Category 2 Earl Passes the Outer Banks, Heads for Cape Cod

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 05:11 (GMT)

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver with your evening blog update. Earl continues to weaken, as he is now a category 2 storm.

Earl
As of 11PM EDT, Earl is a Category 2 storm with sustained winds of 105 mph. From the advisory, Earl is located at 33.8 N, 74.4 W, 115 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC and 570 miles south-southwest of Nantucket, MA. On average, Earl is currently moving north-northeast at 18 mph. Data from hurricane hunter flights show that Earl's pressure has risen, the minimum central pressure is now 951 mb. Satellite data (Fig. 1), WSR-88D radar data (Fig. 2) and the hurricane hunters describe Earl's eyewall as being open in the west, which is to be expected for a weakening storm.


Fig. 1 Estimated rainfall-rate of Earl taken at 11PM EDT 2 September 2010. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Lab


Fig. 2 Reflectivity image of Earl taken at midnight 3 September 2010. Doppler velocity scan showing the large-scale rotation of the storm.

Even though Earl's winds are declinling, he still covers a very large area. Hurricane force winds extend 70 miles from the storm center and tropical storm force winds can be found 205 miles away. 12 foot seas extend at least 220 nmi from the center in all directions and may reach out to 420 nmi in the southeast quadrant of the storm. The most recent estimate (930PM EDT) of Earl's integrated kinetic energy is 91 TJ, with a wind impact of 3.0 out of 6 and a storm surge impact of 4.7 out of 6.

Track/Intensity Forecast

NHC has not really altered their track forecast for this update. The track has been adjusted to the east by a small amount. After Earl is captured by the trough in the jet stream Thursday, he will complete his turn to the northeast and start moving more rapidly. At the same time, shear from the trough and cooler surface waters will furthur weaken Earl. This forecast weakening calls for Earl to be a category 1 storm when he passes Cape Cod on Friday and when he makes landfall in Nova Scotia Saturday.

Right now, it looks like Earl is staying out to sea as it passes the Outer Banks. It will pass by the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay Friday morning. Tropical-storm force winds will start in Nantucket, MA Friday afternoon, and hurricane-force winds will arrive by late Friday evening.

Winds Forecast
NHC puts out a very useful wind probability forecast. Cape Hatteras has a 99% chance of tropical-storm (TS) force winds, and according to our M ETAR history page, the winds only need to pick up slightly. Besides the Outer Banks, Nantucket, MA looks to be the place most likely effected by Earl, there is a 90% chance of TS force winds. With the eastward shift in Earl's track, the area of 30% chance of TS force winds doesn't go as far inland as it did Wednesday night.

Current Watches and Warnings
Hurricane warnings are valid for the coast from Bogue Inlet, NC to the NC/VA border and for eastern MA from Westport to Hull. Hurricane watches are in effect from the NC/VA border to Cape Henlopen, DE and for Nova Scotia from Medway Harbour to Digby. Tropical storm warnings and watches cover the Atlantic coast from Cape Fear to Nova Scotia.

For the latest information on watches and warnings for Earl in the US, visit our Tropical Alerts page. For people interested in watches and warnings for New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, visit Environment Canada's watches and warnings page.

Impacts
The primary threats from Earl are going to be surf, wind, and storm surge. The wind threat is going to be greatest in eastern MA since the passage of Earl is expected to bring hurricane-force winds to Nantucket. Eastern Long Island will have the greatest winds outside of MA, with estimated winds of 30-40 mph, with gusts to 55 mph. This is expected to bring down trees and cause trouble for older mobile homes. Elsewhere between the Outer Banks and New England, expect weak tropical storm force winds (less than 35 mph).

For storm surge, 1-2 feet are expected along the NJ coast, with 3 feet possible in some locations. Eastern Long Island may have 2-4 feet surges along the Long Island Sound and Petonic and Gardines Bay. The Boston NWS office is not concerned about storm surge, but they note 20-25 foot seas are possible off Nantucket.

Since Earl is going to be moving quickly, flooding from rain should be confined to poor drainage areas and urban area street flooding.

