where your mouth is. What do you come up with or have to say, uh nothing, but poor mouth the good folks on this blog. At least Levi and Storm and a few others actually take there time and sit and analyze the models,SST,The highs and all that stuff to give us a ideal of what could happen, no one has written it in stone. Plus you don't have to read it, no one is making you.
sheri
Member Since: 24.08.2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3642
1441. txraysfan
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 18:02 (GMT)
Oh, and good morning, afternoon or evening-depending on where you are
Member Since: 17.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
1440. txraysfan
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 18:01 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:


Sorry, good morning, lol.
Just to let you know, anybody learning in here, your tropical tidbits are the best!! Explained things well enough that as unversed as I am, can understand.
Member Since: 17.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
1439. oceanblues32
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 17:15 (GMT)
i guess everyone is gone.....
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 207
1438. charlestonscnanny
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:54 (GMT)
Quoting 1fromnovasscotia:
some large branches and some tress are beginning to fall in halifax and dartmouth nova scotia now were beginning to reach our peak here in the city.

Thanks for keeping us informed on Earl in NS. Hope ya'll are safe and get your power back soon
Member Since: 5.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 107
1437. oceanblues32
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:48 (GMT)
miamihurricane is that what i am seeing gaston if it makes it possibly hitting miami just a little concerned me living in dania beach just north of miami
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 207
1436. MiamiHurricanes09
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:47 (GMT)
The 12z GFS racap:

Gaston: Turns into a hurricane. Passes over the northern Lesser Antilles. Then goes just north of Hispañiola and Cuba. Then makes landfall over south Florida. Makes a second landfall over the Florida panhandle.

Hermine: Develops in the BOC and tracks over Mexico.

Igor: Develops into a major hurricane and does a track very similar to Earl.

Julia: Becomes a hurricane; stays out to sea the entire run.

Karl: Becomes a weak tropical storm and then dissipates.

Lisa: Becomes a weak tropical storm at the end of the run.

The GFS is scary huh?
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1435. reedzonemyhero
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:45 (GMT)
Levi, upon reading many of your posts over the last several days I am greatly disappointed that so many people place their faith in your forecasts. I for one do believe that Ex-Guston will if fact evolve into a formidable tropical cyclone and has the potential to affect multiple land masses. Your reasoning makes no sense and gives folks a false sense of security.
Member Since: 11.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 74
1434. MiamiHurricanes09
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:42 (GMT)
A happy ending for JFV. We got Hurricane Gaston making landfall over Miami. LOL.

240 hours:

Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1433. oceanblues32
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:42 (GMT)
any thoughts on Gaston and where he may end up hopefully not southeast florida but was just wondering on anyones thoughts!!
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 207
1431. Krycek1984
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:38 (GMT)
Quoting winter123:
What do you know, lake effect rain up by Watertown. I commented yesterday how it reminded me of a frontal system you'd see in november and I guess I was right.



Totally...same here in Cleveland...it's chilly here today and lake effect clouds!!!
Member Since: 5.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 285
1429. Levi32
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:37 (GMT)
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I usually agree with you, but here I will not

the NHC has not mentioned once that TD 11-E and the area in the BOC are linked and the area in the BOC showed up on the TWO last night before TD 11-E even made landfall

I think the area of disturbed weather is not from TD 11-E, but that the former TD could help aid in development

Models have been latching on, so I see no reason why we could not see some slow development


I was puzzled as well why the NHC did not mention TD 11E in the TWO, but looking at visible loops of the area I see a pretty large circulation area associated with TD 11E and it extends into the southern BOC quite easily. I don't see two separate entities at all.

An ASCAT pass will shortly be available but CIMSS 850mb vorticity shows the concentration of spin over Mexico in association with TD 11E, with some vorticity over the southern BOC extending northward from that, clearly having some relation with TD 11E.

The rapid-scan product doesn't even have any vorticity extending into the BOC.



Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26454
1428. MiamiHurricanes09
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:37 (GMT)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
1-2-3

12z GFS


174 hours out
192 hours:

Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1427. hydrus
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:37 (GMT)
Quoting DestinJeff:
This is the week!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!





We are soooooo all doom.
If I lived on the Yucatan Peninsula or western Cuba, I would watch the tropics closely.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19497
1426. MoltenIce
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:36 (GMT)
Aww, look how cute Gaston is. xD
Member Since: 11.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 768
1425. TheDawnAwakening
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:36 (GMT)
Great thoughts Levi and Kman, always interested to see what you guys have to say. On the SAL product, the dry air layer is diminishing near Gaston which should favor a more steady intensification sooner, rather than later. So right now I think the NHC should keep the 70% chance going, given that he has a well defined low level circulation and shear is subsiding.
Member Since: 21.10.2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
1424. MiamiHurricanes09
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:35 (GMT)
Convection continues to fire over the westward quadrant. I gotta say, ex-Gaston is a pretty cute lil' guy (LOL)...too bad he won't stay that way if he makes it into the Caribbean.

Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1423. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:34 (GMT)
DOC HAS A NEW BLOG POSTED
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52146
1422. Levi32
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:34 (GMT)
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Levi, what is your thought on this?

Quoting TexasHurricane:
Levi, what is your thought on this?



I posted about it on the last page:

"The Bay of Campeche seems mostly unlikely to see any development over the next 3 days. The thunderstorms are being generated by TD 11E, which has moved inland over the middle of Mexico from the eastern Pacific. Its circulation can be seen clearly on visible. The flow would support a northwest movement which would keep the depression mostly over Mexico, and although the center may get pretty close to the coast or even skirt the water, I doubt it will be able to develop.

However, what should be watched for is a dissipation of the main center and a reformation to the north over the Bay of Campeche, which is certainly possible, in which case it would be a different story as upper winds are quite favorable. But for now, if TD 11E's center remains intact, I don't think it's too big of a problem."
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26454
1421. Hurricanes101
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:33 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:
The Bay of Campeche seems mostly unlikely to see any development over the next 3 days. The thunderstorms are being generated by TD 11E, which has moved inland over the middle of Mexico from the eastern Pacific. Its circulation can be seen clearly on visible. The flow would support a northwest movement which would keep the depression mostly over Mexico, and although the center may get pretty close to the coast or even skirt the water, I doubt it will be able to develop.

However, what should be watched for is a dissipation of the main center and a reformation to the north over the Bay of Campeche, which is certainly possible, in which case it would be a different story as upper winds are quite favorable. But for now, if TD 11E's center remains intact, I don't think it's too big of a problem.


I usually agree with you, but here I will not

the NHC has not mentioned once that TD 11-E and the area in the BOC are linked and the area in the BOC showed up on the TWO last night before TD 11-E even made landfall

I think the area of disturbed weather is not from TD 11-E, but that the former TD could help aid in development

Models have been latching on, so I see no reason why we could not see some slow development
Member Since: 10.03.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
1420. Stormchaser2007
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:33 (GMT)
1-2-3

12z GFS


174 hours out
Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1419. SunnyDaysFla
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:33 (GMT)
Thanks Levi---I sure miss your "Tropical Tidbits". Hope you are enjoying your college experience.
Member Since: 19.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
1418. pottery
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:33 (GMT)
Good Lunch-Time, all.
A little rain is falling, which is nice. It was as hot as Hades this morning.
Gaston seems to be Ominous, to me.
But I still think that he will chug a bit more north, and end up just north of the Islands.
If he gets into the Carib Sea, Bad Stuff will occur.
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
1417. Levi32
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:32 (GMT)
Quoting washingtonian115:
Levi don't look now but I see an area of low pressure about to exit the coast at a low lattitude over africa.Do you think that systems of that lattitude could still recurve?


