Earl: 3rd strongest hurricane on record so far north in U.S. coastal waters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 15:36 (GMT)

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Hurricane Earl strengthened significantly overnight, and its Category 4 140 mph winds make it the third strongest Atlantic hurricane on record so far north in U.S. coastal waters. Only Hurricane Esther of 1961 and Hurricane Connie of 1955 made it farther north in U.S. coastal waters at a higher strength. Both storms had winds 5 mph stronger than Earl--145 mph. One other Atlantic hurricane was stronger than Esther and Connie at a more northerly latitude--the second storm of 1922, which had winds of 150 mph. However, this hurricane was far out at sea, north of Bermuda.

Earl has made its turn to the north, and is headed for a close brush with North Carolina's Outer Banks. Rain bands from the hurricane are now visible on long-range Cape Hatteras radar, and these rain bands will begin to spread over coastal North Carolina this afternoon. Recent satellite imagery shows an extremely impressive major hurricane, that will be resistant to sudden changes in intensity.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Earl taken at 2pm EDT September 1, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 2am EDT (6Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, through Friday morning. This should allow Earl to maintain major hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, wind shear will rise to 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a Category 1 hurricane early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.


Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 9:30am EDT Thursday, September 2, 2010. Note the asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 18 mph to the north-northwest at the time. The highest contour has top winds of 110 kt (130 mph) surrounding the "X" on the NNE side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds in the left front quadrant (on the SSW side) were just 80 - 85 knots (92 - 97 mph.) Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Earl is a large hurricane, which gives it a higher potential for storm surge damage than a smaller hurricane with the same top winds. One measure of a storm's power, useful for gauging storm surge threat, is to measure the speed of the winds and multiply by the area over which those winds blow. This total is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Based on the storm's IKE, one can come up with a scale from 0 - 6 rating the storm's destructive power from its storm surge. A separate rating can be given to the destructive potential of the storm's winds. The IKE value of 99 Terrajoules for Earl, at 9:30am EDT today, gives its storm surge a destructive power of 4.9 on a scale of 0 - 6. Earl's winds have a similar destructive power, 4.9 on a scale of 0 - 6. Let's hope the right front quadrant of Earl, where the main storm surge would occur, stays offshore! For comparison, the small Category 5 Hurricane Camille of 1969 had an IKE of 80 Terrajoules, and the very large Category 2 Hurricane Ike of 2008 had an IKE of 116 Terrajoules, higher than Category 4 Earl's.

Impact of Earl on North Carolina
Earl's eye is expected to stay offshore of North Carolina. However, much of coastal North Carolina will experience tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph for a period of 12 - 18 hours beginning this afternoon or early this evening. Earl's expected radius of hurricane-force winds of 90 miles to the west may bring hurricane conditions to the Outer Banks, but probably not to mainland North Carolina. Earl's radius of tropical storm-force winds to the west, over land, will probably be about 150 miles, so locations from Wilmington to Norfolk could see sustained winds of 40 mph. Storm surge will likely be less than two feet along the North Carolina coast west of Cape Hatteras facing the open ocean, since winds will be offshore. However, a significant storm surge of 3 - 5 feet can be expected on the south side of Pamlico Sound, due to strong northerly winds. A 3 - 5 foot storm surge is also likely along the Outer Banks from Cape Hatteras northward 50 miles to Nags Head. NHC is giving a 10% chance that the storm surge will reach 7 - 9 feet along the coast near Nags Head. It is possible that Coastal Highway 12 out of the Outer Banks will be blocked by sand and debris, or washed out, resulting in a multi-day period where everyone on the Outer Banks will be stranded. Since Earl's forward speed will be about 20 mph as it passes Cape Hatteras, the winds on the hurricane's west side will be about 40 mph less than on the east side (Figure 2.) (I regret that I misstated this yesterday. To think about this, imagine a stationary hurricane with 120 mph winds on all sides. Now, put the hurricane in motion. The winds are still 120 mph on all sides, relative to a frame of reference that moves with the storm, but an observer on the ground will see 140 mph winds in the right front quadrant, and 100 mph on the left side.) The NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 13% chance of hurricane-force winds on Cape Hatteras, 1% for Morehead City, and no chance for Norfolk, Virginia.