For more localized info, check out NWS's Hurricane Local Statements or our severe weather page.

What to do
It's time to batten down the hatches. People living in New England have less than 18 hours to finish their preparations. Be sure to listen to local media for statements from emergency management agencies and the local NWS.

Next update
Dr. Jeff Masters will have an update Friday morning.

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199. KBH
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:35 (GMT)
Now there is another view that unless people are reminded of how much damage was caused by hurricanes e.g. Katrina, etc. that they will not heed warnings and prepare for an impending storm/ hurricane
Member Since: 28.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
198. KBH
4. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:27 (GMT)
Quoting Cotillion:


For Hanna, that's about the only explanation and it has its merits. It doesn't excuse Gordon, while storms like Elena and Paloma are retired.

Stan was a bit like Hanna, really. He killed lots of people - around the same as Katrina - yet not by his doing, alone.

Emily did not cause a billion damage or more than 20 fatalities. I can sort of understand that.

Of course, the naming and retiring of names is mostly academic, though perhaps it can help cause closure for some people in the most damaging cases. Having people suffering from any sort of PTSD and then hearing the name come again mustn't be easy.

Your thoughts are similar to what I wrote in the blog earlier this week..have any of the met persons actually investigated the pyschological impact of using people's names to refer to storms? expecially on children who experienced an ordeal
Member Since: 28.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
197. breald
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 10:13 (GMT)
Quoting smuldy:
no thats just the extrapolated position; it shouldn't get too bad anywhere outside of nantucket barring a major shift back west in the track; and by too bad i mean stronger than weak to moderate TS conditions, which aren't all that different from a strong nor'easter


I was surprised to see the hurricane warning still posted for my area. I don't live far from horseneck beach.
Member Since: 28.05.2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
196. bcycsailor
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 10:08 (GMT)
Quoting BahaHurican:
I've stood outside in cat 2 winds, albeit in an area sheltered from the winds. Even so it is not fun, and I wasn't out there very long....


I looked at some video posted earlier from Earl's pounding of St. Maartan. and I thought how I would NOT want to be on a boat seeking the lee side. Mayhem.
Member Since: 24.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
195. nrtiwlnvragn
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 10:04 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10462
194. raggpr
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 10:04 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 11.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 245
193. smuldy
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 10:04 (GMT)
Quoting breald:



are you saying based on the speed of Earl and the rate he is turning north east you think he could make landfall in Horseneck beach area?
no thats just the extrapolated position; it shouldn't get too bad anywhere outside of nantucket barring a major shift back west in the track; and by too bad i mean stronger than weak to moderate TS conditions, which aren't all that different from a strong nor'easter
Member Since: 23.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
192. Cotillion
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 10:01 (GMT)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah. Paloma got retired because the gov't of the impacted countries requested. I guess Haiti's gov't thought Hanna was "old hat" by comparison with other systems. I wonder what a storm whould have to do to Haiti to cause them to request a retirement....


Yeah, which is fine. That's how it works and only really individual countries can judge how bad a particular storm has been.

Even looking at the stats, a billion damage to the United States - like Dolly - is considered not as bad as it once was. A billion damage to the rest of the Caribbean, particularly outside of Mexico as well, would be catastrophic.

As to the other part of the sentence, Haiti has suffered enough, I hope it doesn't have to find out.
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
191. BahaHurican
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 10:00 (GMT)
I've stood outside in cat 2 winds, albeit in an area sheltered from the winds. Even so it is not fun, and I wasn't out there very long....
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20712
190. BahaHurican
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 10:00 (GMT)
I've stood outside in cat 2 winds, albeit in an area sheltered from the winds. Even so it is not fun, and I wasn't out there very long....
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20712
189. BahaHurican
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 10:00 (GMT)
I've stood outside in cat 2 winds, albeit in an area sheltered from the winds. Even so it is not fun, and I wasn't out there very long....
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20712
188. BahaHurican
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:57 (GMT)
Yeah. Paloma got retired because the gov't of the impacted countries requested. I guess Haiti's gov't thought Hanna was "old hat" by comparison with other systems. I wonder what a storm whould have to do to Haiti to cause them to request a retirement....
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20712
187. Neapolitan
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:57 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


LOL

They don't try anymore. Most replacement names are utter crap nowadays.