Of course they can, but obviously systems that come off Africa at a lower latitude have a smaller probability of recurving. Eventually one of these Cape Verde systems will make it all the way across. Gaston could be the one if he survives, but there are plenty more coming behind him as well.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26454
1416. TropicalAnalystwx13
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:31 (GMT)
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
1415. TexasHurricane
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:31 (GMT)
Levi, what is your thought on this?

Member Since: 2.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
1414. moonlightcowboy
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:31 (GMT)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The TCHP across the Caribbean sea continues to increase due to several factors.

1) No tropical cyclone has passed through any part of the Caribbean sea since late June.
2) The NAO has been negative since earl August. A negative NAO usually leads to weaker trade winds which in turn causes less upwelling.
3) Cloud cover has been minimal thus allowing for even more heating of the ocean surface and deeper depths.


Figure 1. Notice the very, very large pool of 100 kJ cm-2. Also notice the increasing pool 150 kJ cm-2 in the southwestern Caribbean sea.

If environmental conditions are absolutely perfect, a stationary tropical depression could become a category 5 major hurricane in the pool of 120 kJ cm-2 waters in less than 48 hours.

Did anyone say "OUCH!", because I sure did!



This will be scary! (gonna borrow - thanks!)
Member Since: 9.07.2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
1412. Levi32
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:30 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Levi, look at #1258


It's possible, but it will have to last a while to give any significant effect. Wakes often take a long time to "heal" though so it may be the case. Interesting to say the least.

Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
Levi---do you have a forecast for Gaston?


Slow development, if any, for the next few days. There's too much dry air and subsidence around in the central Atlantic. The track should be predominantly west, towards the northern Caribbean, and the islands could get some rainfall out of this down the road. The track after that is uncertain, but if Gaston survives, he could easily threaten land. We'll have to see how he's looking when he reaches the Caribbean to determine whether he will develop, but right now conditions do not favor much progress.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26454
1411. usa777
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:29 (GMT)
Im glad Earl passed pretty much uneventfully through the area. Now lets all hope Gaston does the same. I look back on my experienc during Katrina and I like most on here find these storms fascinating and beautiful. I've actually read alot of posts from people that actually would like to experience a big storm. I'm sure there's plenty of people that post here that can assure you that you dont want any part of one of these storms. Even a cat 1!! It will change your life in was's that cant be easily explained. Lets all enjoy Gaston from a distance and pray it doesn't come close to anyone.
Member Since: 11.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
1410. hydrus
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:27 (GMT)
Quoting kmanislander:
Updated AVN. See the "reds" reappearing ?

Back later. Have a few errends to run

I can tell just by the sat pic you posted that Gaston is going to get organized rather quickly after leaving the dry air.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19497
1409. washingtonian115
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:25 (GMT)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The TCHP across the Caribbean sea continues to increase due to several factors.

1) No tropical cyclone has passed through any part of the Caribbean sea since late June.
2) The NAO has been negative since earl August. A negative NAO usually leads to weaker trade winds which in turn causes less upwelling.
3) Cloud cover has been minimal thus allowing for even more heating of the ocean surface and deeper depths.


Figure 1. Notice the very, very large pool of 100 kJ cm-2. Also notice the increasing pool 150 kJ cm-2 in the southwestern Caribbean sea.

If environmental conditions are absolutely perfect, a stationary tropical depression could become a category 5 major hurricane in the pool of 120 kJ cm-2 waters in less than 48 hours.