Figure 3. NHC is giving a 10% chance that the storm surge will reach heights of 7 - 9 feet along the Outer Banks of North Carolina near Nags Head. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

Impact of Earl on New England
Residents in Eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and Southeast Massachusetts need to complete all of their hurricane preparations by early Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, winds will rise quickly. Earl's recent increase in strength means that New England will see a stronger hurricane than was expected. The latest track forecasts still keep the eye barely offshore, or have it passing over Nantucket and the extreme eastern tip of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. The 5am NHC intensity forecast calls for Earl to have top winds of 100 mph at 2am Saturday, when the storm is expected to be over or just offshore of the eastern tip of Cape Cod. Earl will be moving near 25 mph at that time, meaning that that top sustained winds on the north side of the eye, over land, will be 50 mph, and the winds will be 100 mph on the south side over water. NHC is giving a 10% chance that a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet will occur in Long Island Sound (Figure 4), and 2 - 3 feet along the south coast of Long Island. A small deviation in Earl's track to the left, resulting in a direct hit on eastern Long Island and Providence, Rhode Island, would probably be a $10+ billion disaster, as the hurricane would hit a heavily populated area and drive a 7 - 15 foot storm surge up Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay. The odds of this occurring are around 3%, according to the latest NHC wind probability forecast. The forecast is calling for a 28% chance of hurricane-force winds on Nantucket, 7% in Providence, 4% in Boston, 7% in Eastport, Maine, and 17% in Hyannis.


Figure 4. NHC is giving a 10% chance that the storm surge will reach heights of 3 - 5 feet from Long Island Sound to Southeast Massachusetts. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

Impact of Earl on Canada
Winds will begin to rise on the southwest coast of Nova Scotia early Saturday morning, and all preparations need to be completed by Friday night. By late morning Saturday, Earl is expected to make landfall somewhere between the Maine/New Brunswick border and central Nova Scotia. At that time, Earl will probably be a Category 1 hurricane. Earl will be moving at a very rapid 25 - 30 mph when it arrives in Canada, and regions on the right side of the eye can expect winds 50 - 60 mph greater than on the left side, due to the fast forward motion of the hurricane. It is unlikely that Earl will be as damaging as Hurricane Juan, the 2003 Category 2 hurricane which made a direct hit on Halifax, Nova Scotia, causing over $200 million in damage. Earl's impact is likely to be greater than 2008's Hurricane Kyle, the last hurricane to hit Nova Scotia. Kyle hit near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Kyle produced a storm surge of 2.6 feet, and did $9 million in damage to Canada. The NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 14% chance of hurricane-force winds in Yarmouth, and 4% in Halifax.

Beach erosion
Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves today and Friday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters. Waves are expected to reach 25 - 30 feet along the Cape Hatteras, North Carolina shore tonight. Beach erosion damage in the mid-Atlantic states will likely run into the millions, but will probably not be as bad as that suffered during Nor'easter Ida in November of 2009. That storm (the remains of Hurricane Ida that developed into a Nor'easter) remained off the coast for several days, resulting in a long-duration pounding of the shore that caused $300 million in damage--$180 million in New Jersey alone.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona is struggling due to high wind shear, courtesy of strong upper-level northerly winds from Hurricane Earl's outflow. Satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear--an exposed center of circulation, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to one side (the south side in this case). Wind shear from Earl and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status over the next two days. The shear may be strong enough to destroy Fiona, as predicted by the NHC. However, by this weekend, Earl may pull far enough away for shear to drop and Fiona to survive. It is possible Fiona may pose a threat to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday.

Gaston
Tropical Depression Gaston has lost most of its heavy thunderstorms this morning, as it battles dry air. Water vapor satellite images show a large area of dry air to the north and west of Gaston, and this dry air will be the dominant inhibiting factor for development for the next few days. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. Assuming Gaston can fight off the dry air--which seems likely, given the low shear--the storm should be able to intensify into a hurricane by Sunday, as predicted by the many of the intensity models. Gaston appears likely to threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday. Historically, 25% of all tropical cyclones at Gaston's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast.

Special Hurricane Earl Update At 4:30 pm EDT on the Weather Underground Broadcast Network
The Weather Underground Broadcast Network will air a special edition of the Daily Downpour featuring meteorologists Rob Carver, Tim Roche, Shaun Tanner, and myself. This live update will feature the most up-to-date information on this dangerous storm and its possible effects on the East Coast.