Hey, my grandmother's name was Rina. It means peace...though you could also say it's like Katrina, only without the "Kat".
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13274
186. bcycsailor
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:56 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


I was actually standing outside during part of him. lol

But not during the worst.

Yeah, he was particularly destructive, and frankly, I think the Baton Rouge area was largely forgotten about, simply because New Orleans was spared the devastating flood disaster that was feared. That sickens me, since Gustav's main legacy for the United States was the damage he caused in the Baton Rouge metropolitan area. Indeed, we experienced our most severe and damaging windstorm since Hurricane Betsy in 1965.

Much of downtown Baton Rouge was left without electricity for at least three weeks, with some areas lacking it for a month.

I was one of the fortunate ones, getting power back in just five days. That was bad enough, and I can't imagine what the aforementioned folks had to endure.

Basically, my area (as well as myself), were ill-prepared for the damage this storm caused. It taught me to respect a Category 2 hurricane, that's for sure.


Thanks for sharing. It scares me sometimes how much we have come to rely on our electrical grid, and then when it goes...

As for standing outside during a Cat 2...I can see how that would rock until the neighbor's stuff started to take flight...oh, unless that all happened earlier. Anyway, sheesh.
Member Since: 24.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
185. Cotillion
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:54 (GMT)
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think Hanna wasn't retired because so much of its effects were predicated on the high level of saturation already engendered by the previous storms that impacted Haiti (Fay, Gustav). Additionally, with Ike coming just behind, it was difficult to separate Hanna effects from Ike effects for Haiti. They just needed 2 retire the entire '08 season for Haiti...

Emily '05, now, I don't understand either why that wasn't retired while Stan was....


For Hanna, that's about the only explanation and it has its merits. It doesn't excuse Gordon, while storms like Elena and Paloma are retired.

Stan was a bit like Hanna, really. He killed lots of people - around the same as Katrina - yet not by his doing, alone.

Emily did not cause a billion damage or more than 20 fatalities. I can sort of understand that.

Of course, the naming and retiring of names is mostly academic, though perhaps it can help cause closure for some people in the most damaging cases. Having people suffering from any sort of PTSD and then hearing the name come again mustn't be easy.
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
184. Cotillion
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:49 (GMT)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah but that one sounds like a warning already part Rita part Katrina. Somebody's got a sick sense of humor. Lol. But hopefully we won't make it to the R storm for a long time. Think its only been done like 3 times.


Twice, I think. Both were retired.

(You'd need to reach storm #17 to get 'R'. That's only been done twice in '95 and '05.

1969 had that many storms, but some were unnamed. 1887/1933 of course, did not have any names).
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
183. BahaHurican
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:49 (GMT)
Quoting Cotillion:


Yes, as well as Hanna in 2008.

Hanna killed more than Gustav, Ike, and Paloma combined.
I think Hanna wasn't retired because so much of its effects were predicated on the high level of saturation already engendered by the previous storms that impacted Haiti (Fay, Gustav). Additionally, with Ike coming just behind, it was difficult to separate Hanna effects from Ike effects for Haiti. They just needed 2 retire the entire '08 season for Haiti...

Emily '05, now, I don't understand either why that wasn't retired while Stan was....
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20712
182. AtHomeInTX
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:49 (GMT)
Quoting Cotillion:


'As a result, the Bermuda Weather Service allowed residents to suggest a replacement name, with the only rule being the name had to be a male name beginning with the letter "F", able to be easily pronounced, and not currently in use. The service received a list of over 30 names, including Forrest and Frodo, after the character in The Lord of the Rings.'

It was then narrowed down to Fred, Ford, and Flynn. They chose Fred, a bit of a copout considering we already had Frederic.

On the other hand, we can avoid all Hans Solo/Indiana Jones and Errol Flynn references.