Did anyone say "OUCH!", because I sure did!
Ican here the jaws music getting louder,and louder.If Gaston decides to visit that side of the carribean,and conditions are perfect....well that's just not painting a pretty picture in m head.That could support a 190mph hurricane......but who knows...
Member Since: 14.08.2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15704
1408. SunnyDaysFla
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:23 (GMT)
Levi---do you have a forecast for Gaston?
Member Since: 19.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
1407. washingtonian115
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:22 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:


That is true....and I've often wondered what we may see at the back end of this year given that it's a La Nina, and with SSTs abnormally warm, cold surges into the United States could cause big problems in the Caribbean late in the year.
Levi don't look now but I see an area of low pressure about to exit the coast at a low lattitude over africa.Do you think that systems of that lattitude could still recurve?
Member Since: 14.08.2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15704
1406. TropicalAnalystwx13
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:22 (GMT)
Levi, look at #1258
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
1404. kmanislander
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:21 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:


That is true....and I've often wondered what we may see at the back end of this year given that it's a La Nina, and with SSTs abnormally warm, cold surges into the United States could cause big problems in the Caribbean late in the year.


Hi Levi, very true. Have to run now but will chat later.
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
1403. kmanislander
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:19 (GMT)
Updated AVN. See the "reds" reappearing ?

Back later. Have a few errends to run

Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
1402. MiamiHurricanes09
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:19 (GMT)
The TCHP across the Caribbean sea continues to increase due to several factors.

1) No tropical cyclone has passed through any part of the Caribbean sea since late June.
2) The NAO has been negative since early August. A negative NAO usually leads to weaker trade winds which in turn causes less upwelling.
3) Cloud cover has been minimal thus allowing for even more heating of the ocean surface and deeper depths.


Figure 1. Notice the very, very large pool of 100 kJ cm-2. Also notice the increasing pool 150 kJ cm-2 in the southwestern Caribbean sea.

If environmental conditions are absolutely perfect, a stationary tropical depression could become a category 5 major hurricane in the pool of 120 kJ cm-2 waters in less than 48 hours.

Did anyone say "OUCH!", because I sure did!
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1401. Levi32
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:19 (GMT)
Quoting kmanislander:


Come Oct. and Nov. we then have the cold fronts to worry about as several major hurricanes have spun up from lows on the tail end of these.


That is true....and I've often wondered what we may see at the back end of this year given that it's a La Nina, and with SSTs abnormally warm, cold surges into the United States could cause big problems in the Caribbean late in the year.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26454
1400. washingtonian115
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:18 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is ridiculous, we're at the top of the scale!

Just imagine if somethind gets in their.....I could already here the jaws music getting louder.That's insane.Another wilma like system is defentall not out of the question...
Member Since: 14.08.2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15704
1399. kmanislander
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:17 (GMT)
Quoting KanKunKid:


If I miss my guess, I believe that if a wave so much as FARTS in the Caribbean, it's going to be a monster! The pattern changed after Earl and those low lat storms now are more pointed west. No more fish turns mid Atlantic for awhile for them. Scary and exciting all at the same time! I think when I see a big catX heading toward me, the scale will tilt into the scary. Travel in this area is a cluster on a good day.


Come Oct. and Nov. we then have the cold fronts to worry about as several major hurricanes have spun up from lows on the tail end of these.
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
1397. TropicalAnalystwx13
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:16 (GMT)
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
1396. Levi32
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:16 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Good Morning to you too, Levi.

lol


Sorry, good morning, lol.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26454
1395. CybrTeddy
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:15 (GMT)
Anything that gets into the western Caribbean would really bomb out, look at the TCHP!
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23011
1394. TropicalAnalystwx13
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 16:15 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:
The Bay of Campeche seems mostly unlikely to see any development over the next 3 days. The thunderstorms are being generated by TD 11E, which has moved inland over the middle of Mexico from the eastern Pacific. Its circulation can be seen clearly on visible. The flow would support a northwest movement which would keep the depression mostly over Mexico, and although the center may get pretty close to the coast or even skirt the water, I doubt it will be able to develop.

However, what should be watched for is a dissipation of the main center and a reformation to the north over the Bay of Campeche, which is certainly possible, in which case it would be a different story as upper winds are quite favorable. But for now, if TD 11E's center remains intact, I don't think it's too big of a problem.


Good Morning to you too, Levi.

lol
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237

Viewing: 1443 - 1393

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Clear
41 °F
Selkeää