There will be a three ways to contact the show panelists:

1. Call 415-983-2634 to ask specific questions about anything tropical related.

2. Send an email to broadcast@wunderground.com, and your email may be read on the air.

3. The chat room on the Weather Underground Broadcast Network homepage will be monitored throughout the broadcast for any related questions.

Lastly, if you are along the East Coast somewhere that could be affected by Hurricane Earl, we want to hear from you during the broadcast. Tell us what local officials are doing to prepare for Earl, and how it is affecting you. Please call 415-983-2634 or email broadcast@wunderground.com with your experiences.

Listen to the live, special broadcast beginning 4:30 p.m. EDT, 1:30 p.m PDT, by going to the Weather Underground Broadcast Network.

Links to follow today
Cape Hatteras weather
Cape Hatteras radar

Next post
I'll have an update late this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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1494. WatchingThisOne
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 22:38 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 15.07.2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1259
1493. JerseyShoreGirl
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 22:30 (GMT)
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

If the eastward bend in track continues, I am thinking it could follow the right side of my forecast cone. That's a fairly nice distance east of the Jersey shore.
Thank you. I will certainly check back for the 8, and 11pm reports, and then again at 5am.
Member Since: 25.02.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
1492. TGTTX
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 22:28 (GMT)
Quoting NOSinger:
Everyone can have their opinion on the NHC...But I think they are close to nailing this one!! They may have been off a few hundred miles thru the lifespan of this storm, but it's not an EXACT science. In my opinion(that's all it is), they did another good job on this one...as well as Storm and Levi...Levi said yesterday that it was not gonna hold it's strenght due to dry air and he nailed it as well...great job guys...I know it's not over yet....but close...


Absolutely agreed. Kudos to NHC, Storm, and Levi. This is an amazing process, and I really admire the skill, patience, knowledge and objectivity these folks have to get it this well. Wow.
Member Since: 29.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 38
1491. bwt1982
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 22:24 (GMT)
Gatson is dead!
Member Since: 29.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 143
1490. NCHurricane2009
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 22:15 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
Definite turn to the east of north on the 2145UTC visible floater on Earl...Link


Yes, not the only one who saw it!

Quoting JerseyShoreGirl:
My local report suggests up to 50mph winds for tomorrow afternoon, and the winds will stick around until Saturday with 30mph. I will see if this changes in a few hours. I am curious to have an idea of how far off the coast of NJ the storm might be for Friday afternoon?


If the eastward bend in track continues, I am thinking it could follow the right side of my forecast cone. That's a fairly nice distance east of the Jersey shore.
Member Since: 15.09.2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
1489. NOSinger
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 22:12 (GMT)
Everyone can have their opinion on the NHC...But I think they are close to nailing this one!! They may have been off a few hundred miles thru the lifespan of this storm, but it's not an EXACT science. In my opinion(that's all it is), they did another good job on this one...as well as Storm and Levi...Levi said yesterday that it was not gonna hold it's strenght due to dry air and he nailed it as well...great job guys...I know it's not over yet....but close...
Member Since: 1.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 232
1488. JerseyShoreGirl
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 22:10 (GMT)
My local report suggests up to 50mph winds for tomorrow afternoon, and the winds will stick around until Saturday with 30mph. I will see if this changes in a few hours. I am curious to have an idea of how far off the coast of NJ the storm might be for Friday afternoon?
Member Since: 25.02.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
1487. Felix2007
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 22:06 (GMT)
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Hey, what's the deal Earl?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

Has anyone else noticed that Earl has been moving NE or NNE and wobbled east of 75W longitude? I thought it would keep going north along 75W longitude till it got near NC/VA border latitude, then bend more east. Well, this is slightly better news for Cape Hatteras and all the folks up and down the eastern seaboard (but slightly bad news for my forecast accuracy LOL, but as long as it good news for people, that's what counts).