And I can hear it already, "Run Forrest Run." Ugh! Lol.
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
181. breald
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:48 (GMT)
Quoting aspectre:
HurricaneEarl's heading had turned eastward to 3.1degrees north of NorthNorthEast
from it's previous heading of 5.9degrees east of dueNorth
H.Earl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was 17mph(~27.4km/h)

02Sep . 09amGMT - - 29.3n74.7w - - 145mph - - 928mb - - NHC.Adv.#32
02Sep . 12pmGMT - - 30.1n74.8w - - 145mph - - 932mb - - #32A
02Sep . 03pmGMT - - 30.9n74.8w - - 140mph - - 932mb - - #33
02Sep . 06pmGMT - - 31.7n75.2w - - 125mph - - 943mb - - #33A
02Sep . 09pmGMT - - 32.5n75.2w - - 115mph - - 947mb - - #34
03Sep . 12amGMT - - 33.0n74.7w - - 110mph - - 948mb - - #34A
03Sep . 03amGMT - - 33.8n74.4w - - 105mph - - 951mb - - #35
03Sep . 06amGMT - - 34.6n74.3w - - 105mph - - 955mb - - #35A
03Sep . 09amGMT - - 35.3n74.0w - - 105mph - - 955mb - - #36

Copy&paste 29.3n74.7w, 30.1n74.8w, 30.9n74.8w, 31.7n75.2w, 32.5n75.2w-33.0n74.7w, 33.0n74.7w-33.8n74.4w, 33.8n74.4w-34.6n74.3w, 34.6n74.3w-35.3n74.0w, bwi, 35.3n74.0w-40.6n73.49w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~26hours from now to HorseneckBeach,Massachusetts
southsouthwest of NewBedford



are you saying based on the speed of Earl and the rate he is turning north east you think he could make landfall in Horseneck beach area?
Member Since: 28.05.2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
180. AtHomeInTX
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:47 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


I was actually standing outside during part of him. lol

But not during the worst.

Yeah, he was particularly destructive, and frankly, I think the Baton Rouge area was largely forgotten about, simply because New Orleans was spared the devastating flood disaster that was feared. That sickens me, since Gustav's main legacy for the United States was the damage he caused in the Baton Rouge metropolitan area. Indeed, we experienced our most severe and damaging windstorm since Hurricane Betsy in 1965.

Much of downtown Baton Rouge was left without electricity for at least three weeks, with some areas lacking it for a month.

I was one of the fortunate ones, getting power back in just five days. That was bad enough, and I can't imagine what the aforementioned folks had to endure.

Basically, my area (as well as myself), were ill-prepared for the damage this storm caused. It taught me to respect a Category 2 hurricane, that's for sure.


Yes there were a couple of nasty cat 2's in 2008. I remember reading about the destruction in Baton Rouge. That was a surprise to many it sounded like.
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
179. Cotillion
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:46 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


???


'As a result, the Bermuda Weather Service allowed residents to suggest a replacement name, with the only rule being the name had to be a male name beginning with the letter "F", able to be easily pronounced, and not currently in use. The service received a list of over 30 names, including Forrest and Frodo, after the character in The Lord of the Rings.'

It was then narrowed down to Fred, Ford, and Flynn. They chose Fred, a bit of a copout considering we already had Frederic.

On the other hand, we can avoid all Hans Solo/Indiana Jones and Errol Flynn references.
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
178. KoritheMan
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:46 (GMT)
Good night guys. Have to wake up early tomorrow. Nice chatting tonight.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
177. KoritheMan
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:45 (GMT)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah but that one sounds like a warning already part Rita part Katrina. Somebody's got a sick sense of humor. Lol. But hopefully we won't make it to the R storm for a long time. Think its only been done like 3 times.


Yeah, I do think they should have picked a more responsible replacement name for Katrina and Rita. I think even the layman would recognize that.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
176. AtHomeInTX
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:43 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


LOL

They don't try anymore. Most replacement names are utter crap nowadays.


Yeah but that one sounds like a warning already part Rita part Katrina. Somebody's got a sick sense of humor. Lol. But hopefully we won't make it to the R storm for a long time. Think its only been done like 3 times.
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
175. KoritheMan
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:42 (GMT)
Quoting Cotillion:


Fabian's replacement was nearly Frodo.

Also, with Earl, if he unfortunately caused enough destruction to be retired, he'd be the first male 'E' name to have that. All the other 3 were female names, last in '85.

The next letter down the list to not be for a guy is 'O'. Which is far down the list as it is.

Useless trivia for you.



???
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
174. KoritheMan
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:42 (GMT)
Quoting bcycsailor:


Were you in a position to document what you experienced during Gustav? He was quite destructive if I remember correctly.


I was actually standing outside during part of him. lol

But not during the worst.

Yeah, he was particularly destructive, and frankly, I think the Baton Rouge area was largely forgotten about, simply because New Orleans was spared the devastating flood disaster that was feared. That sickens me, since Gustav's main legacy for the United States was the damage he caused in the Baton Rouge metropolitan area. Indeed, we experienced our most severe and damaging windstorm since Hurricane Betsy in 1965.

Much of downtown Baton Rouge was left without electricity for at least three weeks, with some areas lacking it for a month.

I was one of the fortunate ones, getting power back in just five days. That was bad enough, and I can't imagine what the aforementioned folks had to endure.

Basically, my area (as well as myself), were ill-prepared for the damage this storm caused. It taught me to respect a Category 2 hurricane, that's for sure.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
173. Cotillion
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:41 (GMT)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Try this again. Speaking of future seasons, not looking forward to 2011. Why would they replace RITA with RINA? That is just wrong. Lol.


Fabian's replacement was nearly Frodo.

Also, with Earl, if he unfortunately caused enough destruction to be retired, he'd be the first male 'E' name to have that. All the other 3 were female names, last in '85.

The next letter down the list to not be for a retired male name is 'O'. Which is far down the list as it is.

Useless trivia for you.

Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
172. KoritheMan
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:39 (GMT)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Try this again. Speaking of future seasons, not looking forward to 2011. Why would they replace RITA with RINA? That is just wrong. Lol.


LOL

They don't try anymore. Most replacement names are utter crap nowadays.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
171. aspectre
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:37 (GMT)
HurricaneEarl's heading had turned eastward to 3.1degrees north of NorthNorthEast
from it's previous heading of 5.9degrees east of dueNorth
H.Earl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was 17mph(~27.4km/h)

02Sep . 09amGMT - - 29.3n74.7w - - 145mph - - 928mb - - NHC.Adv.#32
02Sep . 12pmGMT - - 30.1n74.8w - - 145mph - - 932mb - - #32A
02Sep . 03pmGMT - - 30.9n74.8w - - 140mph - - 932mb - - #33
02Sep . 06pmGMT - - 31.7n75.2w - - 125mph - - 943mb - - #33A
02Sep . 09pmGMT - - 32.5n75.2w - - 115mph - - 947mb - - #34
03Sep . 12amGMT - - 33.0n74.7w - - 110mph - - 948mb - - #34A
03Sep . 03amGMT - - 33.8n74.4w - - 105mph - - 951mb - - #35
03Sep . 06amGMT - - 34.6n74.3w - - 105mph - - 955mb - - #35A
03Sep . 09amGMT - - 35.3n74.0w - - 105mph - - 955mb - - #36

Copy&paste 29.3n74.7w, 30.1n74.8w, 30.9n74.8w, 31.7n75.2w, 32.5n75.2w-33.0n74.7w, 33.0n74.7w-33.8n74.4w, 33.8n74.4w-34.6n74.3w, 34.6n74.3w-35.3n74.0w, bwi, 35.3n74.0w-40.6n73.49w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~26hours from now to HorseneckBeach,Massachusetts
southsouthwest of NewBedford
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
170. bcycsailor
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:37 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


I've been through several notable hurricanes, most recently Gustav in 2008.

But I agree. I would never ride out a hurricane stronger than a Category 2 on an island or a coastal area unless I absolutely had to.