Yup saw it on TWC don't know if it's accurate enough but the center did just wobble east of 75 degrees longitude. I hope he's not fooling us into thinking he's going away.
Member Since: 12.07.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 383
1486. IKE
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 22:03 (GMT)
Definite turn to the east of north on the 2145UTC visible floater on Earl...Link
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1485. bwt1982
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 22:03 (GMT)
Quoting ROBTX09:
tell that to the admin


POOF!!!
Member Since: 29.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 143
1484. UpperLevelLOL
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 22:02 (GMT)
Updated cone for Gaston

http://img.waffleimages.com/1d8f03ca5d51924a6c9dd8a466484638e8b4fd24/gastonforecast.jpg
Member Since: 1.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 134
1483. NCHurricane2009
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 22:01 (GMT)
Hey, what's the deal Earl?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

Has anyone else noticed that Earl has been moving NE or NNE and wobbled east of 75W longitude? I thought it would keep going north along 75W longitude till it got near NC/VA border latitude, then bend more east. Well, this is slightly better news for Cape Hatteras and all the folks up and down the eastern seaboard (but slightly bad news for my forecast accuracy LOL, but as long as it good news for people, that's what counts).
Member Since: 15.09.2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
1482. SiestaCpl
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 22:01 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I still say he looks really good



He still looks good, as 115 mph Cat3 storms are dangerous and "good"...now the last of his older inner eyewall is fading and the newer larger eye wall is taking over...will it take advantage of the Gulf Stream and reorganize further?

Nice to have him moving east of North as the western edge of his new eyewall is West of South from the OBX...going due north it would have run over the length of the Islands from Hatteras Light House North.
Member Since: 26.06.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 372
1481. katadman
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:59 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Do you like to spread misinformation during times of disaster?


Didn't you give a definition for that earlier, Kori?
Member Since: 7.09.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1081
1479. ncstorm
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:58 (GMT)
Quoting KanKunKid:


Thanks, I needed that.

No, it was as if your comment was saying, thanks to the NHC forecast, you were spared Earl's wrath. I mean, the NHC is good, real good! But they're not that good. Of course, I could have misunderstood what you were saying, but my first reaction was Pffft! Care to elucidate?


As far as NC, the NHC were on point with Earl when it counted, they may not have been exact but neither was ANYONE else, if you could do better, by all means, do so but right now I still thank GOD for the NHC. Finding faults in forecast points that were eithier a wee bit east or a wee bit west didnt cost any lives and at the end of that day, thats what really mattters!
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13483
1477. beell
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:57 (GMT)
Earl's exhaust vent is strong enough to deform the upper level flow. In a nice gentle arc from SW Maine to eastern KY. The trough will prevail, of course. Kinda cool.


Loop
Member Since: 11.09.2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15358
1475. Hurricanes101
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:56 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Do you like to spread misinformation during times of disaster?


I am stunned that people like this are not banned immediately from this blog

um not meant for you Koritheman, but the person you were responding too
Member Since: 10.03.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
1474. TropicalAnalystwx13
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:55 (GMT)
Past:

Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30300
1473. washingtonian115
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:55 (GMT)
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


That's what makes the tropics interesting, you're pretty sure you know what's going to happen, and then stuff like this is surprising. I had just issued a forecast on Gaston that now seems overdone. But, I did say I have a high uncertainty in the forecast with a disclaimer " This forecast intensity may be way too generous if dry air kills off Gaston. This forecast inensity may be too low if Gaston mixes out dry air more than expected and strengthens faster. This is a low-confidence intensity forecast." (Sigh), the wonders of the tropics.

I know Gaston still has a regeneration risk, but it sure looks like its unraveling fast (its going to be some work for it to come back). Still watch it though in the Lesser Antilles.
I think by the time Gaston makes it to the lesser antilies he may be a 50mph tropical storm.
Member Since: 14.08.2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15738
1472. KoritheMan
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:55 (GMT)
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
You all on the East Coast need to say a Prayer to Jesus or to Allah or as Stephen Hawkings said today, to the laws of physics, that Earl is taking a less threatening path.


inb4 ****storm
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19144
1471. NCHurricane2009
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:54 (GMT)
Quoting viman:
Earl may or maynot be a fish but I'll tell you what I'm coming up on my 4th day without electricity and it probably will be over a week before i get it. Fish or not he left his mark on the Virgin Islands...