Were you in a position to document what you experienced during Gustav? He was quite destructive if I remember correctly.
Member Since: 24.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
169. AtHomeInTX
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:36 (GMT)
Try this again. Speaking of future seasons, not looking forward to 2011. Why would they replace RITA with RINA? That is just wrong. Lol.
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
168. Cotillion
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:36 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Dr. Masters actually wrote a blog on this once, I think in late 2005 or early 2006, stating that he thinks it's some sort of conspiracy. I've never been able to completely ascertain if he was being sarcastic or not, but I'm guessing not, given the overall tone.


Well, she's back next year... Another try.

'E' names have been like that. Only 3 retired, despite being so high up in the lists (B is also like that, with only 3 as well.)

The male E names generally aren't too bad - Ernesto, Eduoard... though Earl is now bucking the trend. That said with Earl, he's done damage, but so far, he's spared the worst by far. Hopefully, he continues to do so until extratropical. The sooner, the better.

However, Erin, Erika, and Emily. Dems 3 meaaaaan women.

Rest of 2010:
Hermine
Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter

Names for 2011 and beyond
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
167. KoritheMan
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:30 (GMT)
Quoting bcycsailor:


Well, they are fascinating and troubling wonders of nature. I've only seen the devastation from afar, never been through anything stronger than a TS and some wicked gales, prairie t-storms, etc. But if I were on a small island with major at my door, I'd be quaking.


I've been through several notable hurricanes, most recently Gustav in 2008.

But I agree. I would never ride out a hurricane stronger than a Category 2 on an island or a coastal area unless I absolutely had to.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
166. KoritheMan
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:29 (GMT)
Quoting Cotillion:
Emily's interesting.

She's made landfall/direct hit as a major hurricane three times.

And she has never been retired. (1987, 1993, 2005).


Dr. Masters actually wrote a blog on this once, I think in late 2005 or early 2006, stating that he thinks it's some sort of conspiracy. I've never been able to completely ascertain if he was being sarcastic or not, but I'm guessing not, given the overall tone.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
165. bcycsailor
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:28 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm afraid that's very likely to happen. I doubt we'll see a storm free day until sometime in October.


Well, they are fascinating and troubling wonders of nature. I've only seen the devastation from afar, never been through anything stronger than a TS and some wicked gales, prairie t-storms, etc. But if I were on a small island with major at my door, I'd be quaking.
Member Since: 24.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
164. Cotillion
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:24 (GMT)
Emily's interesting.

She's made landfall/direct hit as a major hurricane three times.

And she has never been retired. (1987, 1993, 2005).
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
163. KoritheMan
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:23 (GMT)
Quoting Cotillion:


Yes, as well as Hanna in 2008.

Hanna killed more than Gustav, Ike, and Paloma combined.


Yeah, I wonder about that one too. And Emily from 1987 or 2005.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
162. Cotillion
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:21 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm also perplexed as to why Gordon in 1994 wasn't retired. Haiti or not, that was pretty bad.


Yes, as well as Hanna in 2008.

Hanna killed more than Gustav, Ike, and Paloma combined.
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
161. KoritheMan
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:21 (GMT)
Quoting smuldy:
24 hr out 0zgfs; 10-15kt shear for new wave right?


Yes.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
160. Cotillion
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:20 (GMT)
However, just noted:

1946 was the beginning of the cold PDO.

1950, the year of the major hurricane, was 4 years later.

2008 starts the next cold PDO.

2012 is 4 years later.

Scary.
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
159. KoritheMan
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:20 (GMT)
Quoting Cotillion:


Excellent!

I've been waiting for someone to pick up on that. Yes, that list has the fewest retired hurricanes - Keith was as well in 2000.

The last list that did had fewer retired hurricanes... was the 2005 list. And we know what happened there.

2012 isn't what bothers me. However, 2018?

I could see a 1950-redux.

(All an exceptionally long way out, of course. So, don't take it as a prediction, premonition or expectation).


I'm also perplexed as to why Gordon in 1994 wasn't retired. Haiti or not, that was pretty bad.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
158. Cotillion
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:14 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


mwahahaha

Also with regards to 2012, if El Nino develops then, it will have done so on List 4 of the Atlantic naming list. Not really sure what it is about that particular list in this basin, but it almost always fails to get itself going.

1982: El Nino, 5 storms
1994: El Nino, 7 storms, but 0 major hurricanes
2006: El Nino, completely busted forecast

And a lot of 1988, with the exception of Gilbert and Joan, was a bust too, even though that year had La Nina.


Excellent!

I've been waiting for someone to pick up on that. Yes, that list has the fewest retired hurricanes - Keith was as well in 2000.

The last list that did had fewer retired hurricanes... was the 2005 list. And we know what happened there.

2012 isn't what bothers me. However, 2018?

I could see a 1950-redux.

(All an exceptionally long way out, of course. So, don't take it as a prediction, premonition or expectation).
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
157. smuldy
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:14 (GMT)
24 hr out 0zgfs; 10-15kt shear for new wave right?
Member Since: 23.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
156. KoritheMan
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:11 (GMT)
Quoting Cotillion:


Yes, we will get some.

If the preliminary projections are right and La Nina extends into next year, El Nino around 2011-12 potentially (El Nino in 2012 - oh, won't the filmmakers be pleased...)


mwahahaha

Also with regards to 2012, if El Nino develops then, it will have done so on List 4 of the Atlantic naming list. Not really sure what it is about that particular list in this basin, but it almost always fails to get itself going.

1982: El Nino, 5 storms
1994: El Nino, 7 storms, but 0 major hurricanes
2006: El Nino, completely busted forecast

And a lot of 1988, with the exception of Gilbert and Joan, was a bust too, even though that year had La Nina.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
155. KoritheMan
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:09 (GMT)
Quoting bcycsailor:


With all of the vigorous pulses of extreme weather going on worldwide over the last few months, I'm wondering if the now returning MJO will usher in a train of storms we just don't want to see up close, especially Haiti.


I'm afraid that's very likely to happen. I doubt we'll see a storm free day until sometime in October.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
154. smuldy
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:08 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's not the dry air that's keeping development percentages down for that wave. Even before Gaston was dissipating, they mentioned nothing about the dry air.

It's because of 30 knots of easterly shear, which is unfavorable even if the wave is moving in the same direction as the shear.
but unless I am reading the shear map wrong, if it kept it's current heading it would be into moderate shear at the 24 hour mark, but it will hit the dry air from the SAL by then. Am I reading that wrong?
Member Since: 23.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
153. bcycsailor
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:06 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


There's more where that came from too, as we're likely to see Hermine over the next few days from the vigorous wave behind Gaston.


With all of the vigorous pulses of extreme weather going on worldwide over the last few months, I'm wondering if the now returning MJO will usher in a train of storms we just don't want to see up close, especially Haiti.
Member Since: 24.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
152. Cotillion
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:06 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Unless we get a strong El Nino like last year.


Yes, we will get some.

If the preliminary projections are right and La Nina extends into next year, El Nino around 2011-12 potentially (El Nino in 2012 - oh, won't the filmmakers be pleased...)
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
151. KoritheMan
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:05 (GMT)
Quoting smuldy:
I think we will see Gaston jump to 50-60% come 8am and I think we will see the wave behind it sitting at 20-30%. I think the wave would be higher were it not for the dry air that destroyed Gaston awaiting it, an expect some development down the road.


It's not the dry air that's keeping development percentages down for that wave. Even before Gaston was dissipating, they mentioned nothing about the dry air.

It's because of 30 knots of easterly shear, which is unfavorable even if the wave is moving in the same direction as the shear.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
150. KoritheMan
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:04 (GMT)
Quoting Cotillion:


La Nina and cold PDO will do that.

I don't think this will be a rare occurrence either for the next few years.


Unless we get a strong El Nino like last year.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
149. smuldy
3. syyskuuta 2010 klo 09:03 (GMT)
I think we will see Gaston jump to 50-60% come 8am and I think we will see the wave behind it sitting at 20-30%. I think the wave would be higher were it not for the dry air that destroyed Gaston awaiting it, an expect some development down the road.
Member Since: 23.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 519

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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