Are you using your phone to blog, got a generator to keep running things at home :) ? I know if I had no power, I wouldn't be able to blog, wish I had a generator or good phone to be able to keep blogging if I had bad weather.
Member Since: 15.09.2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
1470. stormpetrol
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:54 (GMT)
well i really hope gaston is gone for good, but i have a feeling in day or 2 he'll return.
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
1467. HurricaneGeek
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:53 (GMT)
I don't understand any of the Earl-Fish remarks. Even if he were to dissipate this vary second, or go due EAST, he'd still NOT be a fish.
It has already affected many many people in the Islands.
Member Since: 10.05.2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
1466. PSLFLCaneVet
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:53 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
Going to have to break out my dvd of The Delicate Sound of Thunder. Thanks Ike, Flood. Made me realize how long it's been since I watched it. Skol!
Member Since: 23.07.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
1464. Headindaclouds
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:52 (GMT)
Winds 25mph sustained at Cape Point.
Member Since: 18.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
1461. Neapolitan
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:50 (GMT)
Quoting RecordSeason:
Complete waste of time watching this thing.


Yeah? You should write to someone and ask for your money back, since they made you watch it and all.
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
1459. TropicalAnalystwx13
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:50 (GMT)
I still say he looks really good

Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30300
1458. washingtonian115
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:49 (GMT)
Quoting bwt1982:
Happy to see Florida is in the clear with Gatson!!!
Really?.Your giving false information right now.You nor I won't actually know where Gaston will be in the future.
Member Since: 14.08.2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15738
1457. ConchHondros
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:49 (GMT)
Rare...here..."No one's really gonna to be free until nerd persecution ends."
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
1456. NCHurricane2009
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:49 (GMT)
Quoting washingtonian115:
The storm I'm surprised to see alive at the moment is Fiona.....Gaston is done with.He still has potential to be a threat down the road.


That's what makes the tropics interesting, you're pretty sure you know what's going to happen, and then stuff like this is surprising. I had just issued a forecast on Gaston that now seems overdone. But, I did say I have a high uncertainty in the forecast with a disclaimer " This forecast intensity may be way too generous if dry air kills off Gaston. This forecast inensity may be too low if Gaston mixes out dry air more than expected and strengthens faster. This is a low-confidence intensity forecast." (Sigh), the wonders of the tropics.

I know Gaston still has a regeneration risk, but it sure looks like its unraveling fast (its going to be some work for it to come back). Still watch it though in the Lesser Antilles.
Member Since: 15.09.2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
1455. viman
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:49 (GMT)
Earl may or maynot be a fish but I'll tell you what I'm coming up on my 4th day without electricity and it probably will be over a week before i get it. Fish or not he left his mark on the Virgin Islands...
Member Since: 12.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 375
1454. alexhurricane1991
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:49 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
I see a movement east of due north
Member Since: 8.04.2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2570
1453. KoritheMan
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:49 (GMT)
Quoting RecordSeason:
1422:

Huh?

The eye wall is non-existent and he is curving out to sea now.

Heck, NC is barely even going to get any weather at all, and at this rate neither is anyone else.


Earl's weakening, not dissipating.

As for the rest...



Cone says it all.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19144
1452. TropicalAnalystwx13
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:48 (GMT)
This is the reason Fiona is still a TS:

Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30300
1451. IKE
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:48 (GMT)
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1450. SLU
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:48 (GMT)
Notorious Cape Verde Hurricane parades.













Member Since: 13.07.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
1448. cheetaking
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:47 (GMT)
Radar shows that Earl is still stuck in the middle of an EWRC, and therefore will only keep weakening until the inner eyewall finishes collapsing.

Link
Member Since: 18.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 162
1447. ncstorm
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:47 (GMT)
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I am probably NW of where you live, in Raleigh, NC. Just overcast here, but I was a bit surprised at the very light rain that occurred here about an hour ago. I expected just clouds.

Earl has been good here, its been insanely hot, and the cloud cover has made it nice. Tomorrow though, its going to be insanely hot again. But, there's no use in complaining because I know the folks down east and up the eastern seaboard are going to have it worse.


Yeah the local news said it will be 95 here tomorrow..something about Hurricanes making the air unstable and hot..thank goodness we didnt lose power and had to endure those temps without air..the people up the coast hopefully will fare the same way as we did as far as the winds and rain
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13483
1446. Neapolitan
2. syyskuuta 2010 klo 21:47 (GMT)
Judging by this animation, pre-Hermine will have less SAL to deal with than Gaston, whoe was pretty much swaddled by it when he crawled out over the east Atlantic. The two waves coming off over the next few days may also have the same advantage; we'll have to see.

Click for larger image:
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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